| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then 16:38 - Aug 17 with 4029 views | clive_baker |
Good. Shame it took such mismanagement initially to get to this though.
Does this mean there will be kids at posh schools who have sh1thoused some good grades and will now be revised down?
What a mess. |  |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 12:35 - Aug 18 with 1486 views | lowhouseblue |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 11:46 - Aug 18 by Mullet |
I never said they did, hence the question. But the more concentrated such cheating is, the more it questions why the government failed to act upon it doesn't it? What could possibly be the motivation there when you look at where "adjustments" came and where they didn't?
We've done the lack of clarity about the algorithm and data several times now, but I have to ask why grades need to be "in line" with previous and not with the data that we have on the cohort?
Why if there is a trend (based on two years laughably) of a decrease why not repeat that again?
The answer to your last question is essentially government ineptitude and cronyism compounded by their arrogance no? |
"But the more concentrated such cheating is, the more it questions why the government failed to act upon it doesn't it?"
Absolutely. The ofqual and the exam boards had months - why didn't they go back to the schools who had significantly inflated their estimated grades and challenge them? Why didn't they force the schools who were the outliers to redo their estimates? utterly inept.
"I have to ask why grades need to be "in line" with previous and not with the data that we have on the cohort?"
because over a very long period of time data has shown successive cohorts to be broadly comparable to their immediate predecessor cohorts. they may vary by a percentage point or so but not more than that. it is extremely unlikely that the intellectual prowess of a cohort born 12 months after the previous cohort is going to be massively different. I don't believe that there is any objective and reliable data on the 2020 cohort to suggest that they are worthy of 38% A and above, whilst the 2019 cohort was only worth 25% A and above. grade exaggeration by some schools is a much more likely explanation than a very dramatic rise in intellectual ability over the space of 12 months.
edit - the data on gcse results in 2018 shows that they were stable relative to those in 2017. so if the 2020 A level cohort are unprecedented geniuses it has only come on since they took their gcses.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guide-to-gcse-results-for-england-2018
[Post edited 18 Aug 2020 12:46]
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| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 12:43 - Aug 18 with 1462 views | Plums |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 19:43 - Aug 17 by Swansea_Blue |
Absolutely right they had to correct for the unjust outcomes, but by belatedly correcting one problem they now screw over certain Universities who thought they'd managed to get the numbers they need only to see students back out of agreements and go somewhere else instead. Lifting the cap in particular is going to be a killer for some. In what's effectively a trickle down system, they've just made the top pool much larger so fewer students are going to go to the mid- and lower-end Unis.
Ofqual and the Government have ballsed this whole thing up. They've had months to prepare for it too. A total shambles. |
It also undermines the entire admissions approach to HE. Students who were refused entry last week are now acceptable, despite neither the student or their ability to do the course for which they’ve applied changing. |  |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 12:53 - Aug 18 with 1455 views | Mullet |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 12:35 - Aug 18 by lowhouseblue |
"But the more concentrated such cheating is, the more it questions why the government failed to act upon it doesn't it?"
Absolutely. The ofqual and the exam boards had months - why didn't they go back to the schools who had significantly inflated their estimated grades and challenge them? Why didn't they force the schools who were the outliers to redo their estimates? utterly inept.
"I have to ask why grades need to be "in line" with previous and not with the data that we have on the cohort?"
because over a very long period of time data has shown successive cohorts to be broadly comparable to their immediate predecessor cohorts. they may vary by a percentage point or so but not more than that. it is extremely unlikely that the intellectual prowess of a cohort born 12 months after the previous cohort is going to be massively different. I don't believe that there is any objective and reliable data on the 2020 cohort to suggest that they are worthy of 38% A and above, whilst the 2019 cohort was only worth 25% A and above. grade exaggeration by some schools is a much more likely explanation than a very dramatic rise in intellectual ability over the space of 12 months.
edit - the data on gcse results in 2018 shows that they were stable relative to those in 2017. so if the 2020 A level cohort are unprecedented geniuses it has only come on since they took their gcses.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guide-to-gcse-results-for-england-2018
[Post edited 18 Aug 2020 12:46]
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It's interesting to see your change in position over the past week to now saying things which I raised with you previously about the inaction of Ofqual etc. vs. the likelihood of wide scale exam fraud.
