| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns 14:04 - Oct 28 with 3493 views | StokieBlue |
Seems that both France and Germany are going to announce some form of national lockdowns either today or tomorrow. Cases in France have rocketed (50,000 yesterday) and here in the UK we are at the rolling average of 200 deaths that was predicted by Vallance about 3 weeks early (although the prediction on doubling cases hasn't held true possibly due to local lockdowns).
Anyone not expecting there to be a national lockdown here sooner rather than later? Or do people think they will just keep putting areas into Tier 3 on a regular basis?
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:10 - Oct 28 with 2039 views | Mullet |
I have a genunine fear that Boris will refuse to do it again because how how it will play in the media etc.
Not that I believe it should be done unless the science says so, but it seems like it will be necessary doesn't it? We seem to have taken our eye off the death toll a bit when it was the focal point of the news cycle early on. |  |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:12 - Oct 28 with 2032 views | giant_stow |
I know nothing, but if the Uk doesn;t do a national one in the next week or so, I can't see them doing one before Christmas.
Question for you stokie, Why do you guess the France line on the graph is so straight up, whereas ours calms down every so often? |  |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:15 - Oct 28 with 2014 views | BlueBadger |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:10 - Oct 28 by Mullet |
I have a genunine fear that Boris will refuse to do it again because how how it will play in the media etc.
Not that I believe it should be done unless the science says so, but it seems like it will be necessary doesn't it? We seem to have taken our eye off the death toll a bit when it was the focal point of the news cycle early on. |
It *will* happen here at some point.
Again.
At a point in the graph of infections and cases is spiralling out of control, meaning we're locked down longer than we could have been.
Again.
Only this time, we'll also have the advantages of winter pressures on hospitals, care homes who've stung one already digging their heels in and delaying all sorts of discharges and a public who've lost all respect for the people making the rules because the people making the rules don't follow them themselves.
We are sleepwalking into a catastrophic winter period. I know of two covid related deaths(plus a couple hanging in the balance) at [redacted] our the past weekend alone. |  |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:16 - Oct 28 with 2008 views | BlueBadger |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:12 - Oct 28 by giant_stow |
I know nothing, but if the Uk doesn;t do a national one in the next week or so, I can't see them doing one before Christmas.
Question for you stokie, Why do you guess the France line on the graph is so straight up, whereas ours calms down every so often? |
Because our weekend stats don't get recorded until a Monday wheras the French record theirs continually(and thus more accurately) would be my guess. | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:19 - Oct 28 with 1992 views | NthQldITFC |
This might be a somewhat simplistic view,, but its always seemed blindingly obvious to me that we would need probably two or three periods of total lockdown over the course of the autumn and winter.
The periods would need to be a few days longer than whatever the accepted infectious period for an individual is deemed to be at the time, so probably two or three weeks. Rigourously enforced (as much as possible) this should knock the base level of infectious people right back each time and buy a couple of months coping capacity.
Nuanced local rules are great in principle, but human beings are fundamentally cheats, and will corrupt any system that isn't unchallengably simple. If everyone had known where we stood from the summer onwards most businesses could have effectively planned around brief lockdowns, even without knowing precisely when they would come.
And there would be a hell of a lot less moaning. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:19 - Oct 28 with 1982 views | StokieBlue |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:15 - Oct 28 by BlueBadger |
It *will* happen here at some point.
Again.
At a point in the graph of infections and cases is spiralling out of control, meaning we're locked down longer than we could have been.
Again.
Only this time, we'll also have the advantages of winter pressures on hospitals, care homes who've stung one already digging their heels in and delaying all sorts of discharges and a public who've lost all respect for the people making the rules because the people making the rules don't follow them themselves.
We are sleepwalking into a catastrophic winter period. I know of two covid related deaths(plus a couple hanging in the balance) at [redacted] our the past weekend alone. |
It seems to be a problem which is more than just a UK one though. France look like they should have locked down already, they are absolutely surging with their cases. I'm not really sure implementing a national lockdown in stages via localised Tier 3 is really helping. I understand why they want to do it but I wonder how many are respecting the "don't travel" rules of Tier 3 or the "take your tier with you" rule.
