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Who could have guessed hiring a band of cut throats to fight a war for you could end up with them turning on you?
In the spirit of reconciliation and happiness at the end of the Banter Era (RIP) and as a result of promotion I have cleared out my ignore list. Look forwards to reading your posts!
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 11:00 - Jun 24 by GlasgowBlue
What also needs to be remembered is that Russia has been run like a Mafia state for the past few decades. All the main players are basically gangsters rather than politicians.
Eventually, no matter how well run they are, all criminal gangs have power struggles and occasional blood letting.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 11:17 - Jun 24 by NewcyBlue
The Tories are more of a corrupt mafia who would sell their own grandmother for a quid.
I wouldn’t urinate on them if they were on fire. But would grab my Jerry can.
In fairness, GB had compared Russia to a Mafia state. We’re nowhere near as bad here as a nation, despite the numerous failings, but can see the similarities in government and everyone looking out for themselves rather than what’s good for the country.
Back on topic, and the Chechen leader has come out in support of Putin. Interesting decision as, if they wanted independence, this may have been the time to try.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 11:04 - Jun 24 by JohnTy
To get a sense of perspective it is worth us all realising that Rostov and Rostov on Don are different places several hundred miles apart.
[Post edited 24 Jun 2023 11:05]
Google Maps has it as an 8 hour drive from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow, and there are reports that a Wagner military vehicle convoy has already reached Voronezh, which is roughly halfway.
How many troops does Putin have within 4 hours of Moscow? How likely is it that their commanders will respond quickly, as opposed to taking a while to muster and waiting to see which way the wind is blowing?
I detected the significant change in tone from Prigozhin, which has led to this point, a month ago, here:
Whisper it very quietly, by ArnoldMoorhen25 May 2023 13:26 but we may be witnessing the embryonic beginnings of a major shift in the Russia/Ukraine war.
Things are changing very quickly. Prigozhin (Wagner leader) has been in direct confrontation with the Russian Ministry of Defence for weeks:
Is Prigozhin withdrawing Wagner because he is expecting a Revolution and is preparing to defend Putin? Or because he wants to start one and is hoping to replace him?
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Civil war in Russia imminent? on 11:33 - Jun 24 with 1852 views
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 11:23 - Jun 24 by ArnoldMoorhen
Google Maps has it as an 8 hour drive from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow, and there are reports that a Wagner military vehicle convoy has already reached Voronezh, which is roughly halfway.
How many troops does Putin have within 4 hours of Moscow? How likely is it that their commanders will respond quickly, as opposed to taking a while to muster and waiting to see which way the wind is blowing?
I detected the significant change in tone from Prigozhin, which has led to this point, a month ago, here:
Whisper it very quietly, by ArnoldMoorhen25 May 2023 13:26 but we may be witnessing the embryonic beginnings of a major shift in the Russia/Ukraine war.
Things are changing very quickly. Prigozhin (Wagner leader) has been in direct confrontation with the Russian Ministry of Defence for weeks:
Is Prigozhin withdrawing Wagner because he is expecting a Revolution and is preparing to defend Putin? Or because he wants to start one and is hoping to replace him?
I Googled it earlier and got an estimate of just over twelve hours for the six hundred and eighty miles between Moscow and Rostov. I have to say as someone who has driven from Skye to Suffolk a few times that that seems more likely than eight hours. And that is in a decently powerful car, which has yet to suffer the journey under artillery fire...
So armoured columns with a variety of vehicles are going to take much longer, especially if they meet resistance. There again there are these things called aeroplanes that can cut down the transport time.
Seeing some twitter accounts suggesting this could be a massive Psyop to jure the Ukrainians into an unwise assault. Seems unlikely given how easily this could escalate, says everything about Russian information warfare that you can't discount it though!
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 11:33 - Jun 24 by WeWereZombies
I Googled it earlier and got an estimate of just over twelve hours for the six hundred and eighty miles between Moscow and Rostov. I have to say as someone who has driven from Skye to Suffolk a few times that that seems more likely than eight hours. And that is in a decently powerful car, which has yet to suffer the journey under artillery fire...
So armoured columns with a variety of vehicles are going to take much longer, especially if they meet resistance. There again there are these things called aeroplanes that can cut down the transport time.
[Post edited 24 Jun 2023 11:33]
Someone has just bombed a fuel depot in Voronezh, presumably to deny fuel to advancing Wagner columns.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 11:43 - Jun 24 by Guthrum
Indeed. It's a serious emergency if you start destroying your own infrastructure.