Had they acted as the results came in and flagged up those suspected it would have relieved all of this by several factors. You have to question why not and what the gain in doing so was for them.
Had they not moved to linear exams you also wouldn't have had this doubt and flexibility over where the boundaries would be too, but that is historical. They did this 3 years ago, so how can you claim a long historical data set here accurately too? |  |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 12:56 - Aug 18 with 1451 views | Mullet |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 12:43 - Aug 18 by Plums |
It also undermines the entire admissions approach to HE. Students who were refused entry last week are now acceptable, despite neither the student or their ability to do the course for which they’ve applied changing. |
I feel so sorry for Unis as they have been handed the problem and along with us teachers will share much of the blame and ire from certain sections of society.
Logistically you also have potential for lawsuits I'd have thought if they can't deliver education effectively. | |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:00 - Aug 18 with 1445 views | Blue_Heath |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 12:35 - Aug 18 by lowhouseblue |
"But the more concentrated such cheating is, the more it questions why the government failed to act upon it doesn't it?"
Absolutely. The ofqual and the exam boards had months - why didn't they go back to the schools who had significantly inflated their estimated grades and challenge them? Why didn't they force the schools who were the outliers to redo their estimates? utterly inept.
"I have to ask why grades need to be "in line" with previous and not with the data that we have on the cohort?"
because over a very long period of time data has shown successive cohorts to be broadly comparable to their immediate predecessor cohorts. they may vary by a percentage point or so but not more than that. it is extremely unlikely that the intellectual prowess of a cohort born 12 months after the previous cohort is going to be massively different. I don't believe that there is any objective and reliable data on the 2020 cohort to suggest that they are worthy of 38% A and above, whilst the 2019 cohort was only worth 25% A and above. grade exaggeration by some schools is a much more likely explanation than a very dramatic rise in intellectual ability over the space of 12 months.
edit - the data on gcse results in 2018 shows that they were stable relative to those in 2017. so if the 2020 A level cohort are unprecedented geniuses it has only come on since they took their gcses.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guide-to-gcse-results-for-england-2018
[Post edited 18 Aug 2020 12:46]
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You fail to recognise the grades awarded by exams boards have moving grade boundaries, the exam boards each year change these so that only so many percent get each grade which is why the data looks comparable. Over the last decade the marks to get the higher grades have risen considerably whereas the grades awarded haven't. |  | | |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:01 - Aug 18 with 1442 views | lowhouseblue |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 12:53 - Aug 18 by Mullet |
It's interesting to see your change in position over the past week to now saying things which I raised with you previously about the inaction of Ofqual etc. vs. the likelihood of wide scale exam fraud.
Had they acted as the results came in and flagged up those suspected it would have relieved all of this by several factors. You have to question why not and what the gain in doing so was for them.
Had they not moved to linear exams you also wouldn't have had this doubt and flexibility over where the boundaries would be too, but that is historical. They did this 3 years ago, so how can you claim a long historical data set here accurately too? |
and if we still had AS levels it would have been massively easier. for universities losing AS has been a disaster because they were very strongly correlated with future performance.
my position was that moderation was essential in order to avoid grade inflation and unfairness across schools. i can now see that it would have been far better if ofqual had intervened when they first received the data on school predictions and refused to accept the returns from the outlier schools. I have no explanation as why neither they nor the exam boards did that other than utter incompetence - and the department of education must have been equally incompetent not to have seen what was happening and forced them to act. the sequence of amateurish failure to get us to this point is quite remarkable. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:03 - Aug 18 with 1439 views | Plums |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 12:56 - Aug 18 by Mullet |
I feel so sorry for Unis as they have been handed the problem and along with us teachers will share much of the blame and ire from certain sections of society.
