| Thinking out loud 18:16 - Oct 9 with 7862 views | Unhinged_dynamo |
This calendar year we are averaging 2.33 ppg
This season so far we are averaging 2.54 ppg
Leeds are currently in 5th on 19 points and are more than likely the most capable team below us that could chase us down (squad depth and quality, manager etc)
If our ppg drops due to a bad run and we average 2 ppg from here on in we would still achieve 98
Leeds would need to increase their ppg from 1.72 to 2.3 to reach 99 which although not impossible would be a big ask
If the dream is to come true there is a hell of a long way to go and anything can happen but the team have really put themselves in a great position |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 23:08 - Oct 9 with 1790 views | Guthrum |
| Thinking out loud on 22:18 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Yep. With the caveat that we have done better in early games than those who have lots of player churn. And our squad is not as good as those with parachute payment. Top six potential but far from guaranteed. |
Also, countering the parachute payment angle, we've picked up some very talented Prem youths on loan. If raw, perhaps of quality not far off some of the big summer purchases. Brandon Williams has as many League goals as Ellis Simms (and the latter's both came against QPR). Hutchinson also has two, one of them against Prem Wolves' second string. |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 23:23 - Oct 9 with 1756 views | Herbivore |
| Thinking out loud on 22:39 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
We started ahead of teams in transition.
Can we keep it up?
Hopefully, but you can see the bigger (parachute clubs) getting closer? |
We're also adapting to playing at a higher level, and if anything we seem to be improving. Two games against sides in the top 6 over the last week and we won both, scoring 7 and conceding 2. That's very good. Both opposing managers seemed to think there's every chance we'll be right up there this season. |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 23:35 - Oct 9 with 1744 views | XYZ |
| Thinking out loud on 22:39 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
We started ahead of teams in transition.
Can we keep it up?
Hopefully, but you can see the bigger (parachute clubs) getting closer? |
Get a clean pair of pants and strap yourself in for the ride. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 00:48 - Oct 10 with 1724 views | Vegtablue |
| Thinking out loud on 20:48 - Oct 9 by Guthrum |
Thing is, with the start we've had, Leeds would have to manage a PPG of 0.26 better than ours just to catch up. An effective swing of nearly 1.08 PPG from the present rates.
If Leeds maintained their current PPG and we suddenly went on a run like between Charlton H and Bristol Rovers A last season, it would be the end of March before they overtook us. |
Playing devil's advocate briefly:
In recent seasons,
Burnley had 20 points after 11 games and finished with 101.
Fulham had 20 and finished with 90.
Norwich had 21 and finished with 97.
Watford had 21 and finished with 91.
Norwich had 18 and finished with 94.
From what I've seen and read of Leeds so far, I don't think we can rule them out of finishing in that company. They're on 19 points now, which is a respectable platform from which to pass the milestone of 90 points. Two sides commonly pass 90 in a Championship season, after all (four times in the past seven), and the starts we and Leicester have enjoyed are freak occurrences.
Candidly, the signs are already pointing to another anomalous season. Arguably L1 was Plymouth's doing, as much as our comeback was remarkable. This time we're unquestionably the whopper anomaly, playing as though four were relegated from the Prem last season, and we've not received enough indication from other promotion candidates that they are going to fall short of typical performances. Leicester are clearly whoppers as well but for less complimentary reasons; they were relegated with the most expensively assembled side of all time and are now in prime position to break records. If we do reach 90, which would be a mind-blowing achievement even from here, I'm not confident we would be one of only two clubs to do so. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 08:26 - Oct 10 with 1659 views | BiGDonnie |
| Thinking out loud on 19:29 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
For the quality of Southampton’s squad (£150m of fees paid in the side they fielded against us, they appeared to be struggling to implement the way Russell Martin wants them to play. Our goal was from them losing possession playing out. They struggled in other early season games for the same reason. I watched them v Leeds and they have got the system working a lot better and beat Leeds comfortably. They will get better as the season progresses.
