| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:29 - Nov 14 with 770 views | LutherBlissett |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:21 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
Sorry, to be clear though;
a) Nobody is suggesting invest solely in tech and being over concentrated.
b) A short sharp shock is not the same as being a bubble that bursts. Arguably we've had a short sharp shock in the last few weeks with META and others down -20% from their high. |
Yes, let's be clear.
Short, sharp shocks of that nature are symptomatic of bubbles. AI, and investment in AI, is now so pervasive that even a 30% contraction could cause issues that are systemic.
I fear that any loss in confidence in the few hyperscalers could cause a huge ripple wave in the market. You seem to disagree. |  | |  |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:29 - Nov 14 with 770 views | leitrimblue |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:25 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
But imagine you're old and smelly and in a home - and instead of some disinterested youngster coming round to give you your pills and wipe your bottom - you get a humanoid robot that looks like Ursula Andress. |
Will this robot be prepared to do 'extras'?
Asking for a friend.. |  | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:30 - Nov 14 with 766 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:29 - Nov 14 by leitrimblue |
Will this robot be prepared to do 'extras'?
Asking for a friend.. |
The ones manufactured in the far east, almost certainly. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:31 - Nov 14 with 761 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 10:25 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
These sorts of jibes have come my way on here ever since I mentioned my profession. Which I'm not afraid to do, I think it's quite useful for people to know your level of experience when assessing views. But moreover, all a bit childish no? And unfortunately, says quite a lot about you as opposed to me.
I think if you met me in real life you'd be quite shocked about who I am, my background, the various causes I'm quite passionate in supporting and my political views.
Why don't we just accept that we all want to solve the same issue, a higher standard of living for everyone but that your way of solving it is different to mine? |
I have no idea what your profession is but you did make some claims without any evidence so I helpfully filled in the gaps. |  |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:38 - Nov 14 with 716 views | DanTheMan |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:00 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
I'm talking about the earnings of the hyperscalers or mag 7 as they were previously known who are the "application" layer. And they are generating revenues already and seeing the start of ROI on their AI spend.
Were you this sceptical of the billions being ploughed into cloud 10+ years ago?
Re OpenAI - who knows, it's a private company. And it's entirely possible they become the myspace of their time. My sentiment is really about the broader benefits and implications of AI in wider society and productivity. [Post edited 14 Nov 13:02]
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Those are different in my mind but they (excluding maybe Apple) will be liable to a correction if / when the AI bubble pops, or what I consider a bubble with how incestous it all is.
I wasn't as sceptical of the cloud as it has utility. The original cloud from Amazon was there because they already had the infrastructure sitting there doing nothing and decided to wrap it with some software tooling to sell it to others. That makes perfect sense as a product when everyone hated running their own infrastructure.
This is not that. It's not even the dotcom boom, at least with that someone could obviously see the value in being able to buy things online or whatever.
This is one particular product (AI chat bots) being touted as the solution to absolutely everything when they barely function on anything complicated.
And all of people selling "AI" are just using either OpenAI or maybe Anthropic but they are tiny compared to OpenAI. If OpenAI fecks up, the entire thing collapses. |  |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:48 - Nov 14 with 680 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:38 - Nov 14 by DanTheMan |
Those are different in my mind but they (excluding maybe Apple) will be liable to a correction if / when the AI bubble pops, or what I consider a bubble with how incestous it all is.
I wasn't as sceptical of the cloud as it has utility. The original cloud from Amazon was there because they already had the infrastructure sitting there doing nothing and decided to wrap it with some software tooling to sell it to others. That makes perfect sense as a product when everyone hated running their own infrastructure.
This is not that. It's not even the dotcom boom, at least with that someone could obviously see the value in being able to buy things online or whatever.
This is one particular product (AI chat bots) being touted as the solution to absolutely everything when they barely function on anything complicated.
And all of people selling "AI" are just using either OpenAI or maybe Anthropic but they are tiny compared to OpenAI. If OpenAI fecks up, the entire thing collapses. |
Other than the financing, it's not particularly incestuous I would argue - and again, the financing is being done from free cash flow not leverage.
