| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire 18:21 - Dec 16 with 2838 views | XYZ |
Another not a good day to be a tory.
Could be the turning point for the liar Johnson. |  | | |  |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 18:23 - Dec 16 with 2175 views | belgablue |
Lib Dems always win by elections then lose the seat at the next election.
I’d even consider voting for them one day, when they stop passionately believing in absolutely nothing.
That being said, Tories deserve a pumping based on their recent conduct. |  |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 18:39 - Dec 16 with 2117 views | Pinewoodblue |
Turnout will be the key. Could understand Tory voters staying away from polling station but surely you would expect this to benefit Labour and not LibDems who had just 10% of the vote last time.
Labour get their support out to vote they, not LibDems, should be the winners. |  |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 18:43 - Dec 16 with 2098 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 18:39 - Dec 16 by Pinewoodblue |
Turnout will be the key. Could understand Tory voters staying away from polling station but surely you would expect this to benefit Labour and not LibDems who had just 10% of the vote last time.
Labour get their support out to vote they, not LibDems, should be the winners. |
Not sure why but the reports were that it was likely to be LibDem. Maybe because it needs such a big swing it would need many of those who voted Tory to change their vote and they are far more likely to go LibDem than Labour?
I suspect it will be held but with a reduced majority. Not sure it is going to make much difference to Boris either. |  |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 19:41 - Dec 16 with 2024 views | tractordownsouth |
I think the Lib Dems will take this one. Despite it being more challenging than their recent win in Chesham and Amersham, with North Shrops being a leave seat where they finished 3rd last time and without HS2 nimbyism to campaign for, their campaign seems to be gaining traction. The fact it's a largely rural seat means that outside the small towns Labour support is minimal and many old-school Tories will likely be less hostile to the Liberal Democrats. Ideally I'd want a Labour win but a bloody nose for the Tories is the main target here.
Like most by-elections it will be down to turnout and with the increased alarm over the virus, I reckon a lot of elderly Tory voters won't want to make the trip outside to vote and they'll lose by a small margin - less than 1k. |  |
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| Lib Dems are now 1.07 on 01:58 - Dec 17 with 1944 views | XYZ |
Oh dear. Maybe there is a progressive alliance?*
* the usual caveats as to duplicitous Lib Dems should be taken as read. | | | |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 04:21 - Dec 17 with 1901 views | HARRY10 |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 18:43 - Dec 16 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Not sure why but the reports were that it was likely to be LibDem. Maybe because it needs such a big swing it would need many of those who voted Tory to change their vote and they are far more likely to go LibDem than Labour?
I suspect it will be held but with a reduced majority. Not sure it is going to make much difference to Boris either. |
LibDems 17,957
Tories 12,032
Lab 3,686
This will be the beginning of the end for the bloated buffoon.
An habitual liar, a serial incompetent and the most corrupt PM for a long, long while.
Bye Bye fat boy | | | |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 06:55 - Dec 17 with 1821 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 19:41 - Dec 16 by tractordownsouth |
I think the Lib Dems will take this one. Despite it being more challenging than their recent win in Chesham and Amersham, with North Shrops being a leave seat where they finished 3rd last time and without HS2 nimbyism to campaign for, their campaign seems to be gaining traction. The fact it's a largely rural seat means that outside the small towns Labour support is minimal and many old-school Tories will likely be less hostile to the Liberal Democrats. Ideally I'd want a Labour win but a bloody nose for the Tories is the main target here.
Like most by-elections it will be down to turnout and with the increased alarm over the virus, I reckon a lot of elderly Tory voters won't want to make the trip outside to vote and they'll lose by a small margin - less than 1k. |
What happened to the Labour vote? Labour came second in Shropshire in the last two elections.
If Starmer wants to win the next election he needs Tories to vote Labour, not Lib Dem. |  |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 07:02 - Dec 17 with 1812 views | hype313 |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 06:55 - Dec 17 by GlasgowBlue |
What happened to the Labour vote? Labour came second in Shropshire in the last two elections.
