| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September 17:20 - Jul 19 with 14265 views | ElderGrizzly |
For large events, such as football.
So vaccine proof/testing here to stay at Portman Road for a while yet.
Our understanding is a test will be allowed for exemptions, so this isn't quite correct. [Post edited 19 Jul 2021 17:22]
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| Be happy then..... on 22:21 - Jul 19 with 2503 views | DinDjarin |
| Be happy then..... on 21:39 - Jul 19 by Bloots |
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Bit of a schoolboy error to make on live TV on something so serious? |  | | |
| Yep, bleedin scientists. (n/t) on 22:22 - Jul 19 with 2498 views | Bloots |
| Be happy then..... on 22:21 - Jul 19 by DinDjarin |
Bit of a schoolboy error to make on live TV on something so serious? |
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| "The sooner he comes back the better, this place has been a disaster without him" - TWTD User (July 2025) |
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| Be happy then..... on 22:35 - Jul 19 with 2462 views | xrayspecs |
| Be happy then..... on 22:21 - Jul 19 by DinDjarin |
Bit of a schoolboy error to make on live TV on something so serious? |
Have you done live TV/radio?
Very easy to get things wrong, especially when you are off-script as will be the case with a live Q&A. |  | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 22:46 - Jul 19 with 2440 views | BrightonBlue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 17:41 - Jul 19 by chicoazul |
Attn, broadcast from UK Gov central: pregnant women those with MH issues asthmatics some religious people many people who work in social care & the NHS; Fck you. |
Asthmatics?! Weren’t they in the JVCI priority list?!
Think you need to give your head a wobble. |  | | |
| Be happy then..... on 23:09 - Jul 19 with 2404 views | DinDjarin |
| Be happy then..... on 22:35 - Jul 19 by xrayspecs |
Have you done live TV/radio?
Very easy to get things wrong, especially when you are off-script as will be the case with a live Q&A. |
Even though he spent the next few minutes explaining away the 60% remark?
And noone else picked him up on it?
He has sent twitter and facebook into meltdown and the position he is in it is inexcusable to make such an error on something that is so factually important. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:10 - Jul 19 with 2397 views | StokieBlue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 19:52 - Jul 19 by Digger77 |
In the words of Tracy Chapman...
If not now, then when? |
Wow, you've managed to make a post rather than just constantly downvoting people.
Well done.
SB |  |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:17 - Jul 19 with 2388 views | StokieBlue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 19:48 - Jul 19 by xrayspecs |
You are welcome to your opinion, but try not to present it as fact.
A few points regarding the uncertainty
- cases in England jumped significantly during the Euros, especially around England games. Cases have been falling in recent days.
- Scotland, Wales and Ireland have not seen the same upward trajectory over recent weeks as England.
- So while trend may be upward, recent data is very likely skewed by the football.
- While restrictions were lifted today, a lot of folk continue to observe social distancing rules/wear masks. I would expect this to continue
- Clubs/venues, including ITFC are introducing measures to mitigate risk.
My point is that it is more nuanced than you are claiming.
On the government, I am close to a lot of the modelling work and have some awareness of what is being discussed. It is more balanced, pragmatic and nuanced than you believe. |
Whilst I don't doubt you are close to the modelling and have some extra knowledge I am also somewhat familiar with models (although nowhere near as much as you I am sure) and have read a lot of what is publicly available.
You are presenting a very rosy picture towards the lower bounds of much of the modelling which would not seem a very conservative approach to take. For instance, Scotland was still in tougher restrictions than England over that period so one would not expect them to show the same trajectory in cases. You've made a number of other assumptions in your points which I am pretty sure you would have objected to if I had done likewise but with a less rosy outlook.
I'm not as optimistic as you, the Imperial modelling is showing that 100,000 is likely within a short time frame and it could easily far exceed that. The government continually push 100,000 by the end of August as some form of long-term maximum when the current trajectory doesn't bear that out.
I guess we will have to wait and see, I certainly hope you are right and the model the government have selected is right, otherwise it's going to be far from ideal. I'd be pleased to be proven wrong.
SB | |
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| Be happy then..... on 23:31 - Jul 19 with 2375 views | xrayspecs |
| Be happy then..... on 23:09 - Jul 19 by DinDjarin |
Even though he spent the next few minutes explaining away the 60% remark?
And noone else picked him up on it?
He has sent twitter and facebook into meltdown and the position he is in it is inexcusable to make such an error on something that is so factually important. |
Done both. Simply do not rule out human error.
