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I probably know more people who have had/got it than haven't had it at all. Absolute barsteward of a lingerer too. Personally got it a month ago but still it keeps coming back mildy. So many people with coughs.
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This virus thing on 13:23 - Dec 29 with 2632 views
This virus thing on 12:45 - Dec 29 by Kievthegreat
This sounds very much like what I've been feeling. No warning, I just suddenly felt it full on Christmas Morning. Struggled through presents with the wife, slept for 3 hours, struggled through Christmas dinner, slept for another 3 hours, watched a Christmas film (I was given a choice of "The Holiday" or "Love Actually" which wasn't helpful) and then I told the wife to go see her family without me and slept for the best part of next 3 days.
Only other symptom I'd add is the lack of appetite which is still persisting. I've been forcing myself to eat an appropriate amount, but I'm currently just looking at food and feeling full, even though I've barely eaten and I've had no stomach trouble at all.
Lack of appetite can be a sign of Covid.
Now that tests are no longer freely available, with the result that it is costly to test every day of an illness, it could be that a lot of what is floating about is Covid. After all, according to the Zoe Covid App, there are currently 3.3 million active cases of Covid in the country.
I might add that when I had Covid, I didn't test positive on first day or so of my symptoms, so not testing positive early on may not be proof it is not Covid.
[Post edited 29 Dec 2022 15:54]
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This virus thing on 14:26 - Dec 30 with 2395 views
Small update on China for those that are interested. Looks like the EU and UK will end up requiring some form of test for travellers. Independent analysis is putting out some shockingly high numbers which are totally at odds with the official Chinese line:
"Their comments came as UK-based health data firm Airfinity said about 9,000 people in China were probably dying each day from Covid, nearly doubling its estimate from a week ago."
"Cumulative deaths in China since 1 December likely reached 100,000, with infections totalling 18.6m, Airfinity said in a statement on Thursday. It used modelling based on data from Chinese provinces before the recent changes to reporting cases were implemented, it said."
"Airfinity expects deaths to peak on 23 January with about 25,000 a day, with cumulative deaths reaching 584,000 since December. Since 7 December, when China made its abrupt policy U-turn, authorities have officially reported just 10 Covid deaths."
Impossible to know if any of that is accurate but 10 deaths is clearly nonsense.
SB
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This virus thing on 14:39 - Dec 30 with 2352 views
Small update on China for those that are interested. Looks like the EU and UK will end up requiring some form of test for travellers. Independent analysis is putting out some shockingly high numbers which are totally at odds with the official Chinese line:
"Their comments came as UK-based health data firm Airfinity said about 9,000 people in China were probably dying each day from Covid, nearly doubling its estimate from a week ago."
"Cumulative deaths in China since 1 December likely reached 100,000, with infections totalling 18.6m, Airfinity said in a statement on Thursday. It used modelling based on data from Chinese provinces before the recent changes to reporting cases were implemented, it said."
"Airfinity expects deaths to peak on 23 January with about 25,000 a day, with cumulative deaths reaching 584,000 since December. Since 7 December, when China made its abrupt policy U-turn, authorities have officially reported just 10 Covid deaths."
Impossible to know if any of that is accurate but 10 deaths is clearly nonsense.
SB
Admittedly the figures from China seem scary but it is interesting to note that the Airfinity figures are based on case growth rates from other former COVID-zero countries when they lifted restrictions such as Hong Kong and Japan. Obviously there will be many more cases in China than, say, Japan because of its population but we put in no restrictions for visitors from Hong Kong or Japan, and perhaps the more relevant question is quite how many Chinese people are likely to travel, given the following article. Indeed, it is possible that China will be over the worst of it by the time external travel really takes off.
Whatever the position, let's hope any decision of testing is based on the science, and not on any hostility to China or (on the other hand) back-bench hostility to restrictions.
[Post edited 30 Dec 2022 14:48]
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This virus thing on 14:49 - Dec 30 with 2331 views
Admittedly the figures from China seem scary but it is interesting to note that the Airfinity figures are based on case growth rates from other former COVID-zero countries when they lifted restrictions such as Hong Kong and Japan. Obviously there will be many more cases in China than, say, Japan because of its population but we put in no restrictions for visitors from Hong Kong or Japan, and perhaps the more relevant question is quite how many Chinese people are likely to travel, given the following article. Indeed, it is possible that China will be over the worst of it by the time external travel really takes off.
Whatever the position, let's hope any decision of testing is based on the science, and not on any hostility to China or (on the other hand) back-bench hostility to restrictions.
