| Hartlepool By-Election 13:12 - Mar 16 with 6488 views | tractordownsouth |
Labour MP Mike Hill has resigned so we've got an upcoming by-election. Its' voting history makes it quite unique - it's one of only 3 seats where the Brexit Party/Reform UK won over 10k votes last time so Labour won on quite a low percentage
2019 Result:
Labour 15.4k
Conservatives 11.8k
Brexit Party 10.6k
I think Labour could be in quite big trouble here. The vaccine bounce is clearly going to help the Tories and the fact that Brexit is done may reduce the appeal of Reform UK. However, if Richard Tice stands (as he did in 2019) and does so on an anti-restrictions ticket he might split the right wing vote. I think it'll come down to turnout, as by-elections usually do.
At the moment I'd say a Tory gain is sadly likely but a good local campaign can change that.
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 15:58 - Mar 16 with 2743 views | tractordownsouth |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 14:53 - Mar 16 by Darth_Koont |
No, definitely a lot more people now. Starmer’s net favourability has tumbled even with Labour voters over the past year – and there are now even rumblings from the PLP and the commentariat who’ve given him a free ride so far. |
I'm aware of the favourability ratings and there are definitely some whose' minds have been changed and will be changed if the Tories win the seat, rightly so to some extent.
However, those within the PLP who are suggesting mounting a challenge are Abbott, Burgon, Lavery etc, who have been anti-Starmer since day 1. The fact they're claiming that Starmer falling to his lowest ebb so far of -13 net favourability (which is a concern) is somehow a crisis loses its' credibility when they hero-worshipped a leader who had fallen as low as -51 by July 2019.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/04/voting-intentio | |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 17:49 - Mar 16 with 2696 views | Darth_Koont |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 15:58 - Mar 16 by tractordownsouth |
I'm aware of the favourability ratings and there are definitely some whose' minds have been changed and will be changed if the Tories win the seat, rightly so to some extent.
However, those within the PLP who are suggesting mounting a challenge are Abbott, Burgon, Lavery etc, who have been anti-Starmer since day 1. The fact they're claiming that Starmer falling to his lowest ebb so far of -13 net favourability (which is a concern) is somehow a crisis loses its' credibility when they hero-worshipped a leader who had fallen as low as -51 by July 2019.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/04/voting-intentio |
Sure but the favourability within the party itself is awful. And they’re in relative disarray at a local level too.
And this isn’t against the backdrop of a vaccine boost. Starmer’s figures have been falling since last summer both inside and outside the party.
I’m incredibly unimpressed with him or at least whoever is advising him. Even putting aside the fanatical desire to crush democracy within the party and with it the left, on external matters he’s either wrong or too late to be right. Which is why Johnson has comfortably survived Brexit and the pandemic even before the vaccine boost that will be his Dunkirk moment for years. |  |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 22:56 - Apr 6 with 2550 views | Clapham_Junction |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 15:34 - Mar 16 by Clapham_Junction |
I am less sure, but would love to be proved wrong. Hartlepool seems like the kind of place that would vote Conservative in the new culture war form of politics so I would not be surprised at all to see them win this. |
FFS:
Some of the other polls mentioned on that thread are even more depressing. People want Labour-type policies but won't vote for a party in favour of those things... |  | | |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 23:07 - Apr 6 with 2521 views | StokieBlue |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 22:56 - Apr 6 by Clapham_Junction |
FFS:
Some of the other polls mentioned on that thread are even more depressing. People want Labour-type policies but won't vote for a party in favour of those things... |
It was always going to be this way given the vaccine bounce and peoples collective short memories.
Pretty rubbish numbers for the LD, they are beyond irrelevant now it seems.
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 08:01 - Apr 7 with 2442 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 23:07 - Apr 6 by StokieBlue |
It was always going to be this way given the vaccine bounce and peoples collective short memories.
Pretty rubbish numbers for the LD, they are beyond irrelevant now it seems.
SB |
By election polls can often be all over the place as opposed to national polls. There is also a lot that can happen in a local election that isn’t uniformed across the country.
