| Thinking out loud 18:16 - Oct 9 with 7858 views | Unhinged_dynamo |
This calendar year we are averaging 2.33 ppg
This season so far we are averaging 2.54 ppg
Leeds are currently in 5th on 19 points and are more than likely the most capable team below us that could chase us down (squad depth and quality, manager etc)
If our ppg drops due to a bad run and we average 2 ppg from here on in we would still achieve 98
Leeds would need to increase their ppg from 1.72 to 2.3 to reach 99 which although not impossible would be a big ask
If the dream is to come true there is a hell of a long way to go and anything can happen but the team have really put themselves in a great position |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 21:23 - Oct 9 with 1390 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 21:11 - Oct 9 by Kropotkin123 |
Small sample size? 11.5 games is 25% of the season. What is an adequate sample size to start believing we could maintain top 2? 30%? 40%? the whole season? |
Good question. Probably 16-18 games. At the point where taking 3-4 points off us and adding 3-4 points on to others no longer changes the story.
Btw, I believe we could be top 2 today but as per earlier posts, I do not share the confidence of the OP that only Leeds can catch us and that is unlikely. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 21:25 - Oct 9 with 1352 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Thinking out loud on 19:29 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
For the quality of Southampton’s squad (£150m of fees paid in the side they fielded against us, they appeared to be struggling to implement the way Russell Martin wants them to play. Our goal was from them losing possession playing out. They struggled in other early season games for the same reason. I watched them v Leeds and they have got the system working a lot better and beat Leeds comfortably. They will get better as the season progresses.
Leeds struggled early in the season. Also lots of player churn but recent results have got them up the table. They have a £50m forward line.
I can make similar arguments for Sunderland (who have signed strikers since we played them) and to a lesser extent Boro, again lots of player churn but recent results more in line with expectations.
Leicester have been the side that have kept finding a way to win despite losing a lot of key players. Similar to us, I believe their ppg season to date flatters them.
As much as I am loving this season, I do find projections based on early season games too simplistic and the OP that Leeds are the only side who can catch us but that would be a big ask may not age well. [Post edited 9 Oct 2023 19:31]
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our goal was from them playing out"
That would be because town have the highest number of interceptions in the opposition half in the league and a pressing style worked on in training. That goal was scored by a new player. Someone you could say was still gelling with his teammates.
Leeds recently lost 3 1 to that same side that's struggled to play the way the manager wants. Leeds also only won 1-0 against qpr.
Sunderland you mention their winning spree
They've played 4 of the bottom 5. And only won 2 against sides in top 10.
If you look into town as you other clubs. You could say. We've started the season with 2nd choice goalkeeper.
Fullbacks have had injury problems. We missed our starting striker for half the fixtures we've played, we've had broadhead injured for some etc etc.
We've also had to very quickly get used the championship level of football which is by far superior to league 1. We aren't even in control of the ball as much as we were last season. Yet have Learned new ways of playing our usual style without the need to play lambert ball on our own half |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 21:25 - Oct 9 with 1374 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Thinking out loud on 21:19 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
I do not but thank you nonetheless.
Your lines for survival, etc. are based on averages.
Town's line is actual and prone to reversion to the mean.
Knew that MSc maths would come in useful at some point.... |
I just randomly did 90, 75 and 50. I think it is 86 for auto and maybe 74 for play off. Thought this would do the job for my own fun.
Thought it would be funny to share, given the conversation. You are right, of course, "Town's line is actual and prone to reversion to the mean"! |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 21:27 - Oct 9 with 1363 views | Vegtablue |
| Thinking out loud on 21:15 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
I am not against xG related data, and as you say our numbers are really good so far this season.
I also think we could have easily left Sunderland and QPR without the wins and it was Cardiff's tactical errors that got us back into the game at PR. Suddenly 28 points becomes 20-22...
I think we are nailed on top 10, have a really good chance of top 6 and top 2 is not impossible. Really interested to see what Tuanzebe brings to the team too.
I am old enough to remember us being the best team in the country in 81/82 and not winning the title, missing out on play offs and automatic promotion in Burley era and more. Games and promotion will be won on the pitch not a spreadsheet. |
I agree with you that a draw would have been fairer against Sunderland and QPR. Leeds shouldn't have been a loss with the same allowances, as we spurned several superb chances and they were clinical.
