| Our issues 08:30 - Jan 22 with 3122 views | Herbivore |
It's not that we've been sussed out. It's not that we need to change the system. It's not that we need to sign more players. It is, very simply, that we do not take as many of our good chances as we should and we concede a higher proportion of chances against than we should. We have the lowest xG against in the league and by far the highest xG for. I know xG is far from perfect, but the xG stats suggest we should be pissing the league: https://footballxg.com/xg-league-tables/
The stats back up what we are seeing most weeks. Even yesterday when we were below par, we created enough good chances to win two games, whereas Oxford have scored from two situations where you wouldn't expect a team to score, the first of which was very much down to our lack of defending.
The issue is how to fix it and that's the complicated part. Will a change of system make us more clinical? Will it mean we still manage to create loads of good chances whilst stopping the opposition from scoring on the rare occasion they get near our goal? I'm not convinced. It strikes me that because this has been going on for a while, even when we were winning games to some extent, it's become a chronic issue and a mental block. We are under pressure, much of it self inflicted, and it seems to be causing us to make small errors at both ends that are invariably being punished. It risks killing our season, but I don't see how throwing our toys out of the pram and calling for wholesale changes is going to help matters. It certainly won't do anything to address the actual problems we're facing, imo. [Post edited 22 Jan 2023 8:39]
|  |
| |  |
| Our issues on 08:35 - Jan 22 with 2380 views | unstableblue |
For me the problem is the amount of players per game who don’t turn up or put in low par performances
It’s often 3 or 4 players looking flat and lacking in quality/drive
Donaciens been poor for weeks, Burns is so intermittent. Walton a shadow of last season. Harness and in part Chaplin aren’t sharp enough. I could go on. |  |
| |
| Our issues on 08:37 - Jan 22 with 2374 views | Dubtractor |
Agree fully with this. I just don't know how you fix what feels like it has become a mental issue though?
The way that we create numerous chances is great, but to continually miss so many of them is remarkable, and to repeat it every week is just odd.
Then to defend so well for 99% of the game, but have a defensive brain fart as we did for their opener yesterday is utterly infuriating.
I genuinely don't know how we fix it - but the issue really isn't with how we are playing, it is individual errors at both ends of the pitch.
edit: I would add that one change I would certainly make Tuesday is to start Broadhead for Harness. Harness was very good at home to Oxford, but has been pretty poor since then. [Post edited 22 Jan 2023 8:38]
|  |
| |
| Our issues on 08:41 - Jan 22 with 2309 views | timothyeo |
Youre right. Xg isn't perfect but it's the closest to it in terms of easily available stats.
And at this point in the season its a big enough sample size to fairly judge.
It does tell you the system and style works. It allows us to regularly create much better chances than we concede.
Unfortunately football has so many 'invisible' factors that come to play. Confidence and mentality being the two biggest.
The other argument is do we have a particular CB or GK causing us to concede goals that normally wouldn't be? Do we have a particularly wasteful striker who's goals is far below his xG? |  | | |
| Our issues on 08:43 - Jan 22 with 2299 views | Guthrum |
Coaching. The club have brought in a number of additional staff to cover previously neglected aspects, why not hire a couple more as specialist shooting and defensive coaches? It would improve the players we've got rather than the expense of hiring new ones. Good for morale, too - what player doesn't want to increase their skill levels?
We don't even need to look to far. Get John Wark and Darren Bent to come and give lessons on shooting. Terry Butcher (and Richard Keogh, if he wants to get into management) to run classes on defending. |  |
| |
| Our issues on 08:45 - Jan 22 with 2268 views | Herbivore |
| Our issues on 08:37 - Jan 22 by Dubtractor |
Agree fully with this. I just don't know how you fix what feels like it has become a mental issue though?
The way that we create numerous chances is great, but to continually miss so many of them is remarkable, and to repeat it every week is just odd.
Then to defend so well for 99% of the game, but have a defensive brain fart as we did for their opener yesterday is utterly infuriating.
