| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? 20:49 - Jan 13 with 1148 views | NthQldITFC |
...particularly in regard to Russia?
from https://www.worldometers.info/
Population [GDP]
1. US ~350m [$30t]
2. Western Europe Germany+UK+France+Spain+Italy+Netherlands ~350m [$18tn]
+ another ~70m [maybe $2t] of traditionally 'Western' European nations (i.e. non Soviet bloc)
3. Strong Western Allies - Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ + ~200m [~$10t]
4. Eastern bloc ~180m [?]
5. Russia ~140m [$2t]
6. China ~1,400m [$19t]
7. India ~1,400m [$4t]
I know GDP is a highly flawed metric of anything much, and I know debt and independent nukes aren't considered in this ^, but why, in principle, shouldn't 2. and 3. together be capable of forming an alliance strong enough to at least give 1. 5. and 6. a little more pause for thought? |  |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 20:53 - Jan 13 with 1016 views | redrickstuhaart |
We absolutely can.
The idea that Europe is hopeless is US nonsense narrative.
I wouldnt mess with Poland, let alone the whole block. |  | | |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 20:55 - Jan 13 with 1004 views | WeWereZombies |
What nations are included in the Eastern Bloc ? And where does Turkey fit into this ? Or the World's most populous Muslim nation, Indonesia ? Not to mention that nuclear power Pakistan, and the complex beast that is Brazil. |  |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 21:18 - Jan 13 with 930 views | J2BLUE |
Trump knows a united Europe could stand up to the US which is why he's so anti the EU.
Labour should ask the EU if they would take us back on the terms we had (maybe without some of the grants but broadly) then have a referendum. The world has changed. Our future lies with Europe.
Voting for Brexit was a massive mistake. I deeply regret my vote.
Another thing I would like to see is another 1p on income tax to fund defence. We need to buy drones and equipment and pay the salaries of anyone who would like to join the army. I would much rather pay extra now to get a strong army to deter Russia than face war in the future. |  |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 21:30 - Jan 13 with 892 views | Guthrum |
Lack of homogenity and of common goals.
European countries (and their predecessors) have been commercial and military rivals for so long that it is still hard to put down ancient prejudices and contests.
Within Europe, there is a strong layer of national interest and a desire to keep governance in their own capitals, not giving decisionmaking over to the centralised authority necessary for coordinated policy, planning and action. At best it is a fractious and unruly committee, at worst deliberately trying to undermine things.
Some countries feel stronger affinities with outside powers than towards their European brethren (e.g. the UK with the USA and Hungary with Russia).
Economic inequalities across the region are accentuated by, again, the lack of centralised authorities. Poorer countries have equal say in the EU with rich ones. Not the case in the USA, China or Russia.
Military unification is even more contentious than the economic one. The polite fiction that any of the European countries might be capable of self defence with only their own forces carries a lot of weight.
A herd of 30 cats facing off against a bear, an elephant and a dragon. [Post edited 13 Jan 21:31]
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 21:42 - Jan 13 with 844 views | Kievthegreat |
Some things hurting European armed forces:
1 - Fragmentation
Europe's military development programmes and procurement are deeply fragmented. There are three 4th/4.5th gen fighter programmes and two 6th gen programmes. There are multiple Tank programmes that are developed. Apply all this to literally every system that European countries build, and you have a huge amount of wasted potential.
2- Poor strategic decisions of the past decade
European countries enjoyed the peace dividend, but never reacted to the changing world around them. Post Cold War, there was far less need for maintaining high levels of spending, so it was easy to shift that money into healthcare, social programmes, infrastructure etc... (which is a very good thing when geopolitics allow as it's better for economies and society as a whole). However rather than see the writing on the wall with events like the 2014 invasion of the Donbas, the tough decisions were constantly put back.
3 - Comparative costs
Countries like Russia can produce cheaper than the West. Labour costs are higher in Europe, so your soldiers need higher wages, the people building your weapons need higher wages so your weapons cost more. £1 of spending in Europe with high labour costs and inefficient procurement is worth far less than the equivalent value spent in Russia and China.
