| Recent UK election results analysis 14:50 - May 10 with 1345 views | KBsSocks |
Reform did better in areas that are more deprived, older, and - most starkly - less well-educated.
Greens where there are more renters and in areas where there is a higher proportion of Muslims. Also in areas where the population is younger and somewhat better educated.
Discuss, if you wish.
https://www.theguardian.com/po [Post edited 10 May 14:51]
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 15:05 - May 10 with 1265 views | EddyJ |
The education argument is always brought out as a point scorer, but its really not as interesting as it sounds.
Firstly, it is a proxy for age. A smaller proportion of boomers went to university than millenials or gen zs.
Secondly, Reform have policies that claim to benefit people with less education. Migrants tend to compete for blue-collar jobs, so drive down salaries for the less educated. The less educated may be correct to believe it is in their interest to vote Reform, while the more educated may feel it is in their interest to vote Green. |  | | |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 15:10 - May 10 with 1232 views | J2BLUE |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 15:05 - May 10 by EddyJ |
The education argument is always brought out as a point scorer, but its really not as interesting as it sounds.
Firstly, it is a proxy for age. A smaller proportion of boomers went to university than millenials or gen zs.
Secondly, Reform have policies that claim to benefit people with less education. Migrants tend to compete for blue-collar jobs, so drive down salaries for the less educated. The less educated may be correct to believe it is in their interest to vote Reform, while the more educated may feel it is in their interest to vote Green. |
Agree, and records are broken most years for exam results etc so younger people voting Green isn't a massive shock. |  | | |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 15:12 - May 10 with 1219 views | BelsteadCav |
The Guardian 🤣😂😂😂😂
No thank you |  |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 15:34 - May 10 with 1162 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 15:05 - May 10 by EddyJ |
The education argument is always brought out as a point scorer, but its really not as interesting as it sounds.
Firstly, it is a proxy for age. A smaller proportion of boomers went to university than millenials or gen zs.
Secondly, Reform have policies that claim to benefit people with less education. Migrants tend to compete for blue-collar jobs, so drive down salaries for the less educated. The less educated may be correct to believe it is in their interest to vote Reform, while the more educated may feel it is in their interest to vote Green. |
It might be more significant that first appears. There was a similar pattern with the Brexit referendum and it took more detailed studies to untangle the contribution of separate factors behind the leave vote. In one of these deeper dives it was found that education was a major driver and the impact of age had been initially been over-estimated - https://www.sciencedirect.com/
I’m not saying that’s the same here even though there will be significant overlap between Leave voters and Reform - we’ll have to see, but it will be possible to assess the relative impact of different demographic characteristics one the statisticians have done their regression analyses and fancy voodoo stuff. |  |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 16:04 - May 10 with 1085 views | Freddies_Ears |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 15:05 - May 10 by EddyJ |
The education argument is always brought out as a point scorer, but its really not as interesting as it sounds.
Firstly, it is a proxy for age. A smaller proportion of boomers went to university than millenials or gen zs.
Secondly, Reform have policies that claim to benefit people with less education. Migrants tend to compete for blue-collar jobs, so drive down salaries for the less educated. The less educated may be correct to believe it is in their interest to vote Reform, while the more educated may feel it is in their interest to vote Green. |
The baseline for education in the report was the proportion of people with 2 or more A levels.
Anecdotally, I know many older (65+) graduates, but only 1 admits to being a Reform voter, and he only switched because the Tories have a female leader (er, ethnicity probably played a part but racists don't like to admit it). | | | |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 16:19 - May 10 with 1026 views | Ftnfwest |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 15:05 - May 10 by EddyJ |
The education argument is always brought out as a point scorer, but its really not as interesting as it sounds.
Firstly, it is a proxy for age. A smaller proportion of boomers went to university than millenials or gen zs.
Secondly, Reform have policies that claim to benefit people with less education. Migrants tend to compete for blue-collar jobs, so drive down salaries for the less educated. The less educated may be correct to believe it is in their interest to vote Reform, while the more educated may feel it is in their interest to vote Green. |
Has to be coloured by the fact that 20-30 years ago plus, only 5-10% of school students went to university, and before that even less. There are now enough places that 50% plus or whatever it is can go thus making them ‘better educated’. Although the frightening this is who’s ‘educating’ them tbh. |  | | |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 16:20 - May 10 with 1019 views | onceablue |
These are the broad generalisations that got us to this point in the first place. | | | |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 16:45 - May 10 with 959 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 16:04 - May 10 by Freddies_Ears |
The baseline for education in the report was the proportion of people with 2 or more A levels.
