| Lockdown exit strategy 12:39 - Apr 15 with 3976 views | Guthrum |
How can the Government (or anyone else) set out a lockdown exit strategy when we can't yet say where we are in the progress of C-19 in the UK, when we have little (non-Chinese) info on the effects of doing so? We have no timeline and no route map yet to base anything on. |  |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:23 - Apr 15 with 444 views | gordon |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:19 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
But, broadly, how do you go about unwinding a social distancing lockdown when you do not yet have a treatment or vaccine for the disease, nor do you have sufficient supplies of protective equipment for the general public? Is it even possible to remove the lockdown without provoking another outbreak?
How can people make plans without a timeline? |
We aren't waiting for a vaccine or an effective treatment, both are very long-term, and nothing more than possibilities. |  | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:24 - Apr 15 with 435 views | sparks |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:11 - Apr 15 by gordon |
I don't follow really - it isn't about a date, it's about broadly how we would do it - this is really important for lots of people to know, for making longer-term plans around businesses, work, travel etc. |
Which they cant properly do yet- because the parameters and issues are far from clear.
All sorts of planning and contingencies will be getting considered and worked on- but to propose some sort of grand plan now would be utterly foolish, wasteful- and likely to lead to complaints of all sorts when things change. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:27 - Apr 15 with 427 views | Andrew4445 |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:22 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
Agreed. But that will be going on behind closed doors (subject to the regrettable tendencies you refer to in your third paragraph*), not in the public domain as some journalists and now Starmer are demanding.
* I have heard similar things from friends in the Civil Service |
It will be but the intial plan happened behind closed doors and that was a bin fire due to the lack of expert review and testing. Publish the outline and let's see what the expert virologists think of its chances of success.
That is the problem with Ministerial involvement, they set the agenda but tend to come to the issues with lots of hobby horses. I working in HMT and HMRC so many of the mnisters were not experts in their field at all, but they had preconceived ideas and this meant dreadful outcomes. The only way to halt them was to shine a light on them and 'go out for consultation' - test it with the people who have to apply it. You got a lot of noise in reply to consultations but some of it was invaluable.
*apologies for the typing errors in previous posts, I am using my work laptop and keypad is dreadful* |  | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:28 - Apr 15 with 434 views | factual_blue |
'We will return to normal in a planned and structured way, step-by-step and following advice from experts. This will begin at an appropriate time, and will take account of best practice from other countries.'
boris, however, is likely to prefer 'At 9.00am tomorrow, Britain is open for business! Cripes! Rule Britannia! I am Churchill! Huzzah! |  |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:29 - Apr 15 with 420 views | Guthrum |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:19 - Apr 15 by lowhouseblue |
was it ever true / is it still true that the test they were initially using had a 30% false negative rate? or was that just a rumour? |
I've not heard anything as concrete as that. But, given in the UK the majority of people we test are those taken into hospital with strong C-19 type symptoms, plus some medical staff in close contact with them, a 69% negative result rate (the current average) seems suspiciously high.
Either the tests are not that reliable, or there is a lot of misidentification of severe symptoms going on. | |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:30 - Apr 15 with 417 views | Andrew4445 |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:24 - Apr 15 by sparks |
Which they cant properly do yet- because the parameters and issues are far from clear.
All sorts of planning and contingencies will be getting considered and worked on- but to propose some sort of grand plan now would be utterly foolish, wasteful- and likely to lead to complaints of all sorts when things change. |
It's not a grand plan though or anything set in stone. The whole point about announcing it should be to receive feedback and adjust as time goes on.
As was previosuly said, they had no plan for going into lockdown despite having a months notice from Europe and China. They need to demonsrate they have an inkling of how they see the way forward and they ned to not botch this like the first part or the ecnomic and societal damage will be even more extreme. | | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:31 - Apr 15 with 416 views | hampstead_blue |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 12:46 - Apr 15 by StokieBlue |
Exactly what I thought, seems a strange thing for Starmer to immediately be pushing.
SB |
Cheap shot for Starmer.
There was an interview on R4 yesterday with a chap on the Gov's strategy team. He was telling of experts flat out testing ideas crazy and sane. Game theory and other strategies are all getting hammered.
How on earth can Starmer come onto the Radio and demand a plan when we've not got there yet.
He's supposed to be bright! |  |
| Assumption is to make an ass out of you and me.