And given that hiring has slowed significantly in many areas of knowledge work, I would say that clearly there is a benefit and a moteziable product there - albeit in it's infancy.
And to the whole context of my earlier point and the wider discussion - if you have an ageing population, low birth rates and a country that (wrongly imo) seems to want considerably less immigration going forward - being able to do more/or even the same with less people is probably going to be quite beneficial. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:49 - Nov 14 with 675 views | mellowblue |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 10:09 - Nov 14 by BanksterDebtSlave |
An interesting read on Singapore....
https://insidestory.org.au/the-singapore-grip/
For Singapore, the risk of a falling population is exacerbated by a dirty little secret: the city hosts a vast underclass of “non-resident” workers on temporary visas. Some are in well-paid jobs (and resented by locals for that), but many others do dangerous or low-status jobs as construction labourers, factory hands and domestic servants.
There are about 1.5 million of them among Singapore’s 5.5 million people, more than a quarter of the population. But that was all I could find about them in the statistics. These workers reside in Singapore — the labouring men and factory workers often in crowded dormitories that have become an ideal environment for spreading Covid-19 — but they have no path to permanent residency and are expected to return to their home country when the job ends. |
Singapore is very much a mini-China. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 14:26 - Nov 14 with 624 views | J2BLUE |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 10:06 - Nov 14 by SitfcB |
Yeah, stop the #woke.
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I just bought a gingerbread penguin...that's ok right? |  |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 14:44 - Nov 14 with 594 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:29 - Nov 14 by LutherBlissett |
Yes, let's be clear.
Short, sharp shocks of that nature are symptomatic of bubbles. AI, and investment in AI, is now so pervasive that even a 30% contraction could cause issues that are systemic.
I fear that any loss in confidence in the few hyperscalers could cause a huge ripple wave in the market. You seem to disagree. |
I mean yeah - tech is 28% of the S&P atm so if it has a wobble, like it did in April after "liberation" day, then the index as a whole will also fall.
You equated it to 2008 earlier though which was basically the entire financial system collapsing and people worried it would be the Weimar republic.
So with respect - in the space of an hour you've gone from 2008 systemic collapse, to a bubble to we might have a "short sharp shock" (which happens almost every year in stock markets). | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 14:47 - Nov 14 with 585 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:27 - Nov 14 by Herbivore |
Lol at the idea we'll be able to fund social care by the time I reach old age. |
Missed this earlier but isn't this rather the point?
If you can't afford to fund things or the have population or labour market growth to support certain key areas then having innovation to enhance productivity instead of humans will be important.
I'm not joking about humanoids btw (I did hear they'd look more like Honor Blackman than dear old Ursula though).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62jxdxng7do | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:00 - Nov 14 with 560 views | leitrimblue |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 14:47 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
Missed this earlier but isn't this rather the point?
If you can't afford to fund things or the have population or labour market growth to support certain key areas then having innovation to enhance productivity instead of humans will be important.
I'm not joking about humanoids btw (I did hear they'd look more like Honor Blackman than dear old Ursula though).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62jxdxng7do |
Think I've seen this movie. Doesn't it not end well for humankind?
Now I've just seen the head on my 'nurse' my um friend may no longer be requiring extras  | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:01 - Nov 14 with 557 views | LutherBlissett |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 14:44 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
I mean yeah - tech is 28% of the S&P atm so if it has a wobble, like it did in April after "liberation" day, then the index as a whole will also fall.
You equated it to 2008 earlier though which was basically the entire financial system collapsing and people worried it would be the Weimar republic.
So with respect - in the space of an hour you've gone from 2008 systemic collapse, to a bubble to we might have a "short sharp shock" (which happens almost every year in stock markets). |
My point is that there is systemic risk within an overly concentrated sector.
I brought up 2008 to illustrate the scale of potential impact, not that it would play out in the same way - how could it.
Everyone knows big corrections happen all the time. That's a given. The only difference is you seem to think that one here wouldn't have systemic consequences and I believe it could. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:06 - Nov 14 with 538 views | LutherBlissett |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:30 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
The ones manufactured in the far east, almost certainly. |
Nice bit of the old xenophobic stereotyping about Asian women there, nice one.