Anecdotally, I know many older (65+) graduates, but only 1 admits to being a Reform voter, and he only switched because the Tories have a female leader (er, ethnicity probably played a part but racists don't like to admit it). |
Yes, they’re not talking about university level, just to two or more A levels. In the last GE, the percentage voting for them with A levels was 16% overall and dropped to just 8% for those with a degree. https://yougov.com/en-gb/artic
A touchy subject because people will obviously get defensive and think they’re being called stupid, whereas this is just a measure of education level not intelligence. Also education level feeds into what happens to people after education. Those with no A levels are more likely to have restricted opportunities in the job market (not always of course, you get entrepreneurial types with frw quals who do very well for themselves). So a lot of these demographic traits (education, social class, housing type, etc) will have complex interactions. | |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 16:46 - May 10 with 960 views | DJR |
This is a very comprehensive (and recent) analysis of voting intention by things like age, gender, social class, education, political attention level and housing tenure.
https://yougov.com/en-gb/artic
As someone has suggested education may not be a particularly good factor to consider for the reason mentioned, and social class may be slightly better in this regard although that may in part reflect lesser educational opportunities in times past.
The headline takeaway is the following.
"Reform UK support is highest among Leave voters, those with lower levels of education, and those from routine and manual occupations, while peaking among those in their 60s." [Post edited 10 May 17:03]
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 19:30 - May 10 with 826 views | KBsSocks |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 15:05 - May 10 by EddyJ |
The education argument is always brought out as a point scorer, but its really not as interesting as it sounds.
Firstly, it is a proxy for age. A smaller proportion of boomers went to university than millenials or gen zs.
Secondly, Reform have policies that claim to benefit people with less education. Migrants tend to compete for blue-collar jobs, so drive down salaries for the less educated. The less educated may be correct to believe it is in their interest to vote Reform, while the more educated may feel it is in their interest to vote Green. |
Interesting points and thank you.
Education isn't a particularly strong proxy for age, boomers in the UK had free university or college education - and more colleges became universities in the noughties. Also the data looks at 2 A-levels or equivalent, which is not necessarily university-level: until a few years ago, you could leave school at 16 with GCSE-equivalent. Nowadays, it's until 18, and students are expected to study beyond GCSE.
Migrants include doctors and nurses, as well as fruit-pickers, for example - and we have a Minimum Wage, although this may not always be paid especially if some of the migrants are not legally in the UK. But with fruit-picking, fruit often goes unpicked when available Minimum Wage earners are not interested in the work. | |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 19:31 - May 10 with 818 views | KBsSocks |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 15:12 - May 10 by BelsteadCav |
The Guardian 🤣😂😂😂😂
No thank you |
You prefer dependent-journalism, rather than independent journalism ?
Or what ? | |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 19:33 - May 10 with 806 views | KBsSocks |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 16:19 - May 10 by Ftnfwest |
Has to be coloured by the fact that 20-30 years ago plus, only 5-10% of school students went to university, and before that even less. There are now enough places that 50% plus or whatever it is can go thus making them ‘better educated’. Although the frightening this is who’s ‘educating’ them tbh. |
The stats look at 2 A-levels or equivalent, which is not "university". | |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 21:09 - May 10 with 686 views | KBsSocks |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 15:12 - May 10 by BelsteadCav |
The Guardian 🤣😂😂😂😂
No thank you |
It's a pretty interesting analysis, and you missed that.
If Mark Cavendish omitted to look at such an analysis in his sport, for example, he would likely have not accomplished as much as he did.
(Add multiple emoticons here) | |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 22:00 - May 10 with 594 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 16:46 - May 10 by DJR |
This is a very comprehensive (and recent) analysis of voting intention by things like age, gender, social class, education, political attention level and housing tenure.
https://yougov.com/en-gb/artic
As someone has suggested education may not be a particularly good factor to consider for the reason mentioned, and social class may be slightly better in this regard although that may in part reflect lesser educational opportunities in times past.
The headline takeaway is the following.
"Reform UK support is highest among Leave voters, those with lower levels of education, and those from routine and manual occupations, while peaking among those in their 60s." [Post edited 10 May 17:03]
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It looks to me that Reform didn’t perform so well in areas where Lib Dems do well.