I know Patrick and he is a very accomplished public speaker. He.like all of us, can make mistakes. | | | |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:36 - Jul 19 with 2370 views | xrayspecs |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:17 - Jul 19 by StokieBlue |
Whilst I don't doubt you are close to the modelling and have some extra knowledge I am also somewhat familiar with models (although nowhere near as much as you I am sure) and have read a lot of what is publicly available.
You are presenting a very rosy picture towards the lower bounds of much of the modelling which would not seem a very conservative approach to take. For instance, Scotland was still in tougher restrictions than England over that period so one would not expect them to show the same trajectory in cases. You've made a number of other assumptions in your points which I am pretty sure you would have objected to if I had done likewise but with a less rosy outlook.
I'm not as optimistic as you, the Imperial modelling is showing that 100,000 is likely within a short time frame and it could easily far exceed that. The government continually push 100,000 by the end of August as some form of long-term maximum when the current trajectory doesn't bear that out.
I guess we will have to wait and see, I certainly hope you are right and the model the government have selected is right, otherwise it's going to be far from ideal. I'd be pleased to be proven wrong.
SB |
Infections are not the issue, hospitalisations are.
Not presenting a rosy picture, I suspect that we are living with this for the next two to three years.
I have little confidence in the government, but I would say that their decisions making is ok to date. Not as bad as many want to claim, but ok. [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 8:09]
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:47 - Jul 19 with 2360 views | giant_stow |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:36 - Jul 19 by xrayspecs |
Infections are not the issue, hospitalisations are.
Not presenting a rosy picture, I suspect that we are living with this for the next two to three years.
I have little confidence in the government, but I would say that their decisions making is ok to date. Not as bad as many want to claim, but ok. [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 8:09]
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Just to pick on something you said there, what changes in 2 or 3 years time which ends the pandemic? |  |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:50 - Jul 19 with 2353 views | StokieBlue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:36 - Jul 19 by xrayspecs |
Infections are not the issue, hospitalisations are.
Not presenting a rosy picture, I suspect that we are living with this for the next two to three years.
I have little confidence in the government, but I would say that their decisions making is ok to date. Not as bad as many want to claim, but ok. [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 8:09]
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Once again that is not entirely true. You are looking at it entirely from an NHS capacity viewpoint. From that viewpoint hospitalisations are clearly the issue but infections are important as they will result in a lot of long covid cases, probably ~5% which is going to work out at 5000 per day on current mid-level infections.
The government is essentially ignoring this side of infections but all these people are going to require NHS resources going forward until theories about the origins of long covid are confirmed (there are some interesting studies on this) and treatments created.
If the only concern is NHS capacity then you have a point and I honestly hope you are correct but even with this I am not optimistic. I guess we will have to wait 6 weeks and see which models were most accurate. It's also not taking into account other infections which are rising quickly due to everything being more open such as Norovirus. These infections have a much lower R0 than C19 and thus they have been kept entirely at bay by the C19 restrictions but since they are gone we are going to have an increase in those and some increase on the NHS due to that.
I think you're going to have a hard-sell to get many to agree the decision making thus far has been "ok to date".
SB | |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 00:08 - Jul 20 with 2327 views | XYZ |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:50 - Jul 19 by StokieBlue |
Once again that is not entirely true. You are looking at it entirely from an NHS capacity viewpoint. From that viewpoint hospitalisations are clearly the issue but infections are important as they will result in a lot of long covid cases, probably ~5% which is going to work out at 5000 per day on current mid-level infections.
The government is essentially ignoring this side of infections but all these people are going to require NHS resources going forward until theories about the origins of long covid are confirmed (there are some interesting studies on this) and treatments created.
If the only concern is NHS capacity then you have a point and I honestly hope you are correct but even with this I am not optimistic. I guess we will have to wait 6 weeks and see which models were most accurate. It's also not taking into account other infections which are rising quickly due to everything being more open such as Norovirus. These infections have a much lower R0 than C19 and thus they have been kept entirely at bay by the C19 restrictions but since they are gone we are going to have an increase in those and some increase on the NHS due to that.
I think you're going to have a hard-sell to get many to agree the decision making thus far has been "ok to date".
SB |
The "ok to date" comment says a lot.
Without expanding at length, it's political spin.
100,000 avoidable deaths is not "OK".
September 2020, Starmer calls for a circuit-breaker - Johnson made the usual vacuous taunt.
We all know what happened and it wasn't "OK".