I genuinely don't know how we fix it - but the issue really isn't with how we are playing, it is individual errors at both ends of the pitch.
edit: I would add that one change I would certainly make Tuesday is to start Broadhead for Harness. Harness was very good at home to Oxford, but has been pretty poor since then. [Post edited 22 Jan 2023 8:38]
|
If we don't already, we could do with getting a sports psychologist on board. It's very much about pressure, imo. Look at the Rotherham game, they aren't a worse side than most of our recent opponents and even with a changed line up we stuck four goals past them. But we aren't expecting to win the FA Cup and there was little pressure on that fixture as a loss didn't matter.
Ultimately, a couple of wins back to back and a few goals might just help to break the self inflicted hex. Being so far behind now might also, weirdly, ease the pressure somewhat. We know winning the next game or the one after that won't see us back in the top 2 so we just need to play our game and win as many points as we can.
Completely agree on Broadhead for Harness. Harness is so, so patchy but lately he's missing chances he was scoring earlier in the season and we can't afford to carry his questionable control and use of the ball if he's not contributing goals. | |
| |
| Our issues on 08:46 - Jan 22 with 2246 views | Guthrum |
| Our issues on 08:37 - Jan 22 by Dubtractor |
Agree fully with this. I just don't know how you fix what feels like it has become a mental issue though?
The way that we create numerous chances is great, but to continually miss so many of them is remarkable, and to repeat it every week is just odd.
Then to defend so well for 99% of the game, but have a defensive brain fart as we did for their opener yesterday is utterly infuriating.
I genuinely don't know how we fix it - but the issue really isn't with how we are playing, it is individual errors at both ends of the pitch.
edit: I would add that one change I would certainly make Tuesday is to start Broadhead for Harness. Harness was very good at home to Oxford, but has been pretty poor since then. [Post edited 22 Jan 2023 8:38]
|
Harness is our current Celina. A magician when he's on it, but game-to-game (and even within matches) his form varies quite a lot. | |
| |
| Our issues on 08:48 - Jan 22 with 2234 views | Herbivore |
| Our issues on 08:35 - Jan 22 by unstableblue |
For me the problem is the amount of players per game who don’t turn up or put in low par performances
It’s often 3 or 4 players looking flat and lacking in quality/drive
Donaciens been poor for weeks, Burns is so intermittent. Walton a shadow of last season. Harness and in part Chaplin aren’t sharp enough. I could go on. |
Not sure that really explains it either to be honest. It's League 1, you're not going to get everyone putting in 8/10 performances every week. We are still in every game creating enough to win comfortably whilst limiting the opposition to not much, even with a couple of below par performers. | |
| |
| Our issues on 08:50 - Jan 22 with 2214 views | pennblue |
We seem to have stopped playing keep ball and i am not sure why | |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| Our issues on 08:53 - Jan 22 with 2185 views | SomethingBlue |
| Our issues on 08:35 - Jan 22 by unstableblue |
For me the problem is the amount of players per game who don’t turn up or put in low par performances
It’s often 3 or 4 players looking flat and lacking in quality/drive
Donaciens been poor for weeks, Burns is so intermittent. Walton a shadow of last season. Harness and in part Chaplin aren’t sharp enough. I could go on. |
Quality of general performance is the last of our problems. | |
| |
| Our issues on 09:07 - Jan 22 with 2092 views | Chrisd |
I agree to a point, but we haven’t got the ability to keep teams out, even when we are dominating the game and missing chances. Goals change games and naturally if we took our chances that would make a big difference, but equally when we concede that gives the opposition confidence and momentum, we then struggle as the game has shifted. Being able to keep teams out is just as important as converting chances and in both cases we don’t do that well enough at the moment. | |
| |
| Our issues on 09:16 - Jan 22 with 1986 views | Dyland |
Again, it goes to show that data and stats don’t win football games, not at this level anyway.
If we win every game from now on in I’ll concede I may be wrong about that, whilst still being right innit :) |  |
| |
| Our issues on 09:21 - Jan 22 with 1947 views | Dyland |
| Our issues on 08:37 - Jan 22 by Dubtractor |
Agree fully with this. I just don't know how you fix what feels like it has become a mental issue though?