If Starmer wants to win the next election he needs Tories to vote Labour, not Lib Dem. |
Indeed, terrible night for Boris (he he) but if Starmer has any aspirations to win the next GE, he needs to do far better than this. |  |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 07:15 - Dec 17 with 1768 views | itfcjoe |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 07:02 - Dec 17 by hype313 |
Indeed, terrible night for Boris (he he) but if Starmer has any aspirations to win the next GE, he needs to do far better than this. |
I’ve barely seen anything from Labour on this one, just a token effort so felt almost as though they stepped aside for LDs.
Similar to Blair and Ashdown days of letting each other have clearer runs to beat the Tories |  |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 07:16 - Dec 17 with 1762 views | TractorWood |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 06:55 - Dec 17 by GlasgowBlue |
What happened to the Labour vote? Labour came second in Shropshire in the last two elections.
If Starmer wants to win the next election he needs Tories to vote Labour, not Lib Dem. |
Safe Tory seats are incredibly unlikely to ever go for Labour. Unless there is a compelling and essentially Tory option.
Johnson is a buffoon and an affluent rural area like North Shropshire will be unhappy with the diminishing quality of services and increasing levels of tax. Unpopular thing to say but there needs to a be quality debate about how poorly this country is run at basically every level.
Procurement is riddled with sleaze (despite most people at work not being able to accept gifts over £100), delivery is always delayed despite 10 year consultantions, always over budget, always overly ambitious and underwhelming is the final product (crossrail is going to be 4 years late). Contractors see the Government as a gold plated all day breakfast.
Voting Tory in the country has long been perceived as the safe thing to do - economically, there isn't even a slightly reasonable basis for this anymore.
The Tories will destroy Boris in the next few weeks and install Rishi. We'll get some smooth waffle from another holiday home before the next election and the electorate will fall for the same tripe. Again. |  |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 07:33 - Dec 17 with 1737 views | tractordownsouth |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 06:55 - Dec 17 by GlasgowBlue |
What happened to the Labour vote? Labour came second in Shropshire in the last two elections.
If Starmer wants to win the next election he needs Tories to vote Labour, not Lib Dem. |
I'm not too alarmed, it was never a Labour target and the party only really started campaigning 2 weeks ago after prioritising the Old Bexley and Sidcup result. The swing was fairly good there but again not too much to read into it.
The new Tory MP for Wakefield has a court case coming up in March - if he's found guilty, a seat like that will be the real test. | |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 07:36 - Dec 17 with 1724 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 06:55 - Dec 17 by GlasgowBlue |
What happened to the Labour vote? Labour came second in Shropshire in the last two elections.
If Starmer wants to win the next election he needs Tories to vote Labour, not Lib Dem. |
Corbyn hangover obvs. |  |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 09:14 - Dec 17 with 1641 views | Chrisd |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 06:55 - Dec 17 by GlasgowBlue |
What happened to the Labour vote? Labour came second in Shropshire in the last two elections.
If Starmer wants to win the next election he needs Tories to vote Labour, not Lib Dem. |
Starmer is Labour's problem, he is just so vanilla as a leader and inspires nothing for me. | |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 09:20 - Dec 17 with 1614 views | XYZ |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 06:55 - Dec 17 by GlasgowBlue |
What happened to the Labour vote? Labour came second in Shropshire in the last two elections.
If Starmer wants to win the next election he needs Tories to vote Labour, not Lib Dem. |
lol, do you read the news?
Tories lose one of their safest seat and it's a Labour problem! | | | |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 10:51 - Dec 17 with 1541 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 09:20 - Dec 17 by XYZ |
lol, do you read the news?
Tories lose one of their safest seat and it's a Labour problem! |
Good to see you posting in daylight hours rather than chasing me around the board at 3,30 am like a lovesick teenager. And not for the first time. You are either a vampire or a sad late night drinker.
Yeah, it’s a problem for Labour if they can’t take Tory votes. Labour have come 2nd in that seat for the past 2 elections.
Johnson and the Tories are toast. But it’s hung Parliament territory unless Labour can cut through to disaffected Tories like Blair did.