It's time the UK got serious about zero Covid and total vaccination. But it won't because it's not populist and it's difficult. It is, however, the best long-term health and economic approach. The alternative is another 2 years of stop-start. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 02:02 - Jul 20 with 2275 views | textbackup |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 18:02 - Jul 19 by Illinoisblue |
Oh boy, going to be chaos getting into grounds. Feel bad for the stewards who will have to police this. What a mess. |
if they are anything like the wembley stewards you'll be fine getting in, for semi, and final, I flashed a text at them from my nanny to get past the "covid safe" check.
(double jabbed and negative on all 4/5 tests taken before I attended, but wanted to see how closely they checked) |  |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 02:12 - Jul 20 with 2268 views | textbackup |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 19:23 - Jul 19 by EddyJ |
Good move from the government.
I don't want to risk having un-vaccinated people near me, unless they have a valid medical exemption.
Getting a vaccination is a civic duty to protect those around you who are vulnerable or unable to get a vaccination themselves. |
vaccinated or not, you can still pass it on.... cant you?! | |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 07:36 - Jul 20 with 2213 views | xrayspecs |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:47 - Jul 19 by giant_stow |
Just to pick on something you said there, what changes in 2 or 3 years time which ends the pandemic? |
History shows that global pandemics normally take a few years to burn out.
They normally end because the predominant mutations become less severe. [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 8:08]
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 07:38 - Jul 20 with 2210 views | DanTheMan |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:36 - Jul 19 by xrayspecs |
Infections are not the issue, hospitalisations are.
Not presenting a rosy picture, I suspect that we are living with this for the next two to three years.
I have little confidence in the government, but I would say that their decisions making is ok to date. Not as bad as many want to claim, but ok. [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 8:09]
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I enjoy how you've completely ignored my post about the apparently flatlining daily statistics. |  |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 07:41 - Jul 20 with 2204 views | StokieBlue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 07:36 - Jul 20 by xrayspecs |
History shows that global pandemics normally take a few years to burn out.
They normally end because the predominant mutations become less severe. [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 8:08]
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Whilst that is true a lot of those pandemics had lower r0 values. There is quite a bit of scope for C19 to become more severe whilst still being infectious enough to infect other hosts before damage is done. As it stands it's nowhere near as severe as SARS but far more infectious so it doesn't need to take the weakening route to become more likely to pass onto new hosts.
Vaccinations and thus lowering the pool of active virus which can mutate is surely the way out of this rather than banking on some totally unpredictable future mutations?
It's of course possible it will weaken over the next few years, it's also entirely possible it won't.
SB [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 7:43]
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 07:57 - Jul 20 with 2169 views | xrayspecs |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:50 - Jul 19 by StokieBlue |
Once again that is not entirely true. You are looking at it entirely from an NHS capacity viewpoint. From that viewpoint hospitalisations are clearly the issue but infections are important as they will result in a lot of long covid cases, probably ~5% which is going to work out at 5000 per day on current mid-level infections.
The government is essentially ignoring this side of infections but all these people are going to require NHS resources going forward until theories about the origins of long covid are confirmed (there are some interesting studies on this) and treatments created.
If the only concern is NHS capacity then you have a point and I honestly hope you are correct but even with this I am not optimistic. I guess we will have to wait 6 weeks and see which models were most accurate. It's also not taking into account other infections which are rising quickly due to everything being more open such as Norovirus. These infections have a much lower R0 than C19 and thus they have been kept entirely at bay by the C19 restrictions but since they are gone we are going to have an increase in those and some increase on the NHS due to that.
I think you're going to have a hard-sell to get many to agree the decision making thus far has been "ok to date".
SB |
That is a fair point. The government focus is on NHS capacity, including the impact it has on non-Covid care. Waiting lists are through the roof and we can reasonably expect death rates from cancer, heart disease etc. to increase in the near term as patient care has been delayed, screening programmes suspended. Witty has spoken quite a lot at the podium about how Covid is stopping patients getting the treatments they need.
We are expecting a bad flu season this winter as very few folk got it last year and immunity levels have dropped. Norovirus is also expected to be bad over the coming months.
Some of the decision making has been flawed, including delays in locking down last March and a lot of our travel policies, which was the source of the first wave of infection. There is no government playbook (here or in any other country) so they are having to make it up as they go.
There is also pragmatism in the decision making, hence wanting to remove restrictions over the summer. As you say, it is not just about preventing ill health, it is about letting people live as normal lives as possible. "Ok" was meant as a lukewarm endorsement rather than a glowing recommendation.