Those who assume they know you, when they don't are just guessing.
Those who assume and insist they know are daft and in denial.
Those who assume, insist, and deny the truth are plain stupid.
Those who assume, insist, deny the truth and tell YOU they know you (when they don't) have an IQ in the range of 35-49.
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:33 - Apr 15 with 407 views | lowhouseblue |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:29 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
I've not heard anything as concrete as that. But, given in the UK the majority of people we test are those taken into hospital with strong C-19 type symptoms, plus some medical staff in close contact with them, a 69% negative result rate (the current average) seems suspiciously high.
Either the tests are not that reliable, or there is a lot of misidentification of severe symptoms going on. |
looking on the web this was the story i'd heard:
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/false-negatives-covid19-tests-symptoms-as
no idea if it's a credible source. but if that's right basing policy around that test would be pretty hit and miss. [Post edited 15 Apr 2020 13:33]
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| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:33 - Apr 15 with 406 views | Guthrum |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:23 - Apr 15 by gordon |
We aren't waiting for a vaccine or an effective treatment, both are very long-term, and nothing more than possibilities. |
But how do you exit a lockdown when that immediately exposes the population to exactly the same risks which caused it to be imposed in the first place?
The only hope is that the disease dies down of its own accord, sufficiently that things can be relaxed. China might be a model for that, but their outbreak was mostly concentrated in one region, allowing that zone to be locked down much more tightly and for longer than if the whole country was under quarantine. | |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:36 - Apr 15 with 392 views | Andrew4445 |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:33 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
But how do you exit a lockdown when that immediately exposes the population to exactly the same risks which caused it to be imposed in the first place?
The only hope is that the disease dies down of its own accord, sufficiently that things can be relaxed. China might be a model for that, but their outbreak was mostly concentrated in one region, allowing that zone to be locked down much more tightly and for longer than if the whole country was under quarantine. |
Testing and then a period of local lockdowns when there is a flare up. Test that local population and contact trace thsoe who have it or have come into contact with people who have it.
This is going to go on for a while, like a big game of whack a mole. | | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:37 - Apr 15 with 383 views | monytowbray |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:36 - Apr 15 by Andrew4445 |
Testing and then a period of local lockdowns when there is a flare up. Test that local population and contact trace thsoe who have it or have come into contact with people who have it.
This is going to go on for a while, like a big game of whack a mole. |
To do that though we have to start, ya know, testing enough people. |  |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:40 - Apr 15 with 376 views | Guthrum |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:27 - Apr 15 by Andrew4445 |
It will be but the intial plan happened behind closed doors and that was a bin fire due to the lack of expert review and testing. Publish the outline and let's see what the expert virologists think of its chances of success.
That is the problem with Ministerial involvement, they set the agenda but tend to come to the issues with lots of hobby horses. I working in HMT and HMRC so many of the mnisters were not experts in their field at all, but they had preconceived ideas and this meant dreadful outcomes. The only way to halt them was to shine a light on them and 'go out for consultation' - test it with the people who have to apply it. You got a lot of noise in reply to consultations but some of it was invaluable.
*apologies for the typing errors in previous posts, I am using my work laptop and keypad is dreadful* |
A bit of an insurmountable problem, with our system of government.
Also, the moment they stick their heads above the parapet with a plan, it will come under a barrage of non-expert criticism from the media and rival politicians (plus scientists are human and have their own hobby-horses, too). | |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:41 - Apr 15 with 375 views | Andrew4445 |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:37 - Apr 15 by monytowbray |
To do that though we have to start, ya know, testing enough people. |
Indeed, almost as if the WHO advice for months has been 'test, test, test' | | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:41 - Apr 15 with 375 views | Darth_Koont |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:33 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
But how do you exit a lockdown when that immediately exposes the population to exactly the same risks which caused it to be imposed in the first place?
The only hope is that the disease dies down of its own accord, sufficiently that things can be relaxed. China might be a model for that, but their outbreak was mostly concentrated in one region, allowing that zone to be locked down much more tightly and for longer than if the whole country was under quarantine. |
"The only hope is that the disease dies down of its own accord, sufficiently that things can be relaxed."
We knew that from the start. So what is the plan now that we have a lot more data around the diseases and our healthcare resources along with the ability to do immunoassay testing?