I respect your caution x-ray and agree that we're nowhere near popping the corks yet. I only disagree is in respect to what the current book of evidence suggests. If we extrapolate from all the information provided so far and ignore the reality that this league is long and typically replete with plot twists, we deservedly finish in automatic promotion. Oh if only it were so easy eh. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 21:31 - Oct 9 with 1357 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 21:25 - Oct 9 by Kropotkin123 |
I just randomly did 90, 75 and 50. I think it is 86 for auto and maybe 74 for play off. Thought this would do the job for my own fun.
Thought it would be funny to share, given the conversation. You are right, of course, "Town's line is actual and prone to reversion to the mean"! |
I suspect your numbers are about right. Someone posted the averages recently but I cannot remember them but ball park they are right.
We are flying, no mistake, and long may this continue. I first came to PR in the mid 70s when Bobby was manager and 25-30k was normal. Football has changed a lot since then but the atmosphere at PR and the feel good factor is unlike anything I have known. And none of this team would get into the 1981 side.
Lots to be positive about but too early to get ahead of ourselves. One game at a time... | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 21:37 - Oct 9 with 1350 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 21:27 - Oct 9 by Vegtablue |
I agree with you that a draw would have been fairer against Sunderland and QPR. Leeds shouldn't have been a loss with the same allowances, as we spurned several superb chances and they were clinical.
I respect your caution x-ray and agree that we're nowhere near popping the corks yet. I only disagree is in respect to what the current book of evidence suggests. If we extrapolate from all the information provided so far and ignore the reality that this league is long and typically replete with plot twists, we deservedly finish in automatic promotion. Oh if only it were so easy eh. |
Agree with that, I thought we were the better side against Leeds and a mad 10 mins and some rare Hladky errors cost us the points.
I do not dispute the data look really good. My point is that we hit the ground running, while a lot of teams are still finding their feet with new look teams. Long may that advantage continue. You would though expect quality will rise to the surface and Leeds, Leicester, Southampton and a few others have better squads than us. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 21:39 - Oct 9 with 1348 views | Churchman |
| Thinking out loud on 18:38 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
A top six finish will be a very good outcome this season and that is far from certain.
We have come out on the right end of some very close games. We could easily have had less than 20 points to date. Hung on against a Sunderland team who were toothless up front, did not deserve the win at QPR, needed Hladky heroics and a late equaliser at Huddersfield. Cardiff were cruising until they decided to protect their two goal lead. We needed Hladky face to save us a point against Southampton. We could have got something from Leeds game to be fair.
Our PPG will not be sustained at the current levels and you cannot assume 2ppg, that itself is exceptional form.
We have had a head start on teams who are still integrating new players, which has been great.
Leicester, Leeds and Southampton have quality and will be there or thereabouts for automatic promotion. Sunderland and Boro starting to find their form too. I also expect to see Coventry move up the table as their new players settle in.
Great to have a lead over third but to assume we are going to maintain or grow this gap given the quality in this division is far too optimistic for me. |
I agree with top six being a very good achievement. But I disagree with the rest.
We have come out on top in close games because we deserved to. I watched the Sunderland game. They started well and finished well, but the bit in the middle? They were lucky not to be 3-0 before they were deservedly down to 10 men. We deserved the win. Cardiff? Saw that too. Cardiff put in a classic away performance for 58 mins then got torn to bits.
QPR? Yes, the lad who hit the post was unlucky but last 30 mins, we dominated and deserved it. Southampton? Saw most of that. Southampton were lucky to lose by only one goal. Leeds? I saw the game and I thought they deserved the win.
We have the points we deserve. No more, no less. We are doing great because we have a really good team. Will others get stronger? Some will, some won’t. McKenna thinks we will get stronger. Who am I to disagree??? As it goes, like last season, I think we will. We are going to smash a few teams this season. The Hull game will tell you that.
Assuming the gap to third will increase or disappear? Nobody knows, but after 25% of the season, I think we are for real. |  | | |
| Thinking out loud on 21:50 - Oct 9 with 1327 views | Herbivore |
| Thinking out loud on 21:01 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sadly, we are not going to be playing L1 sides this season.
Imv there is too much reliance on (partially) flawed xG data and the extapolation of data based on a small sample size (11 games), where just a few changed results massively changes your projections. |
So if we ignore the actual data and pretend our results weren't as good then things look less rosy? Cheers for that. |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 21:55 - Oct 9 with 1322 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 21:39 - Oct 9 by Churchman |
I agree with top six being a very good achievement. But I disagree with the rest.
