| xG data.... 14:50 - Nov 23 with 3035 views | itfcjoe |
....just having a look at some that gets sent my way for a subscription I have
Before the Shrewsbury game we sat like this
Season to date - 11th
Last 12 games - 14th
Last 8 games - 17th
Last 4 games - 22nd
A worrying slide - will see where we sit when i get this weeks data through
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| xG data.... on 15:37 - Nov 23 with 1092 views | jayessess |
| xG data.... on 15:20 - Nov 23 by clive_baker |
To play devils advocate, it's a bit subjective what constitutes a chance vs. a good change. Take Saturday, when Jackson did well to get to the byline and cut it back, it was on a plate for Lankester and 4 times out of 5 that goes in. If not, Sears puts the rebound away.
I'm convinced there was a nudge on Nsiala at one point in the box too in the 1st half. The big man didn't make a meal of it, but it looked a pen to me.
Judge then missed one in the 2nd half when he hit the far post. When I first saw it I thought he was on the stretch and it was a tough chance, but it wasn't. That was a sitter IMO.
McGuinness is left unmarked for a header in the 2nd half from 12 yards. For someone as good in the air as he is that's more than a half chance.
We then score 2 goals, albeit the 1st was spawny.
On another day if we score 3 or 4, including 1 or 2 in the first half, there's probably less focus on how sh1t we were. The bigger issue for me is the nature of how we're playing, it's error ridden, ponderous, and far from free flowing. We're scrappy, and sh1thouing wins against crap opposition. It isn't sustainable for anything more than where we're at now, that's my issue. We don't look like we're improving or working towards anything. |
https://experimental361.com/2020/11/22/league-1-timelines-21-nov-2020/#jp-carous
Apparently, we "won" 1.7 to 1 yesterday. The 1 for them was basically the pen. Judge being unable to shovel the ball in on the stretch was our biggest chance, Bennetts' cross wasn't a chance at all and Jackson's header was 0.1 of an expected goal! |  |
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| xG data.... on 15:44 - Nov 23 with 1081 views | clive_baker |
| xG data.... on 15:35 - Nov 23 by itfcjoe |
Yep, I'm not the biggest fan of xG and think it only gives part of the picture - but when you look at the trends with it you can see the teams that are now on decent runs were heading the right way before the run hit.
Clubs go through hot patches where they put away every chance that falls to them, but think over last 5-6 games we've pushed our luck. We talk about Lankester missing a good chance at Sunderland but then ignore that he scored from a half chance before then.
Saturday felt like a nadir of watching us, and it was a game we won - for me it became the moment where as much as I've tried to give the benefit of the doubt to Lambert it became impossible to think that we are going in the right direction - and that we are just badly coached |
Yep, I agree. We're a crap version of ourselves, that's the way I see it. We can overcome half the sides in this division through a bit of a scrap and ultimately more quality. They tend to give us too much respect, sit too deep and invite us on to them. When sides with a little more about them don't, we lack the nouse to penetrate them and ask any real questions. Even if we did manage to go up this year, what would be the point? We would have our arses handed to us in the Championship. |  |
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| xG data.... on 15:48 - Nov 23 with 1072 views | RobTheMonk |
| xG data.... on 15:20 - Nov 23 by clive_baker |
To play devils advocate, it's a bit subjective what constitutes a chance vs. a good change. Take Saturday, when Jackson did well to get to the byline and cut it back, it was on a plate for Lankester and 4 times out of 5 that goes in. If not, Sears puts the rebound away.
I'm convinced there was a nudge on Nsiala at one point in the box too in the 1st half. The big man didn't make a meal of it, but it looked a pen to me.
Judge then missed one in the 2nd half when he hit the far post. When I first saw it I thought he was on the stretch and it was a tough chance, but it wasn't. That was a sitter IMO.
McGuinness is left unmarked for a header in the 2nd half from 12 yards. For someone as good in the air as he is that's more than a half chance.
