| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September 17:20 - Jul 19 with 14272 views | ElderGrizzly |
For large events, such as football.
So vaccine proof/testing here to stay at Portman Road for a while yet.
Our understanding is a test will be allowed for exemptions, so this isn't quite correct. [Post edited 19 Jul 2021 17:22]
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 09:01 - Jul 20 with 1654 views | DinDjarin |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:05 - Jul 20 by mikeybloo88 |
If you are double jabbed, the chances of you catching the virus are reduced by 80% and of being hospitalised by 96%, and the viral load you could pass on is reduced significantly, so chance of transmission is definitely reduced with the risk of transmission between two double jabbed people reducing by two thirds. If you have a venue full of double jabbed people, the chance of covid being present is low, the chance of transmission if it is present is low and the chance of anyone getting very ill if they do happen to catch it is low. What's not to like about that? |
Not sure those stats still hold up. |  | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 09:23 - Jul 20 with 1608 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 19:48 - Jul 19 by xrayspecs |
You are welcome to your opinion, but try not to present it as fact.
A few points regarding the uncertainty
- cases in England jumped significantly during the Euros, especially around England games. Cases have been falling in recent days.
- Scotland, Wales and Ireland have not seen the same upward trajectory over recent weeks as England.
- So while trend may be upward, recent data is very likely skewed by the football.
- While restrictions were lifted today, a lot of folk continue to observe social distancing rules/wear masks. I would expect this to continue
- Clubs/venues, including ITFC are introducing measures to mitigate risk.
My point is that it is more nuanced than you are claiming.
On the government, I am close to a lot of the modelling work and have some awareness of what is being discussed. It is more balanced, pragmatic and nuanced than you believe. |
Oh boy. Just re-read what you wrote:
"- cases in England jumped significantly during the Euros, especially around England games."
Which is to say, cases in England jumped when large groups of people congregated in public squares, pubs were full and people went round each others houses for barbecues and beer.
CASES JUMPED.
We now have "Freedom Day" messaging from the Government, and all those things above will be (currently) legal and pretty much unrestricted for SIX WEEKS.
It's going to be carnage. And it's a choice, both in terms of policy and in terms of "Freedom Day" messaging.
Blood on their hands, again. |  | | |
| Be happy then..... on 09:34 - Jul 20 with 1586 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Be happy then..... on 21:39 - Jul 19 by Bloots |
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This is very big news. With the vast majority of adults being vaccinated, and a minority not being, this gives absolute proof that vaccination is working. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 09:37 - Jul 20 with 1581 views | braveblue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 17:27 - Jul 19 by Kieran_Knows |
I presume government/football clubs will be refunding people who have purchased season tickets and haven’t had the jab/only had 1 dose then?
Farcical. |
Farcical in what way? If you decide to be anti social and refuse the jab then you will need to accept the consequences. Very few countries will let you in without vaccination. It’s just common sense. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 09:38 - Jul 20 with 1580 views | braveblue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 17:38 - Jul 19 by StokieBlue |
If it's needed from September why isn't it needed now?
I know not everyone is double-jabbed but if it's not safe to go without two jabs why are we opening up?
It's just another contradiction.
SB |
It’s common sense. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 09:40 - Jul 20 with 1573 views | braveblue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 17:42 - Jul 19 by Kieran_Knows |
I didn’t mention about people refusing for it. All well and good saying ‘everyone will have been offered the vaccine by then’, but circumstances sometimes mean people can’t make appointments until certain times etc, so what about those people?
What about my missus for example. Who is 19 weeks pregnant (will roughly be about 30 weeks pregnant at the end of September) and has been told various things by doctors/nurses/GP’s about whether the vaccine is safe for her to get (she’s not having in as a precaution, but will get jabbed in January once baby is here). Obviously she won’t be drinking and going clubbing, but what constitutes a large event? So many grey areas. |
Head of midwifes very clear that the jab is safe. Personal choice not to have it. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 09:41 - Jul 20 with 1566 views | mikeybloo88 |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 09:01 - Jul 20 by DinDjarin |
Not sure those stats still hold up. |
The numbers came from the scientific expert on Sky this morning and the two thirds stat was from Vallance last week. Even if the numbers vary slightly from week to week, the theory and conclusion still holds... |  | | |
| Be happy then..... on 09:46 - Jul 20 with 1554 views | mikeybloo88 |
| Be happy then..... on 09:34 - Jul 20 by ArnoldMoorhen |
This is very big news. With the vast majority of adults being vaccinated, and a minority not being, this gives absolute proof that vaccination is working. |
Not that we needed it, but yes, no one can argue now that they don't stop you getting badly ill or that your chances are better by not getting jabbed. | | | |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 10:11 - Jul 20 with 1525 views | StokieBlue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 08:55 - Jul 20 by Gogs |
Just a point of interest, I’m pretty sure norovirus has a higher natural r0 than c19. Big variance, but a quick google search will bring up numbers from a little over one to 14+, with most somewhere in the middle of that range. I know when I got it about 12 years ago, loads of people I knew got it too. |
Norovirus is usually on par with the original strain of C19 which started 18 months ago I believe. The CDC states it's usually between 1.5 and 3 and can be <7 in extreme scenarios. A "normal" strain of Norovirus is not as transmissible as the current delta variant.
