| Tide turning? 11:06 - Jul 28 with 2074 views | bluelagos |
Our latest voting intention sees cross over. Labour move ahead by 4. Their first lead since March 2025 & highest share since Nov 24
🌹 LAB 28% (+4)
⏩ REF 24% (-2)
🌳 CON 22% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1)
🟢 GREEN 8% (-3)
🟡 SNP 2% (nc)
N = 2061| Dates 24-27/7| Change w 22/7 — Luke Tryl (@luketryl.bsky.social) 2026-07-27T10:42:39.900Z
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| Tide turning? on 11:08 - Jul 28 with 2003 views | Cheltenham_Blue |
New manager bounce. |  |
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| Tide turning? on 11:12 - Jul 28 with 1937 views | bluelagos |
Like McCarthy or McKenna though? | |
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| Tide turning? on 11:12 - Jul 28 with 1934 views | eireblue |
Yea, I think Count Binface will need more than that 4%, but it’s a start. |  | | |
| Tide turning? on 11:13 - Jul 28 with 1919 views | J2BLUE |
This is precisely why I think Labour went too soon. Should have saved it for 12-15 months before the election.
Although, if their lead continues and grows, maybe he will gamble and call an early election. Resetting the clock and defeating them would hopefully kill off Reform and end Farage's career in the UK (no doubt he would join the right wing circuit in the US but who really cares at that point?).
I don't think this goes away though. I think Reform voters will flock to Restore if the next GE is lost. |  | | |
| Tide turning? on 11:18 - Jul 28 with 1858 views | bluelagos |
| Tide turning? on 11:12 - Jul 28 by eireblue |
Yea, I think Count Binface will need more than that 4%, but it’s a start. |
Even with the cost of 99 flake ice creams capped at 99p?
Populist politics right there! | |
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| Tide turning? on 11:36 - Jul 28 with 1740 views | Blueschev |
| Tide turning? on 11:13 - Jul 28 by J2BLUE |
This is precisely why I think Labour went too soon. Should have saved it for 12-15 months before the election.
Although, if their lead continues and grows, maybe he will gamble and call an early election. Resetting the clock and defeating them would hopefully kill off Reform and end Farage's career in the UK (no doubt he would join the right wing circuit in the US but who really cares at that point?).
I don't think this goes away though. I think Reform voters will flock to Restore if the next GE is lost. |
I'm not sure Restore are palatable to enough people to make a significant dent. Talk of mass deportations / remigration is quite off putting to a not especially radical British electorate, and that's really all they are offering. Rupert Lowe also comes across as a bitter and angry old toff, he doesn't have Farage's "common touch", which appears to be fading from him also. |  | | |
| Tide turning? on 11:47 - Jul 28 with 1610 views | lowhouseblue |
long way to go, but still very good. finishing reform off still needs the tories to do better.
greens back to 8%. perhaps the current entryists will now move on and let them get back to environmental stuff. they can take over your party and get it up above the margin of error. [Post edited 28 Jul 11:48]
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| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Tide turning? on 11:48 - Jul 28 with 1617 views | StokieBlue |
| Tide turning? on 11:13 - Jul 28 by J2BLUE |
This is precisely why I think Labour went too soon. Should have saved it for 12-15 months before the election.
Although, if their lead continues and grows, maybe he will gamble and call an early election. Resetting the clock and defeating them would hopefully kill off Reform and end Farage's career in the UK (no doubt he would join the right wing circuit in the US but who really cares at that point?).
I don't think this goes away though. I think Reform voters will flock to Restore if the next GE is lost. |
Why do you think that will happen?
We've been told on here many, many times that Reform voters aren't racists and they shouldn't be called so. Given this why would they "flock" to what is a pretty racist party?
SB [Post edited 28 Jul 11:49]
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| Tide turning? on 11:50 - Jul 28 with 1555 views | positivity |
| Tide turning? on 11:48 - Jul 28 by StokieBlue |
Why do you think that will happen?
We've been told on here many, many times that Reform voters aren't racists and they shouldn't be called so. Given this why would they "flock" to what is a pretty racist party?