[Post edited 30 Dec 2022 14:48]
My point wasn't really about travel, it was more about the internal situation in China which is clearly far worse than the government acknowledges.
As for Japan and HK as a comparison I don't think they are particularly similar. Both of those countries used mRNA vaccines which were far more effective and they had far higher take-up of the vaccine than the Chinese have. They also didn't open up right in the middle of a huge wave of infections, they opened up when infections were more under control and after most people had numerous vaccines.
There isn't a huge issue with the Chinese travelling at the moment, the surge there is BA.7 which we already have here (and everywhere else). The concern is that a new variant could develop due to the sheer number of infections and then spread quickly via air travel. It's probably impossible to stop this in reality but I can understand some countries trying to limit the speed of any possible spread.
Two flights landed at Milan a few days ago, they had 52% and 48% of the passengers infected with covid.
SB
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This virus thing on 16:31 - Dec 30 with 2258 views
My point wasn't really about travel, it was more about the internal situation in China which is clearly far worse than the government acknowledges.
As for Japan and HK as a comparison I don't think they are particularly similar. Both of those countries used mRNA vaccines which were far more effective and they had far higher take-up of the vaccine than the Chinese have. They also didn't open up right in the middle of a huge wave of infections, they opened up when infections were more under control and after most people had numerous vaccines.
There isn't a huge issue with the Chinese travelling at the moment, the surge there is BA.7 which we already have here (and everywhere else). The concern is that a new variant could develop due to the sheer number of infections and then spread quickly via air travel. It's probably impossible to stop this in reality but I can understand some countries trying to limit the speed of any possible spread.
Two flights landed at Milan a few days ago, they had 52% and 48% of the passengers infected with covid.
SB
Sorry, I was merely trying to say we shouldn't be too alarmist on things, and should follow the science.
Interestingly, the following indicates that GISAID, which maintains the world's largest repository of SARS-CoV-2 sequences, is on the case.
Perhaps the most telling passage from the article is the following.
"GISAID’s Bogner said that countries around the world have pulled back on their pandemic work just as infection rates rise in many areas. Sequencing is an important part of the Covid effort, and it’s not inevitable that the next variant will come from China, he said.
“Surveillance is breaking down around the world,” he said. “To say we should worry about a variant emerging in mainland China — there is a whole planet to worry about. These things emerge where they want to emerge.”
[Post edited 30 Dec 2022 16:35]
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This virus thing on 16:35 - Dec 30 with 2239 views
Perhaps the most telling passage from the article is the following.
"GISAID’s Bogner said that countries around the world have pulled back on their pandemic work just as infection rates rise in many areas. Sequencing is an important part of the Covid effort, and it’s not inevitable that the next variant will come from China, he said.
“Surveillance is breaking down around the world,” he said. “To say we should worry about a variant emerging in mainland China — there is a whole planet to worry about. These things emerge where they want to emerge.”
[Post edited 30 Dec 2022 16:35]
Funnily enough, I've just watched a Dr Campbell video on exactly this topic and he explains why he is not too alarmed ....
Perhaps the most telling passage from the article is the following.
"GISAID’s Bogner said that countries around the world have pulled back on their pandemic work just as infection rates rise in many areas. Sequencing is an important part of the Covid effort, and it’s not inevitable that the next variant will come from China, he said.
“Surveillance is breaking down around the world,” he said. “To say we should worry about a variant emerging in mainland China — there is a whole planet to worry about. These things emerge where they want to emerge.”
[Post edited 30 Dec 2022 16:35]
As you say, we should always follow the science.
China have only given over 1000 samples for genetic sequencing, there are millions of new cases a day, I don't particularly trust the Chinese authorities to provide data in a reliable way.
In reality it's unlikely a nasty mutation will happen, it would take something like an immune-supressed patient in a rural location where they don't get good enough medical care to incubate the virus for a longer time allowing it to optimise within the body (essentially what scientists think happened with Omicron). Even then it's not going to be a huge concern unless it starts infecting the lungs again whilst keeping the transmissibility of Omicron, something which is not very probable.
Now that tests are no longer freely available, with the result that it is costly to test every day of an illness, it could be that a lot of what is floating about is Covid. After all, according to the Zoe Covid App, there are currently 3.3 million active cases of Covid in the country.
I might add that when I had Covid, I didn't test positive on first day or so of my symptoms, so not testing positive early on may not be proof it is not Covid.
[Post edited 29 Dec 2022 15:54]
I have had a strong suspicion it could have been covid, but multiple negative lateral flows, and the lack of PCRs being available anymore means I sort of have to assume it's not Covid.