Wonder what would have happened if the Lib Dem’s had tried to persuade dissatisfied Tory & Labour voters to move to the real middle ground and vote for them.
Still finding it difficult to understand how people saw Labour as Tory Lite and then voted for Tories on steroids. |  |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 22:11 - May 10 with 578 views | KBsSocks |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 16:46 - May 10 by DJR |
This is a very comprehensive (and recent) analysis of voting intention by things like age, gender, social class, education, political attention level and housing tenure.
https://yougov.com/en-gb/artic
As someone has suggested education may not be a particularly good factor to consider for the reason mentioned, and social class may be slightly better in this regard although that may in part reflect lesser educational opportunities in times past.
The headline takeaway is the following.
"Reform UK support is highest among Leave voters, those with lower levels of education, and those from routine and manual occupations, while peaking among those in their 60s." [Post edited 10 May 17:03]
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That link is really important, and heartening as well as a good read.
Interesting how nascent the Green vote is, and also how big the differences are between males and females.
But also how low income is a Reform thing - other voters are across incomes range.
Political attention is a Reform thing, too. Inattention - can't be bothered, and populist soundbites, I guess.
Plus pure undiluted "leave" if there were another EU vote.
Green shoots - youth is persuaded to consider alternatives to the old order, looks like by the YouGov analysis. Thank goodness such things are not yet suppressed here in the UK.
The Yoof will of course moderate their views - or perhaps make their preferences become more mainstream. Time will tell.
Looks like "considered politics" will become the new order once the old guard is regarded as defunct. Perhaps. And Reform in the meantime, maybe. Or Reform versus Green, rather than Tory versus Labour. | |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 22:16 - May 10 with 565 views | KBsSocks |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 22:00 - May 10 by Pinewoodblue |
It looks to me that Reform didn’t perform so well in areas where Lib Dems do well.
Wonder what would have happened if the Lib Dem’s had tried to persuade dissatisfied Tory & Labour voters to move to the real middle ground and vote for them.
Still finding it difficult to understand how people saw Labour as Tory Lite and then voted for Tories on steroids. |
It doesn't strike me as "Tories on steroids", looking at the YouGov analysis, it seems to me it's more New Order politics - "we are fed up with the old order". Age and education - plus old politics to a degree - dictating where your New Order lies.
Lib Dems seem somewhat insulated by my reading. | |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 22:41 - May 10 with 542 views | The_Major |
I heard someone on the radio a couple of weeks ago say that a big problem these days is that people don't employ critical thinking. And with AI etc, that's now more important then ever.
Too many people take things at face value on social media and assume that it's true. They don't stop to think "Hang on, does that make sense? Why would they say or do that?" or similar. "But I read it in the paper/on Facebook" is a phrase all to often hear when people are asked where they heard some ridiculous falsehood.
Case in point - last year, there were adverts running on YouTube that
showed British news readers and presenters seemingly pushing forward a crypto platform.
This came to a head when there were adverts showing er, Prince William and Keir Starmer seemingly shilling for these shysters.
Obviously, it was AI, and people fell for it. And these people didn't have the wit to think "Hang on, why is the heir to the throne/Prime Minister doing adverts? And more to the point, why are they saying that UK residents are in line to receive thousands of dollars?"
There'll be people out there who voted a particular way because they saw something on Facebook, or read a newspaper headline, and didn't stop to question it. If people went away and did research, and then came to a different conclusion than me, then I may think you're completely wrong, but fair enough.
If this was 1975, then you are completely reliant on what is said in the news bulletins and the printed press for your information. But it isn't. There's not much excuse these days for people not double checking things. Every single person that is reading this has got access to search for statistics or whatever to do this. A simple Google search can often instantly prove that a claim someone has made is complete gubbins. But people can't be bothered.
As I was taught at an early age, question everything, even when it's on your side of the argument. [Post edited 10 May 22:50]
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 22:44 - May 10 with 535 views | StokieBlue |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 22:41 - May 10 by The_Major |
I heard someone on the radio a couple of weeks ago say that a big problem these days is that people don't employ critical thinking. And with AI etc, that's now more important then ever.
Too many people take things at face value on social media and assume that it's true. They don't stop to think "Hang on, does that make sense? Why would they say or do that?" or similar. "But I read it in the paper/on Facebook" is a phrase all to often hear when people are asked where they heard some ridiculous falsehood.