Leeds struggled early in the season. Also lots of player churn but recent results have got them up the table. They have a £50m forward line.
I can make similar arguments for Sunderland (who have signed strikers since we played them) and to a lesser extent Boro, again lots of player churn but recent results more in line with expectations.
Leicester have been the side that have kept finding a way to win despite losing a lot of key players. Similar to us, I believe their ppg season to date flatters them.
As much as I am loving this season, I do find projections based on early season games too simplistic and the OP that Leeds are the only side who can catch us but that would be a big ask may not age well. [Post edited 9 Oct 2023 19:31]
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So you can guarantee that Southampton, Leeds, Sunderland etc will get better and that we will get worse?
Whilst i can see your workings out, I don't agree and think it's a negative viewpoint.
FWIW I think we're going to go from strength to strength and dominate the league along with Leicester. |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 08:39 - Oct 10 with 1646 views | Herbivore |
| Thinking out loud on 00:48 - Oct 10 by Vegtablue |
Playing devil's advocate briefly:
In recent seasons,
Burnley had 20 points after 11 games and finished with 101.
Fulham had 20 and finished with 90.
Norwich had 21 and finished with 97.
Watford had 21 and finished with 91.
Norwich had 18 and finished with 94.
From what I've seen and read of Leeds so far, I don't think we can rule them out of finishing in that company. They're on 19 points now, which is a respectable platform from which to pass the milestone of 90 points. Two sides commonly pass 90 in a Championship season, after all (four times in the past seven), and the starts we and Leicester have enjoyed are freak occurrences.
Candidly, the signs are already pointing to another anomalous season. Arguably L1 was Plymouth's doing, as much as our comeback was remarkable. This time we're unquestionably the whopper anomaly, playing as though four were relegated from the Prem last season, and we've not received enough indication from other promotion candidates that they are going to fall short of typical performances. Leicester are clearly whoppers as well but for less complimentary reasons; they were relegated with the most expensively assembled side of all time and are now in prime position to break records. If we do reach 90, which would be a mind-blowing achievement even from here, I'm not confident we would be one of only two clubs to do so. |
Your assumption it's going to be an anomalous season is based on predicting Leeds to improve from where they are though. Currently, they aren't on to achieve 90 points and I've not seen a lot of evidence to suggest they are rapidly improving to the point they are going to average over 2 points per game from here on in. They've had narrow one goal wins at home to bottom half Bristol City and relegation candidates QPR, before which they lost to a Saints side who had been on a pretty poor run themselves, shipping goals for fun at St Mary's. Before that it was a draw with Hull, who we handled easily in the end, and a win over a struggling Watford. On paper they look decent enough but on the pitch they look very hit and miss so I wouldn't confidently predict them going on a storming run over the remaining 35 games. The anomalies at the moment are us and Leicester, producing something like two of the best five Championship starts ever in the same year. The teams below us are about on par with what you'd expect. | |
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| Thinking out loud on 08:48 - Oct 10 with 1642 views | Dyland |
| Thinking out loud on 22:34 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sunderland should have been 2 up. It would have been a very different game. And despite going 2 up we got away with a win.
I have been to most games this season. Cardiff were 2 up and we were all over the place.
Southampton were awful with £150m in starting line up and on bench. We deserved the win but had Hladky not saved with his face, we would had had a point.
Unlike last half season, this is a much more competitive league, Absolutely loving our start but not taking anything for granted. |
You repeat this "saved with his face" line... if the ball had gone a little either side, he would have saved with a hand, etc. It was a save. The striker should have buried it maybe, but you can say that for a load of our close chances too.
I agree one hundred percent that we are nowhere near home and dry, for top six let alone autos. It's far too early by whatever percentage of games one wants to measure it. Very early days, and also agree with you we should be cautious and humble. And yes, of course a top six finish would be an amazing season.
