| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places 08:19 - May 8 with 4904 views | itfcjoe |
https://theathletic.co.uk/1800891/2020/05/08/leagueone-league-two-efl-ppg-covent
The English Football League will next week tell clubs in Leagues One and Two there is no chance of playing any more games this season and ask them to vote on a method to decide promotion and relegation.
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The Athletic understands the EFL board has already received several proposals from clubs, with the current favourite being a points-per-game (PPG) model weighted to reflect how many games the teams have played home and away.
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The weighted PPG method does not change the top three in League One at all, meaning Coventry City would be crowned champions, with Rotherham United and Oxford United joining them in the Championship next season. The current bottom three – Tranmere Rovers, Southend United and Bolton Wanderers – would still be the bottom three, although Bolton would climb one spot, leaving Southend in last place.
In League Two, Swindon Town would leapfrog Crewe Alexandra into first place, with Plymouth Argyle staying in third but Cheltenham Town climbing over Exeter City to claim the final promotion spot. Stevenage Borough would remain in last place, despite the seven-point deduction Macclesfield Town received on Thursday for failing to fulfill a fixture or pay their players on time.
Other ideas being floated:
These include using the current tables to settle the finishing positions, a non-weighted PPG model and an idea to only count the first half of the season, which would be the first 22 games in League One and 23 games in League Two.
The bit in bold would be an absolutely mental way for us to get promoted. |  |
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:01 - May 8 with 1455 views | Radlett_blue |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 09:14 - May 8 by itfcjoe |
I think the problem with looking at strength of opposition it is then subjective whereas a pure home vs away comparison shows the historic neutral data.
I wonder wheter with it being so tight between Exeter and Cheltenham if there is any merit for a play off for that game if that is the one thing that changes between pure PPG and H/A PPG? |
A play-off is the one thing that isn't going to happen.I'm sure the lower leagues will agree to end the season shortly. This is down to financial reality. Then watch out for the huge number of out of contract players, probably with few takers given the huge financial uncertainty faced by the Football League. |  |
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:06 - May 8 with 1450 views | IpswichKnight |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 10:49 - May 8 by Guthrum |
Unfortunately, there's no such thing as a mathematical model which can predict the outcome of football matches anywhere near accurately. Too much is down to chance: Team/player morale on the day, the bounce of a ball, if someone's foot slips, if a defender is distracted, or a striker is at the vital moment, managerial brainstorms (bad or good), which way the wind is blowing, the weather generally, what someone ate for breakfast ... so many unquantifiable factors.
If such a thing did exist, betting companies would be very much poorer. [Post edited 8 May 2020 11:10]
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Don't forget if Clive Thomas is the referee then it's stone cold banker that we will lose! |  | | |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:10 - May 8 with 1451 views | Trequartista |
Do you count the first 22 games of the season or the first game against each opposition? They are not the same thing. |  |
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:19 - May 8 with 1441 views | PJH |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:06 - May 8 by IpswichKnight |
Don't forget if Clive Thomas is the referee then it's stone cold banker that we will lose! |
Except he was referee when we beat WBA 3-1 at Highbury in 1978. |  | | |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:29 - May 8 with 1427 views | itfcjoe |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:10 - May 8 by Trequartista |
Do you count the first 22 games of the season or the first game against each opposition? They are not the same thing. |
It's the first game against every other team, so not the first 22 - we played Gillingham twice before we played Oxford | |
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:31 - May 8 with 1421 views | JakeITFC |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 10:49 - May 8 by Guthrum |
Unfortunately, there's no such thing as a mathematical model which can predict the outcome of football matches anywhere near accurately. Too much is down to chance: Team/player morale on the day, the bounce of a ball, if someone's foot slips, if a defender is distracted, or a striker is at the vital moment, managerial brainstorms (bad or good), which way the wind is blowing, the weather generally, what someone ate for breakfast ... so many unquantifiable factors.
If such a thing did exist, betting companies would be very much poorer. [Post edited 8 May 2020 11:10]
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It’s because these exist that bookmakers aren’t very much poorer! |  | | |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:41 - May 8 with 1417 views | Guthrum |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:31 - May 8 by JakeITFC |
It’s because these exist that bookmakers aren’t very much poorer! |
Tho those alogrithms are more about predicting who punters think will win and adjusting the odds accordingly. |  |
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:53 - May 8 with 1403 views | Trequartista |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:29 - May 8 by itfcjoe |
It's the first game against every other team, so not the first 22 - we played Gillingham twice before we played Oxford |
Why is it being abandoned if Germany are starting up this month? Can it not be started behind closed doors next month - they've waited all this time and now we're going to be coming out of lockdown they've suddenly given up? [Post edited 8 May 2020 11:53]
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 12:25 - May 8 with 1368 views | Superblue95 |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:29 - May 8 by itfcjoe |
It's the first game against every other team, so not the first 22 - we played Gillingham twice before we played Oxford |
Would that equate to every team having played 11 home games and 11 away games? Can’t imagine it would so cause for more complaints there.
