| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout 16:34 - Jan 8 with 3371 views | StokieBlue |
Today was the worst day of the pandemic thus far, 1325 deaths and it's likely that the effects of household mixing over Christmas haven't fed through into the numbers yet. For context that is nearly 200 higher than any daily total in April.
It looks like the new variant is still mostly concentrated in the SE and London though which is some good news. Hopefully the lockdown will stop it taking hold as badly in other regions.
We really need the government to get this right. Good to see them calling on the manpower of the army to assist where needed.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 16:40 - Jan 8 with 1873 views | hype313 |
Desperately hoping this lockdown starts to help imminently, can't help but think if we had locked down on the 18th (when SAGE suggested) we wouldn't be seeing such distressing scenes in London. |  |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:03 - Jan 8 with 1819 views | bluelagos |
Was thinking about this earlier. The lockdown 1 peak of deaths was almost exactly 2 weeks after the lockdown.
So that would suggest we would expect to be peaking about now? Although today's figures hardly suggest a plateauing... |  |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:08 - Jan 8 with 1796 views | hype313 |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:03 - Jan 8 by bluelagos |
Was thinking about this earlier. The lockdown 1 peak of deaths was almost exactly 2 weeks after the lockdown.
So that would suggest we would expect to be peaking about now? Although today's figures hardly suggest a plateauing... |
The other concerning thing to see is that Germany have just announced another thousand deaths for the 3rd day in a row and they went into lockdown in early december. | |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:11 - Jan 8 with 1782 views | StokieBlue |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:03 - Jan 8 by bluelagos |
Was thinking about this earlier. The lockdown 1 peak of deaths was almost exactly 2 weeks after the lockdown.
So that would suggest we would expect to be peaking about now? Although today's figures hardly suggest a plateauing... |
I think comparisons might be difficult because even in a lockdown the B117 variant is just so much more transmissible. There are also still a lot more people in hospital than at the peak of the first wave.
There was hope yesterday that cases were levelling off but todays numbers are up again. I think we need to wait until tomorrow to see if that was an anomaly. Hopefully it is and we will be back on a levelling then downward trajectory but the indicators really don't look good at the moment for that to be the case.
SB [Post edited 8 Jan 2021 17:12]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:11 - Jan 8 with 1786 views | gordon |
Also 68,000 cases today which is highest so far of the pandemic, so you'd expect that deaths will continue to rise for at least another two weeks, probably three. And that's only if cases have hit a peak and are about to start falling.
Given various aspects of the current situation I'd not expect deaths or cases to come down as fast as they did in Spring. |  | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:12 - Jan 8 with 1766 views | StokieBlue |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:08 - Jan 8 by hype313 |
The other concerning thing to see is that Germany have just announced another thousand deaths for the 3rd day in a row and they went into lockdown in early december. |
That's also not with the new variant rampant there.
Very worrying times for the Germans.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:25 - Jan 8 with 1716 views | bluelagos |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:11 - Jan 8 by gordon |
Also 68,000 cases today which is highest so far of the pandemic, so you'd expect that deaths will continue to rise for at least another two weeks, probably three. And that's only if cases have hit a peak and are about to start falling.
Given various aspects of the current situation I'd not expect deaths or cases to come down as fast as they did in Spring. |
That's a fair comment. You'd expect the peak of deaths to lag the peak of cases. So if the cases are still rising...
One good bit of news, am hearing from people I know (Health care workers) who are being vaccinated so it really is getting out there. South Suffolk has identified it's centers and start next week apparently. | |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:26 - Jan 8 with 1702 views | hype313 |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:25 - Jan 8 by bluelagos |
That's a fair comment. You'd expect the peak of deaths to lag the peak of cases. So if the cases are still rising...
