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Which I completely understand. Right now as I look at the squad we’d obviously go down.
We weren’t anywhere near good enough last time, overspent on some poor recruitment and only just got over the line to make it back. Not to mention a new manager that also has scars from 2024.
What I do find fascinating, is I’ve seen plenty thinking we will be bottom and Cov are going to survive. Hull are almost the sexy Sunderland style pick as they kind of got promoted from nowhere and have a foreign coach.
Funnily enough I remember many having us to do well in the PL last time, even though we were starting a season brining on the likes of Harness and Ali Hamadi.
You really can’t take anything from an EFL season and equate it to the promoted sides. If that were the case Burnley would be established and Sunderland would have comfortably gone down.
So far I think our transfer business is ahead of Hull and Cov have been quiet. I also think the type of recruitment is more encouraging and extensive.
Massive month ahead, so much to do but I’m quietly optimistic we can build out a competitive squad if we keep the foot to the floor in the market with smart signings.
Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 08:36 - Jul 27 by muccletonjoe
I wouldn't predict us staying up at the minute. Need at least 2 midfielders of top quality . Plus the same in defence. Plus another striker.
Yep, until we fin out our midfield targets/signings are then it's anyone's guess. It's such a key area to get right (Xhaka for example) Get that right and we could be in for an exciting season, get it wrong and we get bulldozed, then it will be a slog.
Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 09:17 - Jul 27 by SuffolkPunchFC
This is where I think people need to be realistic. Sure, injuries could disrupt us badly if a key player is out for months, or the entire season. However, we’re not going to have top PL starters sitting on the bench for much of the season.
I’ll take pelters for this, but imo Kipre and Johnson are ok as bench/squad cover for DOS, Diop, and Greaves. We have more pressing needs to improve elsewhere. I wouldn’t say no to one more solid CB, but see 5 or 6 positions I’d like to see improvements in first.
You won’t get pelters from me. I get that many don’t like or rate last season’s players and believe few if any can play at Premier League level, but I disagree with that. We have more players suited to Premier League than two years ago and I do think Kipre and Johnson are ok as cover.
I’d like to see a couple of Premier League quality midfielders and a No 9 (Delap maybe?) as a bare minimum to give us a chance. Last season’s team was just getting to the point of being a real team. You could see the cohesion that wasn’t there early in the season. I’d hate to lose that and start with a completely new team. Strengthen? Yes. Completely replace? No.
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Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 12:11 - Jul 27 with 566 views
Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 11:11 - Jul 27 by IPSWICHFANITFC
Let's see how they finish the transfer window. They will need to add more quality, but they have a manager and an playing style without the ball. They might have maxed out their luck in terms of goals scored vs XG, but they had a similar style to Sunderland when they were promoted.
The difference will be in recruitment. Sunderland got it spot on. Hull haven't really done anything as of yet.
"They might have maxed out their luck in terms of goals scored vs XG, but they had a similar style to Sunderland when they were promoted."
If the style was similar, that's where the comparison stops. Hull's expected performance stats (it's not just xG) had them finishing 2nd bottom - they really rode their luck last season. In the season Sunderland were promoted, their expected stats were only just behind what they achieved.
Hull are a massive outlier - Sunderland weren't - they were just slightly ahead of where they'd have expected to be.
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Relegation bettings odds are currently: on 12:25 - Jul 27 with 541 views
Relegation bettings odds are currently: on 11:33 - Jul 27 by WolfieAtTheBack
To get 39 points guaranteed, it would need to look something like this.
Is this possible on paper?
Hull - Win home and away (6)
Coventry - Win home and away (6)
Sunderland - Win home and away (6)
Crystal Palace - Win home and away (6)
Leeds - Win home (3)
Fulham - Win home (3)
Nottm Forest - Win home (3)
Brentford - Win home (3)
Bournemouth - Win home (3)
[Post edited 27 Jul 11:33]
That will be hard - but also not entirely needed. If we're close to being good enough to picking up a clutch of wins, then there will be a reasonable number of draws in there too.
10 wins and 10 draws will be close to keeping us up (or 9 and 12...)
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Relegation bettings odds are currently: on 12:31 - Jul 27 with 520 views
Relegation bettings odds are currently: on 12:25 - Jul 27 by SuffolkPunchFC
That will be hard - but also not entirely needed. If we're close to being good enough to picking up a clutch of wins, then there will be a reasonable number of draws in there too.
10 wins and 10 draws will be close to keeping us up (or 9 and 12...)
Knowing us we will beat Villa twice and lose to Hull twice.
The whole thing is utter madness and I am 100% here for it.
Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 12:00 - Jul 27 by Churchman
You won’t get pelters from me. I get that many don’t like or rate last season’s players and believe few if any can play at Premier League level, but I disagree with that. We have more players suited to Premier League than two years ago and I do think Kipre and Johnson are ok as cover.
I’d like to see a couple of Premier League quality midfielders and a No 9 (Delap maybe?) as a bare minimum to give us a chance. Last season’s team was just getting to the point of being a real team. You could see the cohesion that wasn’t there early in the season. I’d hate to lose that and start with a completely new team. Strengthen? Yes. Completely replace? No.