I have a daughter who did not sit her GCSEs, did not have a Prom, has spent most of the last year being taught on line at home, who has had to self-isolate most of June and is not yet old enough for a jab. It has been pretty crap for so many people, so I do understand why the government are keen to let people have some of their lives back. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 07:59 - Jul 20 with 2162 views | giant_stow |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 07:36 - Jul 20 by xrayspecs |
History shows that global pandemics normally take a few years to burn out.
They normally end because the predominant mutations become less severe. [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 8:08]
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Interesting, ta.
Edit: as was stokie's follow up. Good debate. [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 8:02]
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:00 - Jul 20 with 2161 views | xrayspecs |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 07:38 - Jul 20 by DanTheMan |
I enjoy how you've completely ignored my post about the apparently flatlining daily statistics. |
I addressed it in another post. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:05 - Jul 20 with 2156 views | mikeybloo88 |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 02:12 - Jul 20 by textbackup |
vaccinated or not, you can still pass it on.... cant you?! |
If you are double jabbed, the chances of you catching the virus are reduced by 80% and of being hospitalised by 96%, and the viral load you could pass on is reduced significantly, so chance of transmission is definitely reduced with the risk of transmission between two double jabbed people reducing by two thirds. If you have a venue full of double jabbed people, the chance of covid being present is low, the chance of transmission if it is present is low and the chance of anyone getting very ill if they do happen to catch it is low. What's not to like about that? |  | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:07 - Jul 20 with 2154 views | xrayspecs |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 07:41 - Jul 20 by StokieBlue |
Whilst that is true a lot of those pandemics had lower r0 values. There is quite a bit of scope for C19 to become more severe whilst still being infectious enough to infect other hosts before damage is done. As it stands it's nowhere near as severe as SARS but far more infectious so it doesn't need to take the weakening route to become more likely to pass onto new hosts.
Vaccinations and thus lowering the pool of active virus which can mutate is surely the way out of this rather than banking on some totally unpredictable future mutations?
It's of course possible it will weaken over the next few years, it's also entirely possible it won't.
SB [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 7:43]
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For previous pandemics, there were no vaccines, they just burn out over time.
Equally, if vaccines inhibit the more serious variants, then less severe variants that escape the vaccines, can predominate. What we have seen so far is that all the mutations suppress the interferon response (your body's natural defence to infection), which is why the elderly and frail are disproportionately affected.
There are some interesting therapeutics in development including an inhaled interferon alpha which can attack the infection in the lungs before it takes hold.
I suspect it will be a mixture of vaccinations (there are a lot more being developed to tackle known variants, of which there currently around 20, we have gone a long way beyond delta), therapeutics and changes to how we live our lives (face coverings in public places) which will see us out of this. No idea how long this will take but it is certainly not over yet. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:09 - Jul 20 with 2148 views | DanTheMan |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:00 - Jul 20 by xrayspecs |
I addressed it in another post. |
You'll have to point out where, I can see nowhere where you've shown other data showing cases flat lining. Apologies if I've missed it. | |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:14 - Jul 20 with 2140 views | lazyblue |
Absolutely no problem with this and makes perfect sense, I went to The Open and with 32,000 people each day it worked perfectly for ALL ages. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:55 - Jul 20 with 2084 views | Gogs |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:50 - Jul 19 by StokieBlue |
Once again that is not entirely true. You are looking at it entirely from an NHS capacity viewpoint. From that viewpoint hospitalisations are clearly the issue but infections are important as they will result in a lot of long covid cases, probably ~5% which is going to work out at 5000 per day on current mid-level infections.
The government is essentially ignoring this side of infections but all these people are going to require NHS resources going forward until theories about the origins of long covid are confirmed (there are some interesting studies on this) and treatments created.
If the only concern is NHS capacity then you have a point and I honestly hope you are correct but even with this I am not optimistic. I guess we will have to wait 6 weeks and see which models were most accurate. It's also not taking into account other infections which are rising quickly due to everything being more open such as Norovirus. These infections have a much lower R0 than C19 and thus they have been kept entirely at bay by the C19 restrictions but since they are gone we are going to have an increase in those and some increase on the NHS due to that.
I think you're going to have a hard-sell to get many to agree the decision making thus far has been "ok to date".
SB |
Just a point of interest, I’m pretty sure norovirus has a higher natural r0 than c19. Big variance, but a quick google search will bring up numbers from a little over one to 14+, with most somewhere in the middle of that range. I know when I got it about 12 years ago, loads of people I knew got it too. |  | | |
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