| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October 22:12 - Jun 14 with 9035 views | ElderGrizzly |
Even if it was ‘only’ 3,000, so a tenth of one prediction it is horrific.
No wonder they kept this from journalists until after the press briefing
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 23:39 - Jun 14 with 1450 views | StokieBlue |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 23:36 - Jun 14 by Guthrum |
It's also true that the chances of completely excluding the Delta Variant by blocking travel from India after it had been identified were quite low. There's a very high likelihood it was here already. Or perhaps it arrived via an infection event in a third country.
With a fast-evolving virus like this, by the time you know there's a problem, it's already too late. |
That is of course true, however closing the border with India earlier would have slowed the influx of the virus. Most other countries have far less instances of the Delta variant than us and that is probably due to travel between the two countries which could have been curbed far earlier and bought time to vaccinate more people before it took off.
It's clear he wanted his trip to India to go ahead and only cancelled when essentially forced to do so.
SB |  | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 23:45 - Jun 14 with 1445 views | StokieBlue |
This was China's response to one case of the Delta variant being discovered there:
"Perhaps most radical, as was also seen in the initial outbreak of coronavirus in Wuhan, has been China’s approach after its first confirmed case of the Delta variant, in a 75-year-old woman in Liwan, a district of the southern city of Guangzhou, after visiting a restaurant.
It prompted new measures including driverless shuttle vehicles delivering food and supplies to tens of thousands of people in districts that are under a strict lockdown, while a fleet of 60 drones ensures people stay indoors."
SB | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 23:56 - Jun 14 with 1412 views | Guthrum |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 23:39 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
That is of course true, however closing the border with India earlier would have slowed the influx of the virus. Most other countries have far less instances of the Delta variant than us and that is probably due to travel between the two countries which could have been curbed far earlier and bought time to vaccinate more people before it took off.
It's clear he wanted his trip to India to go ahead and only cancelled when essentially forced to do so.
SB |
The UK has more links with the Indian subcontinent than almost any other country - a sizeable chunk of our population has familial and business connections there, travel for which purposes was given some leeway when holidaying wasn't. Thus it arrived earlier and we have more cases (at the moment).
Tho there certainly was a reluctance to close down travel promptly and I'm sure that Johnson's desire to hob-nob with Modi came into it as well. |  |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 23:57 - Jun 14 with 1408 views | factual_blue |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:32 - Jun 14 by bazza |
If you took out the words, assume, expects, predicts, projections there’s a couple
Of graphs left.. |
How would you quantify what will happen in the future if you have to make decisions on how you should respond to those future events?
You could assume, predict and project.
Or you could say, 'it'll be fine. Don't worry about it'.
And then you could have that quote on your headstone. |  |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 00:09 - Jun 15 with 1397 views | factual_blue |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:19 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
It looks a stretch and makes an assumption on vaccines not being taken up/working for a % of population |
Prudence is the key. As an accountant would say 'overestimate your costs, and underestimate your revenues. Do it the other way round, and end up in the bankruptcy court.' | |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 07:17 - Jun 15 with 1316 views | solomon |
Pretty much unbeatable then? Living with it for a long time it seems, perhaps for decades until a real cure is found? |  | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 07:24 - Jun 15 with 1301 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 23:45 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
This was China's response to one case of the Delta variant being discovered there:
"Perhaps most radical, as was also seen in the initial outbreak of coronavirus in Wuhan, has been China’s approach after its first confirmed case of the Delta variant, in a 75-year-old woman in Liwan, a district of the southern city of Guangzhou, after visiting a restaurant.
It prompted new measures including driverless shuttle vehicles delivering food and supplies to tens of thousands of people in districts that are under a strict lockdown, while a fleet of 60 drones ensures people stay indoors."
SB |
Overseen by Judge Dredd? |  |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 07:44 - Jun 15 with 1280 views | homer_123 |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 07:17 - Jun 15 by solomon |
Pretty much unbeatable then? Living with it for a long time it seems, perhaps for decades until a real cure is found? |
This was always the case. It's with us forever. |  |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 07:45 - Jun 15 with 1281 views | homer_123 |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:32 - Jun 14 by Trequartista |
Based on what? There were 3 deaths yesterday, and everyone will have had double doses of vaccines that are still highly effective at preventing hospitalisations and deaths by October. |
95% of Over 50s have been vaccinated.
