| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? 17:16 - Dec 7 with 3664 views | Coastalblue |
Just wondered what people's ideas of our short term future are if the vaccines work as hoped?
I get the feeling that many people seem to think that by next summer we'll be back to life as it was up until this year. I don't see that, I think even with succesful vaccines we've probably got another disrupted year or two before things look like heading back to the way they were.
I think masks, social distancing and all that stuff is likely to carry on through most of next year and it will probably be 2022 before things really start to go back to how they were before (and hopefull a bit better with some things)
Perhaps it's just because this year has had such a massive impact on me personally that I'm finding it hard to feel too optimistic about the immediate future. I'm lucky that I didn't lose any friends or loved ones, my primary source of income disapeared literally overnight with lockdown and have been struggling by ever since. |  |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:16 - Dec 7 with 1913 views | factual_blue |
I'm hoping for a second head, and built-in GPS from the microchip in the vaccine. |  |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:21 - Dec 7 with 1902 views | Coastalblue |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:16 - Dec 7 by factual_blue |
I'm hoping for a second head, and built-in GPS from the microchip in the vaccine. |
Why? You won't even know about it, your brain will have been wiped and your DNA altered to turn you into a man/pony hybrid for towing trolleys round enormous Amazon warehouses. | |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:28 - Dec 7 with 1875 views | J2BLUE |
I feel like people are being far too pessimistic. If the Oxford vaccine gets approved, and it probably will before the end of this year according to Dr John Campbell, we are all likely to have been vaccinated by the end of May (I think that is quite a conservative estimate as well) and life will be back to 'almost normal' by July 1st. You won't be able to jump on a plane to countries which haven't had mass roll out of the vaccine but life in the UK should be back to normal. We can see other countries like Australia largely living as normal in most areas as there is no community transmission.
For your own mental health I would advise you to ignore people who post endlessly negative stuff about how it's going to be years*. I can't recommend Dr John Campbell's Youtube videos enough. Someone who is positive (but also factual, and will tell you if there things to be concerned about such as the US numbers at the moment), accurate and has a genuine medical background and can explain what is happening rather than people on a forum who seem to revel in dire predictions.
*Yes the WHO said it would be years 'for the world' but that will not apply to countries who achieve herd immunity via a vaccine if it is carefully managed. |  |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:35 - Dec 7 with 1839 views | bluelagos |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:28 - Dec 7 by J2BLUE |
I feel like people are being far too pessimistic. If the Oxford vaccine gets approved, and it probably will before the end of this year according to Dr John Campbell, we are all likely to have been vaccinated by the end of May (I think that is quite a conservative estimate as well) and life will be back to 'almost normal' by July 1st. You won't be able to jump on a plane to countries which haven't had mass roll out of the vaccine but life in the UK should be back to normal. We can see other countries like Australia largely living as normal in most areas as there is no community transmission.
For your own mental health I would advise you to ignore people who post endlessly negative stuff about how it's going to be years*. I can't recommend Dr John Campbell's Youtube videos enough. Someone who is positive (but also factual, and will tell you if there things to be concerned about such as the US numbers at the moment), accurate and has a genuine medical background and can explain what is happening rather than people on a forum who seem to revel in dire predictions.
*Yes the WHO said it would be years 'for the world' but that will not apply to countries who achieve herd immunity via a vaccine if it is carefully managed. |
"You won't be able to jump on a plane to countries which haven't had mass roll out of the vaccine"
Why not? If you are immune why would you not be allowed to travel? You can travel to many places (with a PCR test) now.
I know they don't yet know whether the vaccine fully prevents you from being infectious but I'd still expect many places to actively open up and encourage visits asap. |  |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:37 - Dec 7 with 1830 views | jeera |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:28 - Dec 7 by J2BLUE |
I feel like people are being far too pessimistic. If the Oxford vaccine gets approved, and it probably will before the end of this year according to Dr John Campbell, we are all likely to have been vaccinated by the end of May (I think that is quite a conservative estimate as well) and life will be back to 'almost normal' by July 1st. You won't be able to jump on a plane to countries which haven't had mass roll out of the vaccine but life in the UK should be back to normal. We can see other countries like Australia largely living as normal in most areas as there is no community transmission.