If anyone uses this as a stick to beat Starmer with then look at the Copeland by election, just three months before the 2017 general election. [Post edited 7 Apr 2021 8:12]
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 08:06 - Apr 7 with 2437 views | StokieBlue |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 08:01 - Apr 7 by GlasgowBlue |
By election polls can often be all over the place as opposed to national polls. There is also a lot that can happen in a local election that isn’t uniformed across the country.
If anyone uses this as a stick to beat Starmer with then look at the Copeland by election, just three months before the 2017 general election. [Post edited 7 Apr 2021 8:12]
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Of course it's going to be used to attack Starmer.
SB | |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 08:14 - Apr 7 with 2422 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 08:06 - Apr 7 by StokieBlue |
Of course it's going to be used to attack Starmer.
SB |
The Corbyn supporters on Twitter are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of losing Hartlepool. | |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 08:38 - Apr 7 with 2399 views | TieDyedIn95 |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 13:26 - Mar 16 by NthQldITFC |
The Brexit Party are getting a little concerned about the rising popularity of a pro-EU Independent, who hails originally from France, apparently.
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The Brexit Party no longer exists though. |  |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 08:59 - Apr 7 with 2382 views | SonOfSpock |
Have you checked out the SDP candidate?
May offer an alternative for blue Labour / red tories and a different protest vote than the LD's etc. |  | | |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:15 - Apr 7 with 2359 views | witchdoctor |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 14:02 - Mar 16 by UB9Blue |
I spend time in Hartlepool as I have a business interest with family in the area and at the last election the only person who we spoke to that was interested in the trying to improve the local economy was the Conservative.
Major decisions are difficult to implement but if there is no chance of things changing why bother with elections |
no one commenting on this? |  | | |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:20 - Apr 7 with 2347 views | Darth_Koont |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 08:06 - Apr 7 by StokieBlue |
Of course it's going to be used to attack Starmer.
SB |
Yep. As it should.
Starmer and his team have been pretty rubbish by any measure while given an easy ride by the media.
It seems they’re just not very good at politics and have no real ideas to fall back on. | |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:21 - Apr 7 with 2341 views | Herbivore |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:20 - Apr 7 by Darth_Koont |
Yep. As it should.
Starmer and his team have been pretty rubbish by any measure while given an easy ride by the media.
It seems they’re just not very good at politics and have no real ideas to fall back on. |
You sound like a bot. |  |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:24 - Apr 7 with 2330 views | Darth_Koont |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:21 - Apr 7 by Herbivore |
You sound like a bot. |
No, I’m calling it as I (and the polling over the last year) see it.
The people who are saying Starmer’s doing well sound like bots. [Post edited 7 Apr 2021 9:25]
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:24 - Apr 7 with 2326 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:20 - Apr 7 by Darth_Koont |
Yep. As it should.
Starmer and his team have been pretty rubbish by any measure while given an easy ride by the media.
It seems they’re just not very good at politics and have no real ideas to fall back on. |
I don’t recall similar comments from you when Labour lost Copeland in 2017. | |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:27 - Apr 7 with 2314 views | J2BLUE |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:24 - Apr 7 by Darth_Koont |
No, I’m calling it as I (and the polling over the last year) see it.
The people who are saying Starmer’s doing well sound like bots. [Post edited 7 Apr 2021 9:25]
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Ahh but he's about to de-mask and start owning Johnson left and right... |  |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:27 - Apr 7 with 2314 views | Herbivore |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:24 - Apr 7 by GlasgowBlue |
I don’t recall similar comments from you when Labour lost Copeland in 2017. |
He doesn't even make similar comments about Corbyn for handing the Tories an 80 seat majority in 2019. | |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:35 - Apr 7 with 2291 views | StokieBlue |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:20 - Apr 7 by Darth_Koont |
Yep. As it should.
Starmer and his team have been pretty rubbish by any measure while given an easy ride by the media.
It seems they’re just not very good at politics and have no real ideas to fall back on. |
To be honest, it's hard to see much difference between your behaviour and that of the "Labour right" and media that you criticise so heavily. Context is ignored because it's not helpful to your point or your paradigm.
This election isn't about Starmer, it's going to be totally about Covid and probably to a lesser extent Brexit being secured. To use it to beat Starmer shows some large degree of motivated reasoning in my view.