Case in point - last year, there were adverts running on YouTube that
showed British news readers and presenters seemingly pushing forward a crypto platform.
This came to a head when there were adverts showing er, Prince William and Keir Starmer seemingly shilling for these shysters.
Obviously, it was AI, and people fell for it. And these people didn't have the wit to think "Hang on, why is the heir to the throne/Prime Minister doing adverts? And more to the point, why are they saying that UK residents are in line to receive thousands of dollars?"
There'll be people out there who voted a particular way because they saw something on Facebook, or read a newspaper headline, and didn't stop to question it. If people went away and did research, and then came to a different conclusion than me, then I may think you're completely wrong, but fair enough.
If this was 1975, then you are completely reliant on what is said in the news bulletins and the printed press for your information. But it isn't. There's not much excuse these days for people not double checking things. Every single person that is reading this has got access to search for statistics or whatever to do this. A simple Google search can often instantly prove that a claim someone has made is complete gubbins. But people can't be bothered.
As I was taught at an early age, question everything, even when it's on your side of the argument. [Post edited 10 May 22:50]
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As well as that there is a secondary issue whereby if someone is presented with verified factual evidence they just say "I don't believe it".
Word for word that has happened this week on this forum.
SB [Post edited 10 May 22:49]
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| Avatar - M101 - Pinwheel Galaxy |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 22:51 - May 10 with 493 views | KBsSocks |
The_Major, thank you for that post - I am not going to quote it, but the (lack of) "critical thinking" is my position on what is happening.
Populism is "instant pudding": "[three words] sounds good, I cannot be bothered to spend time contemplating what any issues are, I want the quickest get-out".
And "As I was taught at an early age, question everything, even when it's on your side of the argument. " is a REALLY important point. But it's not something "instant pudding" encourages, unfortunately. [Post edited 10 May 22:53]
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 22:51 - May 10 with 490 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 22:00 - May 10 by Pinewoodblue |
It looks to me that Reform didn’t perform so well in areas where Lib Dems do well.
Wonder what would have happened if the Lib Dem’s had tried to persuade dissatisfied Tory & Labour voters to move to the real middle ground and vote for them.
Still finding it difficult to understand how people saw Labour as Tory Lite and then voted for Tories on steroids. |
Other than being ‘tough on immigration’, which oddly they weren’t when in power, there is much the Tories have in common with Reform. |  |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 23:05 - May 10 with 417 views | KBsSocks |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 22:51 - May 10 by GlasgowBlue |
Other than being ‘tough on immigration’, which oddly they weren’t when in power, there is much the Tories have in common with Reform. |
Hmm. Much in common, except the YouGov link shows very interesting differences: household income is flat for Tory support, but starkly lower-income for Reform (I would have expected Tories to be higher income overall, Tory support is pretty similar across all incomes).
Yet Housing Ownership is similar Tory v Reform. How is this ? Well, it's not - Home OWNERS have similar % voting, Tory and Reform, yet Reform is vastly higher for those in Social (not-owned or rented) housing.
Let's check Age as a factor ... Men 65+ are more to Reform, women 65+ are more to Tory ...
It's complicated. | |
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| Recent UK election results analysis on 23:17 - May 10 with 375 views | The_Major |
| Recent UK election results analysis on 22:51 - May 10 by KBsSocks |
The_Major, thank you for that post - I am not going to quote it, but the (lack of) "critical thinking" is my position on what is happening.
Populism is "instant pudding": "[three words] sounds good, I cannot be bothered to spend time contemplating what any issues are, I want the quickest get-out".
And "As I was taught at an early age, question everything, even when it's on your side of the argument. " is a REALLY important point. But it's not something "instant pudding" encourages, unfortunately. [Post edited 10 May 22:53]
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Here's another case in point to show that people don't question things, but non-political this time.
A couple of winters ago, Liverpool played on a night when the temperatures were way below zero. Somebody said to me a couple of days later that they had read a story that said it was so cold that Alisson contracted frostbite in his toes, and two of them had to be amputated.
This was of course, a post from a Temu version of the Daily Mash or similar, but I had to gently point out that if it was true, wouldn't it be the case that the back pages would be all over it, Sky Sports and TalkSport would have barely talked about anything else, and there'd be other people talking about it everywhere - it'd be a pretty big story if it had been a Sunday League player, let alone a key player for one of the biggest clubs on the planet
But it was believed because it was on Facebook. | | | |
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