| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September 17:20 - Jul 19 with 14253 views | ElderGrizzly |
For large events, such as football.
So vaccine proof/testing here to stay at Portman Road for a while yet.
Our understanding is a test will be allowed for exemptions, so this isn't quite correct. [Post edited 19 Jul 2021 17:22]
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:49 - Jul 20 with 739 views | StokieBlue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:27 - Jul 20 by xrayspecs |
Why are you mis-representing my posts?
You posted....
"Which is this case is ignore most of the modelling data and lie about the number of probable cases.
Javid has said 100,000 by the end of August so many times to try and make it fact but as it stands we are looking at that in less than 11 days.
They aren't following the data, they are doing what is driven by their ideology.
SB"
I said in response to your claim that it was all about ideology.
"You are welcome to your opinion, but try not to present it as fact.
A few points regarding the uncertainty
- cases in England jumped significantly during the Euros, especially around England games. Cases have been falling in recent days.
- Scotland, Wales and Ireland have not seen the same upward trajectory over recent weeks as England.
- So while trend may be upward, recent data is very likely skewed by the football.
- While restrictions were lifted today, a lot of folk continue to observe social distancing rules/wear masks. I would expect this to continue
- Clubs/venues, including ITFC are introducing measures to mitigate risk.
My point is that it is more nuanced than you are claiming.
On the government, I am close to a lot of the modelling work and have some awareness of what is being discussed. It is more balanced, pragmatic and nuanced than you believe."
So, my comment about nuance was that in looking at the modelling, there are a number of factors to take into account, including some which are temporal. So, yes, a more nuanced approach than your claim that it is just ideology.
The modelling is based on behavioural science, how people are expected to respond. If they do not act responsibly, then all bets are off. What is difficult to understand?
You can either ask/trust the public to do the right thing, or you take away their liberties. I would like to trust the public, you?
Your claim that the strategy is based on guesswork and hope is incorrect. As for your last paragraph, I despair.
The ball is in your court. If you want to have a sensible discussion, then PM me. If you do not, then no problem,. |
"The ball is in your court. If you want to have a sensible discussion, then PM me. If you do not, then no problem,."
I'm having a perfectly sensible discussion, there was nothing inconsistent in what I posted and I've not misrepresented you in my opinion. You made a number of points to claim it wasn't ideology and those points were countered by numerous posters. You specifically claimed the modelling was more nuanced in your final sentence in the paragraph you just reposted. That is how it reads, perhaps it's not what you meant?
I do think you're very dismissive of anyone who doesn't agree with the government line.
"The modelling is based on behavioural science, how people are expected to respond. If they do not act responsibly, then all bets are off. What is difficult to understand?
You can either ask/trust the public to do the right thing, or you take away their liberties. I would like to trust the public, you?"
No I wouldn't. I would like to trust the scientists and the modellers who said that the restrictions shouldn't have been eased because the transmission is currently too high. I would prefer to trust the 1200 scientist who said the government policy was an immoral experiment. You seem upset that people are questioning the policy or have a different view.
To trust the outcome of modelling to an unknown "behaviour element" is ridiculous when you can remove that variable entirely by keeping restrictions (which weren't that harsh anyway - saying "taking away their liberties" also looks purely ideological) and then go off the actual modelled numbers rather than an unpredictable outcome. If they were going to implement vaccine passports anyway then that would have given more time to get everyone vaccinated and passports up and running before easing restrictions.
You've acknowledged that the government already have a ready made excuse if/when it goes wrong as they will blame public behaviour.
"As for your last paragraph, I despair."
Your "despair" is an opinion. I am sure many people feel the way I have outlined. Just because you don't feel that way it doesn't make it wrong.
We can leave it there if you prefer and come back to this in 2 months and see how it all went.
SB [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 23:50]
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 00:29 - Jul 21 with 707 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 22:50 - Jul 20 by xrayspecs |
We are looking at inflection points and the data at the end of last week was suggesting that the increases were slowing down. We had a number of days where the daily number of cases were pretty much the same.
We know that the Euros have been a factor in driving England cases, people meeting to watch the games rather than transmission at the stadium. Euro 2020 related infection increases are now behind us, so that growth driver will now turn negative. Schools, as I said, are a problem, but that will ease over the next week or two as we hit the summer holidays as individual contact rates fall.
Where we go next will depend on how people treat their new freedoms. |
Can you produce a chart which shows 'a number of days where the daily number of cases are pretty much the same'? You are just giving opinion to counter the facts until you do so. There is usually a lag of 5-10 days between spreader events and infection numbers so I look forward to see what the end of the Euros brings in reduced figures if your contention is correct. |  | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 07:50 - Jul 21 with 638 views | DanTheMan |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 22:50 - Jul 20 by xrayspecs |
We are looking at inflection points and the data at the end of last week was suggesting that the increases were slowing down. We had a number of days where the daily number of cases were pretty much the same.
We know that the Euros have been a factor in driving England cases, people meeting to watch the games rather than transmission at the stadium. Euro 2020 related infection increases are now behind us, so that growth driver will now turn negative. Schools, as I said, are a problem, but that will ease over the next week or two as we hit the summer holidays as individual contact rates fall.
Where we go next will depend on how people treat their new freedoms. |
So we're talking about the daily percentage increases now?
Just to note, that is clearly not what you said in your original post which is somewhat ironic when you accused SB of not presenting facts.
In which case, over the 7 day period ones. Note, this is by specimen date.
I'm not seeing a flatlining of cases here either. The amount of percentage change over the past 7 days has risen and fallen twice in June and July, with the current data suggesting it may be going back up again.
