| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today 08:12 - May 28 with 6759 views | Steve_M |
The bleak numbers should not hide the number of individual tragedies within, years of productive life lost, people unable to say goodbye to relatives or mourn them properly.
With an important caveat for those countries who are lying about deaths the UK has the worst per capita death toll, and the second highest in globally.
https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0
Should be free to read. |  |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 13:59 - May 28 with 1851 views | BrixtonBlue |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 13:34 - May 28 by lowhouseblue |
no, the last 5 years have taught me that tribal affiliation is pretty brainless.
starmer is a good thing - a starmer government would be much better than what we now have.
but at a time of a once in a century national crisis i am not going to attack the uk government just because they're tories, or just because of brexit. [Post edited 28 May 2020 13:38]
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We have the worst death toll in Europe, so we clearly did something wrong. The blame lies with either the scientists who advised the government or the government themselves. Amazing that you are one of the few who are giving the government the benefit of the doubt. Is this based on how great they've been at everything else?! |  |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:03 - May 28 with 1838 views | itfcjoe |
I can't remember the exact timeline - but at this date pubs, restaurants, gyms etc were still open - they weren't properly shut until the following week.
Our lockdown was never as severe as some others, but there was a lot of early talk of asking people not to do things rather than telling them which just didn't work at all |  |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:04 - May 28 with 1835 views | lowhouseblue |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 13:59 - May 28 by BrixtonBlue |
We have the worst death toll in Europe, so we clearly did something wrong. The blame lies with either the scientists who advised the government or the government themselves. Amazing that you are one of the few who are giving the government the benefit of the doubt. Is this based on how great they've been at everything else?! |
"We have the worst death toll in Europe, so we clearly did something wrong."
that doesn't actually follow. there may be a whole host of reasons why our death toll is high. population density, urbanisation, global integration, regional integration, mass transport systems, demographics, the initial pattern of contagion being highly dispersed. not every crisis is about blame. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:06 - May 28 with 1826 views | Darth_Koont |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 13:54 - May 28 by lowhouseblue |
this is about covid-19 not brexit. |
Yes, dear. It's an example of the bigger picture as you know.
But if you want something more directly related then we can assess the mismanagement of the nation's health which certainly includes its preparedness for a pandemic.
What do you reckon? Successive governments have done well or taken their eye off the ball in the name of the free market? |  |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:07 - May 28 with 1818 views | Libero |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:04 - May 28 by lowhouseblue |
"We have the worst death toll in Europe, so we clearly did something wrong."
that doesn't actually follow. there may be a whole host of reasons why our death toll is high. population density, urbanisation, global integration, regional integration, mass transport systems, demographics, the initial pattern of contagion being highly dispersed. not every crisis is about blame. |
Probably the first sensible, fair and concise point you've made in this thread. |  | | |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:08 - May 28 with 1815 views | BrixtonBlue |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:04 - May 28 by lowhouseblue |
"We have the worst death toll in Europe, so we clearly did something wrong."
that doesn't actually follow. there may be a whole host of reasons why our death toll is high. population density, urbanisation, global integration, regional integration, mass transport systems, demographics, the initial pattern of contagion being highly dispersed. not every crisis is about blame. |
Jesus, you even sound like a Tory when making excuses.
How are we hugely different to most of the countries in mainland Europe?
As the OP says, the UK has the worst per capita death toll, and the second highest globally.
You're seriously suggesting there was nothing wrong with our approach?! | |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:10 - May 28 with 1800 views | Libero |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:08 - May 28 by BrixtonBlue |
Jesus, you even sound like a Tory when making excuses.
How are we hugely different to most of the countries in mainland Europe?
As the OP says, the UK has the worst per capita death toll, and the second highest globally.
You're seriously suggesting there was nothing wrong with our approach?! |
In fairness to lowie those are all relevant potential factors, it of course doesn't mitigate the fact there has also been failings but as of yet we don't know how large a part what played in order to get us where we are. | | | |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:14 - May 28 with 1793 views | Kievthegreat |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 13:36 - May 28 by TJS |
My gut feeling was that the timing of the lockdown was everything. The worst hit countries (UK, Italy and Spain) recorded their first cases at the end of January.
Italy and Spain locked down earlier than us and had stricter rules.
I also think we probably have a lot more elderly people in residential homes than Spain and Italy where older relatives tend to live more with family (although I may be wrong).
This may account for the difference between UK, Italy and Spain.
It was a full month before the first cases were recorded in a lot of other European countries and places like New Zealand. As a result It was a lot easier for them to make the decision to shut down their economies with effectively 4 weeks of hindsight.