Not that it matters as it won’t be the method used for settling the season. Weighted PPG seems the fairest. |  |
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 12:31 - May 8 with 1359 views | PhilTWTD |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:29 - May 8 by itfcjoe |
It's the first game against every other team, so not the first 22 - we played Gillingham twice before we played Oxford |
Looking at it, I think there's only a difference for us and Fleetwood towards the top of the table at that point and our points don't change and they end up with fewer than from the literal first 22. If someone wants to check my working, feel free. |  | | |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 12:35 - May 8 with 1354 views | itfcjoe |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:53 - May 8 by Trequartista |
Why is it being abandoned if Germany are starting up this month? Can it not be started behind closed doors next month - they've waited all this time and now we're going to be coming out of lockdown they've suddenly given up? [Post edited 8 May 2020 11:53]
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Because pitting games on is going to be expensive and difficult logistically, and there isn’t the money tiers 3 and 4 to worry about it | |
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 12:40 - May 8 with 1340 views | gainsboroughblue |
Surely if PPG is applied, Wycombe finish third not Oxford? |  |
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 12:53 - May 8 with 1328 views | PhilTWTD |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 12:35 - May 8 by itfcjoe |
Because pitting games on is going to be expensive and difficult logistically, and there isn’t the money tiers 3 and 4 to worry about it |
Coronaviris testing as well, apparently £150 each per test with 10s of thousands required across the divisions. | | | |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 13:16 - May 8 with 1298 views | Radlett_blue |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:19 - May 8 by PJH |
Except he was referee when we beat WBA 3-1 at Highbury in 1978. |
Thomas must have had a stinker that day. | |
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 13:23 - May 8 with 1288 views | Vaughan8 |
Ive all been for waiting it out and finishing the season. I know this causes all sorts if problems re contracts, sponsors etc.
However, I cant see the new season starting in August, and if it does it will be without fans.
The next fairest way is to just void this season. No promotion or relegation.
Personally I think this is the worse way.
If you take say tranmere, on a roll winning 3 games in xa row or whatever, and the teams above them plummeting. In all likelihood they would overtake the others and get safe.
No way I guess is "fair", I just personally think this is the worst option. | | | |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 13:43 - May 8 with 1270 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 10:45 - May 8 by itfcjoe |
On a second look, when you think about that method is does seem to doubly punish teams.
We've got a PPG at home of 1.3ish, that means for the remaining home games we get given 6.5 points - despite playing Bolton, Southend and MK who have the worst away records in the league, plus Rochdale.
I'm sure there are other sides in similar position where it matters.
Think there needs to be some form of stregth of schedule comparison, i.e. a formula which looks at average home form vs your opponents average away form as otherwise may as well just go strict ppg |
Personally I’m not a fan of going down that road - if you’re going to weight the opposition then you may aswell go the whole hog of doing statistical simulations at which point you’re basically computerising the rest of the season. That would likely lead to some significant changes in position based on theory rather than actual results and open a huge can of worms
Plus realistically you’re never going to get anything close to universal agreement on a model that complicated
If you’re going to declare the season complete there’s basically 5 options of doing so ranging from basing solely on results so far to simulating the rest of the season:
1) literally take the tables as they are now. No projection whatsoever but inherently unfair as some teams have played more games than others
2) based on straight ppg. Could argue this projects teams achieving the same ppg but essentially you are just ordering the table based on ppg so far
3) base on ppg weighting for home and away. This is where you start to project as to do this you have to extrapolate to 44 games, but the measure is logical and essentially still basing on the actual ppg to date
4) extrapolate ppg with weighting for opposition. This is where you really start to get into projecting results territory - and deciding the exact weighting is ultimately subjective
5) full statistical simulation which is a full blown projection
I think 2 or 3 are the least worst options for me - anything past that is straying too far into projecting results rather than basing on actual results on the pitch |  |
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 14:22 - May 8 with 1253 views | gainsboroughblue |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 13:43 - May 8 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
Personally I’m not a fan of going down that road - if you’re going to weight the opposition then you may aswell go the whole hog of doing statistical simulations at which point you’re basically computerising the rest of the season. That would likely lead to some significant changes in position based on theory rather than actual results and open a huge can of worms
Plus realistically you’re never going to get anything close to universal agreement on a model that complicated
If you’re going to declare the season complete there’s basically 5 options of doing so ranging from basing solely on results so far to simulating the rest of the season:
1) literally take the tables as they are now. No projection whatsoever but inherently unfair as some teams have played more games than others
2) based on straight ppg. Could argue this projects teams achieving the same ppg but essentially you are just ordering the table based on ppg so far
3) base on ppg weighting for home and away. This is where you start to project as to do this you have to extrapolate to 44 games, but the measure is logical and essentially still basing on the actual ppg to date
4) extrapolate ppg with weighting for opposition. This is where you really start to get into projecting results territory - and deciding the exact weighting is ultimately subjective
5) full statistical simulation which is a full blown projection
I think 2 or 3 are the least worst options for me - anything past that is straying too far into projecting results rather than basing on actual results on the pitch |
Option 2 for me. It's pretty much what other leagues have done. I don't buy this home and away weighting thing. Some teams significantly play better away from home.
