| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October 22:12 - Jun 14 with 8790 views | ElderGrizzly |
Even if it was ‘only’ 3,000, so a tenth of one prediction it is horrific.
No wonder they kept this from journalists until after the press briefing
|  | | |  |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:17 - Jun 14 with 3352 views | mikeybloo88 |
I fail to see how this can be true... |  | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:17 - Jun 14 with 3350 views | factual_blue |
Yeah, but we're all bored of restrictions now, and they don't do any good. |  |
| |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:18 - Jun 14 with 3346 views | ElderGrizzly |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:17 - Jun 14 by factual_blue |
Yeah, but we're all bored of restrictions now, and they don't do any good. |
And now redacting data from the JBC
| | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:18 - Jun 14 with 3333 views | StokieBlue |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:17 - Jun 14 by mikeybloo88 |
I fail to see how this can be true... |
Perhaps you should read the paper? It's linked in the post.
SB |  | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:19 - Jun 14 with 3323 views | ElderGrizzly |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:17 - Jun 14 by mikeybloo88 |
I fail to see how this can be true... |
It looks a stretch and makes an assumption on vaccines not being taken up/working for a % of population | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:26 - Jun 14 with 3272 views | blueblueburleymcgrew |
Agreed it’s a worrying scenario but there are other models accompanying this one in the papers released today (Warwick and LSHTM) which project significantly less severe outcomes.
Also some excellent positive data around the efficacy of both Pfizer and AZ vaccines. |  | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:26 - Jun 14 with 3257 views | bazza |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:18 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
Perhaps you should read the paper? It's linked in the post.
SB |
Plenty of if buts and maybes I bet. |  | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:27 - Jun 14 with 3254 views | ElderGrizzly |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:26 - Jun 14 by blueblueburleymcgrew |
Agreed it’s a worrying scenario but there are other models accompanying this one in the papers released today (Warwick and LSHTM) which project significantly less severe outcomes.
Also some excellent positive data around the efficacy of both Pfizer and AZ vaccines. |
Vaccine efficacy is great news. We just need to get as many in people’s arms asap | | | |
Login to get fewer ads
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:28 - Jun 14 with 3241 views | ElderGrizzly |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:26 - Jun 14 by bazza |
Plenty of if buts and maybes I bet. |
Absolutely. It’s trying to predict various scenarios | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:28 - Jun 14 with 3227 views | chrismakin |
As the Vaccine isn't 100% protection against Covid, have they found out what % of covid related illnesses even those vaccinated with 2 jabs can still suffer.
Take flu for example, I get the flu vaccine, i've had flu a couple of times, but obviously not as bad as I may have done without it,
The job of this vaccine is clearly to do the same.. yet Covid of course isnt what kills it's what it does to certain parts of the body in various ways that does.......... so what % of the protection stops the worse parts of covid? ( I hope that makes sense, I know what im trying to say but not sure if that comes across right) [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 22:33]
|  |
| |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:29 - Jun 14 with 3215 views | StokieBlue |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:26 - Jun 14 by bazza |
Plenty of if buts and maybes I bet. |
If by that you mean that the variables used are only quantifiable within a range then you would be right. This type of modelling isn't like a closed-form solution, everything is done within a range.
To dismiss it because of that isn't right.
One could certainly say it's the worst case scenario if they felt that way but even then a range is given.
SB | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:30 - Jun 14 with 3196 views | mikeybloo88 |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:18 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
Perhaps you should read the paper? It's linked in the post.
SB |
If the data shown by Whitty today is true on the vaccine effectiveness, logic would question how likely this scenario could be. Perhaps I've just got scare story fatigue.... | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:32 - Jun 14 with 3176 views | bazza |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:29 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
If by that you mean that the variables used are only quantifiable within a range then you would be right. This type of modelling isn't like a closed-form solution, everything is done within a range.
To dismiss it because of that isn't right.
One could certainly say it's the worst case scenario if they felt that way but even then a range is given.
SB |
If you took out the words, assume, expects, predicts, projections there’s a couple
Of graphs left.. | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:32 - Jun 14 with 3177 views | Trequartista |
Based on what? There were 3 deaths yesterday, and everyone will have had double doses of vaccines that are still highly effective at preventing hospitalisations and deaths by October. |  |
| |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:34 - Jun 14 with 3166 views | ElderGrizzly |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:30 - Jun 14 by mikeybloo88 |
If the data shown by Whitty today is true on the vaccine effectiveness, logic would question how likely this scenario could be. Perhaps I've just got scare story fatigue.... |
It’s not a scare story. It is a report on multiple scenarios.
The vaccine works if you have it. The thread on here earlier shows a significant % are refusing it or still won’t have it for 4 to 6 weeks.
Johnson saying all adults will have one dose by 19th july is significant | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:34 - Jun 14 with 3162 views | StokieBlue |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:30 - Jun 14 by mikeybloo88 |
If the data shown by Whitty today is true on the vaccine effectiveness, logic would question how likely this scenario could be. Perhaps I've just got scare story fatigue.... |
I would say 130,000 deaths is a bit more than a "scary story" but I guess people have different thresholds.