I also think mega-city infrastructure in places like London, New York and Paris may also have been a factor. [Post edited 28 May 2020 13:37]
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I think some of the timings are slightly off. Italy and Spain had large outbreaks (rather than low numbers of isolated cases) weeks ahead of the UK. We had an opportunity to lockdown earlier then we did and had warning of what was going on in Italy. Granted places like NZ had better warning (and a more isolated Geographical location), but I don't think it's fair to characterise us as having little warning. I got ill (presumably from Corona, but never tested because not severe enough ) and was off work, and then still got back in the office before lockdown (until working from home could be resolved a few days later). The entire discussion for a whole week was "why have we not locked down yet? It's crazy!". Eventually we locked down, but that delay, when it was obvious things were serious, is likely to have caused 10,000s of deaths.
Still for me the worst country's reaction was the US. They had a significant cluster of deaths in Seattle back in February, but a lot of the country only reacted in earnest when New York got really hammered. They had lots of warning but some places were appalling slow to react (because much was left to governors so you ended up with disparate rules and Trump was floundering about).
EDIT: The deaths in Seattle were Feb, not Jan as originally stated. [Post edited 28 May 2020 14:25]
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:14 - May 28 with 1787 views | lowhouseblue |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:08 - May 28 by BrixtonBlue |
Jesus, you even sound like a Tory when making excuses.
How are we hugely different to most of the countries in mainland Europe?
As the OP says, the UK has the worst per capita death toll, and the second highest globally.
You're seriously suggesting there was nothing wrong with our approach?! |
"Jesus, you even sound like a Tory when making excuses. "
you and dk can clearly only see this covid-19 crisis in terms of tories and anti-tories. or indeed for dk leavers v. remainers. it's the ultimate in tribal dumbing down. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:27 - May 28 with 1766 views | Herbivore |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 13:52 - May 28 by lowhouseblue |
as the thread discusses, that depends on whether or not they have followed the expert advice. |
Following the expert advice is a somewhat vague platitude. Advisers advise, but the strategic decisions are ultimately political ones. It's conceivable that epidemiological advice was to shut down straight away, advice from behavioural psychologists warned of lockdown fatigue, and economic advice is that every day under lockdown costs x amount to the economy. That is all perfectly reasonable but doesn't point in one clear direction, so the government interprets the advice and inevitably does so through a filter of its own priorities too.
Now, I feel we know enough already to say the govenement has done a poor job. Our version of lockdown was made official on the 26th of March though it was announced on the 23rd and more or less in place from then. We had a week prior to that in some kind of limbo where everything remained open. That looked indecisive at the time and it appears now some time later that the indecision cost lives.
At other points messaging hasn't been clear, in particular around who should and shouldn't go to work and whether not using public transport is more or less important than getting back to work. That's not to mention how vague 'Stay Alert' is as a public health slogan in the midst of a pandemic.
We also missed out on the EU ventilator scheme due to incompetence. We lacked adequate and sufficient PPE at the start of the pandemic, and generally were undeprepared despite the fact that pandemic planning has taken place in the UK and despite us having 2-3 weeks of time on the rest of Europe to learn from any mistakes they may have made.
We then have the lack of preparedness of care homes and the releasing of elderly patients back to care home from hospitals were Covid-19 was present and sometimes without knowing whether that individual was infected. Not enough was done to protect them.
And now we have the government choosing to back an adviser that flouted lockdown guidelines and regulations, totally undermining public health messages. Many scientists have publicly expressed their concerns about this.
I am not sure what evidence you are waiting for to conclude that the govenement has done a bad job. The highest mortality rate in the world despite us having extra time to plan and prepare should be a pretty big indicator. There is evidence at every step of poor planning, muddled thinking, or confused messaging. |  |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:29 - May 28 with 1756 views | jaykay |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 11:52 - May 28 by BrixtonBlue |
I didn't say you said that, I asked you a question. |
maybe he didn't see the ? at the end of your post |  |
| forensic experts say footers and spruces fingerprints were not found at the scene after the weekends rows |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:31 - May 28 with 1760 views | Herbivore |
No enforceable restrictions were brought in on the 16th. Not one. You keep trying to rewrite history, but everything remained open that week and it was a full week later that our version of lockdown started. | |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:31 - May 28 with 1761 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
There is a clear uptick in every one of those graphs except Scotland is there not?
Should that not be worrying?
It doesn't show on any of the Government graphs yet does it? |  |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:43 - May 28 with 1733 views | Swansea_Blue |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:31 - May 28 by Herbivore |
No enforceable restrictions were brought in on the 16th. Not one. You keep trying to rewrite history, but everything remained open that week and it was a full week later that our version of lockdown started. |
Quite right.
On 15th March Hancock advised over 70s that they'd be asked to stay at home for 3 months (voluntary).
On 16th March Johnson advised people to work from home if possible, avoid non-essential travel and going to pubs/clubs, etc.