That leaves hundreds of thousands of people not having had a single vaccine against a virus that is now 50% more transmissible than the Kent variant. | |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 07:47 - Jun 15 with 1282 views | Steve_M |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 07:45 - Jun 15 by homer_123 |
95% of Over 50s have been vaccinated.
That leaves hundreds of thousands of people not having had a single vaccine against a virus that is now 50% more transmissible than the Kent variant. |
Also, the government slipped out yesterday that the vaccination rate seems to be slowing:
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 07:51 - Jun 15 with 1262 views | homer_123 |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 07:47 - Jun 15 by Steve_M |
Also, the government slipped out yesterday that the vaccination rate seems to be slowing:
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Crikeys....I'd missed that one. | |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:10 - Jun 15 with 1245 views | solomon |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 07:44 - Jun 15 by homer_123 |
This was always the case. It's with us forever. |
Will it outrun our scientific ability? Seems to be very good at adapting at a faster pace than we can control, is it here to thin our numbers out? Maybe Mother Nature has decided our time is done. Who knows, seems to be a lot more serious than we are being told. | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:17 - Jun 15 with 1238 views | Guthrum |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:30 - Jun 14 by mikeybloo88 |
If the data shown by Whitty today is true on the vaccine effectiveness, logic would question how likely this scenario could be. Perhaps I've just got scare story fatigue.... |
In reality, we do not yet have enough data on vaccine efficiency against the Delta Variant - how likely it is to reduce hospitalisation and death rates - to make a definite judgement. The numbers are too low at this stage.
But that is partly because there is a time-lag between infection and the illness becoming seious. There has already been a significant uptick in cases. The other graphs may be about to follow. The scary thing about exponential growth is that it goes from a few, to dozens, to hundreds in a very short time.
The one thing we do know to be effectual against Covid 19 is social distancing (and its more extreme form, lockdown). So that has to be used as the primary weapon until more data is available. | |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:18 - Jun 15 with 1235 views | Guthrum |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:10 - Jun 15 by solomon |
Will it outrun our scientific ability? Seems to be very good at adapting at a faster pace than we can control, is it here to thin our numbers out? Maybe Mother Nature has decided our time is done. Who knows, seems to be a lot more serious than we are being told. |
Humans are far keener on squabbling about frontiers and money than coming together to fight existential threats. | |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:30 - Jun 15 with 1213 views | solomon |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:18 - Jun 15 by Guthrum |
Humans are far keener on squabbling about frontiers and money than coming together to fight existential threats. |
To be fair, on the whole many many people have come together to fight this disease, more so than I would ever have thought, seems despite our best efforts maybe we are not winning the fight as much as we thought? | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:37 - Jun 15 with 1193 views | Guthrum |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:30 - Jun 15 by solomon |
To be fair, on the whole many many people have come together to fight this disease, more so than I would ever have thought, seems despite our best efforts maybe we are not winning the fight as much as we thought? |
Governments are still trying to do the minimum possible and businesses pretending things can shortly return to normal. Whereas if facing military invasion, the former would have thrown fiscal caution to the winds and the latter be constrained by law and public opinion. | |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:41 - Jun 15 with 1178 views | lowhouseblue |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 07:47 - Jun 15 by Steve_M |
Also, the government slipped out yesterday that the vaccination rate seems to be slowing:
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aren't they just shifting from 2nd to 1st vaccinations? you can't give someone a 2nd until they've had the 1st. my understanding is they've said everyone over 18 will now be offered the 1st by 19th July |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:44 - Jun 15 with 1158 views | Vic |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:41 - Jun 15 by lowhouseblue |
aren't they just shifting from 2nd to 1st vaccinations? you can't give someone a 2nd until they've had the 1st. my understanding is they've said everyone over 18 will now be offered the 1st by 19th July |
But they need to keep going with 2nd doses to keep within the 12 weeks don’t they? |  |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:50 - Jun 15 with 1137 views | lowhouseblue |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:44 - Jun 15 by Vic |
But they need to keep going with 2nd doses to keep within the 12 weeks don’t they? |
yes but in recent months the balance shifted so that 2nd jabs were the majority, so there must logically come a point where that drops off and 1st doses rise again. otherwise who can you give the 2nd doses to?
my only point is that i haven't seen anything to suggest that the total number of daily doses in going to fall at all. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:54 - Jun 15 with 1134 views | HARRY10 |
I don't think it is the deaths that are of a concern.