Logistically you also have potential for lawsuits I'd have thought if they can't deliver education effectively. |
Yes, there’s no doubt the political attacks on the sector will continue. This just feeds the narrative of unfulfilling education that the government is propagating. | |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:11 - Aug 18 with 1437 views | lowhouseblue |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:00 - Aug 18 by Blue_Heath |
You fail to recognise the grades awarded by exams boards have moving grade boundaries, the exam boards each year change these so that only so many percent get each grade which is why the data looks comparable. Over the last decade the marks to get the higher grades have risen considerably whereas the grades awarded haven't. |
and why do exam boards do that? to ensure that grading is consistent between years and to compensate for changes in exam setting and marking standards. there is no objective data to suggest that cohorts have become progressively more able. the issue is that examination setting and marking has changed over time and led to higher raw marks. given a broadly constant ability profile over time exam boards have to correct for those variations in raw marks. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:27 - Aug 18 with 1422 views | Blue_Heath |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:11 - Aug 18 by lowhouseblue |
and why do exam boards do that? to ensure that grading is consistent between years and to compensate for changes in exam setting and marking standards. there is no objective data to suggest that cohorts have become progressively more able. the issue is that examination setting and marking has changed over time and led to higher raw marks. given a broadly constant ability profile over time exam boards have to correct for those variations in raw marks. |
The issue is as a student you are the mercy of an exam board where one year lets say 30 might score a C the next it might be 32. This is blatantly not fair and each cohort will be different.
On another point it is teachers who are paid by exam boards to mark the papers the very same people who supposedly over graded! If sitting a past paper it would have been marked with the exam board mark scheme and grades via raw scores as given by the exam board which is a fair reflection of performance on that paper.
The bottom line is the exam system is totally flawed and biased towards the elite. There should be one exam board so as not to penalise children who may have to move schools and a standard pass mark for each grade that doesn't change. | | | |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:41 - Aug 18 with 1412 views | lowhouseblue |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:27 - Aug 18 by Blue_Heath |
The issue is as a student you are the mercy of an exam board where one year lets say 30 might score a C the next it might be 32. This is blatantly not fair and each cohort will be different.
On another point it is teachers who are paid by exam boards to mark the papers the very same people who supposedly over graded! If sitting a past paper it would have been marked with the exam board mark scheme and grades via raw scores as given by the exam board which is a fair reflection of performance on that paper.
The bottom line is the exam system is totally flawed and biased towards the elite. There should be one exam board so as not to penalise children who may have to move schools and a standard pass mark for each grade that doesn't change. |
"a standard pass mark for each grade that doesn't change"
but everything else changes from year to year. the course content and structure, the style of teaching, the style of questions, how much exam preparation people get, etc. how can the mark for each grade stay the same when everything else is changing? there is lots of research that suggests that average iqs in various countries including the uk have been falling since the late C20th, but that what we have seen is an increase in ''teaching to the test'. people are getting higher raw marks because courses and exams have become far more structured and schools and teachers have become more skilled at teaching focused largely on maximising exam scores. with schools focused on teaching to the test students get better at doing tests. exam boards have to compensate for that.
I'm very tempted to follow you down the "The bottom line is the exam system is totally flawed and biased towards the elite" rabbit hole, but it will completely divert the thread. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:55 - Aug 18 with 1393 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:41 - Aug 18 by lowhouseblue |
"a standard pass mark for each grade that doesn't change"
but everything else changes from year to year. the course content and structure, the style of teaching, the style of questions, how much exam preparation people get, etc. how can the mark for each grade stay the same when everything else is changing? there is lots of research that suggests that average iqs in various countries including the uk have been falling since the late C20th, but that what we have seen is an increase in ''teaching to the test'. people are getting higher raw marks because courses and exams have become far more structured and schools and teachers have become more skilled at teaching focused largely on maximising exam scores. with schools focused on teaching to the test students get better at doing tests. exam boards have to compensate for that.
I'm very tempted to follow you down the "The bottom line is the exam system is totally flawed and biased towards the elite" rabbit hole, but it will completely divert the thread. |
I'm still trying to work out what your fundamental point is though... [Post edited 18 Aug 2020 13:55]
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:58 - Aug 18 with 1388 views | lowhouseblue |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:55 - Aug 18 by Ewan_Oozami |
I'm still trying to work out what your fundamental point is though... [Post edited 18 Aug 2020 13:55]
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that the final outcome of this bungled farce has been a huge degree of grade inflation and undermining the credibility of the whole exam system. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:20 - Aug 18 with 1367 views | Darth_Koont |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:58 - Aug 18 by lowhouseblue |
that the final outcome of this bungled farce has been a huge degree of grade inflation and undermining the credibility of the whole exam system. |
The credibility of the exam system rather depends on actually being able to take the exam doesn't it? And this is about measuring an INDIVIDUAL's performance more than anything else.