Saying lots of people you knew got it doesn't really mean anything. The numbers of people getting C19 would be ridiculous if we hadn't had the restrictions at the height and vaccines. What it does show is that these viruses can run amok if left unchecked.
The main point here though, which I think we both agree on, is that having other viruses like Norovirus rise in cases after easing restrictions needs to be taken into account when making decisions and it's not really been mentioned much.
SB |  |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 10:12 - Jul 20 with 1524 views | StokieBlue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 09:38 - Jul 20 by braveblue |
It’s common sense. |
What does that post even mean?
Why don't you flesh it out with some actual information?
SB | |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 10:37 - Jul 20 with 1491 views | Gogs |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 10:11 - Jul 20 by StokieBlue |
Norovirus is usually on par with the original strain of C19 which started 18 months ago I believe. The CDC states it's usually between 1.5 and 3 and can be <7 in extreme scenarios. A "normal" strain of Norovirus is not as transmissible as the current delta variant.
Saying lots of people you knew got it doesn't really mean anything. The numbers of people getting C19 would be ridiculous if we hadn't had the restrictions at the height and vaccines. What it does show is that these viruses can run amok if left unchecked.
The main point here though, which I think we both agree on, is that having other viruses like Norovirus rise in cases after easing restrictions needs to be taken into account when making decisions and it's not really been mentioned much.
SB |
Yes certainly I agree with your last point. A rampant strain of c19 in conjunction with a rampant strain of norovirus would be a colossal sh1tshow in more ways than one |  | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 11:02 - Jul 20 with 1456 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 20:14 - Jul 19 by xrayspecs |
Case data has flat lined over recent days. Some of this will be late reporting, but the very significant upward trend is slowing down. |
Just like to knock this incorrect statement on the head.
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=n92000002&areas=irl
RoI is behind the trend because we are behind in the opening up stakes. |  | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 11:04 - Jul 20 with 1437 views | vapour_trail |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 09:40 - Jul 20 by braveblue |
Head of midwifes very clear that the jab is safe. Personal choice not to have it. |
Just a hunch here, no idea where it’s come from, so please do correct any inaccuracies, but I’m going to go all in and suggest that you’re not in fact an expectant mother?
And in for a penny, in for a pound, I’ll also put it out there that you might be significantly less ‘brave’ were your walking in those shoes. |  |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 14:26 - Jul 20 with 1359 views | braveblue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 09:23 - Jul 20 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Oh boy. Just re-read what you wrote:
"- cases in England jumped significantly during the Euros, especially around England games."
Which is to say, cases in England jumped when large groups of people congregated in public squares, pubs were full and people went round each others houses for barbecues and beer.
CASES JUMPED.
We now have "Freedom Day" messaging from the Government, and all those things above will be (currently) legal and pretty much unrestricted for SIX WEEKS.
It's going to be carnage. And it's a choice, both in terms of policy and in terms of "Freedom Day" messaging.
Blood on their hands, again. |
Blood on their hands!! Really makes me despair.
If people want to cram together they may well catch it. If people are sensible they will not. Grow up and look after yourself. Not the Government's job!! | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 18:41 - Jul 20 with 1279 views | braveblue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 11:04 - Jul 20 by vapour_trail |
Just a hunch here, no idea where it’s come from, so please do correct any inaccuracies, but I’m going to go all in and suggest that you’re not in fact an expectant mother?
And in for a penny, in for a pound, I’ll also put it out there that you might be significantly less ‘brave’ were your walking in those shoes. |
And your point is? | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 18:45 - Jul 20 with 1267 views | braveblue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 10:12 - Jul 20 by StokieBlue |
What does that post even mean?
Why don't you flesh it out with some actual information?
SB |
Thought it was obvious. Not doing it until September so that everyone has the opportunity to get two jabs. Until then it is down to personal responsibility. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 20:12 - Jul 20 with 1219 views | azuremerlangus |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 17:35 - Jul 19 by ElderGrizzly |
By then, every over 18 in England will have had the opportunity to have 2 doses and be 14 days post-second dose.
If they have a genuine reason not to have one, there will always be exemptions made.
I wouldn't say it's farcical, just common sense to try and prevent future lockdowns and allow businesses to operate at full capacity. |
Couldn’t agree more. |  |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 22:27 - Jul 20 with 1149 views | judespiveyg |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 21:12 - Jul 19 by XYZ |
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Isn't that bloke supposed to be a nutjob though, my brother was telling me about how that fella and the Deepti Gurdsarni woman were in his words 'complete sociopaths', and that that Devi something was probably a better scientist to cite when it came to pro-restrictions opinion. Made it sound like this geez wasn't worth listening to.