But you are like Town fans who laugh at Norwich losing in the Premier League whilst Ipswich are stuck mid table in the third division.
[Post edited 17 Dec 2021 10:57]
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 11:06 - Dec 17 with 1495 views | positivity |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 10:51 - Dec 17 by GlasgowBlue |
Good to see you posting in daylight hours rather than chasing me around the board at 3,30 am like a lovesick teenager. And not for the first time. You are either a vampire or a sad late night drinker.
Yeah, it’s a problem for Labour if they can’t take Tory votes. Labour have come 2nd in that seat for the past 2 elections.
Johnson and the Tories are toast. But it’s hung Parliament territory unless Labour can cut through to disaffected Tories like Blair did.
But you are like Town fans who laugh at Norwich losing in the Premier League whilst Ipswich are stuck mid table in the third division.
[Post edited 17 Dec 2021 10:57]
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your analogy doesn't really work with the states of the parties, it's more like:-
we "are like Town fans who laugh at Norwich losing in the Premier League to felixstowe and walton whilst Ipswich are stuck mid table in the third division."
anything other than a tory win or a hung parliament is highly unlikely with the snp's strength in scotland.
labour are likely to need to win in their target seats *and* agree a coalition *and* tories to lose some of their seats to other parties | |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 11:22 - Dec 17 with 1453 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 07:15 - Dec 17 by itfcjoe |
I’ve barely seen anything from Labour on this one, just a token effort so felt almost as though they stepped aside for LDs.
Similar to Blair and Ashdown days of letting each other have clearer runs to beat the Tories |
Generally Blair/ Ashdown gave the the one who had finished second a run at the Tory candidate.
Labour had over 17,000 votes in 2017, down to 12,000 in 2019 and under 4,000 yesterday.
Would have been a better result for Labour if they had come a close second to the Tory candidate.
Looks like the majority of those inclined to vote Labour in a general election either stayed away or thought LibDem candidate had a better chance of winning. | |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 11:28 - Dec 17 with 1435 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 11:06 - Dec 17 by positivity |
your analogy doesn't really work with the states of the parties, it's more like:-
we "are like Town fans who laugh at Norwich losing in the Premier League to felixstowe and walton whilst Ipswich are stuck mid table in the third division."
anything other than a tory win or a hung parliament is highly unlikely with the snp's strength in scotland.
labour are likely to need to win in their target seats *and* agree a coalition *and* tories to lose some of their seats to other parties |
This is the worst government in history. By all logic every seat should be vulnerable. Labour have a strong front bench and have deloused the party of the cranks and racists.
Anyone with a brain can see that Starmer is the complete opposite of Johnson in terms of stature. Labour should be aiming to win the next election. Nit looking to do deals with the SNP.
And if anyone knows their Scottish politics, the SNP and Labour are bigger foes than the Tories and Labour. | |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 11:37 - Dec 17 with 1415 views | mylittletown |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 06:55 - Dec 17 by GlasgowBlue |
What happened to the Labour vote? Labour came second in Shropshire in the last two elections.
If Starmer wants to win the next election he needs Tories to vote Labour, not Lib Dem. |
It is more nuanced than that.
Firstly Starmer needs the Tories to lose seats. Doesn't matter that much if they lose to Labour, the Lib Dems or the Greens. If those three parties win enough seats, Starmer will end up leading a Labour government or an anti-Tory coalition.
Secondly Starmer needs to win his metropolitan educated seats and to try to win back northern/midlands/Scottish/Welsh/southern working town seats.
Labour have little or no chance in prosperous rural seats, even if they finished second last time. The Lib Dems often do have a chance. |  | | |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 11:42 - Dec 17 with 1395 views | XYZ |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 10:51 - Dec 17 by GlasgowBlue |
Good to see you posting in daylight hours rather than chasing me around the board at 3,30 am like a lovesick teenager. And not for the first time. You are either a vampire or a sad late night drinker.
Yeah, it’s a problem for Labour if they can’t take Tory votes. Labour have come 2nd in that seat for the past 2 elections.
