| Over to you Jeremy on 17:11 - Jan 30 with 2657 views | balcombeblue |
Why would he? The IMF get absolutely everything wrong |  | |  |
| Over to you Jeremy on 17:39 - Jan 30 with 2570 views | BlueBadger |
| Over to you Jeremy on 17:11 - Jan 30 by balcombeblue |
Why would he? The IMF get absolutely everything wrong |
What did they get wrong about, say, Brexit? |  |
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| Over to you Jeremy on 17:46 - Jan 30 with 2554 views | J2BLUE |
Of course he won't listen. It would be in the best interests of the country to not give tax cuts and invest in the NHS and the army. They will cut taxes though in a desperate election bribe and also because it will give Labour less money to work with. |  |
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| Over to you Jeremy on 17:49 - Jan 30 with 2545 views | MattinLondon |
| Over to you Jeremy on 17:39 - Jan 30 by BlueBadger |
What did they get wrong about, say, Brexit? |
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| Over to you Jeremy on 17:51 - Jan 30 with 2533 views | balcombeblue |
| Over to you Jeremy on 17:39 - Jan 30 by BlueBadger |
What did they get wrong about, say, Brexit? |
What did it get right? | | | |
| Over to you Jeremy on 17:55 - Jan 30 with 2503 views | BlueBadger |
| Over to you Jeremy on 17:51 - Jan 30 by balcombeblue |
What did it get right? |
Well, they said Brexit would be a long term, unfolding clusterf**k.
And here we are, in a long term unfolding clusterf**k.
But, I'm guessing you're someone who's Had Enough Of Experts with Very Real Concerns. | |
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| Over to you Jeremy on 19:01 - Jan 30 with 2316 views | Oldsmoker |
An idiot once said "I think we've had enough of experts".
Things didn't go well after that and that idiot is still an idiot.
... and yet here we are... again. |  |
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| Over to you Jeremy on 19:11 - Jan 30 with 2288 views | GlasgowBlue |
I thought we were purely addressing the IMF predictions? |  |
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| Over to you Jeremy on 20:39 - Jan 30 with 2099 views | Lord_Lucan |
WHO / IMF
It’s almost as if these organisations are magnets for professional, know all know nothing, silly big boys |  |
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| Over to you Jeremy on 20:43 - Jan 30 with 2082 views | WicklowBlue |
I don't disagree with the hardship inflicted by the IMF, but equally we could not let the main pillar banks to fail. That would have rendered our government bonds to scrap, Ireland would not have been able to borrow and risked contagion across the EU.
Ireland was far from the worst, look at Greece and ATMs running out of cash.
The issue was the gambling and lack of oversight by regulators on cowboys such as Quinn, Fingleton, Fitzpatrick and Drumm who should have been stripped of all assets and lengthy prison sentences.
Anyhow back to the UK... |  | | |
| Over to you Jeremy on 21:00 - Jan 30 with 2045 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
"Everything"
From the article you link: "dire warnings of rising protectionist trade measures and anti-elites backlash ring true" in the very first line. |  |
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| Over to you Jeremy on 21:50 - Jan 30 with 1929 views | DJR |
It was just about the IMF, and definitely shocking what was done to Ireland. And especially Greece. [Post edited 30 Jan 2024 21:51]
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| Over to you Jeremy on 21:56 - Jan 30 with 1899 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Over to you Jeremy on 21:00 - Jan 30 by Nthsuffolkblue |
"Everything"
From the article you link: "dire warnings of rising protectionist trade measures and anti-elites backlash ring true" in the very first line. |
Don't dare criticise the hallowed project. |  |
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| Over to you Jeremy on 07:49 - Jan 31 with 1713 views | balcombeblue |
| Over to you Jeremy on 17:55 - Jan 30 by BlueBadger |
Well, they said Brexit would be a long term, unfolding clusterf**k.
And here we are, in a long term unfolding clusterf**k.
But, I'm guessing you're someone who's Had Enough Of Experts with Very Real Concerns. |
We were talking about IMF predictions rather than Brexit (I thought). Do you know how I voted?
They have a habit of talking down the UK economy. I have respect for experts, but it's not always straightforward to separate the economic from the political message.
Always best to leave out the personal when trying to have a discussion? | | | |
| Over to you Jeremy on 08:04 - Jan 31 with 1684 views | DJR |
| Over to you Jeremy on 07:49 - Jan 31 by balcombeblue |
We were talking about IMF predictions rather than Brexit (I thought). Do you know how I voted?