Your examples of fine margins are very one sided and negative, as commented elsewhere. I'm not sure if it was you who reported my last post as abuse, but for the record Eeyore is one of my favourite characters of all time :) |  |
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| Thinking out loud on 08:59 - Oct 10 with 1621 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 22:43 - Oct 9 by Vegtablue |
You're becoming less precise with your views IMO. You didn't disagree with the data presented earlier, which presents a firm case for us being at the top of the division in respect to chances created vs chances conceded. xG attempts to measure the value of these chances, to differentiate between good ones and bad ones, and in this regard we are 2nd. We are 2nd in the table. Our PPG flatters us to the extent that we are further in front than we often would be, if chances were replayed multiple times over, but we definitely should be in front of 22 teams in the table.
Your penultimate sentence therefore looks very out of place. Newness, improving, hope for January upgrades.. these are sentiments that are appropriate for a team that has a gap to close, not for a team that deserves to have a higher PPG than all but one. |
My view has not changed. That we have had a great start but have come out the right side of games that could have quite easily gone against us. Which is why I do not believe our current ppg is a reliable predictor of how we will finish the season.
Add in getting a head start on teams who were in transition who you would expect (especially those with much bigger budgets than us) to get stronger as the season wears on.
On xG and related stats. I acknowledged that they look good but that is not the same as accepting them. I posted earlier that they can be flawed. Plymouth being a good example of a side last season who performed better than their xG for a whole season. | | | |
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| Thinking out loud on 09:01 - Oct 10 with 1614 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Thinking out loud on 22:34 - Oct 9 by xrayspecs |
Sunderland should have been 2 up. It would have been a very different game. And despite going 2 up we got away with a win.
I have been to most games this season. Cardiff were 2 up and we were all over the place.
Southampton were awful with £150m in starting line up and on bench. We deserved the win but had Hladky not saved with his face, we would had had a point.
Unlike last half season, this is a much more competitive league, Absolutely loving our start but not taking anything for granted. |
Every chance you cherrypick, someone could cherrypick something for us.
"Sunderland should have been 2 up. It would have been a very different game. And despite going 2 up we got away with a win."
Ipswich should have been 3-0 up. Chaplin lobbed the keeper and hit the bar... and then Hirst was brought down in the box in the follow up, which should've been a penalty.
At Southampton, Hladky's allowed to save with any part of his body. That's not lucky, it's spreading yourself and making yourself as big as possible.
No-one's taking anything for granted and no-one's said top 6 is guaranteed. You seem to have dug yourself into a hole and just keep repeating the same nonsense. |  |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Thinking out loud on 09:03 - Oct 10 with 1613 views | xrayspecs |
| Thinking out loud on 00:48 - Oct 10 by Vegtablue |
Playing devil's advocate briefly:
In recent seasons,
Burnley had 20 points after 11 games and finished with 101.
Fulham had 20 and finished with 90.
Norwich had 21 and finished with 97.
Watford had 21 and finished with 91.
Norwich had 18 and finished with 94.
From what I've seen and read of Leeds so far, I don't think we can rule them out of finishing in that company. They're on 19 points now, which is a respectable platform from which to pass the milestone of 90 points. Two sides commonly pass 90 in a Championship season, after all (four times in the past seven), and the starts we and Leicester have enjoyed are freak occurrences.
Candidly, the signs are already pointing to another anomalous season. Arguably L1 was Plymouth's doing, as much as our comeback was remarkable. This time we're unquestionably the whopper anomaly, playing as though four were relegated from the Prem last season, and we've not received enough indication from other promotion candidates that they are going to fall short of typical performances. Leicester are clearly whoppers as well but for less complimentary reasons; they were relegated with the most expensively assembled side of all time and are now in prime position to break records. If we do reach 90, which would be a mind-blowing achievement even from here, I'm not confident we would be one of only two clubs to do so. |
Agreed.
Great start but way too early to be planning trips to Prem League grounds next season. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 09:04 - Oct 10 with 1609 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Thinking out loud on 08:59 - Oct 10 by xrayspecs |
My view has not changed. That we have had a great start but have come out the right side of games that could have quite easily gone against us. Which is why I do not believe our current ppg is a reliable predictor of how we will finish the season.