We have come out on top in close games because we deserved to. I watched the Sunderland game. They started well and finished well, but the bit in the middle? They were lucky not to be 3-0 before they were deservedly down to 10 men. We deserved the win. Cardiff? Saw that too. Cardiff put in a classic away performance for 58 mins then got torn to bits.
QPR? Yes, the lad who hit the post was unlucky but last 30 mins, we dominated and deserved it. Southampton? Saw most of that. Southampton were lucky to lose by only one goal. Leeds? I saw the game and I thought they deserved the win.
We have the points we deserve. No more, no less. We are doing great because we have a really good team. Will others get stronger? Some will, some won’t. McKenna thinks we will get stronger. Who am I to disagree??? As it goes, like last season, I think we will. We are going to smash a few teams this season. The Hull game will tell you that.
Assuming the gap to third will increase or disappear? Nobody knows, but after 25% of the season, I think we are for real. |
Sunderland - we could/should have been 2 down early on, Bellingham missed a sitter. While I agree at 2-0 we should have had a penalty and they should have been down to 10, it was not given and we ended up hanging on.
Cardiff - I disagree. They bossed the game and had they continued their approach and not shut up shop, they would have taken home the points.
Southampton - apart from the goal we created little.
Leeds - I thought we were the better side but gave them three goals, Which you cannot do.
As per earlier posts, I think our ppg flatters us. However, we are a new and improving side and January could see some additional upgrades.
Loving this season but lets not get ahead of ourselves. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 21:57 - Oct 9 with 1314 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 21:50 - Oct 9 by Herbivore |
So if we ignore the actual data and pretend our results weren't as good then things look less rosy? Cheers for that. |
Last seasons data is not relevant. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 21:59 - Oct 9 with 1302 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Thinking out loud on 21:55 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sunderland - we could/should have been 2 down early on, Bellingham missed a sitter. While I agree at 2-0 we should have had a penalty and they should have been down to 10, it was not given and we ended up hanging on.
Cardiff - I disagree. They bossed the game and had they continued their approach and not shut up shop, they would have taken home the points.
Southampton - apart from the goal we created little.
Leeds - I thought we were the better side but gave them three goals, Which you cannot do.
As per earlier posts, I think our ppg flatters us. However, we are a new and improving side and January could see some additional upgrades.
Loving this season but lets not get ahead of ourselves. |
You're just repeating what you said earlier in the thread. Every team (including us) can point out where they missed a sitter.
The only metric that matters so far is the League Table, and after 11 games it doesn't lie. |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Thinking out loud on 22:00 - Oct 9 with 1312 views | Herbivore |
| Thinking out loud on 21:57 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Last seasons data is not relevant. |
Where have I mentioned last season? This season's data is very impressive but you seem to be downplaying it whilst imagining scenarios where we didn't win games we won. You mentioned being a realist, that's the opposite of realism. | |
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| Thinking out loud on 22:01 - Oct 9 with 1296 views | FrimleyBlue |
| Thinking out loud on 21:55 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sunderland - we could/should have been 2 down early on, Bellingham missed a sitter. While I agree at 2-0 we should have had a penalty and they should have been down to 10, it was not given and we ended up hanging on.
Cardiff - I disagree. They bossed the game and had they continued their approach and not shut up shop, they would have taken home the points.
Southampton - apart from the goal we created little.
Leeds - I thought we were the better side but gave them three goals, Which you cannot do.
As per earlier posts, I think our ppg flatters us. However, we are a new and improving side and January could see some additional upgrades.
Loving this season but lets not get ahead of ourselves. |
Southampton.. 13 shots to ipswich 11. Both 3 on target.
Cardiff. Ipswich 54% possession. 18 shots to Cardiffs 13
Leeds. We also scored 3. | |
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| Thinking out loud on 22:09 - Oct 9 with 1301 views | Guthrum |
| Thinking out loud on 21:01 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sadly, we are not going to be playing L1 sides this season.
Imv there is too much reliance on (partially) flawed xG data and the extapolation of data based on a small sample size (11 games), where just a few changed results massively changes your projections. |
I agree in the sense that it is too early to be counting chickens yet.
But equally, it's gone on too long to merely be a series of flukes. With our goalscoring, fitness and determination not to give up, ITFC are one of the better teams in the division, even if things do drop off a bit. |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 22:14 - Oct 9 with 1280 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 22:00 - Oct 9 by Herbivore |
Where have I mentioned last season? This season's data is very impressive but you seem to be downplaying it whilst imagining scenarios where we didn't win games we won. You mentioned being a realist, that's the opposite of realism. |
Sorry. Misread your post, you were referring to this season.