Arbitrarily assigning grade adjustments across the board to make the numbers add up is a statistical exercise that has no practical merit on a case by case basis. |  |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:39 - Aug 18 with 1347 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:58 - Aug 18 by lowhouseblue |
that the final outcome of this bungled farce has been a huge degree of grade inflation and undermining the credibility of the whole exam system. |
Ah yes, I see, thank you, nothing too serious then.. | |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:40 - Aug 18 with 1346 views | Mullet |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 13:41 - Aug 18 by lowhouseblue |
"a standard pass mark for each grade that doesn't change"
but everything else changes from year to year. the course content and structure, the style of teaching, the style of questions, how much exam preparation people get, etc. how can the mark for each grade stay the same when everything else is changing? there is lots of research that suggests that average iqs in various countries including the uk have been falling since the late C20th, but that what we have seen is an increase in ''teaching to the test'. people are getting higher raw marks because courses and exams have become far more structured and schools and teachers have become more skilled at teaching focused largely on maximising exam scores. with schools focused on teaching to the test students get better at doing tests. exam boards have to compensate for that.
I'm very tempted to follow you down the "The bottom line is the exam system is totally flawed and biased towards the elite" rabbit hole, but it will completely divert the thread. |
None of that is true about what you've just listed in terms of changes from year to year, unless you choose to change your teaching style and that is entirely individual. | |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:49 - Aug 18 with 1334 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Just a pity nobody pointed out that exam results are massaged every year depending on what the marks are.... and massaging teachers predictive grades is more of the same..
You could argue that all these abrupt U-turns are an example of a strong, stable government prepared to admit when it got it wrong .
Or a bunch of shameless chancers who dont care one way or the other... and shout immigrants!!!! when things look a tad tricky | |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:51 - Aug 18 with 1325 views | lowhouseblue |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:20 - Aug 18 by Darth_Koont |
The credibility of the exam system rather depends on actually being able to take the exam doesn't it? And this is about measuring an INDIVIDUAL's performance more than anything else.
Arbitrarily assigning grade adjustments across the board to make the numbers add up is a statistical exercise that has no practical merit on a case by case basis. |
whereas having a proportion of schools game the system by inflating grades by 10% is of course fine? actually exams are about differentiating performance - not all INDIVIDUALS can ever get what they want. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:53 - Aug 18 with 1319 views | itfcjoe |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:49 - Aug 18 by ElephantintheRoom |
Just a pity nobody pointed out that exam results are massaged every year depending on what the marks are.... and massaging teachers predictive grades is more of the same..
You could argue that all these abrupt U-turns are an example of a strong, stable government prepared to admit when it got it wrong .
Or a bunch of shameless chancers who dont care one way or the other... and shout immigrants!!!! when things look a tad tricky |
Depends what the focus groups are saying, when they say jump the Govt says 'how high'? |  |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:54 - Aug 18 with 1316 views | lowhouseblue |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:40 - Aug 18 by Mullet |
None of that is true about what you've just listed in terms of changes from year to year, unless you choose to change your teaching style and that is entirely individual. |
but it's entirely true in explaining the rise in raw exam marks over time. the idea that a raw mark of X in 2019 means that a candidate is the same as one who got a raw mark of X in 2010 is clearly nonsense. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:55 - Aug 18 with 1314 views | Darth_Koont |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:51 - Aug 18 by lowhouseblue |
whereas having a proportion of schools game the system by inflating grades by 10% is of course fine? actually exams are about differentiating performance - not all INDIVIDUALS can ever get what they want. |
But you're not differentiating performance by making swingeing adjustments.
It's a purely statistical exercise. | |
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| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:57 - Aug 18 with 1307 views | Mullet |
| A U-turn on GCSE and A-Level results then on 14:54 - Aug 18 by lowhouseblue |
but it's entirely true in explaining the rise in raw exam marks over time. the idea that a raw mark of X in 2019 means that a candidate is the same as one who got a raw mark of X in 2010 is clearly nonsense. |
If the list you made was true, your previous points about comparison would be null and void. The course content does not change year to year but when there are exam reforms, same as the questions etc.
Raw exam marks depend on what questions are asked and how they are marked. This is down to exam boards, so again the only element of truth in your post is something nobody is arguing. | |
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