Add in getting a head start on teams who were in transition who you would expect (especially those with much bigger budgets than us) to get stronger as the season wears on.
On xG and related stats. I acknowledged that they look good but that is not the same as accepting them. I posted earlier that they can be flawed. Plymouth being a good example of a side last season who performed better than their xG for a whole season. |
Citing Plymouth doesn't help your argument given they finished top! | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Thinking out loud on 09:05 - Oct 10 with 1607 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Thinking out loud on 09:03 - Oct 10 by xrayspecs |
Agreed.
Great start but way too early to be planning trips to Prem League grounds next season. |
Literally no-one is. | |
| Trust the process. Trust Phil. |
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| Thinking out loud on 09:16 - Oct 10 with 1602 views | dirtyboy |
Top 6.
I just want to finish in the top 6.
I'd have taken it if offered before the season started and i'm not daft enough to know that freak injuries can happen, things outside of your control occur and we're not immune to any of that.
What I do believe, is that's we can see our players are good enough, are organised, can score goals and do generally look like we'll win more than we will lose.
That gives me enough hope every time I go to watch that I can enjoy the football, relax to a large extent and have a little bit of optimism, rather than a decade + of just plain hope. |  | | |
| Thinking out loud on 09:21 - Oct 10 with 1592 views | BiGDonnie |
| Thinking out loud on 08:59 - Oct 10 by xrayspecs |
My view has not changed. That we have had a great start but have come out the right side of games that could have quite easily gone against us. Which is why I do not believe our current ppg is a reliable predictor of how we will finish the season.
Add in getting a head start on teams who were in transition who you would expect (especially those with much bigger budgets than us) to get stronger as the season wears on.
On xG and related stats. I acknowledged that they look good but that is not the same as accepting them. I posted earlier that they can be flawed. Plymouth being a good example of a side last season who performed better than their xG for a whole season. |
We've not had a head start. | |
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| Thinking out loud on 09:26 - Oct 10 with 1588 views | Churchman |
| Thinking out loud on 09:03 - Oct 10 by xrayspecs |
Agreed.
Great start but way too early to be planning trips to Prem League grounds next season. |
As Flash says, nobody is planning trips to Prem League Grounds next season. Neither should Leicester supporters. They look the strongest team, but at a lower level, Wednesday were nailed on Champions or min top two in Feb in L1 and look what happened to them. There are no guarantees for anyone.
For Leicester, Saints and Leeds, just because they are paying a lot for their players doesn’t make them good teams. They might turn out to be, but they were relegated for a reason. They were cr@p.
Yes, a long way to go. We may fade, we may not. But there’s nothing wrong with enjoying the moment and I just don’t see the rationale behind being overly negative.
My worry was just how competitive we might be. That’s been kicked into touch. |  | | |
| Thinking out loud on 09:41 - Oct 10 with 1570 views | Guthrum |
| Thinking out loud on 00:48 - Oct 10 by Vegtablue |
Playing devil's advocate briefly:
In recent seasons,
Burnley had 20 points after 11 games and finished with 101.
Fulham had 20 and finished with 90.
Norwich had 21 and finished with 97.
Watford had 21 and finished with 91.
Norwich had 18 and finished with 94.
From what I've seen and read of Leeds so far, I don't think we can rule them out of finishing in that company. They're on 19 points now, which is a respectable platform from which to pass the milestone of 90 points. Two sides commonly pass 90 in a Championship season, after all (four times in the past seven), and the starts we and Leicester have enjoyed are freak occurrences.