SB [Post edited 28 Jul 11:49]
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more of an ugly, utterly undisguised racist party than pretty! |  |
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| Tide turning? on 11:50 - Jul 28 with 1554 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Tide turning? on 11:13 - Jul 28 by J2BLUE |
This is precisely why I think Labour went too soon. Should have saved it for 12-15 months before the election.
Although, if their lead continues and grows, maybe he will gamble and call an early election. Resetting the clock and defeating them would hopefully kill off Reform and end Farage's career in the UK (no doubt he would join the right wing circuit in the US but who really cares at that point?).
I don't think this goes away though. I think Reform voters will flock to Restore if the next GE is lost. |
Hopefully based on a pledge to rejoin* the EU and/or restore FoM.
* hold a referendum on, I guess. [Post edited 28 Jul 11:51]
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| Tide turning? on 11:58 - Jul 28 with 1448 views | DanTheMan |
Possibly, until he doesn't fix things within a few months and then people will get mad again. |  |
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| Tide turning? on 12:03 - Jul 28 with 1404 views | Guthrum |
If you look at this graph of collated polling since the last General Election, there is a fairly obvious rise, peak (late autumn 2025) and steady decline in the vote share for Reform, With a shorter-lived and more recent bump for the Greens. Labour and the Conservatives were beginning to trend quite steeply upwards even before the departure and replacement of Starmer (Badenoch, obviously, remains in position).
Labour are already getting consistent parity with (give or take reasonable error margins), or even overtaking of, Reform.
We are still in the territory of a hung parliament, but perhaps with Reform no longer the largest party. Doubly so, given the latter's more limited regional concentrations, which work so well for Lab (large cities), Con (rural) and LD (the South West) under FPTP.
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| Tide turning? on 12:12 - Jul 28 with 1330 views | Guthrum |
| Tide turning? on 11:13 - Jul 28 by J2BLUE |
This is precisely why I think Labour went too soon. Should have saved it for 12-15 months before the election.
Although, if their lead continues and grows, maybe he will gamble and call an early election. Resetting the clock and defeating them would hopefully kill off Reform and end Farage's career in the UK (no doubt he would join the right wing circuit in the US but who really cares at that point?).
I don't think this goes away though. I think Reform voters will flock to Restore if the next GE is lost. |
On the contrary, people I have spoken to thought it was most important to remove the brake which was Starmer's obsession with foreign policy over domestic and the political clumsiness of his team - plus the crucial element of Reeves in the Treasury.
Gives them a chance, while Reform is stumbling, to make some progress and generate a bit of dynamism.
Edit: Particularly in an environment where immigration figures are (inevitably) falling* and the global economic situation is likely to at least not get much worse.
* From the post-Brexit/Covid/Johnson shambles peak. [Post edited 28 Jul 12:17]
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| Tide turning? on 12:14 - Jul 28 with 1312 views | nrb1985 |
| Tide turning? on 11:58 - Jul 28 by DanTheMan |
Possibly, until he doesn't fix things within a few months and then people will get mad again. |
Funny because it's true.
"After Truss and Johnson we need some grown up leadership to steady the ship"
"No, not that type of grown up leadership. Get him gone"
Albeit I do quite like what limited bits I've seen of Andy so far and he's likely to get lucky in terms of tariff effects now fading and oil prices coming down. | | | |
| Tide turning? on 12:35 - Jul 28 with 1124 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Tide turning? on 12:14 - Jul 28 by nrb1985 |
Funny because it's true.
"After Truss and Johnson we need some grown up leadership to steady the ship"
"No, not that type of grown up leadership. Get him gone"
Albeit I do quite like what limited bits I've seen of Andy so far and he's likely to get lucky in terms of tariff effects now fading and oil prices coming down. |
It’s extremely unlikely that oil prices will get back to the pre-Iran conflict levels anytime soon. Traffic is well down, production and refinery down, and no lasting peace deal. I’d still expect to see price spikes, so to your point it’ll be interesting to see the impact when there’s still chance of lingering inflation.