Europe could very easily get to the level of Russia. They possibly already have it given the attrition of highly trained soldiers and equipment that Russia has suffered in Ukraine. However if I look at the 3 things I pinpointed, 2&3 are resolvable by just putting in the money (we have so much more than Russia and China is far more remote a threat due to distance), but 1 is frankly unresolvable.
If you want to resolve problem 1, you'd have a unified procurement process. Develop 1 tank programme which can then be produced at volume for all countries, same logic with fighters, ships, submarines, etc... Thing is that's an earth shattering decision which every country will reject out of narrow self interest. Could be done with more collaboration short of a unified procurement process. There is decades of experience showing how hard international consortiums developing things are to keep all parties happy though, and now you want to do it on Steroids. There is so much horse-trading to make sure their country gets enough of the work, or the production to protect native industry that you end up with politicking and massive inefficiencies still. |  | | |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 21:53 - Jan 13 with 806 views | NthQldITFC |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 20:55 - Jan 13 by WeWereZombies |
What nations are included in the Eastern Bloc ? And where does Turkey fit into this ? Or the World's most populous Muslim nation, Indonesia ? Not to mention that nuclear power Pakistan, and the complex beast that is Brazil. |
I know. It was just a very rough and ready ten minute job. I also left out all of Africa and most of Asia. The main point was western Europe, albeit with much higher welfare costs and expected standards of living ought to be able to quite easily get its sh!t together to kick Russia's arse if necessary, albeit we might get nuked in the process.
As others have said, it's the fragmented nature of WE in terms of policy, equipment and command which makes us look weak - can we bite the bullet and put ego and vested interest aside if we need to? In theory yes, in practice... | |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 22:02 - Jan 13 with 764 views | bsw72 |
Not sure I would look at Europe rather NATO excluding the US.
Even without the United States, NATO would be a first-tier military coalition capable of defending Europe and, in a conventional war, likely overmatching Russia through economic scale, industrial depth, and coordinated air and naval power.
The true limitation of a NATO-minus-US force is not so much military capability but the political cohesion and the absence of US-provided strategic enablers, meaning such a force could fight, but escalation would carry catastrophic consequences with no meaningful winner.
Remember that NATO without the US still has 2 nuclear powers (UK and France) but with only 500 warheads vs the 6000 held by Russia still, and the 5200 held by the US. |  | | |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 23:45 - Jan 13 with 628 views | WicklowBlue |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 22:02 - Jan 13 by bsw72 |
Not sure I would look at Europe rather NATO excluding the US.
Even without the United States, NATO would be a first-tier military coalition capable of defending Europe and, in a conventional war, likely overmatching Russia through economic scale, industrial depth, and coordinated air and naval power.
The true limitation of a NATO-minus-US force is not so much military capability but the political cohesion and the absence of US-provided strategic enablers, meaning such a force could fight, but escalation would carry catastrophic consequences with no meaningful winner.
Remember that NATO without the US still has 2 nuclear powers (UK and France) but with only 500 warheads vs the 6000 held by Russia still, and the 5200 held by the US. |
One question on the above I have re. Nukes is really are we at a stalemate whether you have several hundred warheads vs thousands. Ultimately if anyone presses the trigger on 10 let alone a hundred isnt everyone in a no win situation.
From my limited perspective isnt the new battleground in new tech warfare, drones, cyber etc. That is where you can continually weaken or distract the enemy? More of a gradual grinding down, undermining country/state security while influencing politics to move people over to your viewpoint. Much more insidious than just the last person standing element of obliterate your enemy? |  | | |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 00:55 - Jan 14 with 571 views | IPS_wich |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 21:30 - Jan 13 by Guthrum |
Lack of homogenity and of common goals.
European countries (and their predecessors) have been commercial and military rivals for so long that it is still hard to put down ancient prejudices and contests.
Within Europe, there is a strong layer of national interest and a desire to keep governance in their own capitals, not giving decisionmaking over to the centralised authority necessary for coordinated policy, planning and action. At best it is a fractious and unruly committee, at worst deliberately trying to undermine things.
Some countries feel stronger affinities with outside powers than towards their European brethren (e.g. the UK with the USA and Hungary with Russia).
Economic inequalities across the region are accentuated by, again, the lack of centralised authorities. Poorer countries have equal say in the EU with rich ones. Not the case in the USA, China or Russia.