Candidly, the signs are already pointing to another anomalous season. Arguably L1 was Plymouth's doing, as much as our comeback was remarkable. This time we're unquestionably the whopper anomaly, playing as though four were relegated from the Prem last season, and we've not received enough indication from other promotion candidates that they are going to fall short of typical performances. Leicester are clearly whoppers as well but for less complimentary reasons; they were relegated with the most expensively assembled side of all time and are now in prime position to break records. If we do reach 90, which would be a mind-blowing achievement even from here, I'm not confident we would be one of only two clubs to do so. |
Tho when Burnley were on 18 points after 11 games, they were six behind the leaders, compared with Leeds being 11 points behind the Leicester now (and 9 behind us). A significant difference.
Moreover, ours and Leicester's starts are no more freakish than Burnley's run between the 8th October and 11th Feb, one loss and one draw from 18 games. But that was enough to win them the division. Outside of that period they were drawing or losing half their games.
Leeds would have to put together a comparable run, combined with the top two falling away significantly. Barring an injury blizzard or extraordinary circumstances, I can't see Leicester staggering that much, nor any signs that we are about to. Leeds have so far only beaten one team currently in above 14th place (and that was a mad 10 minutes in which we helped them to three goals). | |
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| Thinking out loud on 09:58 - Oct 10 with 1553 views | Vegtablue |
| Thinking out loud on 08:39 - Oct 10 by Herbivore |
Your assumption it's going to be an anomalous season is based on predicting Leeds to improve from where they are though. Currently, they aren't on to achieve 90 points and I've not seen a lot of evidence to suggest they are rapidly improving to the point they are going to average over 2 points per game from here on in. They've had narrow one goal wins at home to bottom half Bristol City and relegation candidates QPR, before which they lost to a Saints side who had been on a pretty poor run themselves, shipping goals for fun at St Mary's. Before that it was a draw with Hull, who we handled easily in the end, and a win over a struggling Watford. On paper they look decent enough but on the pitch they look very hit and miss so I wouldn't confidently predict them going on a storming run over the remaining 35 games. The anomalies at the moment are us and Leicester, producing something like two of the best five Championship starts ever in the same year. The teams below us are about on par with what you'd expect. |
No assumptions in that post Herbie; always best to avoid those where possible. I believe it's foolhardy to write off the chasing pack this early, however, particularly when two teams reaching 90 points has become common lately. With the exception of Preston, those behind us were all predicted to be promotion candidates and their current totals are in the same region where previous sides have pushed on. It isn't safe to assume no team below us will emulate what has happened in previous years IMO. Obviously it's also far from certain anyone will.
Leeds have currently conceded the least shots on target, the second least dangerous opportunities and the second least goals. They've created the third most shots, fourth most on target and third most dangerous opportunities. Their squad is excellent on paper and they're a whisker in front of us in +/- shots on target, putting them top in this niche but perhaps revealing statistic. We've been quite a bit more creative so far and they've been quite a bit more stingy.
The reason I highlight us as an oddity is that, while two teams have reached 90 points in four of the previous seven seasons, none of them have been the newly promoted side from League One. Also, as mentioned previously, none of these 90+ teams in recent years have needed the springboard that we've given ourselves. I believe they were mostly between 18-22 points after 11 games. It's why in this season more than ever, assuming we and Leicester are the only 90+ers-in-waiting feels unsafe. Leeds and co. have lost ground on us but they haven't lost much or any ground on the schedule of historic 90+ teams, have they?
My own opinion is that we're more likely to finish in the top two than any of the sides below us. I quietly believe we'll do it but I don't think we're close to an unassailable gap at this stage. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 10:04 - Oct 10 with 1549 views | Dyland |
| Thinking out loud on 09:41 - Oct 10 by Guthrum |
Tho when Burnley were on 18 points after 11 games, they were six behind the leaders, compared with Leeds being 11 points behind the Leicester now (and 9 behind us). A significant difference.
Moreover, ours and Leicester's starts are no more freakish than Burnley's run between the 8th October and 11th Feb, one loss and one draw from 18 games. But that was enough to win them the division. Outside of that period they were drawing or losing half their games.