There are many people who either aren't vaccinated or have only had one dose.
SB | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:35 - Jun 14 with 3152 views | ElderGrizzly |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:32 - Jun 14 by Trequartista |
Based on what? There were 3 deaths yesterday, and everyone will have had double doses of vaccines that are still highly effective at preventing hospitalisations and deaths by October. |
Read the paper… | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:36 - Jun 14 with 3139 views | XYZ |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:30 - Jun 14 by mikeybloo88 |
If the data shown by Whitty today is true on the vaccine effectiveness, logic would question how likely this scenario could be. Perhaps I've just got scare story fatigue.... |
So you're claiming that SAGE have put out a paper that doesn't pass the simple logic tests of an amateur internet commentator?
You might want to check your workings. You have some workings, presumably? |  | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:41 - Jun 14 with 3100 views | Trequartista |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:35 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
Read the paper… |
It's wonderful how they can foresee how many deaths there might be in the next 4 months, but couldn't foresee that flying people into the country from India when there was a variant there with cases going through the roof would not cause this f****** mess in the first place. | |
| |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:45 - Jun 14 with 3061 views | StokieBlue |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:41 - Jun 14 by Trequartista |
It's wonderful how they can foresee how many deaths there might be in the next 4 months, but couldn't foresee that flying people into the country from India when there was a variant there with cases going through the roof would not cause this f****** mess in the first place. |
That's pretty harsh.
I'm sure that the modelling recommendation was to close the border earlier (as both of us pointed out) however that was likely a government decision, not based on modelling.
SB | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:46 - Jun 14 with 3044 views | Trequartista |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:27 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
Vaccine efficacy is great news. We just need to get as many in people’s arms asap |
Lowest amount of second doses were given yesterday since the 3rd of May. Advising that the Pfizer & Moderna vaccine is more suitable for the <40s is all very well, but when that supply becomes "lumpy" then what happens? | |
| |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:53 - Jun 14 with 2996 views | Trequartista |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:45 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
That's pretty harsh.
I'm sure that the modelling recommendation was to close the border earlier (as both of us pointed out) however that was likely a government decision, not based on modelling.
SB |
I'm still angry that if someone as ignorant as me could see it, why couldn't they?
We've had numerous briefings from various SAGE, ex-SAGE members, professors etc over the past few weeks warning that we can't lift restrictions. I really don't remember many briefings from these same experts when the Indian cases were escalating to warn they need to go on the red list, and if they did, and the Government ignored them, well then fair enough they are excused from my attack.
"Variant of Interest" they said. [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 22:54]
| |
| |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:58 - Jun 14 with 2928 views | StokieBlue |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:53 - Jun 14 by Trequartista |
I'm still angry that if someone as ignorant as me could see it, why couldn't they?
We've had numerous briefings from various SAGE, ex-SAGE members, professors etc over the past few weeks warning that we can't lift restrictions. I really don't remember many briefings from these same experts when the Indian cases were escalating to warn they need to go on the red list, and if they did, and the Government ignored them, well then fair enough they are excused from my attack.
"Variant of Interest" they said. [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 22:54]
|
I agree, it was an awful decision and we all have a right to be angry about it. In the end it was entirely a political decision because Boris had a trip planned to India to setup a trade deal (which was ultimately cancelled).
I might be wrong but I don't remember SAGE ever brief on what countries should be added to the red list - they have said there are variants of concern but it's always been a (usually awful) political decision based on people wanting to go on holiday or trade deals.
The government deserve both barrels that you're aiming at them though.
SB | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 23:24 - Jun 14 with 2786 views | XYZ |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:58 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
I agree, it was an awful decision and we all have a right to be angry about it. In the end it was entirely a political decision because Boris had a trip planned to India to setup a trade deal (which was ultimately cancelled).
I might be wrong but I don't remember SAGE ever brief on what countries should be added to the red list - they have said there are variants of concern but it's always been a (usually awful) political decision based on people wanting to go on holiday or trade deals.
The government deserve both barrels that you're aiming at them though.
SB |
I think it's the newish and secretive (no public minutes published, no public knowledge of who sits on it ... ) Biosecurity Council (or similar) who decide on the red list - MI6 basically. | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 23:36 - Jun 14 with 2757 views | Guthrum |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:58 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
I agree, it was an awful decision and we all have a right to be angry about it. In the end it was entirely a political decision because Boris had a trip planned to India to setup a trade deal (which was ultimately cancelled).
I might be wrong but I don't remember SAGE ever brief on what countries should be added to the red list - they have said there are variants of concern but it's always been a (usually awful) political decision based on people wanting to go on holiday or trade deals.
The government deserve both barrels that you're aiming at them though.
SB |
It's also true that the chances of completely excluding the Delta Variant by blocking travel from India after it had been identified were quite low. There's a very high likelihood it was here already. Or perhaps it arrived via an infection event in a third country.
With a fast-evolving virus like this, by the time you know there's a problem, it's already too late. |  |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