Looks like the French national lockdown will keep schools open so it won't be quite the same as in March. I suspect that will be the way most countries go.
I hope you're wrong about winter but realistically you're going to be spot on.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:20 - Oct 28 with 1977 views | StokieBlue |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:16 - Oct 28 by BlueBadger |
Because our weekend stats don't get recorded until a Monday wheras the French record theirs continually(and thus more accurately) would be my guess. |
I think there was also a reporting error around that time in early October.
Realistically there doesn't seem any reason why we shouldn't be following the same curve as France, Spain and Italy.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:20 - Oct 28 with 1973 views | hype313 |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:19 - Oct 28 by NthQldITFC |
This might be a somewhat simplistic view,, but its always seemed blindingly obvious to me that we would need probably two or three periods of total lockdown over the course of the autumn and winter.
The periods would need to be a few days longer than whatever the accepted infectious period for an individual is deemed to be at the time, so probably two or three weeks. Rigourously enforced (as much as possible) this should knock the base level of infectious people right back each time and buy a couple of months coping capacity.
Nuanced local rules are great in principle, but human beings are fundamentally cheats, and will corrupt any system that isn't unchallengably simple. If everyone had known where we stood from the summer onwards most businesses could have effectively planned around brief lockdowns, even without knowing precisely when they would come.
And there would be a hell of a lot less moaning. |
At least with a national lockdown everyone knows where they stand as opposed to this Tier system which requires one to have a Phd to understand. |  |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:22 - Oct 28 with 1967 views | BlueBadger |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:19 - Oct 28 by StokieBlue |
It seems to be a problem which is more than just a UK one though. France look like they should have locked down already, they are absolutely surging with their cases. I'm not really sure implementing a national lockdown in stages via localised Tier 3 is really helping. I understand why they want to do it but I wonder how many are respecting the "don't travel" rules of Tier 3 or the "take your tier with you" rule.
Looks like the French national lockdown will keep schools open so it won't be quite the same as in March. I suspect that will be the way most countries go.
I hope you're wrong about winter but realistically you're going to be spot on.
SB |
The post lockdown surge in overdoes is showing no sign in let-up as well. Saturday night I had three young people('young' being defined here as 'under 50') on my caseload in various states of 'am I worried enough to get ITU involved here'.
Somehow we kept all of them out of ITU but it was touch and go with the youngest one(who was only 20). | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:25 - Oct 28 with 1949 views | BlueBadger |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:20 - Oct 28 by hype313 |
At least with a national lockdown everyone knows where they stand as opposed to this Tier system which requires one to have a Phd to understand. |
Trouble is, with the Classic Dom incident, amongst others, coupled toothed incidences of corruption, incompetent and plain out spite, the government's moral authority on this is completely gone and it would be much, much harder to implement and police now.
In an ideal world, we'd shut down for three weeks and use the time to actually sort out track and test and plan properly for re-opening. But that won't happen. | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:28 - Oct 28 with 1924 views | hype313 |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:25 - Oct 28 by BlueBadger |
Trouble is, with the Classic Dom incident, amongst others, coupled toothed incidences of corruption, incompetent and plain out spite, the government's moral authority on this is completely gone and it would be much, much harder to implement and police now.
In an ideal world, we'd shut down for three weeks and use the time to actually sort out track and test and plan properly for re-opening. But that won't happen. |
Agreed, but the problem is the Germans had by all accounts the best Track and Trace system in the western world and they are now experiencing huge numbers, for us to implement something similar would take far too long, and how effective would it actually be if the Germans are struggling with the rate of infections. | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:35 - Oct 28 with 1893 views | StokieBlue |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:28 - Oct 28 by hype313 |
Agreed, but the problem is the Germans had by all accounts the best Track and Trace system in the western world and they are now experiencing huge numbers, for us to implement something similar would take far too long, and how effective would it actually be if the Germans are struggling with the rate of infections. |
This is a very good point, there seems to be a threshold whereby no matter how good the track and trace system it cannot keep up with exponential growth:
"Almost all regions of Germany face an exponential increase in infection rates, said the document to be discussed, and local health authorities can no longer trace all infections."
