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Civil war in Russia imminent? on 08:24 - Jun 24 by GlasgowBlue
Putin came across as being very vulnerable imo. I was expecting a rant blaming the west for backing Wager in a coup. Far too honest in his public address, which must lead people to question his grip on power.
I wonder if his grip on power hasn't slipped, open war breaking out between Wagner and the military, with Putin unable to prevent it.
Without army support, Putin's position is very fragile. The FSB can keep civilians quiet, but stopping a putsch is a different matter.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 09:24 - Jun 24 by ElderGrizzly
Putin appears to be off the Christmas card list
I never thought BCWYWF and Putin would be in the same sentence, but if this fella somehow ousts Putin in a coup, then he doesn't seem all that much more reasonable.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 09:27 - Jun 24 by wkj
I never thought BCWYWF and Putin would be in the same sentence, but if this fella somehow ousts Putin in a coup, then he doesn't seem all that much more reasonable.
Bcwywfalso in the sense that civil war itself,, let alone what comes after could be very dangerous for the world. Seems to me that one way or another that the use of WOMD just become a little bit more likely.
Obviously I know nothing, but I feel unnerved more than hopeful.
Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 09:06 - Jun 24 by Guthrum
I wonder if his grip on power hasn't slipped, open war breaking out between Wagner and the military, with Putin unable to prevent it.
Without army support, Putin's position is very fragile. The FSB can keep civilians quiet, but stopping a putsch is a different matter.
A civil war - or series of wars, given Russia's size - is looking increasingly likely. That's good news if you're Ukrainian, but probably not good for the rest of Russia or the world. Removing Putin will initially be seen as a positive, but he might well be replaced by someone as bad, or worse. Russia has no functioning democratic system.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:05 - Jun 24 by Radlett_blue
A civil war - or series of wars, given Russia's size - is looking increasingly likely. That's good news if you're Ukrainian, but probably not good for the rest of Russia or the world. Removing Putin will initially be seen as a positive, but he might well be replaced by someone as bad, or worse. Russia has no functioning democratic system.
The hope would be that it forces Russia to look inwards whilst they fight each other, abandoning Ukraine/the front line . The risk would be who wins and what their outlook is on Ukraine and the west. For all of Putin's faults, at least he has not escalated the situation to the point of going nuclear.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:08 - Jun 24 by pointofblue
The hope would be that it forces Russia to look inwards whilst they fight each other, abandoning Ukraine/the front line . The risk would be who wins and what their outlook is on Ukraine and the west. For all of Putin's faults, at least he has not escalated the situation to the point of going nuclear.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:05 - Jun 24 by Radlett_blue
A civil war - or series of wars, given Russia's size - is looking increasingly likely. That's good news if you're Ukrainian, but probably not good for the rest of Russia or the world. Removing Putin will initially be seen as a positive, but he might well be replaced by someone as bad, or worse. Russia has no functioning democratic system.
Indeed, tho the collapse of the Soviet Union passed with relatively little fighting beyond its borders.
Several commentators have speculated that Russia itself could fragment under such circumstances. There are culturally-ethnically distinct regions which did not break away in the early 1990s, but might do so now (especially with the rise of islamic nationalism). Other areas may simply want to remove themselves from Muscovite control or powerful players to establish independent personal authority.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:08 - Jun 24 by pointofblue
The hope would be that it forces Russia to look inwards whilst they fight each other, abandoning Ukraine/the front line . The risk would be who wins and what their outlook is on Ukraine and the west. For all of Putin's faults, at least he has not escalated the situation to the point of going nuclear.
Whoever wins a civil war will be much weaker than Putin at the start of 2022. They will need to spend time and effort consolidating and rebuilding . Possibly having put themselves under the wing of an outside power (e.g. China).
Nuclear weapons are very limited in actual use. Even "battlefield" ones would cause a major international response and a full-on strategic exchange results in the destruction of both sides. Their main utility is as a deterrance, a threat that if a country is about to be overwhelmed, it can pull the whole house down.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:20 - Jun 24 by Guthrum
Indeed, tho the collapse of the Soviet Union passed with relatively little fighting beyond its borders.
Several commentators have speculated that Russia itself could fragment under such circumstances. There are culturally-ethnically distinct regions which did not break away in the early 1990s, but might do so now (especially with the rise of islamic nationalism). Other areas may simply want to remove themselves from Muscovite control or powerful players to establish independent personal authority.
It will be very interesting to hear what words come out of China in the next 48 hours.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:20 - Jun 24 by Guthrum
Indeed, tho the collapse of the Soviet Union passed with relatively little fighting beyond its borders.
Several commentators have speculated that Russia itself could fragment under such circumstances. There are culturally-ethnically distinct regions which did not break away in the early 1990s, but might do so now (especially with the rise of islamic nationalism). Other areas may simply want to remove themselves from Muscovite control or powerful players to establish independent personal authority.
Isnt the Muscovite state a relatively small geographical area?
Must admit other than Siberia and Kamchatka I have little knowledge of Russian geography
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:33 - Jun 24 by Guthrum
Probably not a lot. Watching and waiting to see what pieces they can pick up. Doubt Xi has much sentimental attachment to Putin.
He likes Russia being slightly beholden to him and won’t be unhappy if Putin is Weeknd. But I doubt he’ll want all out civil war without having some influence with the eventual winner imo.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:38 - Jun 24 by GlasgowBlue
He likes Russia being slightly beholden to him and won’t be unhappy if Putin is Weeknd. But I doubt he’ll want all out civil war without having some influence with the eventual winner imo.
Which requires watching and waiting to see who that is likely to be. Nothing like backing the wrong side to cook your goose.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:46 - Jun 24 by GlasgowBlue
Is Oliver North still alive?
Ok, but essentially surely it’s a risk for any government to put such substantial reliance on security in the hands of any organisation that can be bought ? Or are Wagner not in the business of making money?
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Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:53 - Jun 24 with 1330 views
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:40 - Jun 24 by Horsham
Given Wagner is essentially a private army reliant on being paid by somebody, is it possible they are being paid by the West now?
Firstly Prigozhin is very wealthy. Secondly, mercenary armies have historically often fought on promises of future plunder/reward/power. Thirdly, how much are they doing this out of loyalty to their boss and to gain revenge upon the military leadership for the loss of their comrades?
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:52 - Jun 24 by Horsham
Ok, but essentially surely it’s a risk for any government to put such substantial reliance on security in the hands of any organisation that can be bought ? Or are Wagner not in the business of making money?
I don't think Wagner have been bought (they are Russian nationalists as well as mercenaries). But that problem is a function of having a corrupt and poorly-performing military system. You end up needing to hire better troops from elsewhere to spearhead attacks.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 10:56 - Jun 24 by Guthrum
I don't think Wagner have been bought (they are Russian nationalists as well as mercenaries). But that problem is a function of having a corrupt and poorly-performing military system. You end up needing to hire better troops from elsewhere to spearhead attacks.
What also needs to be remembered is that Russia has been run like a Mafia state for the past few decades. All the main players are basically gangsters rather than politicians.
Eventually, no matter how well run they are, all criminal gangs have power struggles and occasional blood letting.
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