The way that we create numerous chances is great, but to continually miss so many of them is remarkable, and to repeat it every week is just odd.
Then to defend so well for 99% of the game, but have a defensive brain fart as we did for their opener yesterday is utterly infuriating.
I genuinely don't know how we fix it - but the issue really isn't with how we are playing, it is individual errors at both ends of the pitch.
edit: I would add that one change I would certainly make Tuesday is to start Broadhead for Harness. Harness was very good at home to Oxford, but has been pretty poor since then. [Post edited 22 Jan 2023 8:38]
|
Bang on re Harness. Feels a bit mean but he’s too inconsistent to nail that spot imo. [Post edited 22 Jan 2023 9:23]
| |
| |
| Our issues on 09:31 - Jan 22 with 1871 views | Exiled2Surrey |
I kind of agree, but I wonder whether the devil is in the detail on xg. I would love someone to educate me on this (ie tell me I am talking rubbish) but whenever I look at the xg charts of our games, we tend to have loads of small xg opportunities which add up to a high total game xg. Generalising it is normally the opposite for the opposition who tend to have a few larger xg opportunities. If the stats people are attributing too high a probability to the low xg chances, even by a small amount, then our advantage on this stat this season would be an illusion. Is a chance rated the same xg for a premier league striker as for a league 1 striker for instance?
This might be why we have recently slightly changed our approach - with the possession stats going down and the speed to getting the ball up to the business end increased - all with a view to getting higher probability chances.
However, that doesn’t explain yesterday when we clearly had more higher quality chances - and that could just be down to mindset / luck / a one off…. | | | |
| Our issues on 09:34 - Jan 22 with 1845 views | backwaywhen |
| Our issues on 08:35 - Jan 22 by unstableblue |
For me the problem is the amount of players per game who don’t turn up or put in low par performances
It’s often 3 or 4 players looking flat and lacking in quality/drive
Donaciens been poor for weeks, Burns is so intermittent. Walton a shadow of last season. Harness and in part Chaplin aren’t sharp enough. I could go on. |
For me I thinkWalton is suffering from a lack of confidence with those directly in front of him , he must have kittens watching some of that defending… IMO | | | |
| Our issues on 09:40 - Jan 22 with 1809 views | Dyland |
| Our issues on 08:45 - Jan 22 by Herbivore |
If we don't already, we could do with getting a sports psychologist on board. It's very much about pressure, imo. Look at the Rotherham game, they aren't a worse side than most of our recent opponents and even with a changed line up we stuck four goals past them. But we aren't expecting to win the FA Cup and there was little pressure on that fixture as a loss didn't matter.
Ultimately, a couple of wins back to back and a few goals might just help to break the self inflicted hex. Being so far behind now might also, weirdly, ease the pressure somewhat. We know winning the next game or the one after that won't see us back in the top 2 so we just need to play our game and win as many points as we can.
Completely agree on Broadhead for Harness. Harness is so, so patchy but lately he's missing chances he was scoring earlier in the season and we can't afford to carry his questionable control and use of the ball if he's not contributing goals. |
That’s how I feel re pressure and being so off it now. Kind of cathartic. Obvs still desperate for promotion but meh… | |
| |
| Our issues on 09:46 - Jan 22 with 1752 views | ElephantintheRoom |
I know you are reality-averse but even you might concede this is the third division and since becoming a franchise the club has allegedly targeted a container load of players who have room for improvement to ‘add value’. Aside from Morsy it’s difficult to find a recent signing comfortable at a higher level. The strategy kind of assumes player who make mistakes but will improve with Town’s Barcelona-lite approach to coaching which is somewhat at odds with the pragmatism that usually enables clubs to escape division 3. In other words mistakes are to be expected whilst value is added. The number of goals scored suggests a modicum of continuity might have been in order.