Even on the log graph, which if there was a slow down in increase should show it, I'm not seeing it at all.
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:12 - Jul 21 with 620 views | pointofblue |
I just read France are initiating a passport or negative test scheme today. Not in six weeks time, today.
As always, we’re behind the times. |  |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:55 - Jul 21 with 584 views | xrayspecs |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 00:29 - Jul 21 by Eireannach_gorm |
Can you produce a chart which shows 'a number of days where the daily number of cases are pretty much the same'? You are just giving opinion to counter the facts until you do so. There is usually a lag of 5-10 days between spreader events and infection numbers so I look forward to see what the end of the Euros brings in reduced figures if your contention is correct. |
England: cases by specimen date, daily percentage change in seven-day moving average. You can see the increase in rates between 12 and 28 June and how these slowed from 29 June to 11 July. Daily cases on 1 July was 28k and on 11 July 30k (ranged between 23k and 37k), hence my comments about the data levelling-off/flat-lining.
11/07/2021 2%
10/07/2021 2%
09/07/2021 3%
08/07/2021 2%
07/07/2021 5%
06/07/2021 4%
05/07/2021 3%
04/07/2021 4%
03/07/2021 4%
02/07/2021 5%
01/07/2021 6%
30/06/2021 7%
29/06/2021 8%
28/06/2021 10%
27/06/2021 7%
26/06/2021 7%
25/06/2021 8%
24/06/2021 8%
23/06/2021 9%
22/06/2021 9%
21/06/2021 8%
20/06/2021 4%
19/06/2021 3%
18/06/2021 4%
17/06/2021 5%
16/06/2021 5%
15/06/2021 5%
14/06/2021 5%
13/06/2021 3%
12/06/2021 3%
Important also to understand the demongraphics and dynamics when looking at the numbers.We know that a lot of the cases earlier this summer were driven by school children (a slow burn) and young adults (18-24). During Euros males 20-40 were a big growth driver.
Schools are about to break for the summer, albeit lots of kids have been isolating over the last month or so. Euros related infections are likely to already be in the numbers as incubation period seems to be closer to five days than ten. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 12:21 - Jul 21 with 506 views | DanTheMan |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:55 - Jul 21 by xrayspecs |
England: cases by specimen date, daily percentage change in seven-day moving average. You can see the increase in rates between 12 and 28 June and how these slowed from 29 June to 11 July. Daily cases on 1 July was 28k and on 11 July 30k (ranged between 23k and 37k), hence my comments about the data levelling-off/flat-lining.
11/07/2021 2%
10/07/2021 2%
09/07/2021 3%
08/07/2021 2%
07/07/2021 5%
06/07/2021 4%
05/07/2021 3%
04/07/2021 4%
03/07/2021 4%
02/07/2021 5%
01/07/2021 6%
30/06/2021 7%
29/06/2021 8%
28/06/2021 10%
27/06/2021 7%
26/06/2021 7%
25/06/2021 8%
24/06/2021 8%
23/06/2021 9%
22/06/2021 9%
21/06/2021 8%
20/06/2021 4%
19/06/2021 3%
18/06/2021 4%
17/06/2021 5%
16/06/2021 5%
15/06/2021 5%
14/06/2021 5%
13/06/2021 3%
12/06/2021 3%
Important also to understand the demongraphics and dynamics when looking at the numbers.We know that a lot of the cases earlier this summer were driven by school children (a slow burn) and young adults (18-24). During Euros males 20-40 were a big growth driver.
Schools are about to break for the summer, albeit lots of kids have been isolating over the last month or so. Euros related infections are likely to already be in the numbers as incubation period seems to be closer to five days than ten. |
That is still not cases flat lining. I wouldn't expect an exponential increase in the rate of change day to day.
So bringing it all the way back to your original point, which is what I was focussing on, cases are not flat lining. They are increasing, daily. | |
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| If we did it today then..... on 12:25 - Jul 21 with 490 views | Bloots |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:12 - Jul 21 by pointofblue |
I just read France are initiating a passport or negative test scheme today. Not in six weeks time, today.
As always, we’re behind the times. |
....everyone under 30 would kick off massively.
You have to remember a large proportion of the UK population are divs. |  |
| "The sooner he comes back the better, this place has been a disaster without him" - TWTD User (July 2025) |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 20:33 - Jul 25 with 386 views | xrayspecs |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 12:21 - Jul 21 by DanTheMan |
That is still not cases flat lining. I wouldn't expect an exponential increase in the rate of change day to day.
So bringing it all the way back to your original point, which is what I was focussing on, cases are not flat lining. They are increasing, daily. |
SB, Dan
As I said, you need to follow the trends and look for inflection points by age groups, rather than total figures. The dynamics are really important as the infection drivers are linked to specific parts of the population rather than all of us equally.
Infection rates were driven over recent months by school-age children, and then young males during Euro 2020. Both are no longer risk factors.
We have been trending down for about a couple of weeks since Euro 2020 ended. I admit the official figures showed a reduction in increases from around 9% per day to 1% per day, so you are right they are still going up. But if you understand the data, you can see rates were flat-lining and are now falling and understand why.
Rates could yet go up again after the removal of social distancing rules. My experience of the last week, is that the majority of folk in public spaces are still following the rules, which will help mitigate risk.
The further we get into the summer, the more folk will be double jabbed and the risk of serious infection will fall. We can expect an increase in school age children when they return in September.
We also need to be alert, the gamma variant looks like it could evade the vaccines. It is not in the UK at the moment, so precautions at the border remain critical. [Post edited 25 Jul 2021 20:39]
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