Leeds would have to put together a comparable run, combined with the top two falling away significantly. Barring an injury blizzard or extraordinary circumstances, I can't see Leicester staggering that much, nor any signs that we are about to. Leeds have so far only beaten one team currently in above 14th place (and that was a mad 10 minutes in which we helped them to three goals). |
One loss and one draw from 18 is ridiculous.
Looking at our fixtures to take us to 18 which is end of November... it would be absurd, bizarre, surreal, to win all of them. Possible? Sure, but you'd need serious medication if you planned on betting anything serious on that.
I think Speccer's underlying point is a very sound one... one game at a time, stay humble. | |
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| I think everyone on this thread is actually agreeing on 10:10 - Oct 10 with 1536 views | Dyland |
| Thinking out loud on 09:58 - Oct 10 by Vegtablue |
No assumptions in that post Herbie; always best to avoid those where possible. I believe it's foolhardy to write off the chasing pack this early, however, particularly when two teams reaching 90 points has become common lately. With the exception of Preston, those behind us were all predicted to be promotion candidates and their current totals are in the same region where previous sides have pushed on. It isn't safe to assume no team below us will emulate what has happened in previous years IMO. Obviously it's also far from certain anyone will.
Leeds have currently conceded the least shots on target, the second least dangerous opportunities and the second least goals. They've created the third most shots, fourth most on target and third most dangerous opportunities. Their squad is excellent on paper and they're a whisker in front of us in +/- shots on target, putting them top in this niche but perhaps revealing statistic. We've been quite a bit more creative so far and they've been quite a bit more stingy.
The reason I highlight us as an oddity is that, while two teams have reached 90 points in four of the previous seven seasons, none of them have been the newly promoted side from League One. Also, as mentioned previously, none of these 90+ teams in recent years have needed the springboard that we've given ourselves. I believe they were mostly between 18-22 points after 11 games. It's why in this season more than ever, assuming we and Leicester are the only 90+ers-in-waiting feels unsafe. Leeds and co. have lost ground on us but they haven't lost much or any ground on the schedule of historic 90+ teams, have they?
My own opinion is that we're more likely to finish in the top two than any of the sides below us. I quietly believe we'll do it but I don't think we're close to an unassailable gap at this stage. |
:) | |
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| Thinking out loud on 10:11 - Oct 10 with 1536 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Thinking out loud on 22:48 - Oct 9 by MJallday |
My view is that 88 points will be enough to get us promised based on the last few seasons tables
That means we have 35 games to get 60 points. 1.71 average
We’re at 2.24. So im optimistic |
This is the key point - we don't need to maintain our current form. We are currently on for 117 points, which is frankly silly!
If we have bang average mid table form for the next 35 games we are going to land somewhere around 72-75 points which will likely be enough for the play offs. If we have play off form we are going to be around 86-90 points which will have us competing strongly for/in the top 2.
I find the assertion we are going to drop off strange when we have so many players and a team ethic/spirit that seems to get stronger by the week. Do we seriously see Davis, Williams, Clarke, Woolfy, Broadhead, Chaplin, Hirst, Scarlett (who we have barely seen but is one of the most highly rated young forwards in the country) getting worse as the season goes on? They are going to improve. We will obviously improve the squad in January too. And we have the best manager in the league.
We won't finish on 117 points but there is absolutely no way for me that this team drops off to the extent we don't hit 85+ points. You can bookmark this. | | | |
| Stop that right now Derek! on 10:13 - Oct 10 with 1533 views | Dyland |
| Thinking out loud on 10:11 - Oct 10 by tractorboy1978 |
This is the key point - we don't need to maintain our current form. We are currently on for 117 points, which is frankly silly!
If we have bang average mid table form for the next 35 games we are going to land somewhere around 72-75 points which will likely be enough for the play offs. If we have play off form we are going to be around 86-90 points which will have us competing strongly for/in the top 2.
I find the assertion we are going to drop off strange when we have so many players and a team ethic/spirit that seems to get stronger by the week. Do we seriously see Davis, Williams, Clarke, Woolfy, Broadhead, Chaplin, Hirst, Scarlett (who we have barely seen but is one of the most highly rated young forwards in the country) getting worse as the season goes on? They are going to improve. We will obviously improve the squad in January too. And we have the best manager in the league.