On 20th March Johnson ordered pubs, clubs, gyms to close
On 23rd March Johnson announces lockdown -that's the first time the tone switched from advice to an instruction.
On 25th March the Coronavirus Act 2020 is passed giving Police powers to enforce guidelines announced on 23rd.
A lot of people and organisations were minimising activities after the 16th March, but many more weren't. That's why there was a massive hoohar at the time around it with people pointing the other countries' responses and calling for us to go much further. |  |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:45 - May 28 with 1727 views | Libero |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:31 - May 28 by Herbivore |
No enforceable restrictions were brought in on the 16th. Not one. You keep trying to rewrite history, but everything remained open that week and it was a full week later that our version of lockdown started. |
I can confirm this as my first day off sick with covid was actually the sixteenth, it was pretty scary to be feeling so abysmal while the government were still cobbling together a plan. | | | |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:57 - May 28 with 1706 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:43 - May 28 by Swansea_Blue |
Quite right.
On 15th March Hancock advised over 70s that they'd be asked to stay at home for 3 months (voluntary).
On 16th March Johnson advised people to work from home if possible, avoid non-essential travel and going to pubs/clubs, etc.
On 20th March Johnson ordered pubs, clubs, gyms to close
On 23rd March Johnson announces lockdown -that's the first time the tone switched from advice to an instruction.
On 25th March the Coronavirus Act 2020 is passed giving Police powers to enforce guidelines announced on 23rd.
A lot of people and organisations were minimising activities after the 16th March, but many more weren't. That's why there was a massive hoohar at the time around it with people pointing the other countries' responses and calling for us to go much further. |
Yes. They announced on Thursday 19th that schools would be closed from Monday 23rd.
I spent Monday 23rd in school with the whole staff awaiting instruction on how to proceed while the school worked out how to manage the 10-12 students who were in.
During the week leading up to it we had significant numbers of students self-isolating either to protect vulnerable family members or because they or other members of the household were showing symptoms. We had to send a number of those Year 11 students home when they turned up for their last day on the Friday despite self-isolating.
The football leagues had chosen to suspend the season ahead of the fixtures on 14 March and I believe that was due to confirmed cases among staff in the Premier League. | |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:59 - May 28 with 1702 views | Darth_Koont |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:14 - May 28 by lowhouseblue |
"Jesus, you even sound like a Tory when making excuses. "
you and dk can clearly only see this covid-19 crisis in terms of tories and anti-tories. or indeed for dk leavers v. remainers. it's the ultimate in tribal dumbing down. |
Where have I said it's in terms of Leavers and Remainers? I'm saying it's in relation to this particular group leading the government versus the reality of Brexit. They are the architects and instigators but at the same time don't have any particular interest in the relationship between the EU and the UK. They've taken a complex situation with serious long-term implications for many millions and gamed it for their own short-term political goals.
Looks very much as if they're doing the same with Covid-19 but being so far out of their depth exposes them. And they can't lie away the deaths by putting different numbers on a bus. | |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 16:08 - May 28 with 1672 views | lowhouseblue |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:31 - May 28 by Herbivore |
No enforceable restrictions were brought in on the 16th. Not one. You keep trying to rewrite history, but everything remained open that week and it was a full week later that our version of lockdown started. |
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/life-put-on-hold-what-the-papers-s | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 16:27 - May 28 with 1649 views | Herbivore |
You've posted a link that doesn't refute my post. Well done you. You're getting better at this. | |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 16:29 - May 28 with 1646 views | itfcjoe |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:59 - May 28 by Darth_Koont |
Where have I said it's in terms of Leavers and Remainers? I'm saying it's in relation to this particular group leading the government versus the reality of Brexit. They are the architects and instigators but at the same time don't have any particular interest in the relationship between the EU and the UK. They've taken a complex situation with serious long-term implications for many millions and gamed it for their own short-term political goals.
Looks very much as if they're doing the same with Covid-19 but being so far out of their depth exposes them. And they can't lie away the deaths by putting different numbers on a bus. |
There was a key piece in Steve Baker's piece about this which he posted to his website on Sunday:
https://thecritic.co.uk/boris-must-take-back-control/
After all, he said we should vote for the original Withdrawal Agreement without reading it, on the basis Michael Gove articulated: we could change it later. But now with him in power, we are putting in a modest border in the Irish Sea.