Hopefully his decentralisation plans come to something, and they can tackle regional inequalities/opportunities which have been ignored for decades. Too often such ambitious plans are pulled from internal infighting. | | | |
| Tide turning? on 14:01 - Jul 28 with 853 views | nrb1985 |
| Tide turning? on 12:35 - Jul 28 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
It’s extremely unlikely that oil prices will get back to the pre-Iran conflict levels anytime soon. Traffic is well down, production and refinery down, and no lasting peace deal. I’d still expect to see price spikes, so to your point it’ll be interesting to see the impact when there’s still chance of lingering inflation.
Hopefully his decentralisation plans come to something, and they can tackle regional inequalities/opportunities which have been ignored for decades. Too often such ambitious plans are pulled from internal infighting. |
They were below pre conflict levels 2 weeks ago and in spite of escalating tension this week, they are still around $80bbl. I think it shows that actually you can get Gulf oil coming back online much sooner than people think.
Which is chimes anecdotally with what lots of people said in as much as the damage to energy infra in the region was being exaggerated to try and get Trump back to the table.
Decentralisation I fully agree with you albeit I don't know how much impact it can have unless you let regions set their own tax rates. | | | |
| Tide turning? on 14:06 - Jul 28 with 822 views | BloomBlue |
A good start but not had a budget yet..... |  | | |
| Tide turning? on 14:14 - Jul 28 with 791 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Tide turning? on 14:01 - Jul 28 by nrb1985 |
They were below pre conflict levels 2 weeks ago and in spite of escalating tension this week, they are still around $80bbl. I think it shows that actually you can get Gulf oil coming back online much sooner than people think.
Which is chimes anecdotally with what lots of people said in as much as the damage to energy infra in the region was being exaggerated to try and get Trump back to the table.
Decentralisation I fully agree with you albeit I don't know how much impact it can have unless you let regions set their own tax rates. |
The damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf states appears to be worse than reported from some of the sources I’ve seen. They’ve downplayed it in the media, firstly to not embolden Iran to make further attacks (I.e seeing the success they’ve had), and secondly for reputations reasons (as a safe business centre). Total estimates of damage across the region are over $50bn, and there is now a battle to source engineers and infrastructure for repairs (competing states plus inability to get equipment in or out). Hormuz traffic is still little more than a trickle at this point most of the projections I’ve seen are around the $90bbl for the latter part of 2026. | | | |
| Tide turning? on 14:36 - Jul 28 with 720 views | nrb1985 |
| Tide turning? on 14:14 - Jul 28 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
The damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf states appears to be worse than reported from some of the sources I’ve seen. They’ve downplayed it in the media, firstly to not embolden Iran to make further attacks (I.e seeing the success they’ve had), and secondly for reputations reasons (as a safe business centre). Total estimates of damage across the region are over $50bn, and there is now a battle to source engineers and infrastructure for repairs (competing states plus inability to get equipment in or out). Hormuz traffic is still little more than a trickle at this point most of the projections I’ve seen are around the $90bbl for the latter part of 2026. |
There's a more detailed report but lifted the below from a GS piece on Sunday evening:
"The renewed escalation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices back up, with the
Brent futures path above our forecasts of $80/barrel in 2026Q4 and $75/barrel in
2027. The risks to these forecasts are two-sided but on net tilted upward. The swift
recovery in flows prior to the most recent escalation shows that Gulf exports can
rebound quickly when given a chance, which means that prices could fall sharply if
the latest escalation subsides. But more attacks on tankers and Middle East
infrastructure could push prices back to the $100+ range that prevailed for much of
the hot phase of the conflict"
Naively, my base case is that Trump will TACO given he has mid terms and we are now in the season for peak Oil demand. Therefore, I think there's more chance of going lower than higher again.