SB | |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:40 - Apr 7 with 2281 views | Steve_M |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 23:07 - Apr 6 by StokieBlue |
It was always going to be this way given the vaccine bounce and peoples collective short memories.
Pretty rubbish numbers for the LD, they are beyond irrelevant now it seems.
SB |
As an aside, there's an oddity in terms of Brexit Party voters not remembering/admitting who they voted for (Thread):
Doesn't necessarily affect the poll but the pollsters have tried to account for it. |  |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:42 - Apr 7 with 2266 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:35 - Apr 7 by StokieBlue |
To be honest, it's hard to see much difference between your behaviour and that of the "Labour right" and media that you criticise so heavily. Context is ignored because it's not helpful to your point or your paradigm.
This election isn't about Starmer, it's going to be totally about Covid and probably to a lesser extent Brexit being secured. To use it to beat Starmer shows some large degree of motivated reasoning in my view.
SB |
Think there are many, on the left, hoping that Labour do poorly in this election. |  |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:45 - Apr 7 with 2243 views | Radlett_blue |
Might not be a "sad" result from your point of view if it shows Labour what direction in which they need to head if they are to win the next General Election. By-elections are notoriously hard to read as voters know they aren't electing a government & PM. |  |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:47 - Apr 7 with 2236 views | Darth_Koont |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:24 - Apr 7 by GlasgowBlue |
I don’t recall similar comments from you when Labour lost Copeland in 2017. |
I think we both know what Corbyn was up against in comparison. From attacks and smears in the press to a rebellious PLP. And with Brexit still driving the agenda in this by-election.
What has Starmer been up against apart from own-goals and a lack of political nous? The polling has been going one way since he was given the benefit of the doubt at the start. | |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:51 - Apr 7 with 2210 views | StokieBlue |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:47 - Apr 7 by Darth_Koont |
I think we both know what Corbyn was up against in comparison. From attacks and smears in the press to a rebellious PLP. And with Brexit still driving the agenda in this by-election.
What has Starmer been up against apart from own-goals and a lack of political nous? The polling has been going one way since he was given the benefit of the doubt at the start. |
He's been up against attacks and smears from people like yourself. He's been up against a rebellious left of the party still pining for JC despite a massive defeat.
As I said, it's got to the point where it's hard to see the difference between what you do and what you complain about.
Perhaps it's all too subtle for me.
SB | |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:51 - Apr 7 with 2208 views | chicoazul |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:47 - Apr 7 by Darth_Koont |
I think we both know what Corbyn was up against in comparison. From attacks and smears in the press to a rebellious PLP. And with Brexit still driving the agenda in this by-election.
What has Starmer been up against apart from own-goals and a lack of political nous? The polling has been going one way since he was given the benefit of the doubt at the start. |
Poor old Maximum Leader. Assailed from all sides by treacherous petit bourgeoisie! |  |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 10:04 - Apr 7 with 2170 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:47 - Apr 7 by Darth_Koont |
I think we both know what Corbyn was up against in comparison. From attacks and smears in the press to a rebellious PLP. And with Brexit still driving the agenda in this by-election.
What has Starmer been up against apart from own-goals and a lack of political nous? The polling has been going one way since he was given the benefit of the doubt at the start. |
Too many, on the left, see Starmer as someone who received a knighthood for serving the establishment, so do not regard him as a socialist. | |
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| Hartlepool By-Election on 10:19 - Apr 7 with 2136 views | Herbivore |
| Hartlepool By-Election on 09:47 - Apr 7 by Darth_Koont |
I think we both know what Corbyn was up against in comparison. From attacks and smears in the press to a rebellious PLP. And with Brexit still driving the agenda in this by-election.
What has Starmer been up against apart from own-goals and a lack of political nous? The polling has been going one way since he was given the benefit of the doubt at the start. |
He's been up against people like yourself and those who drank the Corbyn Kool Aid sniping constantly and looking to undermine him at every turn. I've seen very little energy from the Corbynites directed towards attacking this awful Tory government, instead people like yourself have been revelling at the idea of Labour losing Hartlepool. | |
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