Basically, got people to sign an international treaty and then wants to change it. It's like he thinks he is above the rules of anything, that they will bend and break to suit him when he wants it. | |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 16:34 - May 28 with 1639 views | ElephantintheRoom |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:14 - May 28 by Kievthegreat |
I think some of the timings are slightly off. Italy and Spain had large outbreaks (rather than low numbers of isolated cases) weeks ahead of the UK. We had an opportunity to lockdown earlier then we did and had warning of what was going on in Italy. Granted places like NZ had better warning (and a more isolated Geographical location), but I don't think it's fair to characterise us as having little warning. I got ill (presumably from Corona, but never tested because not severe enough ) and was off work, and then still got back in the office before lockdown (until working from home could be resolved a few days later). The entire discussion for a whole week was "why have we not locked down yet? It's crazy!". Eventually we locked down, but that delay, when it was obvious things were serious, is likely to have caused 10,000s of deaths.
Still for me the worst country's reaction was the US. They had a significant cluster of deaths in Seattle back in February, but a lot of the country only reacted in earnest when New York got really hammered. They had lots of warning but some places were appalling slow to react (because much was left to governors so you ended up with disparate rules and Trump was floundering about).
EDIT: The deaths in Seattle were Feb, not Jan as originally stated. [Post edited 28 May 2020 14:25]
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You wont see much praise of the Japanese approach, even from the Japanese,,,, but for a country that had a fast track link to Wuhan long before Covid hit the headlines they have done remarkably well in containing the virus,.
Uncomfortable fact No 1 - a country with a very dense population and lots of elderly, vulnerable people
UUncomfortable fact No 2 - no lockdown whatsoever |  |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 17:01 - May 28 with 1605 views | BrixtonBlue |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:14 - May 28 by lowhouseblue |
"Jesus, you even sound like a Tory when making excuses. "
you and dk can clearly only see this covid-19 crisis in terms of tories and anti-tories. or indeed for dk leavers v. remainers. it's the ultimate in tribal dumbing down. |
Not at all. I was actually complimentary about Boris early on. Even Glassers praised my evenhandedness. | |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 17:05 - May 28 with 1593 views | BrixtonBlue |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 14:27 - May 28 by Herbivore |
Following the expert advice is a somewhat vague platitude. Advisers advise, but the strategic decisions are ultimately political ones. It's conceivable that epidemiological advice was to shut down straight away, advice from behavioural psychologists warned of lockdown fatigue, and economic advice is that every day under lockdown costs x amount to the economy. That is all perfectly reasonable but doesn't point in one clear direction, so the government interprets the advice and inevitably does so through a filter of its own priorities too.
Now, I feel we know enough already to say the govenement has done a poor job. Our version of lockdown was made official on the 26th of March though it was announced on the 23rd and more or less in place from then. We had a week prior to that in some kind of limbo where everything remained open. That looked indecisive at the time and it appears now some time later that the indecision cost lives.
At other points messaging hasn't been clear, in particular around who should and shouldn't go to work and whether not using public transport is more or less important than getting back to work. That's not to mention how vague 'Stay Alert' is as a public health slogan in the midst of a pandemic.
We also missed out on the EU ventilator scheme due to incompetence. We lacked adequate and sufficient PPE at the start of the pandemic, and generally were undeprepared despite the fact that pandemic planning has taken place in the UK and despite us having 2-3 weeks of time on the rest of Europe to learn from any mistakes they may have made.
We then have the lack of preparedness of care homes and the releasing of elderly patients back to care home from hospitals were Covid-19 was present and sometimes without knowing whether that individual was infected. Not enough was done to protect them.
And now we have the government choosing to back an adviser that flouted lockdown guidelines and regulations, totally undermining public health messages. Many scientists have publicly expressed their concerns about this.
I am not sure what evidence you are waiting for to conclude that the govenement has done a bad job. The highest mortality rate in the world despite us having extra time to plan and prepare should be a pretty big indicator. There is evidence at every step of poor planning, muddled thinking, or confused messaging. |
Yeah, but it COULD be the scientists fault, all that! | |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 17:08 - May 28 with 1588 views | Darth_Koont |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 17:01 - May 28 by BrixtonBlue |
Not at all. I was actually complimentary about Boris early on. Even Glassers praised my evenhandedness. |
Exactly.
For me it was a totally non-partisan issue at the start. I gave them at least a couple of weeks because I thought a global health crisis must shake them into reality and taking real responsibility. | |
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| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 17:19 - May 28 with 1560 views | Herbivore |
| There's an FT piece comparing total excess deaths in the UK today on 17:08 - May 28 by Darth_Koont |
Exactly.
For me it was a totally non-partisan issue at the start. I gave them at least a couple of weeks because I thought a global health crisis must shake them into reality and taking real responsibility. |
There's also been plenty of praise from across the political spectrum for some of their actions, for example the furlough scheme and government backed loans to help ensure that individuals and businesses don't fall off a financial cliff edge. Dismissing all criticism of the government's handling of the crisis as partisan party politics really is the stuff of Trumpian politics or Orwellian dystopia. There are plenty of legitimate grounds on which to think the government has handled this poorly. | |
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