Are there any Ukrainian refugee sex bots I can fcuk? | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:07 - Nov 14 with 537 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:00 - Nov 14 by leitrimblue |
Think I've seen this movie. Doesn't it not end well for humankind?
Now I've just seen the head on my 'nurse' my um friend may no longer be requiring extras |
This is just v1 though Leitrim.
I'm assuming v2 and v3 will look much more like Ms Galore and Ms Ryder, surely? | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:09 - Nov 14 with 527 views | nrb1985 |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:06 - Nov 14 by LutherBlissett |
Nice bit of the old xenophobic stereotyping about Asian women there, nice one.
Are there any Ukrainian refugee sex bots I can fcuk? |
It was more that things manufactured in the far east generally conform to much lower standards than the things we make in the west.
The fact your mind went where it did though is quite telling.
What's this about Ukranian women? The Ukranians I've worked with in the past are lovely. What are you implying about women from eastern europe? | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:10 - Nov 14 with 526 views | jas0999 |
There was serious opposition to the rise from a lot of folk within the Labour Party. Starmer, who already isn’t popular with many in the party, would have faced a potential leadership challenge. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:28 - Nov 14 with 490 views | StokieBlue |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 11:58 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
If you have another 2008 then yeah, correlations will go to 1 so to speak and everything, even gold will likely tank.
What we're talking about is a healthy correction, which is quite normal, like 2022. Some markets faired far better then than others (UK was actually +3% for the year, US -18%).
People are always looking for the next 2008, which may well come but it'll most likely be because of a exogenous shock nobody saw coming - like covid. |
Isn't it fairly easy to make an argument that the correlation within the sector is already approaching 1? The nature of the deals being done between the companies are fairly circular with funding being passed around more than once increasing the leverage and correlated risk.
If you look at your energy recommendations that implies cross sector correlation is already increasing and the longer it goes on the greater that will become.
There is certainly a risk of something much larger than a "correction" occuring.
SB |  | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:29 - Nov 14 with 489 views | OldFart71 |
Apparently, although given the never clear information we get from government, the so called black hole is 20 billion. Given that they need headroom on top of that we can possibly assume the total around 30 billion.
With now no increase in income tax that money needs to come from elsewhere.
If for instance the government freeze or reduce personal allowance that would be a tax increase that's just worded in a different way.
It would also affect lower paid workers and pensioners that get a few pounds above the current £12,570.
Not to my mind a very sensible thing to do given this government proclaims it's for working people.
As an individual if you are in debt the last thing to do is to keep spending even more and whilst personal spending is a bit different to governmental ways it worries me that we keep being told things are improving when it's obvious they are not. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:32 - Nov 14 with 480 views | LutherBlissett |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:09 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
It was more that things manufactured in the far east generally conform to much lower standards than the things we make in the west.
The fact your mind went where it did though is quite telling.
What's this about Ukranian women? The Ukranians I've worked with in the past are lovely. What are you implying about women from eastern europe? |
Deflectionary squit. You know full well what you were implying, but your response shows you've jacobs the size of Maltesers. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:36 - Nov 14 with 464 views | mellowblue |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 15:09 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
It was more that things manufactured in the far east generally conform to much lower standards than the things we make in the west.
The fact your mind went where it did though is quite telling.
What's this about Ukranian women? The Ukranians I've worked with in the past are lovely. What are you implying about women from eastern europe? |
The generalisation about the Far East only goes so far. Generally things there are made to undercut the home markets they are exporting too. So quality can be a bit off. But equally they can produce stuff to very high standards, e.g Apple iphones and the model railway ready to run models are by and large from China and are really a step up in quality from when they were UK manufactured. Of courses modern computer aided design and manufacture methods have evolved and improved over time. | | | |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 16:27 - Nov 14 with 430 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 09:28 - Nov 14 by The_Major |
Utterly pathetic.