Military unification is even more contentious than the economic one. The polite fiction that any of the European countries might be capable of self defence with only their own forces carries a lot of weight.
A herd of 30 cats facing off against a bear, an elephant and a dragon. [Post edited 13 Jan 21:31]
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To build on your comment.
The unspoken issue is that by any measure, the 'biggest' (and implicitly the most powerful) country within Western Europe is Germany, and the earth will need to spin many more thousand times on its axis (pun intended) before France, UK, Poland, Belgium and Netherlands will accept a united Europe (from a defence perspective) that sees Germany as the major player.
It's one of the reasons NATO is so reliant on the US being part of it and why it will collapse if the US stepped away - as long as the US is involved then Germany are not front and centre. | | | |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 04:05 - Jan 14 with 511 views | Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 21:18 - Jan 13 by J2BLUE |
Trump knows a united Europe could stand up to the US which is why he's so anti the EU.
Labour should ask the EU if they would take us back on the terms we had (maybe without some of the grants but broadly) then have a referendum. The world has changed. Our future lies with Europe.
Voting for Brexit was a massive mistake. I deeply regret my vote.
Another thing I would like to see is another 1p on income tax to fund defence. We need to buy drones and equipment and pay the salaries of anyone who would like to join the army. I would much rather pay extra now to get a strong army to deter Russia than face war in the future. |
Genuine question, why does everyone on here always talk about Europe and the EU as if it’s some kind of centre left united front?
Just ignoring the policies and governments of quite a few of the member states? |  |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 05:43 - Jan 14 with 476 views | Churchman |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 20:53 - Jan 13 by redrickstuhaart |
We absolutely can.
The idea that Europe is hopeless is US nonsense narrative.
I wouldnt mess with Poland, let alone the whole block. |
Polands army is 216k. Air force front line aircraft 7 F35, 35 1970s design F16 Falcons.
Russia army 1.35m which will rise to 1.5m plus 2m in reserve. Russian air force estimates - over 3900 aircraft.
Ukraine’s army is battle hardened and by far the largest in Europe. Once that’s been broken when the surrender is forced, does anyone really think Putin is going to worry about Poland’s capability?
Poland is doing its very best, like the other threatened states. It’s up to spending 5% GDP but if you are Putin you are not going to worry about that or wait. There’s nothing behind Poland. It’s a kind of thin crust.
The Germans are looking to increase their army to 200k and in terms of strike aircraft we are looking at 185 Eurofighters and 85 obsolete Tornados to eventually be replaced by 35 F35As
U.K.? 135 Typhoons of which 25 are off to the scrap heap, if they are not already baked bean cans, and 39 F35B with 47 on order and a further 15 planned by 2033. Shame the F35s can’t operate without American support (like the nuclear ‘deterrent’). The army? We can field the equivalent of one Division, providing somebody can lend us some transport.
It’s a wicked old world and the warnings have been out there for years, but Western Europe has buried its heads in the sand and mugged off America for defence like leeches.
Whilst I loathe trump and his sycophantic henchmen, it’s not hard to see why they are saying ‘no more’. There’s no reason to prop up the west when it can cut a deal with Russia and look to the Americas. |  | | |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 07:55 - Jan 14 with 355 views | redrickstuhaart |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 05:43 - Jan 14 by Churchman |
Polands army is 216k. Air force front line aircraft 7 F35, 35 1970s design F16 Falcons.
Russia army 1.35m which will rise to 1.5m plus 2m in reserve. Russian air force estimates - over 3900 aircraft.
Ukraine’s army is battle hardened and by far the largest in Europe. Once that’s been broken when the surrender is forced, does anyone really think Putin is going to worry about Poland’s capability?
Poland is doing its very best, like the other threatened states. It’s up to spending 5% GDP but if you are Putin you are not going to worry about that or wait. There’s nothing behind Poland. It’s a kind of thin crust.
The Germans are looking to increase their army to 200k and in terms of strike aircraft we are looking at 185 Eurofighters and 85 obsolete Tornados to eventually be replaced by 35 F35As
U.K.? 135 Typhoons of which 25 are off to the scrap heap, if they are not already baked bean cans, and 39 F35B with 47 on order and a further 15 planned by 2033. Shame the F35s can’t operate without American support (like the nuclear ‘deterrent’). The army? We can field the equivalent of one Division, providing somebody can lend us some transport.