What will be telling, will be how much of that cohesion came from the manager and his team.
We have just ripped up a way of playing honed over 4 years for an entirely different manager if he sticks to his past principles.
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Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 13:19 - Jul 27 with 418 views
Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 12:34 - Jul 27 by LegendofthePhoenix
Actually this guy has predicted us to survive. Makes a nice change.
Think he's right r.e Fulham- a lot of time left in the transfer window of course, but losing basically all of their goals from last season is a massive red flag
FREE ISRAEL FROM THE IDF
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Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 13:30 - Jul 27 with 379 views
Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 23:57 - Jul 26 by armchaircritic59
It's irrelevant what anybody thinks, the only thing that counts is what we actually do ( or don't ). Most of these so called pundits, neutrals etc, wouldn't know which end of a horse you put the hay in.
Agreed. From the fans perspective an uneducated Arsenal fan mate of mind said he fancied Coventry to stay up. I asked him why (knowing he knew SFA in general about football) and he’s response was Lampard.. that pretty much summed that one up then. If we get the 6 plus players we need i actually think we’ll be much more competitive without thinking we’ll definitely achieve our objective.
[Post edited 27 Jul 14:47]
Gav
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Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 14:13 - Jul 27 with 309 views
Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 13:19 - Jul 27 by bartyg
Think he's right r.e Fulham- a lot of time left in the transfer window of course, but losing basically all of their goals from last season is a massive red flag
Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 11:37 - Jul 27 by hype313
Yep, until we fin out our midfield targets/signings are then it's anyone's guess. It's such a key area to get right (Xhaka for example) Get that right and we could be in for an exciting season, get it wrong and we get bulldozed, then it will be a slog.
don't think xhaka was signed by this stage last season either
Miles off staying up as it is. We have loads to do, with lots of experience needed. Not kids with potential . We haven’t time for that. Maybe one or two but no more. As it stands we won’t get 22 points like we did last time.
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Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 15:05 - Jul 27 with 231 views
Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 15:01 - Jul 27 by blueoutlook
Miles off staying up as it is. We have loads to do, with lots of experience needed. Not kids with potential . We haven’t time for that. Maybe one or two but no more. As it stands we won’t get 22 points like we did last time.
in which areas are we weaker than at this stage(or even at the start of the season)in 2024-25?
manager, sure, can't see where you're coming from on the rest!
Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 15:01 - Jul 27 by blueoutlook
Miles off staying up as it is. We have loads to do, with lots of experience needed. Not kids with potential . We haven’t time for that. Maybe one or two but no more. As it stands we won’t get 22 points like we did last time.
By the end of October last time we had 4 points from the first 9 matches.
I think this time we will have 9 points by end of October with wins over Sunderland, Hull and Forest.
Basically if we can do enough to scrap past Sunderland we are in better shape than last time...
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Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 15:11 - Jul 27 with 215 views
Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 15:05 - Jul 27 by positivity
in which areas are we weaker than at this stage(or even at the start of the season)in 2024-25?
manager, sure, can't see where you're coming from on the rest!
Midfield is pretty weak I would say. Up front isn’t looking great. Hirst and a young kid who will probably do no more than Egeli did last season. So two areas where we are definitely weak.
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Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 16:09 - Jul 27 with 126 views
Haven’t seen any neutrals/outsiders predicting us to stay up on 15:43 - Jul 27 by blueoutlook
Midfield is pretty weak I would say. Up front isn’t looking great. Hirst and a young kid who will probably do no more than Egeli did last season. So two areas where we are definitely weak.
no-one's said we don't need any more signing, however you said we were *weaker* than 2024-25 and wouldn't get as many points, that seems a bit "sky is falling in"!
in midfield we had 2 older players, whose legs were going (neither of whom have a club 2 years on plus taylor and humphreys. (cajuste and phillips came in later). would say we're stronger with nunez and azor now
up front we had hirst, al-hamadi and ladapo (plus a promising winger who'd scored a few for hull in the championship). would say we're marginally stronger with emersonnn and akpom
Relegation bettings odds are currently: on 11:33 - Jul 27 by WolfieAtTheBack
To get 39 points guaranteed, it would need to look something like this.
Is this possible on paper?
Hull - Win home and away (6)
Coventry - Win home and away (6)
Sunderland - Win home and away (6)
Crystal Palace - Win home and away (6)
Leeds - Win home (3)
Fulham - Win home (3)
Nottm Forest - Win home (3)
Brentford - Win home (3)
Bournemouth - Win home (3)
[Post edited 27 Jul 11:33]
Thanks for posting that. Reminds me of a thread a while ago.
Obviously it won’t pan out where all our points come from lower teams - we’ll pick up the odd shock. But it’s broadly correct to say these are where the majority of points will come from.
Shows the difficulty of the task.
I think Sunderland and Palace could be win at home and draw away.
But if anyone thinks we’re going to stay up if we don’t beat Hull and Coventry at home.. they’re in la la land. We HAD to beat Saints at home last time round, had to.
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