For your own mental health I would advise you to ignore people who post endlessly negative stuff about how it's going to be years*. I can't recommend Dr John Campbell's Youtube videos enough. Someone who is positive (but also factual, and will tell you if there things to be concerned about such as the US numbers at the moment), accurate and has a genuine medical background and can explain what is happening rather than people on a forum who seem to revel in dire predictions.
*Yes the WHO said it would be years 'for the world' but that will not apply to countries who achieve herd immunity via a vaccine if it is carefully managed. |
Who's being negative?
I am optimistically expecting this:
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:38 - Dec 7 with 1824 views | bluelagos |
I think we will be in tiered lockdowns until end March (Or when all over 70s are vaccinated) and then they gradually reduce the restrictions until the summer when we will be good to go (When everyone who wants a vaccine has had one)
Pure speculation and based on nothing other than reading how Boris and co wish to have as little restrictions as possible whilst not wanting to see the Virus overload the a stretched NHS. | |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:38 - Dec 7 with 1832 views | StokieBlue |
To be honest there is an extremely good case to be made for using masks every winter from now on.
They use masks routinely in southeast Asia because it works in preventing transmission to others. Look at the low cases of other respiratory illness this year when there has been heavy mask use preventing the spread of flu as well as C19.
I don't think it's much of a hardship to wear a mask when shopping for 30 minutes or whatever given the huge potential upside.
SB |  | | |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:40 - Dec 7 with 1809 views | J2BLUE |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:35 - Dec 7 by bluelagos |
"You won't be able to jump on a plane to countries which haven't had mass roll out of the vaccine"
Why not? If you are immune why would you not be allowed to travel? You can travel to many places (with a PCR test) now.
I know they don't yet know whether the vaccine fully prevents you from being infectious but I'd still expect many places to actively open up and encourage visits asap. |
Well you may be right. I was mainly talking about the countries who are quite late in the vaccine line who might still be struggling to contain it and therefore would be a risk to everyone including those vaccinated as it offers no guarantees but i'm guessing. You may well be right that these places open up and it will be personal choice.
Lets hope so. Normality can't come soon enough. Sadly I think we'll have one final spike to deal with after Christmas from the Christmas period which is why I wish the government would really make it clear what the cost is likely to be and how this would be over much sooner and save many lives if people gave it a miss for a year. Maybe they are waiting to see the full fallout from Thanksgiving? | |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:41 - Dec 7 with 1819 views | Herbivore |
Most of the science bods I've seen, who know much more about this than me, seem to think we'll see things starting to ease from the Spring with easing going on until the end of Summer at which point we should be close to something much closer to normal. Full normality might take a little longer, but to be honest I'd happily take how things were over this Summer. You could do pretty much anything, just needed some sensible precautions to be followed. |  |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:41 - Dec 7 with 1800 views | jeera |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:38 - Dec 7 by StokieBlue |
To be honest there is an extremely good case to be made for using masks every winter from now on.
They use masks routinely in southeast Asia because it works in preventing transmission to others. Look at the low cases of other respiratory illness this year when there has been heavy mask use preventing the spread of flu as well as C19.
I don't think it's much of a hardship to wear a mask when shopping for 30 minutes or whatever given the huge potential upside.
SB |
Agree, although it would take quite a cultural change, for those concerned about the economy taking some basic steps could help keep a significant number of the nation's workforce at work.
Not to mention washing hands, which you would like to think people do anyway, but plenty of the dirty so & so's don't. [Post edited 7 Dec 2020 17:41]
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:41 - Dec 7 with 1796 views | bluelagos |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:38 - Dec 7 by StokieBlue |
To be honest there is an extremely good case to be made for using masks every winter from now on.