It’s a wicked old world and the warnings have been out there for years, but Western Europe has buried its heads in the sand and mugged off America for defence like leeches.
Whilst I loathe trump and his sycophantic henchmen, it’s not hard to see why they are saying ‘no more’. There’s no reason to prop up the west when it can cut a deal with Russia and look to the Americas. |
Russia are at war and imposing forced conscription. Any euro country in such circumstances will grow it's forces significantly.... | | | |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 08:13 - Jan 14 with 333 views | ghostofescobar |
There is a train of thought that the Russian threat to Europe is widely overblown, as they just can’t afford a wider physical war. They have the same GDP as Spain. |  |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 08:26 - Jan 14 with 306 views | bsw72 |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 23:45 - Jan 13 by WicklowBlue |
One question on the above I have re. Nukes is really are we at a stalemate whether you have several hundred warheads vs thousands. Ultimately if anyone presses the trigger on 10 let alone a hundred isnt everyone in a no win situation.
From my limited perspective isnt the new battleground in new tech warfare, drones, cyber etc. That is where you can continually weaken or distract the enemy? More of a gradual grinding down, undermining country/state security while influencing politics to move people over to your viewpoint. Much more insidious than just the last person standing element of obliterate your enemy? |
That’s the point, we are at a stage where there would not be any kind of clear victor like in WW2, it would be that countries are very much ground down though multiple channels to the point that there is manipulation of governments to bring in more suitable leaders pre approved by the aggressor nations. | | | |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 08:27 - Jan 14 with 302 views | nodge_blue |
I think it's because our democracies allow open debate and more divisions within our societies. We aren't uniformly the same either within our own country or between countries. |  |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 08:55 - Jan 14 with 278 views | Churchman |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 08:13 - Jan 14 by ghostofescobar |
There is a train of thought that the Russian threat to Europe is widely overblown, as they just can’t afford a wider physical war. They have the same GDP as Spain. |
When such a high percentage of their GDP goes on military, they can afford it. The leaders have the will to do just that and the numbers posted earlier speak for themselves. The key is conquest. Take others under your wing and get them to pay. Especially as his reserves, funded by the west buying oil etc, are finite.
Let’s not forget that Nazi Germany was bankrupt by 1941. Yet prosecuted a war for the next four years. It was partly able to do it by rinsing occupied countries, working 1000s of slaves to death and even stealing all captured countries’ food at the end of the war. Don’t forget, approx 40% of armour and vehicles that invaded France in 1940 was made in Czechoslovakia factories after it was eaten in 38/39.
The train of thought of Russia threat being overblown is probably music to Sir Kier’s ears. It’d certainly explain why he’s not interested beyond seeing shaking hands with tools like Macron as a photo opportunity.
It’d also explain the annual cuts to the military and this country’s ability to build things like helicopters with the last factory (formerly Westlands) due to close.
There’s nothing wrong with optimism, priorities and hoping for the best. But the evidence of what Russia is doing and intends is there and has been for years in my view. | | | |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 09:35 - Jan 14 with 255 views | Guthrum |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 04:05 - Jan 14 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Genuine question, why does everyone on here always talk about Europe and the EU as if it’s some kind of centre left united front?
Just ignoring the policies and governments of quite a few of the member states? |
Because, in comparison with the Russian, Chinese or current US administrations, it broadly is.
There are outliers, such as Hungary. However, the most influential and economically powerful EU/European states are run by governments somewhere between centre-left and centre-right. Even Meloni in Italy, while very anti-immigration, is not in practical terms that far off centre otherwise (can't afford to be).
Plus the EU itself, being born of a commercial union, falls within that band. | |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 09:39 - Jan 14 with 240 views | DJR |
The country which would seem to have the highest proportion of it population in the armed forces is the Vatican City.
It has a population of 506 and a Swiss Guard of 135.
No one messes with the Vatican City.  |  | | |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 09:57 - Jan 14 with 212 views | tiptreeblue |
Because too many countries with different structures and goals that very little gets passed. That is the whole problem with belonging to large groups. Look at NATO, there is always somebody who votes against a proposal that it's impossible to sort anything. Hence why if people got behind brexit instead of trying to derail it in the long run the country would be better off, | | | |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 09:59 - Jan 14 with 207 views | NthQldITFC |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 09:39 - Jan 14 by DJR |
The country which would seem to have the highest proportion of it population in the armed forces is the Vatican City.