It also suggests that they have very little faith in defending the road to Moscow, or the city itself should Wagner make it there, so are trying to stall them instead.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 11:23 - Jun 24 by ArnoldMoorhen
Google Maps has it as an 8 hour drive from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow, and there are reports that a Wagner military vehicle convoy has already reached Voronezh, which is roughly halfway.
How many troops does Putin have within 4 hours of Moscow? How likely is it that their commanders will respond quickly, as opposed to taking a while to muster and waiting to see which way the wind is blowing?
I detected the significant change in tone from Prigozhin, which has led to this point, a month ago, here:
Whisper it very quietly, by ArnoldMoorhen25 May 2023 13:26 but we may be witnessing the embryonic beginnings of a major shift in the Russia/Ukraine war.
Things are changing very quickly. Prigozhin (Wagner leader) has been in direct confrontation with the Russian Ministry of Defence for weeks:
Is Prigozhin withdrawing Wagner because he is expecting a Revolution and is preparing to defend Putin? Or because he wants to start one and is hoping to replace him?
The famous Taman Division is based just south of Moscow. They would presumably be the main resistance to Wagner's advance.
And Forbes reports them as still in Ukraine with severely degraded capacity in January 2023:
"The army’s 2nd Motor Rifle Division “is now primarily made up of mobilized personnel operating older equipment taken from storage,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated. “Its combat effectiveness will likely be limited despite several weeks of training.” "
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 11:37 - Jun 24 by Charlie_pl_baxter
Seeing some twitter accounts suggesting this could be a massive Psyop to jure the Ukrainians into an unwise assault. Seems unlikely given how easily this could escalate, says everything about Russian information warfare that you can't discount it though!
Very unlikely, given Putin's televised speech, evidence of actual destruction (the fuel depot at Voronezh) and the language used by everybody. Also bearing in mind that Ukraine's friends (and suppliers of intelligence) will be able to "see" some of what's going on.
In any case, what do they expect to entice Ukraine to do? The offensive is already underway. Russian forces don't appear to have stopped resisting, so attacks will continue to be cautious. The Ukrainians are more likely to wait for the Russians to collapse than to do anything precipitate while events are still unclear.
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 11:23 - Jun 24 by ArnoldMoorhen
Google Maps has it as an 8 hour drive from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow, and there are reports that a Wagner military vehicle convoy has already reached Voronezh, which is roughly halfway.
How many troops does Putin have within 4 hours of Moscow? How likely is it that their commanders will respond quickly, as opposed to taking a while to muster and waiting to see which way the wind is blowing?
I detected the significant change in tone from Prigozhin, which has led to this point, a month ago, here:
Whisper it very quietly, by ArnoldMoorhen25 May 2023 13:26 but we may be witnessing the embryonic beginnings of a major shift in the Russia/Ukraine war.
Things are changing very quickly. Prigozhin (Wagner leader) has been in direct confrontation with the Russian Ministry of Defence for weeks:
Is Prigozhin withdrawing Wagner because he is expecting a Revolution and is preparing to defend Putin? Or because he wants to start one and is hoping to replace him?
Putin has a lot of aircraft between them and Moscow, how much anti aircraft does the Wagner group hold?
As Ukraine discovered you need anti aircraft support if you need to make progress.
While Putin probably isn't keen to bomb to oblivion on Russian soil in the same way as he has in Syria & Ukraine there is going to be a lot of open land on route to Moscow.
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Civil war in Russia imminent? on 12:23 - Jun 24 with 1688 views
And Forbes reports them as still in Ukraine with severely degraded capacity in January 2023:
"The army’s 2nd Motor Rifle Division “is now primarily made up of mobilized personnel operating older equipment taken from storage,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated. “Its combat effectiveness will likely be limited despite several weeks of training.” "
I thought only part of the division had been used in Ukraine? Their base units and reserves will be south of Moscow anyway and are probably the closest regular forces to Wagner's line of advance (that I am aware of).
Civil war in Russia imminent? on 12:23 - Jun 24 by Guthrum
I thought only part of the division had been used in Ukraine? Their base units and reserves will be south of Moscow anyway and are probably the closest regular forces to Wagner's line of advance (that I am aware of).
I think the degrading of the Russian military is potentially a factor. Firstly their elite divisions have shown themselves not to be very good and 16 months of war won’t have exactly strengthened them.
Destroying a fuel dump isn’t a great sign of confidence.
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Civil war in Russia imminent? on 20:26 - Jun 24 with 1405 views
In the spirit of reconciliation and happiness at the end of the Banter Era (RIP) and as a result of promotion I have cleared out my ignore list. Look forwards to reading your posts!
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