Now the club is in the bizarre situation of signing unproven professional loanees to replace players signed just a few short weeks ago. To me it reeks of panic and will be surely be counter-productive - although with very easy games coming up they may flatter to deceive in the short term | |
| |
| Our issues on 09:46 - Jan 22 with 1752 views | Guthrum |
| Our issues on 09:31 - Jan 22 by Exiled2Surrey |
I kind of agree, but I wonder whether the devil is in the detail on xg. I would love someone to educate me on this (ie tell me I am talking rubbish) but whenever I look at the xg charts of our games, we tend to have loads of small xg opportunities which add up to a high total game xg. Generalising it is normally the opposite for the opposition who tend to have a few larger xg opportunities. If the stats people are attributing too high a probability to the low xg chances, even by a small amount, then our advantage on this stat this season would be an illusion. Is a chance rated the same xg for a premier league striker as for a league 1 striker for instance?
This might be why we have recently slightly changed our approach - with the possession stats going down and the speed to getting the ball up to the business end increased - all with a view to getting higher probability chances.
However, that doesn’t explain yesterday when we clearly had more higher quality chances - and that could just be down to mindset / luck / a one off…. |
If you look at the games themselves, there have been a lot of occasions when we've been in an extremely good position, but not managed to get the shot on target (including hits on the woodwork), or failed to really test the 'keeper (no power or straight at him). In addition there have been a number of good saves.
That would seem to back up the xG stats that we are scoring fewer than we should for the chances created. | |
| |
| Our issues on 09:52 - Jan 22 with 1709 views | ITFCBlues |
We don't control games in the same fashion as we did the first 3 months of the season, aside from Pompey away where they decided they wanted to sit back. Even then we allowed a simple cross in the box and conceded.
Low XG or not, shots from outside the box continue to be our undoing. So it continued coincidence or is there a problem somewhere? Perhaps the keeper saving nothing? Or are we allowing shots from the edge of the box too freely? |  |
| |
| Our issues on 09:53 - Jan 22 with 1706 views | Dyland |
| Our issues on 09:46 - Jan 22 by ElephantintheRoom |
I know you are reality-averse but even you might concede this is the third division and since becoming a franchise the club has allegedly targeted a container load of players who have room for improvement to ‘add value’. Aside from Morsy it’s difficult to find a recent signing comfortable at a higher level. The strategy kind of assumes player who make mistakes but will improve with Town’s Barcelona-lite approach to coaching which is somewhat at odds with the pragmatism that usually enables clubs to escape division 3. In other words mistakes are to be expected whilst value is added. The number of goals scored suggests a modicum of continuity might have been in order.
Now the club is in the bizarre situation of signing unproven professional loanees to replace players signed just a few short weeks ago. To me it reeks of panic and will be surely be counter-productive - although with very easy games coming up they may flatter to deceive in the short term |
How is ITFC a franchise as opposed to “the investors are American”?
Oh don’t bother! | |
| |
| Our issues on 09:57 - Jan 22 with 1696 views | DJR |
| Our issues on 08:43 - Jan 22 by Guthrum |
Coaching. The club have brought in a number of additional staff to cover previously neglected aspects, why not hire a couple more as specialist shooting and defensive coaches? It would improve the players we've got rather than the expense of hiring new ones. Good for morale, too - what player doesn't want to increase their skill levels?
We don't even need to look to far. Get John Wark and Darren Bent to come and give lessons on shooting. Terry Butcher (and Richard Keogh, if he wants to get into management) to run classes on defending. |
I don't think we have that many people with a real goal instinct, ignoring for the moment the new boys. Burns, Chaplin and possibly Ladapo are probably the exceptions. And I am not wholly convinced that coaching will make that much difference if you don't have it naturally which someone like John Wark clearly had, and Sam Morsy, for example, doesn't, with only 26 goals in 430 games (according to Wikipedia). [Post edited 22 Jan 2023 10:01]
|  | | |
| Our issues on 10:07 - Jan 22 with 1638 views | Swansea_Blue |
Quite. Missing the very good chances we create is obviously costing us. Oxford’s first was almost a carbon copy of the Burns miss - break through some challenges towards corner of the goal. They slot it past the keeper, Wes lashes it over the bar. That’s the difference. We didn’t play well yesterday, but normally most of what we do up to the final ball is good. |  |
| |
| Our issues on 10:08 - Jan 22 with 1626 views | Stewart27 |
| Our issues on 08:45 - Jan 22 by Herbivore |
If we don't already, we could do with getting a sports psychologist on board. It's very much about pressure, imo. Look at the Rotherham game, they aren't a worse side than most of our recent opponents and even with a changed line up we stuck four goals past them. But we aren't expecting to win the FA Cup and there was little pressure on that fixture as a loss didn't matter.