What is the plan (with an element of detail) so people, businesses and public services can also make rough plans and be more ready? |  |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:42 - Apr 15 with 370 views | itfcjoe |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:19 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
But, broadly, how do you go about unwinding a social distancing lockdown when you do not yet have a treatment or vaccine for the disease, nor do you have sufficient supplies of protective equipment for the general public? Is it even possible to remove the lockdown without provoking another outbreak?
How can people make plans without a timeline? |
There isn't enough money to sit half the country in furlough for many more months, so there will have to be contingency plans in place.
We can't sit here for 18 months waiting for a vaccine with the Government picking up the tab |  |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:46 - Apr 15 with 348 views | gordon |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:40 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
A bit of an insurmountable problem, with our system of government.
Also, the moment they stick their heads above the parapet with a plan, it will come under a barrage of non-expert criticism from the media and rival politicians (plus scientists are human and have their own hobby-horses, too). |
So we shouldn't have a plan because it will be scrutinised? | | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:46 - Apr 15 with 340 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:42 - Apr 15 by itfcjoe |
There isn't enough money to sit half the country in furlough for many more months, so there will have to be contingency plans in place.
We can't sit here for 18 months waiting for a vaccine with the Government picking up the tab |
You will be released at intervals until you catch it and then you can move on. |  |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:48 - Apr 15 with 332 views | StokieBlue |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:46 - Apr 15 by Lord_Lucan |
You will be released at intervals until you catch it and then you can move on. |
C19 Lotto.
If your number comes up you're allowed to go about your business until you catch it or prove your immune.
SB |  | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:48 - Apr 15 with 330 views | Andrew4445 |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:46 - Apr 15 by gordon |
So we shouldn't have a plan because it will be scrutinised? |
Can't complain about it and pick holes in it if it doesn't exist. Winning. | | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:53 - Apr 15 with 319 views | Darth_Koont |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:40 - Apr 15 by Guthrum |
A bit of an insurmountable problem, with our system of government.
Also, the moment they stick their heads above the parapet with a plan, it will come under a barrage of non-expert criticism from the media and rival politicians (plus scientists are human and have their own hobby-horses, too). |
Although thet's what happened anyway with the herd immunity approach. The inability to discuss it as an option meant people reacted to it poorly - even when it's still a necessary part of the overall approach.
This situation meets the wisdom of crowds criteria when it's opened up to experts as well as people who will look at things differently. The danger with a medical approach that's being channelled by a political approach means a real risk of making the wrong choices. | |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:53 - Apr 15 with 317 views | sparks |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:46 - Apr 15 by gordon |
So we shouldn't have a plan because it will be scrutinised? |
No- we shouldnt have a premature plan without the proper knowledge and information, because it will just have unintended consequences and waste time. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:53 - Apr 15 with 317 views | Beckets |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:48 - Apr 15 by StokieBlue |
C19 Lotto.
If your number comes up you're allowed to go about your business until you catch it or prove your immune.
SB |
I'm reminded of the quote attributed to Dominic Cummings "herd immunity, protect the economy and if some old pensioners die, too bad". |  | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:54 - Apr 15 with 310 views | itfc_bucks |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:48 - Apr 15 by Andrew4445 |
Can't complain about it and pick holes in it if it doesn't exist. Winning. |
Strikes me that we should have the outline of a plan - "If things progress as we anticipate, the plan will be x. If things deviate from where we expect, the contingency is a,b,c". | | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:55 - Apr 15 with 306 views | gordon |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:42 - Apr 15 by itfcjoe |
There isn't enough money to sit half the country in furlough for many more months, so there will have to be contingency plans in place.
We can't sit here for 18 months waiting for a vaccine with the Government picking up the tab |
Of course not, there needs to be a mass testing system and effective PPE to loads of workers and potentially the general public, there needs to be plans for how social distancing is policed, and decisions about how important different sectors of the economy are.
The sooner the government start talking about their plans, the sooner people can start scrutinising and suggesting improvements etc - rather than Boris just appear one night to grandly announce that we're opening up the country again, with ensuing confusion, elation and disaster. | | | |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:56 - Apr 15 with 300 views | monytowbray |
| Lockdown exit strategy on 13:53 - Apr 15 by sparks |
No- we shouldnt have a premature plan without the proper knowledge and information, because it will just have unintended consequences and waste time. |
Like "Herd immunity"?
You seemed pretty happy about that approach at the time despite all evidence. | |
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