Further to Badgers point, the Germans also seem to realise the importance of timing:
"“If we wait until intensive care is full, it is too late,” Health Minister Jens Spahn, who last week tested positive for the virus, told broadcaster SWR."
https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-germany-merkel/merkel-wants-to
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:35 - Oct 28 with 1891 views | Mullet |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:15 - Oct 28 by BlueBadger |
It *will* happen here at some point.
Again.
At a point in the graph of infections and cases is spiralling out of control, meaning we're locked down longer than we could have been.
Again.
Only this time, we'll also have the advantages of winter pressures on hospitals, care homes who've stung one already digging their heels in and delaying all sorts of discharges and a public who've lost all respect for the people making the rules because the people making the rules don't follow them themselves.
We are sleepwalking into a catastrophic winter period. I know of two covid related deaths(plus a couple hanging in the balance) at [redacted] our the past weekend alone. |
I can only really go on what's happening at work and in my local area and there seems to be complacency merged with a sense of "I can't be inconvenienced any more" creeping in.
Some of the rules around who goes home, who isolates and whatnot just seem to be about putting the best possible face on things. Likewise the amount of people not wearing masks, not sanitising hands etc and the way in which all the usual winter coughs, colds and bugs are rampant makes me think it's going to be harder to cope with this time around.
When I did some study on the Spanish flu epidemic it was startling how the second wave was far worse and a lot of the same reasons and attitudes cropped up. | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:40 - Oct 28 with 1871 views | ElderGrizzly |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:10 - Oct 28 by Mullet |
I have a genunine fear that Boris will refuse to do it again because how how it will play in the media etc.
Not that I believe it should be done unless the science says so, but it seems like it will be necessary doesn't it? We seem to have taken our eye off the death toll a bit when it was the focal point of the news cycle early on. |
View from within the civil service on my side of the fence, is we will see national lockdown by stealth of local lockdown. So Boris can declare there isn't a national lockdown, but it will be what we effectively have.
Basically we'll have Tier 3 across most of the country by mid-December and probably Tier 4 by mid-November in some of the current hot-spots. [Post edited 28 Oct 2020 14:44]
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:45 - Oct 28 with 1855 views | StokieBlue |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:40 - Oct 28 by ElderGrizzly |
View from within the civil service on my side of the fence, is we will see national lockdown by stealth of local lockdown. So Boris can declare there isn't a national lockdown, but it will be what we effectively have.
Basically we'll have Tier 3 across most of the country by mid-December and probably Tier 4 by mid-November in some of the current hot-spots. [Post edited 28 Oct 2020 14:44]
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You can see this process is already underway with daily announcements of new tier 3 zones. I assume tier 4 will be closure of all pubs and restaurants and possibly the schools?
It all seems a bit pointless to try and make the perception of not having a national lockdown by using the tiers when other countries looking like they are going to just implement national lockdowns.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:47 - Oct 28 with 1835 views | ElderGrizzly |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:45 - Oct 28 by StokieBlue |
You can see this process is already underway with daily announcements of new tier 3 zones. I assume tier 4 will be closure of all pubs and restaurants and possibly the schools?
It all seems a bit pointless to try and make the perception of not having a national lockdown by using the tiers when other countries looking like they are going to just implement national lockdowns.
SB |
"It all seems a bit pointless" sums up this Governments approach | | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:48 - Oct 28 with 1837 views | Mullet |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:40 - Oct 28 by ElderGrizzly |
View from within the civil service on my side of the fence, is we will see national lockdown by stealth of local lockdown. So Boris can declare there isn't a national lockdown, but it will be what we effectively have.
Basically we'll have Tier 3 across most of the country by mid-December and probably Tier 4 by mid-November in some of the current hot-spots. [Post edited 28 Oct 2020 14:44]
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That was catnip for conspiracy nuts last week. I noticed that the reason Tier 3 is the highest right now is so they can add tiers has gone from snark to inevitability. | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:49 - Oct 28 with 1822 views | ElderGrizzly |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:48 - Oct 28 by Mullet |
That was catnip for conspiracy nuts last week. I noticed that the reason Tier 3 is the highest right now is so they can add tiers has gone from snark to inevitability. |
Tier 4 is actively being discussed this week. | | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:51 - Oct 28 with 1819 views | StokieBlue |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:49 - Oct 28 by ElderGrizzly |
Tier 4 is actively being discussed this week. |
It seemed obvious that they would add more tiers, to be honest it's probably sensible if they aren't going to just have a national lockdown.