The Championship can end as it is with no amendments.
League One ends:
1. Coventry
2. Rotherham
3. Wycombe
4. Oxford
5. Portsmouth
6. Fleetwood
21. Tranmere
22. Southend
23. Bolton
We hit the dizzy heights of 11th.
League Two
1. Swindon
2. Crewe
3. Plymouth
4. Cheltenham
24. Stevenage [Post edited 8 May 2020 14:24]
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 16:01 - May 8 with 1215 views | Trequartista |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 12:35 - May 8 by itfcjoe |
Because pitting games on is going to be expensive and difficult logistically, and there isn’t the money tiers 3 and 4 to worry about it |
They knew that in March, what have they been waiting for? Can't they just stick a couple of quid on the pay per view match tickets? Just so much negativity.
Won't they lose more money not playing these games? There will be no gate receipts and season ticket holders will want some refunds?
[Post edited 8 May 2020 16:06]
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 16:06 - May 8 with 1205 views | ITFC_Forever |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 13:43 - May 8 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
Personally I’m not a fan of going down that road - if you’re going to weight the opposition then you may aswell go the whole hog of doing statistical simulations at which point you’re basically computerising the rest of the season. That would likely lead to some significant changes in position based on theory rather than actual results and open a huge can of worms
Plus realistically you’re never going to get anything close to universal agreement on a model that complicated
If you’re going to declare the season complete there’s basically 5 options of doing so ranging from basing solely on results so far to simulating the rest of the season:
1) literally take the tables as they are now. No projection whatsoever but inherently unfair as some teams have played more games than others
2) based on straight ppg. Could argue this projects teams achieving the same ppg but essentially you are just ordering the table based on ppg so far
3) base on ppg weighting for home and away. This is where you start to project as to do this you have to extrapolate to 44 games, but the measure is logical and essentially still basing on the actual ppg to date
4) extrapolate ppg with weighting for opposition. This is where you really start to get into projecting results territory - and deciding the exact weighting is ultimately subjective
5) full statistical simulation which is a full blown projection
I think 2 or 3 are the least worst options for me - anything past that is straying too far into projecting results rather than basing on actual results on the pitch |
It’s extremely difficult, especially as L1 is so tight from 2nd to 8th.
Darragh is already having a strop about it all, if they are not able to play, then option 2 or 3. |  |
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 16:15 - May 8 with 1189 views | Darth_Koont |
Isn't there some precedent for this with coin tosses to decide teams that go through in certain competitions? Or has all of that been removed from FIFA/FA competition rules as I can't seem to find any current references?
Either way, a weighted PPG seems a reasonable and fair way to resolve things and certainly better than the coin toss or drawing of lots that we've seen in the past. |  |
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| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 18:38 - May 8 with 1103 views | Radlett_blue |
| Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 16:06 - May 8 by ITFC_Forever |
It’s extremely difficult, especially as L1 is so tight from 2nd to 8th.
Darragh is already having a strop about it all, if they are not able to play, then option 2 or 3. |
League 1 & 2 will not be completing the season. Whatever solution is agreed won't please everyone, but points per game is the most defensible way to go. However, getting promoted to the Championship isn't financially massive & all the football league clubs are going to be unable to pay their players without crowds so it's a bit like bald men fighting over a comb. | |
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