They use masks routinely in southeast Asia because it works in preventing transmission to others. Look at the low cases of other respiratory illness this year when there has been heavy mask use preventing the spread of flu as well as C19.
I don't think it's much of a hardship to wear a mask when shopping for 30 minutes or whatever given the huge potential upside.
SB |
Nah, Boris is a libertarian and no way would he sign up to that. Suspect a minority of the population will continue to wear them, especially in high risk places like crowded public transport.
Many a time I've been to London for the footie or a night out and picked up a cold. Wouldn't object if they were retained for buses/trains but not to keen on anything else myself. | |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:42 - Dec 7 with 1798 views | footers |
Dunno about that, but if they made the vaccines more fun to take like recreational drugs, then maybe people would be more supportive of having it. Come on, boffins. |  |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:42 - Dec 7 with 1791 views | J2BLUE |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:38 - Dec 7 by StokieBlue |
To be honest there is an extremely good case to be made for using masks every winter from now on.
They use masks routinely in southeast Asia because it works in preventing transmission to others. Look at the low cases of other respiratory illness this year when there has been heavy mask use preventing the spread of flu as well as C19.
I don't think it's much of a hardship to wear a mask when shopping for 30 minutes or whatever given the huge potential upside.
SB |
Agree. I don't mind wearing a mask at all. That kind of thing would be welcome IMO. | |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:44 - Dec 7 with 1779 views | bluelagos |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:42 - Dec 7 by footers |
Dunno about that, but if they made the vaccines more fun to take like recreational drugs, then maybe people would be more supportive of having it. Come on, boffins. |
Go to your Doctor's clinic and share a spliff with the local GP. Would be an interesting one :-) | |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:44 - Dec 7 with 1779 views | jeera |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:41 - Dec 7 by bluelagos |
Nah, Boris is a libertarian and no way would he sign up to that. Suspect a minority of the population will continue to wear them, especially in high risk places like crowded public transport.
Many a time I've been to London for the footie or a night out and picked up a cold. Wouldn't object if they were retained for buses/trains but not to keen on anything else myself. |
I wouldn't want to wear a sodding mask for a football match, let alone a night out, (although there might be a separate argument for that), but yes, as you say, on crowded transport, I don't see why not. | |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:45 - Dec 7 with 1771 views | StokieBlue |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:41 - Dec 7 by Herbivore |
Most of the science bods I've seen, who know much more about this than me, seem to think we'll see things starting to ease from the Spring with easing going on until the end of Summer at which point we should be close to something much closer to normal. Full normality might take a little longer, but to be honest I'd happily take how things were over this Summer. You could do pretty much anything, just needed some sensible precautions to be followed. |
It's all going to be dependent on how many people are waiting to see if their neighbours grow a second head before they decide to have the vaccine.
There needs to be a certain level of take-up in order to get any form of "herd" immunity. If the take-up is only something like 50% it's not going to be enough to prevent the virus still affecting a lot of people.
We then get into debates on whether there should be vaccination cards showing who can do things and who can't and it could rather unpleasant.
I'm going to be optimistic though and assume take-up will be very good and that the louder voices are in the minority. Assuming that I expect tiered easing of restrictions in line with the tiered vaccine priority. I think it's reasonable to expect to have a good summer and then a far more normal winter.
It's also going to depend on the longevity of the protection from the vaccine, something that we really don't know much about at the moment.
SB | | | |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:46 - Dec 7 with 1753 views | bluelagos |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:44 - Dec 7 by jeera |
I wouldn't want to wear a sodding mask for a football match, let alone a night out, (although there might be a separate argument for that), but yes, as you say, on crowded transport, I don't see why not. |
Where my head is at.
Me and Jeera have sorted it, the rest of you can stand down.