Bodies don't take up hospital beds (for long), and don't take up medical resources as do those needing treatment.
It is that blunt. |  | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 09:01 - Jun 15 with 1112 views | ElderGrizzly |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 08:54 - Jun 15 by HARRY10 |
I don't think it is the deaths that are of a concern.
Bodies don't take up hospital beds (for long), and don't take up medical resources as do those needing treatment.
It is that blunt. |
It is exactly this.
I think BlueBadger said, the younger in-patients present a greater challenge than the older, more vulnerable. | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 09:08 - Jun 15 with 1073 views | PrideOfTheEast |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:34 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
It’s not a scare story. It is a report on multiple scenarios.
The vaccine works if you have it. The thread on here earlier shows a significant % are refusing it or still won’t have it for 4 to 6 weeks.
Johnson saying all adults will have one dose by 19th july is significant |
Exactly and that's the message that they really need to enforce. I still don't think that they're communicating brilliantly.
Quite simply - everybody get the thing and then we can almost certainly get back to normal. If they don't then we can't.
Really need to trim the message in the mass communication - people are very confused. [Post edited 15 Jun 2021 9:14]
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 09:13 - Jun 15 with 1062 views | Swansea_Blue |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:32 - Jun 14 by bazza |
If you took out the words, assume, expects, predicts, projections there’s a couple
Of graphs left.. |
Isn't is incredible that even in the 21st Century people haven't developed the ability to accurately predict the future down to the tiniest detail. Poor show really. You'd thought we'd have that and time travel sorted by now. |  |
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| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 09:15 - Jun 15 with 1058 views | Tonytown |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 22:53 - Jun 14 by Trequartista |
I'm still angry that if someone as ignorant as me could see it, why couldn't they?
We've had numerous briefings from various SAGE, ex-SAGE members, professors etc over the past few weeks warning that we can't lift restrictions. I really don't remember many briefings from these same experts when the Indian cases were escalating to warn they need to go on the red list, and if they did, and the Government ignored them, well then fair enough they are excused from my attack.
"Variant of Interest" they said. [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 22:54]
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It’s not SAGE it’s this government.
Advisors advise, governments decide.
Don’t blame experts, blame your government.
The Delta variant is widespread here rather than other places because of that trade trip to India that Johnson was desperate to make.
Let’s hope that the vaccine proves to be effective against it otherwise we are in for a lot more deaths and a longer lockdown.
Although at the moment we can do most things really, it’s just reduced capacity gigs and sport and no nightclubbing. | | | |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 09:24 - Jun 15 with 1048 views | Swansea_Blue |
| SAGE saying even with delay we could see more than 30k deaths by October on 23:45 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
This was China's response to one case of the Delta variant being discovered there:
"Perhaps most radical, as was also seen in the initial outbreak of coronavirus in Wuhan, has been China’s approach after its first confirmed case of the Delta variant, in a 75-year-old woman in Liwan, a district of the southern city of Guangzhou, after visiting a restaurant.
It prompted new measures including driverless shuttle vehicles delivering food and supplies to tens of thousands of people in districts that are under a strict lockdown, while a fleet of 60 drones ensures people stay indoors."
SB |
Didn't Australia do similar with Melbourne? I think they're struggling to keep a lid on it with cases in the many tens now, but they went into hard lockdown with much stricter controls than we have after only a couple of cases were identified.
We had over 2,500 cases identified before India was even added to the red list, despite knowing that about half of those cases were imported directly from India. It would be hard to stop completely, but we could have done so much more to limit the spread. | |
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