It has a population of 506 and a Swiss Guard of 135.
No one messes with the Vatican City. |
And their halberds are the sharpest in the world.
Nobody is talking about that. No-one has ever seen sharper halberds than the Pope has. He's a good guy, the Pope, I think we're gonna do a deal with God and make Heaven the next state of the US. We need Heaven in case the Devil puts his ship all over it. They are already, you know, they're crawling all over heaven, the Devil's ships. But, you know, he's a great guy, the Devil, I think we can do some kind of deal with him and make Hell the next state of the US. The people there really want it to happen, and there must be lots of oil and stuff there because of all the fires. I don't know what they have in Heaven, maybe crystals or something?
Blimey. It's easy to slip into deranged, overfed, racist Grandad mode out of nothing, isn't it? | |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 10:00 - Jan 14 with 207 views | itfcjoe |
Because we've let bad actors influence and disrupt it from the inside so it is very divided to the benefit of Putin and the Far Right Alliance nationalists |  |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 10:07 - Jan 14 with 189 views | itfcjoe |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 08:55 - Jan 14 by Churchman |
When such a high percentage of their GDP goes on military, they can afford it. The leaders have the will to do just that and the numbers posted earlier speak for themselves. The key is conquest. Take others under your wing and get them to pay. Especially as his reserves, funded by the west buying oil etc, are finite.
Let’s not forget that Nazi Germany was bankrupt by 1941. Yet prosecuted a war for the next four years. It was partly able to do it by rinsing occupied countries, working 1000s of slaves to death and even stealing all captured countries’ food at the end of the war. Don’t forget, approx 40% of armour and vehicles that invaded France in 1940 was made in Czechoslovakia factories after it was eaten in 38/39.
The train of thought of Russia threat being overblown is probably music to Sir Kier’s ears. It’d certainly explain why he’s not interested beyond seeing shaking hands with tools like Macron as a photo opportunity.
It’d also explain the annual cuts to the military and this country’s ability to build things like helicopters with the last factory (formerly Westlands) due to close.
There’s nothing wrong with optimism, priorities and hoping for the best. But the evidence of what Russia is doing and intends is there and has been for years in my view. |
It's not really the case now that the victor gets the spoils in war, if Russia takes what it has of Ukraine the realistic outcome is it ends up with more expensive problems than it does the loot of the land | |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 10:21 - Jan 14 with 159 views | baxterbasics |
I'll give you my opinion on why Europe is not keeping up economically. I've said this here before.
Over-regulation. The EU is crushing business and innovation one piece of red tape at a time. Death by a thousand cuts. It was one of the most persuasive arguments for leaving (far more valid than "taking back control of are borders"). Unfortunately we seem to be determined to stay aligned with much of this anyway.
For Europe to thrive it needs to be much more dynamic and flexible than the bloated bureaucracy currently allows. |  |
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| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 10:43 - Jan 14 with 140 views | Churchman |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 10:07 - Jan 14 by itfcjoe |
It's not really the case now that the victor gets the spoils in war, if Russia takes what it has of Ukraine the realistic outcome is it ends up with more expensive problems than it does the loot of the land |
It will take all of Ukraine eventually, just as Hitler took all of Czechoslovakia within a year of Munich. There is nothing to stop them. Ukraine is a resource-rich country and also joins up properly with Crimea and provides better access to the Black Sea.
I don’t think it’s about Donbas or any other area it’s infiltrated then spuriously claimed. It never was. It’s a juicy opportunity to take the lot. If you are Putin, why wouldn’t you? | | | |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 10:49 - Jan 14 with 123 views | J2BLUE |
| A very simplistic view of world blocs - why does 'Europe' feel so weak? on 04:05 - Jan 14 by Joey_Joe_Joe_Junior |
Genuine question, why does everyone on here always talk about Europe and the EU as if it’s some kind of centre left united front?
Just ignoring the policies and governments of quite a few of the member states? |
No idea, maybe ask someone doing that? | |
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