We then score 2 goals, albeit the 1st was spawny.
On another day if we score 3 or 4, including 1 or 2 in the first half, there's probably less focus on how sh1t we were. The bigger issue for me is the nature of how we're playing, it's error ridden, ponderous, and far from free flowing. We're scrappy, and sh1thouing wins against crap opposition. It isn't sustainable for anything more than where we're at now, that's my issue. We don't look like we're improving or working towards anything. |
I think if Judge goes with his left foot, that's a goal. |  | | |
| xG data.... on 15:49 - Nov 23 with 1069 views | IpswichKnight |
| xG data.... on 15:44 - Nov 23 by clive_baker |
Yep, I agree. We're a crap version of ourselves, that's the way I see it. We can overcome half the sides in this division through a bit of a scrap and ultimately more quality. They tend to give us too much respect, sit too deep and invite us on to them. When sides with a little more about them don't, we lack the nouse to penetrate them and ask any real questions. Even if we did manage to go up this year, what would be the point? We would have our arses handed to us in the Championship. |
I agree we’re miles away from even being competitive in the championship we’d be hammered every week 😢 |  | | |
| xG data.... on 15:50 - Nov 23 with 1065 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| xG data.... on 15:36 - Nov 23 by Herbivore |
Not sure how it works for XG, but they only really represent one goalscoring opportunity as if Lankester scores then there is no follow up for Sears. |
Yeah I thought that, but then again having two bites of the cherry makes it a better chance than if there'd been no follow up. |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| xG data.... on 15:51 - Nov 23 with 1062 views | clive_baker |
| xG data.... on 15:48 - Nov 23 by RobTheMonk |
I think if Judge goes with his left foot, that's a goal. |
Agreed. As I said, first time of watching I thought he was unlucky, it flicks off Jackson and was all but out by the time he gets there, but that wasn't the case. It was well inside the post and for some inexplicable reason decides to dive at it studs up. | |
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| xG data.... on 15:56 - Nov 23 with 1053 views | RobTheMonk |
| xG data.... on 15:51 - Nov 23 by clive_baker |
Agreed. As I said, first time of watching I thought he was unlucky, it flicks off Jackson and was all but out by the time he gets there, but that wasn't the case. It was well inside the post and for some inexplicable reason decides to dive at it studs up. |
I was so frustrated watching it - just go with the left peg. So many players are reluctant to play with their weaker foot. [Post edited 23 Nov 2020 15:56]
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| xG data.... on 16:18 - Nov 23 with 1030 views | Herbivore |
| xG data.... on 15:50 - Nov 23 by The_Flashing_Smile |
Yeah I thought that, but then again having two bites of the cherry makes it a better chance than if there'd been no follow up. |
Yes, I imagine with the xG that the initial chance might have been, say, 0.5 and the follow up 0.5 so that it becomes a 1 overall on xG. Basically that opportunity as a whole would normally lead to a goal from either the initial chance or the follow up. In the context of the game though it's only really one opportunity as such. |  |
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| xG data.... on 16:28 - Nov 23 with 1020 views | jayessess |
| xG data.... on 16:18 - Nov 23 by Herbivore |
Yes, I imagine with the xG that the initial chance might have been, say, 0.5 and the follow up 0.5 so that it becomes a 1 overall on xG. Basically that opportunity as a whole would normally lead to a goal from either the initial chance or the follow up. In the context of the game though it's only really one opportunity as such. |
The graph I posted above has it as one very low xg chance (0.05 or something like that), a slight wiggle, then a much higher xg chance (0.3-0.5, hard to tell really).