Yes, exactly that. We have a great ppg after 11 games. But small margins would reduce that to top six level rather than a proposed top 2 as per OP. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 22:18 - Oct 9 with 1274 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 22:09 - Oct 9 by Guthrum |
I agree in the sense that it is too early to be counting chickens yet.
But equally, it's gone on too long to merely be a series of flukes. With our goalscoring, fitness and determination not to give up, ITFC are one of the better teams in the division, even if things do drop off a bit. |
Yep. With the caveat that we have done better in early games than those who have lots of player churn. And our squad is not as good as those with parachute payment. Top six potential but far from guaranteed. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 22:20 - Oct 9 with 1264 views | Churchman |
| Thinking out loud on 21:55 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sunderland - we could/should have been 2 down early on, Bellingham missed a sitter. While I agree at 2-0 we should have had a penalty and they should have been down to 10, it was not given and we ended up hanging on.
Cardiff - I disagree. They bossed the game and had they continued their approach and not shut up shop, they would have taken home the points.
Southampton - apart from the goal we created little.
Leeds - I thought we were the better side but gave them three goals, Which you cannot do.
As per earlier posts, I think our ppg flatters us. However, we are a new and improving side and January could see some additional upgrades.
Loving this season but lets not get ahead of ourselves. |
It’s no good saying they should have been two up then in the same para say at 2-0 we should have had a penalty, but it was not given and we ended up hanging on. They didn’t score two early on either. In fact they lost.
Cardiff. I was at the game. They didn’t boss it. They just did counter attack as the away team well. In addition to their substitutions (they made them, not us), they were overrun. They ran out of gas. We didn’t stop. Three points well earned in the end against a strong team. Regardless, your view is yours. Think what you like. Few Southampton fans thought they deserved anything. You clearly disagree.
I just happen to think we are a little better than you are giving us credit for. 11 games is a good measure. 28 points. [Post edited 9 Oct 2023 22:22]
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| Thinking out loud on 22:25 - Oct 9 with 1253 views | Herbivore |
| Thinking out loud on 22:14 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sorry. Misread your post, you were referring to this season.
Yes, exactly that. We have a great ppg after 11 games. But small margins would reduce that to top six level rather than a proposed top 2 as per OP. |
But we are where we deserve to be. We've got the best attacking stats in the division and around 6th best defensively. I'm not sure what more you want. In each of the games where you've suggested moments went in our favour we had other moments that didn't so not sure the argument carries much weight. We're top 2 on merit thus far and our last two performances against top 6 sides suggest we're getting better if anything. | |
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| Thinking out loud on 22:34 - Oct 9 with 1242 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 22:20 - Oct 9 by Churchman |
It’s no good saying they should have been two up then in the same para say at 2-0 we should have had a penalty, but it was not given and we ended up hanging on. They didn’t score two early on either. In fact they lost.
Cardiff. I was at the game. They didn’t boss it. They just did counter attack as the away team well. In addition to their substitutions (they made them, not us), they were overrun. They ran out of gas. We didn’t stop. Three points well earned in the end against a strong team. Regardless, your view is yours. Think what you like. Few Southampton fans thought they deserved anything. You clearly disagree.
I just happen to think we are a little better than you are giving us credit for. 11 games is a good measure. 28 points. [Post edited 9 Oct 2023 22:22]
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Sunderland should have been 2 up. It would have been a very different game. And despite going 2 up we got away with a win.
I have been to most games this season. Cardiff were 2 up and we were all over the place.
Southampton were awful with £150m in starting line up and on bench. We deserved the win but had Hladky not saved with his face, we would had had a point.
Unlike last half season, this is a much more competitive league, Absolutely loving our start but not taking anything for granted. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 22:39 - Oct 9 with 1235 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 22:25 - Oct 9 by Herbivore |
But we are where we deserve to be. We've got the best attacking stats in the division and around 6th best defensively. I'm not sure what more you want. In each of the games where you've suggested moments went in our favour we had other moments that didn't so not sure the argument carries much weight. We're top 2 on merit thus far and our last two performances against top 6 sides suggest we're getting better if anything. |
We started ahead of teams in transition.
Can we keep it up?