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This virus thing on 17:30 - Dec 30 with 2130 views
.....suggestion in there that covid itself reduces the functioning of our immune systems as a side effect and also that....
"On the other hand, zero exposure to disease-causing pathogens isn’t necessarily good for us either. After Covid restrictions were lifted there was a surge in cases of respiratory syncytial virus — a common cause of acute lower respiratory infections in young children. “Usually, it is a winter virus, but after people started mixing again we saw lots of children with the virus during all seasons,” said Prof Pablo Murcia, a virologist at the University of Glasgow.
Exposure, little and often, may help to refresh the immune system’s memories of commonly circulating bugs, as well as updating them with information about new variants."
I questioned quite early on in the pandemic, but then in the later stages too, whether wearing ordinary face masks (so not FFP2 or 3) might in effect be a form of unofficial "rolling vaccine", as they could allow small amounts of the virus to get through them & add slowly, in small "doses" to peoples' immunity.
The idea was never taken up in discussion either here or elsewhere - any thoughts anyone? (would particularly like to hear from qualified medics and/or scientists).
I questioned quite early on in the pandemic, but then in the later stages too, whether wearing ordinary face masks (so not FFP2 or 3) might in effect be a form of unofficial "rolling vaccine", as they could allow small amounts of the virus to get through them & add slowly, in small "doses" to peoples' immunity.
The idea was never taken up in discussion either here or elsewhere - any thoughts anyone? (would particularly like to hear from qualified medics and/or scientists).
My feeling was more that they didn't want people to get masks at the expense of the NHS getting them, given the world-wide demand. Indeed, wasn't there a few weeks or months when the need for masks was played down? Similarly, when masks did become compulsory, they played down the need for better masks (when countries such as Germany provided them) but I sensed this was to save money or play down fear of the virus. But with Johnson who knows, and your idea may have something in it.
[Post edited 30 Dec 2022 18:08]
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This virus thing on 18:17 - Dec 30 with 2065 views
I've definitely got it. Cold symptoms but luckily no stomach sickness.
No doubt from one of you barstewards at PR last week.
Currently sitting here in the house wearing multiple layers, outdoor coat, hot water bottle. I don't think I've ever felt as cold as in the past 24 hours.
China have only given over 1000 samples for genetic sequencing, there are millions of new cases a day, I don't particularly trust the Chinese authorities to provide data in a reliable way.
In reality it's unlikely a nasty mutation will happen, it would take something like an immune-supressed patient in a rural location where they don't get good enough medical care to incubate the virus for a longer time allowing it to optimise within the body (essentially what scientists think happened with Omicron). Even then it's not going to be a huge concern unless it starts infecting the lungs again whilst keeping the transmissibility of Omicron, something which is not very probable.
SB
[Post edited 30 Dec 2022 16:46]
As it turns out, the Government has imposed restrictions but I am inclined to think this is because it is popular, not because it follows the science, given the following (on BBC website) from the man involved with the Oxford Covid vaccine.
"Prof Andrew Pollard, chairman of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), said the restrictions are unlikely to prevent new Covid variants reaching the UK and it was difficult to know what impact such a move would have here.
He told BBC News: "Trying to ban a virus by adjusting what we do with travel has already been shown not to work very well.
"We've seen that with the bans on travel from various countries during the pandemic, that hasn't stopped those viruses travelling around the world eventually."
He presumably says this because pre-flight tests for direct flights from China will not prevent infected Chinese people arriving here by other routes, or Chinese people infecting other people who arrive.
[Post edited 31 Dec 2022 8:48]
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This virus thing on 09:42 - Dec 31 with 1875 views
This virus thing on 16:35 - Dec 30 by Trequartista
Funnily enough, I've just watched a Dr Campbell video on exactly this topic and he explains why he is not too alarmed ....
I've not watched this video but he's probably right in that conclusion. As per my previous post, it would take some very specific and unfortunates circumstances for a horrible variant to occur.
In the last year or so he's posted some pretty awful videos though, quite a few pushing a conspiracy agenda.
SB
[Post edited 31 Dec 2022 9:48]
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This virus thing on 10:09 - Dec 31 with 1825 views
I've not watched this video but he's probably right in that conclusion. As per my previous post, it would take some very specific and unfortunates circumstances for a horrible variant to occur.
In the last year or so he's posted some pretty awful videos though, quite a few pushing a conspiracy agenda.
SB
[Post edited 31 Dec 2022 9:48]
He's very avuncular, and a friend of mine swears by him, but, I like you, am dubious, not least because he describes himself as a doctor, but is in fact a nurse with a PhD.