They have a habit of talking down the UK economy. I have respect for experts, but it's not always straightforward to separate the economic from the political message.
Always best to leave out the personal when trying to have a discussion? |
The article I linked in an earlier post contained the following.
Economics is known as the dismal science. But for the IMF’s critics, this egregious forecasting error — upon which so much policy advice was built — is more than a crime. It’s a mistake.
The fact is that economics is much more of an art than a science. Econometricians can factor in x amount of data into a model to show outcome y. Like actors, who are only as good as their scripts, economists are only as good as the data they input.
Blanchard’s paper shows that the OECD, the EU and the Economist Intelligence Unit all got their forecasts wrong. The IMF was just – well – even less accurate.
But that merely reinforces the point that economics is an art. But a black art, rather than a bad art.
EDIT: In any event, I don't think one has to be economist to know that cutting taxes at this time is not the right thing to do with public services in such a parlous state, and with a further £18 billion in cuts in the pipeline as a result of the tax cuts announced in November. [Post edited 31 Jan 2024 8:30]
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| Over to you Jeremy on 08:12 - Jan 31 with 1652 views | balcombeblue |
| Over to you Jeremy on 08:04 - Jan 31 by DJR |
The article I linked in an earlier post contained the following.
Economics is known as the dismal science. But for the IMF’s critics, this egregious forecasting error — upon which so much policy advice was built — is more than a crime. It’s a mistake.
The fact is that economics is much more of an art than a science. Econometricians can factor in x amount of data into a model to show outcome y. Like actors, who are only as good as their scripts, economists are only as good as the data they input.
Blanchard’s paper shows that the OECD, the EU and the Economist Intelligence Unit all got their forecasts wrong. The IMF was just – well – even less accurate.
But that merely reinforces the point that economics is an art. But a black art, rather than a bad art.
EDIT: In any event, I don't think one has to be economist to know that cutting taxes at this time is not the right thing to do with public services in such a parlous state, and with a further £18 billion in cuts in the pipeline as a result of the tax cuts announced in November. [Post edited 31 Jan 2024 8:30]
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Couldn't agree more.
Of course crucially, modelling multiple variables, their relative interaction and then explaining the output are very difficult. We saw this with it's full limitations during the pandemic. Then trying to work out causation from correlation is even harder.
Add on top of that a layer of political bias and it gets even worse.
I'm an economist! definitely a dismal science...... | | | |
| Over to you Jeremy on 08:28 - Jan 31 with 1613 views | DJR |
| Over to you Jeremy on 08:12 - Jan 31 by balcombeblue |
Couldn't agree more.
Of course crucially, modelling multiple variables, their relative interaction and then explaining the output are very difficult. We saw this with it's full limitations during the pandemic. Then trying to work out causation from correlation is even harder.
Add on top of that a layer of political bias and it gets even worse.
I'm an economist! definitely a dismal science...... |
Before I read your post, I had thought of adding an apology to my post to any economists out there, so glad to see by your self-deprecating post that you are not too upset. | | | |
| Over to you Jeremy on 08:31 - Jan 31 with 1587 views | chicoazul |
On a similar note the EU have a secret plan to throw millions of Hungarians into destitution because they don’t like how they are running things. The more time goes by the happier I am we are no longer part of that awful institution. |  |
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| Over to you Jeremy on 08:33 - Jan 31 with 1569 views | DanTheMan |
| Over to you Jeremy on 08:31 - Jan 31 by chicoazul |
On a similar note the EU have a secret plan to throw millions of Hungarians into destitution because they don’t like how they are running things. The more time goes by the happier I am we are no longer part of that awful institution. |
I thought that plan was thought up because they are continuously blocking aid to Ukraine? |  |
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| Over to you Jeremy on 09:00 - Jan 31 with 1506 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Over to you Jeremy on 08:33 - Jan 31 by DanTheMan |
I thought that plan was thought up because they are continuously blocking aid to Ukraine? |
And because Orban is attacking democratic institutions, freedom of the press, blocking sanctions on Russia, and pushing anti lgbt law.
Those oppressive b@stands in Brussels! | | | |
| Over to you Jeremy on 13:53 - Jan 31 with 1392 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| Over to you Jeremy on 08:31 - Jan 31 by chicoazul |
On a similar note the EU have a secret plan to throw millions of Hungarians into destitution because they don’t like how they are running things. The more time goes by the happier I am we are no longer part of that awful institution. |
Disgusting behaviour by the EU.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/12/13/brussels-releases-10-billion-in-fr
BTW How are you sending that weekly saving of £350 million? |  | | |
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