| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns 14:04 - Oct 28 with 3770 views | StokieBlue |
Seems that both France and Germany are going to announce some form of national lockdowns either today or tomorrow. Cases in France have rocketed (50,000 yesterday) and here in the UK we are at the rolling average of 200 deaths that was predicted by Vallance about 3 weeks early (although the prediction on doubling cases hasn't held true possibly due to local lockdowns).
Anyone not expecting there to be a national lockdown here sooner rather than later? Or do people think they will just keep putting areas into Tier 3 on a regular basis?
SB |  |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:27 - Oct 28 with 1634 views | ElderGrizzly |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:19 - Oct 28 by giant_stow |
What do you reckon tier 4 will look like? Schools shut too? |
Basically where we were last time in March, with pubs, non-essential shops shut etc but potentially with schools staggering year groups this time rather than fully shut. |  | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:29 - Oct 28 with 1633 views | J2BLUE |
Something has changed in the last few weeks. People have got complacent in Ipswich. Supermarkets are letting more people in. People are wearing their masks incorrectly and leaving half of their nose out or just pulling them down to talk or take breaths.
I'm not sure how many people will take any notice of new restrictions. Some of the fear has gone despite it being as dangerous as ever.
I feel for essential workers. It seems the government is trying to make it as hard as possible for you and an ever growing number of people are doing the same. |  |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:36 - Oct 28 with 1617 views | LankHenners |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:25 - Oct 28 by BlueBadger |
Trouble is, with the Classic Dom incident, amongst others, coupled toothed incidences of corruption, incompetent and plain out spite, the government's moral authority on this is completely gone and it would be much, much harder to implement and police now.
In an ideal world, we'd shut down for three weeks and use the time to actually sort out track and test and plan properly for re-opening. But that won't happen. |
That is it really isn't it?
I take the points mentioned above about a good track and trace not necessarily being able to keep on top of everything, but it was understood, if not explicitly stated, that the first lockdown would buy the government time to get the testing, tracking and tracing mechanisms up and running so we would all see some way to return to *some* normality, even at a gradual pace. By and large the public probably feel like they kept their side of the deal whilst feeling like the government failed/refused to hold theirs, instead choosing to dish out big contracts to Serco and other assorted ghouls, forcing people back out into the city/town centres then blaming them when infections inevitably rose.
Dismally a lot of the polling shows lots of people still blame 'the public' rather than the government for all this, but even that lot still probably feel they can push the boundaries themselves and any negative consequences are someone else's fault. |  |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:40 - Oct 28 with 1609 views | HARRY10 |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:29 - Oct 28 by J2BLUE |
Something has changed in the last few weeks. People have got complacent in Ipswich. Supermarkets are letting more people in. People are wearing their masks incorrectly and leaving half of their nose out or just pulling them down to talk or take breaths.
I'm not sure how many people will take any notice of new restrictions. Some of the fear has gone despite it being as dangerous as ever.
I feel for essential workers. It seems the government is trying to make it as hard as possible for you and an ever growing number of people are doing the same. |
It needs a change in attitude.
Not that long back drink/driving/ was seen as almost acceptable and you were a bit if a 'jack the 'lad. Just as the smoking ban was seen as an horrendous imposition, an attack on personal liberty.
Currently we have a thought among many that not sticking to the guidelines is 'putting it to the man'. You are some sort of freedom fighter cocking a snook at the government.
When in reality you are merely causing more strain on the NHS. I have yet to read of any previous covid denier refusing treatment when they did contract the virus.