Seems some in Germany aren't pleased with the government advice:
Germany’s Robert Koch Institute for infectious disease control was targeted again by hackers on Wednesday, days after its headquarters was damaged in an arson attack, the Interior Ministry said.
Germany’s cybersecurity watchdog detected a distributed denial of service attack on the health agency’s website, Reuters reported. It followed a similar cyber strike on Oct. 22.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:59 - Oct 28 with 1796 views | pointofblue |
Common sense would have been to initiate a national lockdown around half term, maybe last week, this week and next week with the schools closed next week too. Get it out of the way before cases rise too high.
Obviously this means furlough would have to be re-instigated for this period, especially for the hospitality industry, and the key would be to implement a professional and local track and trace using the time bought by the lockdown to do so. Not, as stated, that that is foolproof considering Germany is now struggling once again but surely we should be learning about processes from South Korea, who seem to be managing this far more effectively? |  |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:02 - Oct 28 with 1785 views | HARRY10 |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:28 - Oct 28 by hype313 |
Agreed, but the problem is the Germans had by all accounts the best Track and Trace system in the western world and they are now experiencing huge numbers, for us to implement something similar would take far too long, and how effective would it actually be if the Germans are struggling with the rate of infections. |
It does suggest that with the different re-actions in different countries. there is not that much that can be done to stop the spread.
At the moment it is about keeping the infection rate as low as possible so as not to swamp the hospitals, that's about it.
Other than to avoid panicking the 'not too bright' who will start hoarding food again, by buying everything they can and emptying the supermarkets | | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:06 - Oct 28 with 1772 views | hype313 |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:02 - Oct 28 by HARRY10 |
It does suggest that with the different re-actions in different countries. there is not that much that can be done to stop the spread.
At the moment it is about keeping the infection rate as low as possible so as not to swamp the hospitals, that's about it.
Other than to avoid panicking the 'not too bright' who will start hoarding food again, by buying everything they can and emptying the supermarkets |
Unfortunately bar a severe, and I mean sever lockdown like Melbourne have just gone through (11 weeks just won't happen here), or in China where if you step out of line you will get shot, then everything else seems futile to manage it, I genuinely don't know the best way to handle it. | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:19 - Oct 28 with 1737 views | giant_stow |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:40 - Oct 28 by ElderGrizzly |
View from within the civil service on my side of the fence, is we will see national lockdown by stealth of local lockdown. So Boris can declare there isn't a national lockdown, but it will be what we effectively have.
Basically we'll have Tier 3 across most of the country by mid-December and probably Tier 4 by mid-November in some of the current hot-spots. [Post edited 28 Oct 2020 14:44]
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What do you reckon tier 4 will look like? Schools shut too? | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:22 - Oct 28 with 1727 views | HARRY10 |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:06 - Oct 28 by hype313 |
Unfortunately bar a severe, and I mean sever lockdown like Melbourne have just gone through (11 weeks just won't happen here), or in China where if you step out of line you will get shot, then everything else seems futile to manage it, I genuinely don't know the best way to handle it. |
Maybe a bit more evidence being made public on the effects this is having on hospitals
A poster campaign showing overworked NHS staff with the strap line
'don't make it harder for us'
Use the saying that 'when they come for you, there won't be a hospital bed'
Offering furlough pay for older non skilled workers to be replaced by younger workers who are less vulnerable and are seeing their employment chances dwindle by the day - however the fear there, being older workers might not get their jobs back.
At the moment there does not seem to be a clear strategy, and people are seeing so many anomalies (Cummings) fox hunting but not football, millions wasted on failed governments schemes but no money for kids food that it is not surprising that we have a fragmented society that is sliding towards a fck you mentality, I'll do what I want. | | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:26 - Oct 28 with 1706 views | pointofblue |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:19 - Oct 28 by giant_stow |
What do you reckon tier 4 will look like? Schools shut too? |
All pubs shut but Wetherspoons. | |
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