One good bit of news, am hearing from people I know (Health care workers) who are being vaccinated so it really is getting out there. South Suffolk has identified it's centers and start next week apparently. |
Believe trinity Park is open on Monday, so they should be able to scale up hugely there. | |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:36 - Jan 8 with 1673 views | Giant_Midget |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:03 - Jan 8 by bluelagos |
Was thinking about this earlier. The lockdown 1 peak of deaths was almost exactly 2 weeks after the lockdown.
So that would suggest we would expect to be peaking about now? Although today's figures hardly suggest a plateauing... |
I think lockdown today looks different to lockdown in April. |  | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:42 - Jan 8 with 1668 views | Coastalblue |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:36 - Jan 8 by Giant_Midget |
I think lockdown today looks different to lockdown in April. |
Yep agree and was talking about this today. In March I was working in an empty house and was commuting on roads that were almost completely empty.
Now I'm actually working in and around London, driving all night and the roads are very busy aside from between 1 and 4-30 AM.
Feels completely different, at some point I feel we may need to go back to a March situation, from a selfish point of view I hope not because I'd be financially fecked, but can see it being required. |  |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:43 - Jan 8 with 1663 views | lowhouseblue |
we have a very unpleasant period to get through now.
the pluses are the improved treatments which are reducing death rates amongst those reaching hospital (though the knock effect is that on average the cases reaching intensive care are now even more serious and the death rate there is rising); the fact that more people have been infected and if immunity does persist that acts as a fire break; and the vaccine is kicking in. Quite soon we will have a significant number of the highest risk group with some resistance due to the vaccine - those are the people most likely to be hospitalised. if vaccination goes according to plan that ought to start rapidly reducing the number reaching hospital. numbers in hospitable drive everything else in terms of policy. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:44 - Jan 8 with 1659 views | gordon |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:11 - Jan 8 by StokieBlue |
I think comparisons might be difficult because even in a lockdown the B117 variant is just so much more transmissible. There are also still a lot more people in hospital than at the peak of the first wave.
There was hope yesterday that cases were levelling off but todays numbers are up again. I think we need to wait until tomorrow to see if that was an anomaly. Hopefully it is and we will be back on a levelling then downward trajectory but the indicators really don't look good at the moment for that to be the case.
SB [Post edited 8 Jan 2021 17:12]
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Yes, there's very little reason to be optimistic in terms of the numbers yet - the decline in infections in April / May was pretty sharp but the lockdown was much stricter, the new variant could be more transmissable than the virus was in spring, and the affect of weather may have been pretty important in the decreasing prevalence of the virus in spring. | | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 18:03 - Jan 8 with 1591 views | jaykay |
also better than late is the new restrictions on entering the county |  |
| forensic experts say footers and spruces fingerprints were not found at the scene after the weekends rows |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 18:12 - Jan 8 with 1559 views | 26_Paz |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:03 - Jan 8 by bluelagos |
Was thinking about this earlier. The lockdown 1 peak of deaths was almost exactly 2 weeks after the lockdown.
So that would suggest we would expect to be peaking about now? Although today's figures hardly suggest a plateauing... |
Didn’t lockdown start on Monday? So we’ve got another week of increases before we could expect to see decreases ... |  |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 18:16 - Jan 8 with 1549 views | factual_blue |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 18:03 - Jan 8 by jaykay |
also better than late is the new restrictions on entering the county |
Just in time to stop grumpy trumpy-wumpy from sulking at his golf course in Scotland during the inauguration. |  |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 18:17 - Jan 8 with 1541 views | StokieBlue |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:44 - Jan 8 by gordon |
Yes, there's very little reason to be optimistic in terms of the numbers yet - the decline in infections in April / May was pretty sharp but the lockdown was much stricter, the new variant could be more transmissable than the virus was in spring, and the affect of weather may have been pretty important in the decreasing prevalence of the virus in spring. |
Totally agree.
It's going to be a nasty few months unfortunately.