"Hospital is not for me, I always denied it existed''
So if you expect a bed and treatment for yourself or family members etc then do your best not to fill the beds now. |  | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:54 - Oct 28 with 1579 views | Ftnfwest |
don't France only test about half as much as us as well? Which is frightening if so. |  | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:56 - Oct 28 with 1573 views | giant_stow |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:27 - Oct 28 by ElderGrizzly |
Basically where we were last time in March, with pubs, non-essential shops shut etc but potentially with schools staggering year groups this time rather than fully shut. |
cheers - adds up. |  |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:56 - Oct 28 with 1573 views | Ryorry |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:29 - Oct 28 by J2BLUE |
Something has changed in the last few weeks. People have got complacent in Ipswich. Supermarkets are letting more people in. People are wearing their masks incorrectly and leaving half of their nose out or just pulling them down to talk or take breaths.
I'm not sure how many people will take any notice of new restrictions. Some of the fear has gone despite it being as dangerous as ever.
I feel for essential workers. It seems the government is trying to make it as hard as possible for you and an ever growing number of people are doing the same. |
Few people bother to keep social distance any more - even some lovely local trades people who know individuals that are shielding just forget - garage mechanic who fitted new battery on my car yesterday bent right down to open window on my side to speak - I'd have jumped out to talk if I'd known he was going to do that! |  |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:57 - Oct 28 with 1573 views | giant_stow |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:29 - Oct 28 by J2BLUE |
Something has changed in the last few weeks. People have got complacent in Ipswich. Supermarkets are letting more people in. People are wearing their masks incorrectly and leaving half of their nose out or just pulling them down to talk or take breaths.
I'm not sure how many people will take any notice of new restrictions. Some of the fear has gone despite it being as dangerous as ever.
I feel for essential workers. It seems the government is trying to make it as hard as possible for you and an ever growing number of people are doing the same. |
Oddly enough, the supermarkets round my way have just started making people queue again, but overall you;re right I think. | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:00 - Oct 28 with 1565 views | J2BLUE |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:56 - Oct 28 by Ryorry |
Few people bother to keep social distance any more - even some lovely local trades people who know individuals that are shielding just forget - garage mechanic who fitted new battery on my car yesterday bent right down to open window on my side to speak - I'd have jumped out to talk if I'd known he was going to do that! |
There is a certain age demographic who i've found are the worst for standing about three inches away from you. I don't dare say which though! | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:03 - Oct 28 with 1560 views | HARRY10 |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:54 - Oct 28 by Ftnfwest |
don't France only test about half as much as us as well? Which is frightening if so. |
The figure is correct, but it is more a case if having a targetted testing approach.
"Dr Lionel Barrand, president of the jeunes biologists (young biologists) union thinks less testing in France may be a positive as tests become more targeted.
He told news source Europe 1: “At the beginning of September there was a lot of anxiety. In our laboratories more than 50% of tests were not recommended [by doctors]. For example, we were testing a whole company when one positive case had been detected, even when people had not been in contact and everyone wore masks.
“We tested whole crèches as soon as someone had a runny nose, and all contacts of contacts in schools.”
Dr Barrand believes less widespread testing will allow more testing for priority cases and faster results, as laboratories are less overwhelmed." | | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:32 - Oct 28 with 1517 views | Mookamoo |
Maybe now we can start thinking about doing what is right, rather than fixating on a day at the end of December where we pretend to celebrate a child wizard. |  | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:43 - Oct 28 with 1498 views | giant_stow |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:32 - Oct 28 by Mookamoo |
Maybe now we can start thinking about doing what is right, rather than fixating on a day at the end of December where we pretend to celebrate a child wizard. |
While I take your point, I can see why Christmas is an important date (and not just because I'm an agnostic, leaning to religious) just for the country's morale. Even for many non-Christian bods, its an important holiday and festival. | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:46 - Oct 28 with 1489 views | StokieBlue |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:10 - Oct 28 by Mullet |
I have a genunine fear that Boris will refuse to do it again because how how it will play in the media etc.
Not that I believe it should be done unless the science says so, but it seems like it will be necessary doesn't it? We seem to have taken our eye off the death toll a bit when it was the focal point of the news cycle early on. |
They just released the deaths for today and it's 310 so with the trend from yesterday and today it's going to be more than 2000 per week.