We shall see! [Post edited 28 Jul 14:36]
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| Tide turning? on 14:37 - Jul 28 with 701 views | DJR |
| Tide turning? on 14:14 - Jul 28 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
The damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf states appears to be worse than reported from some of the sources I’ve seen. They’ve downplayed it in the media, firstly to not embolden Iran to make further attacks (I.e seeing the success they’ve had), and secondly for reputations reasons (as a safe business centre). Total estimates of damage across the region are over $50bn, and there is now a battle to source engineers and infrastructure for repairs (competing states plus inability to get equipment in or out). Hormuz traffic is still little more than a trickle at this point most of the projections I’ve seen are around the $90bbl for the latter part of 2026. |
Interestingly, Michael Clarke of King's College, the defence expert on Sky, said last night that the even greater damage than the shortage/price of oil to much of the world is the shortage of fertilisers because we are in or approaching the time when crops are being planted in many countries. [Post edited 28 Jul 14:51]
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| Tide turning? on 14:43 - Jul 28 with 666 views | J2BLUE |
| Tide turning? on 11:50 - Jul 28 by ThisIsMyUsername |
Hopefully based on a pledge to rejoin* the EU and/or restore FoM.
* hold a referendum on, I guess. [Post edited 28 Jul 11:51]
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That would likely turn just as many away. Immigration is an issue for the population as a whole as poll after poll shows. It would be a gift to Reform to do that. | | | |
| Tide turning? on 14:43 - Jul 28 with 657 views | EdwardStone |
| Tide turning? on 14:01 - Jul 28 by nrb1985 |
They were below pre conflict levels 2 weeks ago and in spite of escalating tension this week, they are still around $80bbl. I think it shows that actually you can get Gulf oil coming back online much sooner than people think.
Which is chimes anecdotally with what lots of people said in as much as the damage to energy infra in the region was being exaggerated to try and get Trump back to the table.
Decentralisation I fully agree with you albeit I don't know how much impact it can have unless you let regions set their own tax rates. |
A strong arguement against giving more power to regions is the daylight robbery happening on Teeside where the mayor, Houchen, B is shovelling insane amounts of taxpayer's cash into his mates pockets for literally zero progress on regeneration
If more autonomy is to be given to local government then it needs to come with sufficient safeguards to stop local Griftlords nicking it |  | | |
| Tide turning? on 14:46 - Jul 28 with 639 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Tide turning? on 14:36 - Jul 28 by nrb1985 |
There's a more detailed report but lifted the below from a GS piece on Sunday evening:
"The renewed escalation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices back up, with the
Brent futures path above our forecasts of $80/barrel in 2026Q4 and $75/barrel in
2027. The risks to these forecasts are two-sided but on net tilted upward. The swift
recovery in flows prior to the most recent escalation shows that Gulf exports can
rebound quickly when given a chance, which means that prices could fall sharply if
the latest escalation subsides. But more attacks on tankers and Middle East
infrastructure could push prices back to the $100+ range that prevailed for much of
the hot phase of the conflict"
Naively, my base case is that Trump will TACO given he has mid terms and we are now in the season for peak Oil demand. Therefore, I think there's more chance of going lower than higher again.
We shall see! [Post edited 28 Jul 14:36]
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https://www.ft.com/content/c1b
This is a good in depth piece, but as someone who follows the industry closely it’s very difficult to see a way that traffic can get flowing in anything like the pre conflict levels, Russian production is also down about 30pc so their markets will be looking for alternative sources.
The other thing is - TACO isn’t calling the shots here, Iran have leveraged the Straights for years, and with their proxies resuming attacks on Saudi tankers in the Gulf of Aden, they have a real stranglehold on movements. Either way I think we are agreed it’s a clusterf…. | | | |
| Tide turning? on 14:49 - Jul 28 with 625 views | BloomBlue |
| Tide turning? on 14:37 - Jul 28 by DJR |
Interestingly, Michael Clarke of King's College, the defence expert on Sky, said last night that the even greater damage than the shortage/price of oil to much of the world is the shortage of fertilisers because we are in or approaching the time when crops are being planted in many countries. [Post edited 28 Jul 14:51]
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Bullshlt.
Or cow or chicken, that's what they need to use as fertiliser. | | | |
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