Now Jeera, how can we sort the Brexit negotiations? | |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:47 - Dec 7 with 1750 views | footers |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:44 - Dec 7 by bluelagos |
Go to your Doctor's clinic and share a spliff with the local GP. Would be an interesting one :-) |
The vaccine companies missed a trick by not creating a subsidiary black market for once the vaccine has been used. It's sloppy decision-making. | |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:47 - Dec 7 with 1745 views | StokieBlue |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:41 - Dec 7 by bluelagos |
Nah, Boris is a libertarian and no way would he sign up to that. Suspect a minority of the population will continue to wear them, especially in high risk places like crowded public transport.
Many a time I've been to London for the footie or a night out and picked up a cold. Wouldn't object if they were retained for buses/trains but not to keen on anything else myself. |
Can I ask why you wouldn't be keen?
Wearing a mask for 20 minutes in the supermarket or any other enclosed space is really not a hardship for the individual but is a gift to the rest of society. It would reduce the strain on the NHS greatly over the winter.
It seems a total no-brainer to me.
SB | | | |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:49 - Dec 7 with 1731 views | StokieBlue |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:44 - Dec 7 by jeera |
I wouldn't want to wear a sodding mask for a football match, let alone a night out, (although there might be a separate argument for that), but yes, as you say, on crowded transport, I don't see why not. |
Why would you wear it at any outdoor event.
This is specifically indoors, where most transmission will take place. I am not advocating wearing the all the time (we don't even wear them outdoors now), just in enclosed spaces.
As for a night out - people aren't wearing masks in pubs at the moment.
It's more a thing to do when the circumstances permit, which is the case in many indoor venues like shopping or transport.
SB | | | |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:51 - Dec 7 with 1728 views | Illinoisblue |
Agree with you; seems like masks and distancing will be the norm for a while. I think getting back to where we were will be a very gradual process. And that assumes the vaccines actually work and work well. |  |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:51 - Dec 7 with 1710 views | bluelagos |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:47 - Dec 7 by StokieBlue |
Can I ask why you wouldn't be keen?
Wearing a mask for 20 minutes in the supermarket or any other enclosed space is really not a hardship for the individual but is a gift to the rest of society. It would reduce the strain on the NHS greatly over the winter.
It seems a total no-brainer to me.
SB |
Course you can ask :-)
I find wearing them claustrophobic / unpleasant.
I also don't like the inability to convey a simple smile.
I do wear them when I am required to, but I don't like wearing them and I only wear them when it is mandated.
I am also happy that they are mandated atm given the need to protect the vulnerable. | |
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:53 - Dec 7 with 1703 views | StokieBlue |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:51 - Dec 7 by bluelagos |
Course you can ask :-)
I find wearing them claustrophobic / unpleasant.
I also don't like the inability to convey a simple smile.
I do wear them when I am required to, but I don't like wearing them and I only wear them when it is mandated.
I am also happy that they are mandated atm given the need to protect the vulnerable. |
Those are fair points.
The counterpoint is that wearing them indoors in shops and transport will be protecting the vulnerable long into the future. Flu isn't anything like C19 but it could be cut down a lot as well just through something like this.
I don't tend to smile at a lot of people in the supermarket. Guess I'm miserable. I think it will be interesting to see how this develops in society over the next 2 years - I suspect you'll be right and not many will wear masks which will mean that in the end none will wear masks.
It will also be interesting to see if any studies come out showing the initial spread is places like Korea was much lower than in Western countries because people were routinely wearing masks.
SB [Post edited 7 Dec 2020 17:55]
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| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:54 - Dec 7 with 1699 views | BlueBadger |
| What are you expecting if the vaccines are succesful? on 17:44 - Dec 7 by bluelagos |
Go to your Doctor's clinic and share a spliff with the local GP. Would be an interesting one :-) |
Some of the referrals we see from GPs at the assessment unit I do wonder if that's what's been happening already... [Post edited 7 Dec 2020 18:06]
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| Bill Gates to telling everyone exactly what they've had for breakfast and when.. on 17:55 - Dec 7 with 1694 views | BlueBadger |
..they've been and had a poo. | |
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