As you say, the deaths figures seem to have lost focus and generally things are cited in number of cases.
SB | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:54 - Oct 28 with 1470 views | WicklowBlue |
Ireland is at Level 5 for 6 weeks now, people being asked to stay at home, only exercise within 5kms, all non essential retails closed (large supermarkets have had to cordon off clothes sections etc) but schools remain open. The plan behind this is to save Xmas, if companies can survive until early December! |  | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:54 - Oct 28 with 1468 views | StokieBlue |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:43 - Oct 28 by giant_stow |
While I take your point, I can see why Christmas is an important date (and not just because I'm an agnostic, leaning to religious) just for the country's morale. Even for many non-Christian bods, its an important holiday and festival. |
It's an important date but important dates for other religions have been cancelled (Eid for instance).
It's obviously good for moral and mental health to meet up for Christmas but a typical gathering is going to break nearly every one of the existing rules. Off the top of my head:
- No more than 6 people meeting up
- No travelling from Tier 3
- No household mixing inside (tier 2 and tier 3)
If things are under control then perhaps it will all be fine but if they are like they are now then having Christmas will cause a huge explosion of cases given people will be coming from tier 3 to other tiers, mixing indoors in groups over 6 and then heading back to all corners of the country. Another factor to consider is that people from all over the country are going to be meeting older and vulnerable people.
It's not nice but I've already warned my parents that Christmas is almost certainly going to be Zoom based this year.
SB | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:57 - Oct 28 with 1462 views | HARRY10 |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:46 - Oct 28 by StokieBlue |
They just released the deaths for today and it's 310 so with the trend from yesterday and today it's going to be more than 2000 per week.
As you say, the deaths figures seem to have lost focus and generally things are cited in number of cases.
SB |
deaths don't take up hospital beds - quite the opposite usually
the Nightingale hospitals are a great back up, if there is enough staff to run them
unfortunately the Tories removed bursaries and are charging non UK NHS staff for using..........the NHS, so it should not be a surprise to find that there are, and will be, staff shortages again this winter [Post edited 28 Oct 2020 17:17]
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 17:04 - Oct 28 with 1451 views | Mookamoo |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:43 - Oct 28 by giant_stow |
While I take your point, I can see why Christmas is an important date (and not just because I'm an agnostic, leaning to religious) just for the country's morale. Even for many non-Christian bods, its an important holiday and festival. |
They should say now that there will be a mini-lockdown over Christmas irrespective of where we are and give those who wish to celebrate the religious element time to sort out a way to do so.
Making assumptions... If a Tier 4 is introduced in the next 2 weeks or so (after most of us have moved into 2 or 3), then you would think that will last a minimum of 6 weeks. That will take us to mid December - just in time for people to think we can all now get together like we mistakingly did in the Summer. All this talk of saving Christmas is just making things worse. | | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 17:34 - Oct 28 with 1415 views | Ace_High1 |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 16:32 - Oct 28 by Mookamoo |
Maybe now we can start thinking about doing what is right, rather than fixating on a day at the end of December where we pretend to celebrate a child wizard. |
I agree with the general point.
The amount of people on the news or when they do the press conferences, "but what about Christmas, will we be back to normal" are in complete denial and the Government for wanting to try and be the heroes and get a cheap headline won't front up and tell people the truth.
Forget Christmas this year, just like everything else has been cancelled/postponed. Much better to come out and say it rather than string everyone along and then on 20th December announce further measures.
Admittedly Christmas is not a bother for me, couldn't care less but I just think people should be prepared for it now.
This winter was always going to be the worst time with the virus. |  | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 19:14 - Oct 28 with 1368 views | Ryorry |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:36 - Oct 28 by LankHenners |
That is it really isn't it?