Ultimately, a couple of wins back to back and a few goals might just help to break the self inflicted hex. Being so far behind now might also, weirdly, ease the pressure somewhat. We know winning the next game or the one after that won't see us back in the top 2 so we just need to play our game and win as many points as we can.
Completely agree on Broadhead for Harness. Harness is so, so patchy but lately he's missing chances he was scoring earlier in the season and we can't afford to carry his questionable control and use of the ball if he's not contributing goals. |
Agree with this on so many levels.
I was thinking last night that we are now the underdogs in the chase. It’s absolutely not a place I thought we’d be or wanted to be a month ago. But now we are, I feel we could take advantage of this tag.
Agree about Rotherham too. That was only 2 weeks ago and everything looked really rosy. They played with more freedom and we converted our chances. | | | |
| Our issues on 10:08 - Jan 22 with 1626 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Our issues on 08:37 - Jan 22 by Dubtractor |
Agree fully with this. I just don't know how you fix what feels like it has become a mental issue though?
The way that we create numerous chances is great, but to continually miss so many of them is remarkable, and to repeat it every week is just odd.
Then to defend so well for 99% of the game, but have a defensive brain fart as we did for their opener yesterday is utterly infuriating.
I genuinely don't know how we fix it - but the issue really isn't with how we are playing, it is individual errors at both ends of the pitch.
edit: I would add that one change I would certainly make Tuesday is to start Broadhead for Harness. Harness was very good at home to Oxford, but has been pretty poor since then. [Post edited 22 Jan 2023 8:38]
|
I don’t think you make wholesale changes, which some people are calling for. Then you risk upsetting what’s working and we may end up not even getting into the good positions so often. Those in front of goal just need to keep their heads and not snatch at stuff. | |
| |
| Our issues on 10:09 - Jan 22 with 1623 views | Guthrum |
| Our issues on 09:57 - Jan 22 by DJR |
I don't think we have that many people with a real goal instinct, ignoring for the moment the new boys. Burns, Chaplin and possibly Ladapo are probably the exceptions. And I am not wholly convinced that coaching will make that much difference if you don't have it naturally which someone like John Wark clearly had, and Sam Morsy, for example, doesn't, with only 26 goals in 430 games (according to Wikipedia). [Post edited 22 Jan 2023 10:01]
|
If a player has good techniques drilled into them, then it will increase the chance of actually scoring in that split second when they find themselves with a view of the net. Will also give more confidence in themselves, knowing they have the tools available.
It's a bit like bowlers and batsmen in cricket who are constantly working on their technique, refining, tweaking. Sometimes even completely re-learning, despite already being at international level. For example Mark Wood completely changed his run-up, which reduced the stress on his body while still enabling him to bowl frighteningly quick. | |
| |
| Our issues on 10:10 - Jan 22 with 1621 views | Herbivore |
| Our issues on 09:46 - Jan 22 by ElephantintheRoom |
I know you are reality-averse but even you might concede this is the third division and since becoming a franchise the club has allegedly targeted a container load of players who have room for improvement to ‘add value’. Aside from Morsy it’s difficult to find a recent signing comfortable at a higher level. The strategy kind of assumes player who make mistakes but will improve with Town’s Barcelona-lite approach to coaching which is somewhat at odds with the pragmatism that usually enables clubs to escape division 3. In other words mistakes are to be expected whilst value is added. The number of goals scored suggests a modicum of continuity might have been in order.
Now the club is in the bizarre situation of signing unproven professional loanees to replace players signed just a few short weeks ago. To me it reeks of panic and will be surely be counter-productive - although with very easy games coming up they may flatter to deceive in the short term |
Waffle, waffle, edgelord comment, waffle. I've not been on here for a while but some things clearly haven't changed. | |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