Might be wrong with this though, I'm not going to pretend I'm up to date on Covid news and views. (i.e. I can't think of anything less interesting) |  |
| I survived Ipswich 0-0 Burton |
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 22:50 - Jul 20 with 1131 views | xrayspecs |
We are looking at inflection points and the data at the end of last week was suggesting that the increases were slowing down. We had a number of days where the daily number of cases were pretty much the same.
We know that the Euros have been a factor in driving England cases, people meeting to watch the games rather than transmission at the stadium. Euro 2020 related infection increases are now behind us, so that growth driver will now turn negative. Schools, as I said, are a problem, but that will ease over the next week or two as we hit the summer holidays as individual contact rates fall.
Where we go next will depend on how people treat their new freedoms. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 22:52 - Jul 20 with 1127 views | xrayspecs |
See above post. | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 22:59 - Jul 20 with 1120 views | StokieBlue |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 22:50 - Jul 20 by xrayspecs |
We are looking at inflection points and the data at the end of last week was suggesting that the increases were slowing down. We had a number of days where the daily number of cases were pretty much the same.
We know that the Euros have been a factor in driving England cases, people meeting to watch the games rather than transmission at the stadium. Euro 2020 related infection increases are now behind us, so that growth driver will now turn negative. Schools, as I said, are a problem, but that will ease over the next week or two as we hit the summer holidays as individual contact rates fall.
Where we go next will depend on how people treat their new freedoms. |
Hang on though.
You've said the government have more nuanced modelling and then caveated it all with the final sentence that it's all up to the public.
If that is true why would the government ease restrictions if there is a totally unknown variable (public behaviour) which would make all the modelling they are using redundant and the more pessimistic modelling I referred to a more likely scenario?
None of it makes sense. You are close to the modelling but the strategy you are putting across seems to be mostly guesswork and hope.
Unfortunately to many I am sure the strategy you are outlining looks like standard government policy of predetermined action followed by blame someone else (the public in this case).
SB [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 23:01]
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| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:23 - Jul 20 with 1098 views | XYZ |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 22:27 - Jul 20 by judespiveyg |
Isn't that bloke supposed to be a nutjob though, my brother was telling me about how that fella and the Deepti Gurdsarni woman were in his words 'complete sociopaths', and that that Devi something was probably a better scientist to cite when it came to pro-restrictions opinion. Made it sound like this geez wasn't worth listening to.
Might be wrong with this though, I'm not going to pretend I'm up to date on Covid news and views. (i.e. I can't think of anything less interesting) |
I don't know.
Assuming he isn't, then I reckon there's a chance you've just badly libeled him. And her.
Maybe find some evidence? | | | |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 23:27 - Jul 20 with 1094 views | xrayspecs |
| Govt just announced vaccine 'passports' needed from September on 22:59 - Jul 20 by StokieBlue |
Hang on though.
You've said the government have more nuanced modelling and then caveated it all with the final sentence that it's all up to the public.
If that is true why would the government ease restrictions if there is a totally unknown variable (public behaviour) which would make all the modelling they are using redundant and the more pessimistic modelling I referred to a more likely scenario?
None of it makes sense. You are close to the modelling but the strategy you are putting across seems to be mostly guesswork and hope.
Unfortunately to many I am sure the strategy you are outlining looks like standard government policy of predetermined action followed by blame someone else (the public in this case).
SB [Post edited 20 Jul 2021 23:01]
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Why are you mis-representing my posts?
You posted....
"Which is this case is ignore most of the modelling data and lie about the number of probable cases.
Javid has said 100,000 by the end of August so many times to try and make it fact but as it stands we are looking at that in less than 11 days.
They aren't following the data, they are doing what is driven by their ideology.
SB"
I said in response to your claim that it was all about ideology.
"You are welcome to your opinion, but try not to present it as fact.
A few points regarding the uncertainty
- cases in England jumped significantly during the Euros, especially around England games. Cases have been falling in recent days.
- Scotland, Wales and Ireland have not seen the same upward trajectory over recent weeks as England.
- So while trend may be upward, recent data is very likely skewed by the football.
- While restrictions were lifted today, a lot of folk continue to observe social distancing rules/wear masks. I would expect this to continue
- Clubs/venues, including ITFC are introducing measures to mitigate risk.
My point is that it is more nuanced than you are claiming.
On the government, I am close to a lot of the modelling work and have some awareness of what is being discussed. It is more balanced, pragmatic and nuanced than you believe."
So, my comment about nuance was that in looking at the modelling, there are a number of factors to take into account, including some which are temporal. So, yes, a more nuanced approach than your claim that it is just ideology.
The modelling is based on behavioural science, how people are expected to respond. If they do not act responsibly, then all bets are off. What is difficult to understand?
You can either ask/trust the public to do the right thing, or you take away their liberties. I would like to trust the public, you?
Your claim that the strategy is based on guesswork and hope is incorrect. As for your last paragraph, I despair.
The ball is in your court. If you want to have a sensible discussion, then PM me. If you do not, then no problem,. | | | |
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