I take the points mentioned above about a good track and trace not necessarily being able to keep on top of everything, but it was understood, if not explicitly stated, that the first lockdown would buy the government time to get the testing, tracking and tracing mechanisms up and running so we would all see some way to return to *some* normality, even at a gradual pace. By and large the public probably feel like they kept their side of the deal whilst feeling like the government failed/refused to hold theirs, instead choosing to dish out big contracts to Serco and other assorted ghouls, forcing people back out into the city/town centres then blaming them when infections inevitably rose.
Dismally a lot of the polling shows lots of people still blame 'the public' rather than the government for all this, but even that lot still probably feel they can push the boundaries themselves and any negative consequences are someone else's fault. |
"Dismally a lot of the polling shows lots of people still blame 'the public' rather than the government for all this, but even that lot still probably feel they can push the boundaries themselves and any negative consequences are someone else's fault."
Well when a young-ish couple walk up behind you as you're bending over putting recycling on kerbside, then when only 12 inches away, say loudly "hello, are you struggling?" - yes, I'll blame them! (It's a long, straight, isolated lane, there were no vehicles or other people around, they could easily have crossed to the other side to keep social distance). | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 23:39 - Oct 28 with 1281 views | Edmundo |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:22 - Oct 28 by BlueBadger |
The post lockdown surge in overdoes is showing no sign in let-up as well. Saturday night I had three young people('young' being defined here as 'under 50') on my caseload in various states of 'am I worried enough to get ITU involved here'.
Somehow we kept all of them out of ITU but it was touch and go with the youngest one(who was only 20). |
That is so sad. Young people are not bullet proof. This is all about so much more than 1 virus now. |  |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 23:45 - Oct 28 with 1273 views | Edmundo |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 15:36 - Oct 28 by LankHenners |
That is it really isn't it?
I take the points mentioned above about a good track and trace not necessarily being able to keep on top of everything, but it was understood, if not explicitly stated, that the first lockdown would buy the government time to get the testing, tracking and tracing mechanisms up and running so we would all see some way to return to *some* normality, even at a gradual pace. By and large the public probably feel like they kept their side of the deal whilst feeling like the government failed/refused to hold theirs, instead choosing to dish out big contracts to Serco and other assorted ghouls, forcing people back out into the city/town centres then blaming them when infections inevitably rose.
Dismally a lot of the polling shows lots of people still blame 'the public' rather than the government for all this, but even that lot still probably feel they can push the boundaries themselves and any negative consequences are someone else's fault. |
I think you've hit the nail on the head there. | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 10:09 - Oct 29 with 1178 views | gazzer1999 |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 14:35 - Oct 28 by StokieBlue |
This is a very good point, there seems to be a threshold whereby no matter how good the track and trace system it cannot keep up with exponential growth:
"Almost all regions of Germany face an exponential increase in infection rates, said the document to be discussed, and local health authorities can no longer trace all infections."
Further to Badgers point, the Germans also seem to realise the importance of timing:
"“If we wait until intensive care is full, it is too late,” Health Minister Jens Spahn, who last week tested positive for the virus, told broadcaster SWR."
https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-germany-merkel/merkel-wants-to
SB |
https://www.vox.com/21495327/covid-19-germany-coronavirus-cases-deaths |  | | |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 10:16 - Oct 29 with 1168 views | StokieBlue |
Can you expand on your point rather than just posting a link?
That article is two weeks out of date and describes how things worked before exponential growth started. Germany have done very well but I think the quotes in my post show how even an excellent track and trace can't deal with exponential (or even a rapid) increase in cases.
SB | |
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| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 11:44 - Oct 29 with 1133 views | bluelagos |
| France and Germany heading for national lockdowns on 10:16 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
Can you expand on your point rather than just posting a link?
That article is two weeks out of date and describes how things worked before exponential growth started. Germany have done very well but I think the quotes in my post show how even an excellent track and trace can't deal with exponential (or even a rapid) increase in cases.
SB |
Small point of order. People misuse "exponential growth" a lot. Even when a disease is reducing (R less than 1) it is still exponential growth. It just happens to be reducing rather than increasing. Whatever the rate of R is, the growth is still exponential. |  |
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