SB [Post edited 8 Jan 2021 18:17]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 18:18 - Jan 8 with 1530 views | gordon |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 18:12 - Jan 8 by 26_Paz |
Didn’t lockdown start on Monday? So we’ve got another week of increases before we could expect to see decreases ... |
Wouldn expect death rates to easily be over 1,000 a day till mid February, and be closer to 2,000 in next two weeks. | | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 18:19 - Jan 8 with 1526 views | BlueBadger |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 18:03 - Jan 8 by jaykay |
also better than late is the new restrictions on entering the county |
The lie that will rolled out is that it was the EU stopping us doing this. |  |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 20:21 - Jan 8 with 1377 views | gordon |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:43 - Jan 8 by lowhouseblue |
we have a very unpleasant period to get through now.
the pluses are the improved treatments which are reducing death rates amongst those reaching hospital (though the knock effect is that on average the cases reaching intensive care are now even more serious and the death rate there is rising); the fact that more people have been infected and if immunity does persist that acts as a fire break; and the vaccine is kicking in. Quite soon we will have a significant number of the highest risk group with some resistance due to the vaccine - those are the people most likely to be hospitalised. if vaccination goes according to plan that ought to start rapidly reducing the number reaching hospital. numbers in hospitable drive everything else in terms of policy. |
Also worth saying that vaccination isn't going to make that much difference for a while (except it could reduce the no. of healthcare workers getting ill or needing time off).
About 75% of current ICU patients are under 70 so wouldn't have been in line for the vaccine for some time. The roll-out of the vaccine will be making things easier in care homes, but it will be a good few months before it has a material effect on the situation in hospitals. | | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 20:29 - Jan 8 with 1367 views | Ace_High1 |
Yes and the Moderna vaccine approve Stokers.
It will be a while before we start to feel on top of this, as others have said a grim next 4 weeks of daily rises in the stats and stories of issues in the logistics of the vaccine.
Wake me up in April please! |  | | |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 20:29 - Jan 8 with 1368 views | J2BLUE |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:11 - Jan 8 by gordon |
Also 68,000 cases today which is highest so far of the pandemic, so you'd expect that deaths will continue to rise for at least another two weeks, probably three. And that's only if cases have hit a peak and are about to start falling.
Given various aspects of the current situation I'd not expect deaths or cases to come down as fast as they did in Spring. |
According to Tim Spector of the symptom tracker app there are signs infection rates are leveling off. Their data has repeatedly been ahead of the game. Lets hope he's right. |  |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 20:57 - Jan 8 with 1327 views | StokieBlue |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 20:29 - Jan 8 by J2BLUE |
According to Tim Spector of the symptom tracker app there are signs infection rates are leveling off. Their data has repeatedly been ahead of the game. Lets hope he's right. |
I know you've used the Zoe app as a reference before but I looked at one of the charts and the historical predicted cases per 100,000 from the app were about half the reality in December.
Don't suppose you have a comparison of implied vs actual data? I can look later, am being lazy as just cooked and want to go relax now.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 21:00 - Jan 8 with 1317 views | J2BLUE |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 20:57 - Jan 8 by StokieBlue |
I know you've used the Zoe app as a reference before but I looked at one of the charts and the historical predicted cases per 100,000 from the app were about half the reality in December.
Don't suppose you have a comparison of implied vs actual data? I can look later, am being lazy as just cooked and want to go relax now.
SB |
I don't to be honest, it all comes from Dr Campbell's videos. | |
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| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 11:25 - Jan 9 with 1157 views | ONENIL78 |
| Fingers crossed for the Oxford vaccine rollout on 17:42 - Jan 8 by Coastalblue |
Yep agree and was talking about this today. In March I was working in an empty house and was commuting on roads that were almost completely empty.
Now I'm actually working in and around London, driving all night and the roads are very busy aside from between 1 and 4-30 AM.
Feels completely different, at some point I feel we may need to go back to a March situation, from a selfish point of view I hope not because I'd be financially fecked, but can see it being required. |
another 5days of figures like these(which will continue to rise at an alairming rate) and im sure we will be in total lockdown..The amount of people about,and cars on the road now,is 100% more than in last march/april |  | | |
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