Which is silly really, once Lanks gets there, it's as good a chance as you'll ever get in football. | |
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| xG data.... on 16:28 - Nov 23 with 1019 views | LankHenners |
| xG data.... on 15:44 - Nov 23 by clive_baker |
Yep, I agree. We're a crap version of ourselves, that's the way I see it. We can overcome half the sides in this division through a bit of a scrap and ultimately more quality. They tend to give us too much respect, sit too deep and invite us on to them. When sides with a little more about them don't, we lack the nouse to penetrate them and ask any real questions. Even if we did manage to go up this year, what would be the point? We would have our arses handed to us in the Championship. |
Your last 2 lines spell out a(nother) big reason for me why Lambert has to go - the medium-to-long term future of the club is bleak as we're not playing in a way that will wash in the Championship. With the gap in quality getting wider you have to get promoted whilst being on fire and looking far too good for this league just to stand a chance of competing in the one above.
I don't think it's out of the question that we somehow limp over the line by some hook or crook but, as you say, we'd just get thumped (or at least beaten very comfortably) every week by teams that don't have to get out of first gear. |  |
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| xG data.... on 16:38 - Nov 23 with 1000 views | SomethingBlue |
| xG data.... on 15:44 - Nov 23 by clive_baker |
Yep, I agree. We're a crap version of ourselves, that's the way I see it. We can overcome half the sides in this division through a bit of a scrap and ultimately more quality. They tend to give us too much respect, sit too deep and invite us on to them. When sides with a little more about them don't, we lack the nouse to penetrate them and ask any real questions. Even if we did manage to go up this year, what would be the point? We would have our arses handed to us in the Championship. |
I don't think it's particularly true re Championship. But let's worry about that later. If we get up we'll need to become much, much smarter as a club but there is a *massive*, possibly existential, point in doing it this season and allowing for the conversation. | |
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| xG data.... on 13:45 - Nov 24 with 927 views | StokieBlue |
Joe - do you get the full xG data for all leagues and teams in that subscription?
Is it only the calculated xG or do you get the underlying stats, things like shots from outside the box, shots inside the box with conversion rates, quality of shots conceded etc?
SB |  | | |
| xG data.... on 11:09 - Nov 30 with 877 views | itfcjoe |
Update on this after weekends games....
Last 12 games - 15th
Last 8 games - 20th
Last 4 games - 23rd | |
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| xG data.... on 11:11 - Nov 30 with 867 views | StokieBlue |
| xG data.... on 11:09 - Nov 30 by itfcjoe |
Update on this after weekends games....
Last 12 games - 15th
Last 8 games - 20th
Last 4 games - 23rd |
Unfortunately that's not a surprise.
Would be interesting to hear someone at the press conference ask Lambo about it - I suspect he would dismiss it entirely.
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| xG data.... on 11:13 - Nov 30 with 856 views | itfcjoe |
| xG data.... on 11:11 - Nov 30 by StokieBlue |
Unfortunately that's not a surprise.
Would be interesting to hear someone at the press conference ask Lambo about it - I suspect he would dismiss it entirely.
SB |
He watches a different game to everyone anyway! | |
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| xG data.... on 11:13 - Nov 30 with 846 views | MrTown |
| xG data.... on 11:09 - Nov 30 by itfcjoe |
Update on this after weekends games....
Last 12 games - 15th
Last 8 games - 20th
Last 4 games - 23rd |
The wheels are falling off baby.
Nae Normal.
Top side, we're a really good side, really happy with the lads, give us everything.
[Post edited 30 Nov 2020 11:17]
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| xG data.... on 11:49 - Nov 30 with 795 views | Pinewoodblue |
I'm sure if you compared that with the stats when last season was terminated, and indeed the season we were relegated, that they will show the same trend.
How much evidence is needed to bring out about the change most of us crave? |  |
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| xG data.... on 11:51 - Nov 30 with 791 views | Dyland |
| xG data.... on 11:49 - Nov 30 by Pinewoodblue |
I'm sure if you compared that with the stats when last season was terminated, and indeed the season we were relegated, that they will show the same trend.
How much evidence is needed to bring out about the change most of us crave? |
Evans doesn't seem to notice.
It is scandalous, in relative football club business terms. |  |
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