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This virus thing on 10:17 - Dec 31 with 1815 views
He's very avuncular, and a friend of mine swears by him, but, I like you, am dubious, not least because he describes himself as a doctor, but is in fact a nurse with a PhD.
Indeed, I pointed that out to various posters during the pandemic who swore by him. He's not a virologist.
Aside from that though, it's best to look at what he actually says and quite a lot of that was dubious and it's gotten more dubious over the last year.
SB
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This virus thing on 10:24 - Dec 31 with 1783 views
Luckily the variants which are emerging seem to still follow the basic Omicron blueprint but with optimisations around the spike proteins to allow better evasion of the immune system. The real worry would be if one of these moves into the lungs and we are back with something like Delta, although vaccines are still giving good protection against severe covid.
We are likely to see variants for a long time, it's a continual process of optimisation based on natural selection. I once had to write an algorithm which used natural selection in the same way to solve and optimisation problem and it'll eventually converge on something fairly stable, Omicron could be the basis for that given it's transmissibility. It's going to be hard for something worse to outcompete it from the lungs but it's far from impossible.
SB
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This virus thing on 10:25 - Dec 31 with 1784 views
Indeed, I pointed that out to various posters during the pandemic who swore by him. He's not a virologist.
Aside from that though, it's best to look at what he actually says and quite a lot of that was dubious and it's gotten more dubious over the last year.
SB
To be honest, I took a dislike to a slant he took early on in one of his videos when I first became aware of him, and couldn't be bothered to listen to subsequent (rather long) videos to find out just what (very plausible) nonsense he was spouting.
But with all those subscribers, he must be coining it in.
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This virus thing on 10:30 - Dec 31 with 1756 views
Luckily the variants which are emerging seem to still follow the basic Omicron blueprint but with optimisations around the spike proteins to allow better evasion of the immune system. The real worry would be if one of these moves into the lungs and we are back with something like Delta, although vaccines are still giving good protection against severe covid.
We are likely to see variants for a long time, it's a continual process of optimisation based on natural selection. I once had to write an algorithm which used natural selection in the same way to solve and optimisation problem and it'll eventually converge on something fairly stable, Omicron could be the basis for that given it's transmissibility. It's going to be hard for something worse to outcompete it from the lungs but it's far from impossible.
SB
You obviously have some knowledge in this area. For my own part, I've tried to follow the Twitter output of people like Chris Pagel and those she retweets, who have real expertise.
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This virus thing on 10:39 - Dec 31 with 1748 views
Luckily the variants which are emerging seem to still follow the basic Omicron blueprint but with optimisations around the spike proteins to allow better evasion of the immune system. The real worry would be if one of these moves into the lungs and we are back with something like Delta, although vaccines are still giving good protection against severe covid.
We are likely to see variants for a long time, it's a continual process of optimisation based on natural selection. I once had to write an algorithm which used natural selection in the same way to solve and optimisation problem and it'll eventually converge on something fairly stable, Omicron could be the basis for that given it's transmissibility. It's going to be hard for something worse to outcompete it from the lungs but it's far from impossible.
SB
The following article indicates the bivalent booster (which I received in the autumn) offers the best protection, but I imagine many Americans haven't taken it up.
It's not too surprising given the fact that the social distancing and face masks worked so well to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses people have lost some immunity.
It's almost like wearing masks in confined places such as public transport and supermarkets during winter, like they do in Asia, is a policy generated out of prior experience and scientific knowledge.
We all know how it went when I suggested such a thing would be sensible here going forward. Given that we are all stuck with these little nasties I'm afraid.
It's also not like covid has gone away, current hospitalisations are running at ~1000 per day. We are just lucky that Omicron doesn't affect the lungs as badly and that we have highly effective vaccinations.
1 in 8 hospital beds are currently taken with either a covid or flu patent and the XBB variant is likely to cause another wave over the next few weeks looking at what's happening elsewhere.
1 in 8 hospital beds are currently taken with either a covid or flu patent and the XBB variant is likely to cause another wave over the next few weeks looking at what's happening elsewhere.
SB
I think it was Rhod Gilbert's wife who was saying that on a recent visit to the hospital (of all places) there were people sitting there coughing away, many mask-less.
1 in 8 hospital beds are currently taken with either a covid or flu patent and the XBB variant is likely to cause another wave over the next few weeks looking at what's happening elsewhere.
SB
Going to work and footy is ok though, right? Wouldn't want to be told to 'man up' because you didn't go.
Pronouns: He/Him/His.
"Imagine being a heterosexual white male in Britain at this moment. How bad is that. Everything you say is racist, everything you say is homophobic. The Woke community have really f****d this country."
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