Hopefully, but you can see the bigger (parachute clubs) getting closer? | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 22:43 - Oct 9 with 1230 views | Vegtablue |
| Thinking out loud on 21:55 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sunderland - we could/should have been 2 down early on, Bellingham missed a sitter. While I agree at 2-0 we should have had a penalty and they should have been down to 10, it was not given and we ended up hanging on.
Cardiff - I disagree. They bossed the game and had they continued their approach and not shut up shop, they would have taken home the points.
Southampton - apart from the goal we created little.
Leeds - I thought we were the better side but gave them three goals, Which you cannot do.
As per earlier posts, I think our ppg flatters us. However, we are a new and improving side and January could see some additional upgrades.
Loving this season but lets not get ahead of ourselves. |
You're becoming less precise with your views IMO. You didn't disagree with the data presented earlier, which presents a firm case for us being at the top of the division in respect to chances created vs chances conceded. xG attempts to measure the value of these chances, to differentiate between good ones and bad ones, and in this regard we are 2nd. We are 2nd in the table. Our PPG flatters us to the extent that we are further in front than we often would be, if chances were replayed multiple times over, but we definitely should be in front of 22 teams in the table.
Your penultimate sentence therefore looks very out of place. Newness, improving, hope for January upgrades.. these are sentiments that are appropriate for a team that has a gap to close, not for a team that deserves to have a higher PPG than all but one. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 22:48 - Oct 9 with 1225 views | MJallday |
My view is that 88 points will be enough to get us promised based on the last few seasons tables
That means we have 35 games to get 60 points. 1.71 average
We’re at 2.24. So im optimistic |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 22:49 - Oct 9 with 1220 views | Kropotkin123 |
| Thinking out loud on 22:34 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sunderland should have been 2 up. It would have been a very different game. And despite going 2 up we got away with a win.
I have been to most games this season. Cardiff were 2 up and we were all over the place.
Southampton were awful with £150m in starting line up and on bench. We deserved the win but had Hladky not saved with his face, we would had had a point.
Unlike last half season, this is a much more competitive league, Absolutely loving our start but not taking anything for granted. |
I think you are cherry picking the chances. In the vast majority of games we have had the better chances, which are born out in metrics such as:
XGF (1st), XGA (6th), XGD (1st),
goals scored (1st), Goals conceded (5th)
shots pg (1st), shots against PG (6th), shots OT pg (1st), shots in the penalty area (1st),
tackles pg (2nd) | |
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| Thinking out loud on 22:52 - Oct 9 with 1214 views | Churchman |
| Thinking out loud on 22:34 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sunderland should have been 2 up. It would have been a very different game. And despite going 2 up we got away with a win.
I have been to most games this season. Cardiff were 2 up and we were all over the place.
Southampton were awful with £150m in starting line up and on bench. We deserved the win but had Hladky not saved with his face, we would had had a point.
Unlike last half season, this is a much more competitive league, Absolutely loving our start but not taking anything for granted. |
If we’d gone 3-0 up it’d have been game over. Can’t see your point. We won at SoL first game of the season. It was a good result and we deserved it. End of.
Cardiff? We were not all over the place. We were still playing, but we’ve been open to the counter at home and I’ve no doubt KM will try and address it. It wasn’t just Cardiff stopping. It was our pace, bravery, management of subs by KM, fitness of the players too.
We’ve scored a lot of goals at home and missed a good few chances too. Something they’ll try and improve I’m sure.
Southampton got what they deserved. Zilch. You can’t distort by taking individual moments in isolation in my view.
We know it’s more competitive division. We know there are strong teams, parachute clubs etc. But there’s nothing to be negative or cautious about.
We will lose games, have bad patches, but the direction this club is heading is one I’m enjoying - big picture.
For the record, the support for this club has never been better. You cited average crowds in the 70s, but they were inflated by a higher capacity and take up for the big games. There were many occasions in those brilliant days when the crowd was well below what we are getting now. It’s phenomenal and something for the club to capitalise on if possible. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 22:55 - Oct 9 with 1212 views | Guthrum |
| Thinking out loud on 22:18 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Yep. With the caveat that we have done better in early games than those who have lots of player churn. And our squad is not as good as those with parachute payment. Top six potential but far from guaranteed. |
Sure. But while they've been getting it together, ourselves and Leicester have been building up a quite substantial head start.
Also, we don't need to beat all the top teams*, just the middling and lower ones. Several of whom don't have better squads than us, or are in chaos due to peculiar managers or mad owners. Plus we're developing a bit of a hoodoo over other teams, almost scaring them.
* Tho we have already banked wins over five of the current top ten. | |
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