Like Sitters said, most people aren't going to begrudge paying a little more extra to help finance things better for the whole - to put it in Reform speak, it's the patriotic thing to do. I see there's a group of very wealthy people (including the Greggs CEO) touring agreeing with this - saying that people in their wealth bracket should pay more as they have the broadest shoulders.
Problem is with that is that you get snarks saying "Well, you can pay voluntairly, you know" to which my answer is simple - How do you know they haven't?
I don't think I've ever been more disappointed in a government. They're absolutely gutless. They've got an eye spinning majority in the HoC - these are not the days of the Coalition, or the Wilson/Callaghan governments staggering on for years with a single figure majority.
You've got that majority - use it. Stop basing your decisions on the fear that you don't want to upset a group of people who aren't going to vote for you even if you give the entire population £1m each, lower the state pension age to 43, free public transport across the board or ensure that everyone has invicible immortality.
Stop sitting there worrying what how the Daily Mail is going to react. Who cares? The Daily Mail is a newspaper owned by a billionaire that lives in France, doesn't pay UK tax, and had a grandfather that used the newspaper to support the Nazis, and stayed as a guest of Hitler in 1937! It's a disgusting putrid vessel that constantly sneers at this country and is downright treacherous.
Stop sitting there worrying about how Farage is going to react. Who cares? The frog faced grifting Lord Haw Haw has shown time and again how much he despises this country, and the contempt he has for the population. Like that other monumental prick Johnson, he couldn't give a damn about you whether you support him or not. The absolute fiasco going on in Kent, Cornwall, and Lancashire at the moment only serves as a warning as to what would happen if he got into power. We can't say we haven't been warned.
For the love of God, be bold, make changes that will have a real impact on people's lives. Highlight the good that immigration brings to this country. Point out to people that we NEED controlled immigration due to a falling birth rate since 1960, otherwise the care sector and the NHS will collapse, and state pension age will go up to about 75 because there won't be so many people paying in.
Launch Leveson II, to tackle the downright lies and falsehoods that appear in the press. Stop kowtowing and fawning to the Mango Mussolini every five minutes - tell him to stick his $1bn lawsuit against the BBC and back off now he's got his apology. Point out to those so called patriots backing him over the BBC, that that is not exactly patriotism. Quite the opposite.
Bring in radical measures on a whole host of things that could transform people's lives. Do it now, so that people feel the benefit by the next election. Make it so that any incoming party in 2029 if it's not Labour would dare not reverse this legislation because it would be political suicide.
Show some goddamned guts. Go on the front foot against the plastic patriots, and call them out for what they are. Stop worrying about whether you'll still be in Downing Street in 2030, and instead make the changes now. Better to look back and say, "Yeah, we lost, but we made a heck of a difference to people's lives" than "Well, we're still here, but have achieved nowt" - ye gods, even that lunatic Truss showed more courage than this during her catastrophic tenure, because that economic policy was what she believed in and had the courage of her convictions to do it.
For fecks sake, buck your ideas up. |
Superb post.
Completely agree. I feel an arrow of love isn’t enough. |  |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 16:41 - Nov 14 with 405 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 13:25 - Nov 14 by nrb1985 |
But imagine you're old and smelly and in a home - and instead of some disinterested youngster coming round to give you your pills and wipe your bottom - you get a humanoid robot that looks like Ursula Andress. |
I wonder how long it will take for someone to realise that you are dead after the robot misfunctioned. |  |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 17:23 - Nov 14 with 353 views | Benters |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 16:27 - Nov 14 by The_Romford_Blue |
Superb post.
Completely agree. I feel an arrow of love isn’t enough. |
‘An arrow of love ‘  |  |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 17:24 - Nov 14 with 349 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 17:23 - Nov 14 by Benters |
‘An arrow of love ‘ |
You deserve one too Benters me old mucker | |
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| Income Tax rise ditched on 17:28 - Nov 14 with 333 views | Benters |
| Income Tax rise ditched on 17:24 - Nov 14 by The_Romford_Blue |
You deserve one too Benters me old mucker |
Have one in return.
Feel the love Brother Romford. | |
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