We won't finish on 117 points but there is absolutely no way for me that this team drops off to the extent we don't hit 85+ points. You can bookmark this. |
FFS! | |
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| Thinking out loud on 10:14 - Oct 10 with 1533 views | Vegtablue |
| Thinking out loud on 09:41 - Oct 10 by Guthrum |
Tho when Burnley were on 18 points after 11 games, they were six behind the leaders, compared with Leeds being 11 points behind the Leicester now (and 9 behind us). A significant difference.
Moreover, ours and Leicester's starts are no more freakish than Burnley's run between the 8th October and 11th Feb, one loss and one draw from 18 games. But that was enough to win them the division. Outside of that period they were drawing or losing half their games.
Leeds would have to put together a comparable run, combined with the top two falling away significantly. Barring an injury blizzard or extraordinary circumstances, I can't see Leicester staggering that much, nor any signs that we are about to. Leeds have so far only beaten one team currently in above 14th place (and that was a mad 10 minutes in which we helped them to three goals). |
I think people are misunderstanding my point. We're the extra team in the race that wouldn't normally be there, is what I'm saying. And that isn't to say we shouldn't be there or it wasn't predicted we could be there.
Analogously, if Bernardo Silva were suddenly eligible to play for England, this would create more pressure over selection but it wouldn't reduce the quality of those that were already available. Making the assumption that only two sides will break 90 points this year is dangerous, given Leeds and co. haven't made bad starts based upon historic averages and we are the wildcard extra in the field. Our presence atypically improves the quality of this division, possibly more so than any year in the last decade.
I'm very confident Leicester will continue as they're doing. They are incredibly dominant in all areas and are arguably a mid-table PL side in the Championship. I think they'd finish in front of Burnley with games to spare if they were afforded the opportunity. I quietly believe we will do it but there are more unknowns with us, clearly IMO. We have 50% of the ball and overwhelm sides with a high intensity, brilliant style. Instinctively this make us more susceptible to the attritional nature of the league, as we have less control of the ball than other teams at or near the top. | | | |
| Thinking out loud on 10:23 - Oct 10 with 1518 views | BiGDonnie |
| Thinking out loud on 10:11 - Oct 10 by tractorboy1978 |
This is the key point - we don't need to maintain our current form. We are currently on for 117 points, which is frankly silly!
If we have bang average mid table form for the next 35 games we are going to land somewhere around 72-75 points which will likely be enough for the play offs. If we have play off form we are going to be around 86-90 points which will have us competing strongly for/in the top 2.
I find the assertion we are going to drop off strange when we have so many players and a team ethic/spirit that seems to get stronger by the week. Do we seriously see Davis, Williams, Clarke, Woolfy, Broadhead, Chaplin, Hirst, Scarlett (who we have barely seen but is one of the most highly rated young forwards in the country) getting worse as the season goes on? They are going to improve. We will obviously improve the squad in January too. And we have the best manager in the league.
We won't finish on 117 points but there is absolutely no way for me that this team drops off to the extent we don't hit 85+ points. You can bookmark this. |
This is the kinda post I'm here for. | |
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| I think everyone on this thread is actually agreeing on 10:27 - Oct 10 with 1510 views | Vegtablue |
| I think everyone on this thread is actually agreeing on 10:10 - Oct 10 by Dyland |
:) |
Yes I acknowledge I've laboured my points Dyllers but that's my M.O. in fairness to me. | | | |
| Twas in no way a criticism ba on 10:36 - Oct 10 with 1501 views | Dyland |
| I think everyone on this thread is actually agreeing on 10:27 - Oct 10 by Vegtablue |
Yes I acknowledge I've laboured my points Dyllers but that's my M.O. in fairness to me. |
Also some good data stuff in amongst the general love-in innit. | |
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