Johnson and the Tories are toast. But it’s hung Parliament territory unless Labour can cut through to disaffected Tories like Blair did.
But you are like Town fans who laugh at Norwich losing in the Premier League whilst Ipswich are stuck mid table in the third division.
[Post edited 17 Dec 2021 10:57]
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Your usual personal abuse to deflect. Not sure why you're allowed to get away with it.
The tories get pummeled and it's Labour's problem.
That you dish stuff out like that to people who have been sympathetic to your family problems speaks volumes about your character. | | | |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 11:46 - Dec 17 with 1386 views | positivity |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 11:28 - Dec 17 by GlasgowBlue |
This is the worst government in history. By all logic every seat should be vulnerable. Labour have a strong front bench and have deloused the party of the cranks and racists.
Anyone with a brain can see that Starmer is the complete opposite of Johnson in terms of stature. Labour should be aiming to win the next election. Nit looking to do deals with the SNP.
And if anyone knows their Scottish politics, the SNP and Labour are bigger foes than the Tories and Labour. |
i agree with your first statement. every tory seat should be vulnerable, but not necessarily to labour and they don't need to.
however, the political map is very different to 1997 or even 2005 in terms of scotland, without the safe scottish seats it's much more difficult for labour to win a majority.
i don't foresee a coalition between snp & labour, but could see them supporting a minority labour government on a supply & demand basis | |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 11:48 - Dec 17 with 1376 views | mylittletown |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 11:46 - Dec 17 by positivity |
i agree with your first statement. every tory seat should be vulnerable, but not necessarily to labour and they don't need to.
however, the political map is very different to 1997 or even 2005 in terms of scotland, without the safe scottish seats it's much more difficult for labour to win a majority.
i don't foresee a coalition between snp & labour, but could see them supporting a minority labour government on a supply & demand basis |
Agreed. Don't see how the SNP could enter a Westminster coalition without making another independence referendum a condition. | | | |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 12:11 - Dec 17 with 1322 views | tractordownsouth |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 10:51 - Dec 17 by GlasgowBlue |
Good to see you posting in daylight hours rather than chasing me around the board at 3,30 am like a lovesick teenager. And not for the first time. You are either a vampire or a sad late night drinker.
Yeah, it’s a problem for Labour if they can’t take Tory votes. Labour have come 2nd in that seat for the past 2 elections.
Johnson and the Tories are toast. But it’s hung Parliament territory unless Labour can cut through to disaffected Tories like Blair did.
But you are like Town fans who laugh at Norwich losing in the Premier League whilst Ipswich are stuck mid table in the third division.
[Post edited 17 Dec 2021 10:57]
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A hung parliament is the best possible realistic result at the next election. To get a majority of 1, Starmer needs a swing bigger than Blair managed.
Even in 2010 when Cameron won from a similar base of 200 seats, the Tories had only lost the previous election by 3% so there were plenty of marginals to win. Labour lost by 11% last time and there are dozens of ‘middle England’ seats which Labour held under Blair and were marginals as recently as 2015 that now have majorities of 15k+ | |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 12:16 - Dec 17 with 1313 views | tractordownsouth |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 11:48 - Dec 17 by mylittletown |
Agreed. Don't see how the SNP could enter a Westminster coalition without making another independence referendum a condition. |
The only way it could happen is if the Labour and Lib Dem seats outnumber the Tories and DUP. Then Starmer could form a minority government and then challenge the SNP to vote them down, without needing to offer an independence referendum. If the SNP vote against progressive policy and side with the Tories, they’d be shown up as nationalists first and socialists/social democrats second. | |
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| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 12:27 - Dec 17 with 1288 views | itfcjoe |
| Lib Dems are 1.65 ish on Betfair to win North Shropshire on 11:22 - Dec 17 by Pinewoodblue |
Generally Blair/ Ashdown gave the the one who had finished second a run at the Tory candidate.
Labour had over 17,000 votes in 2017, down to 12,000 in 2019 and under 4,000 yesterday.
Would have been a better result for Labour if they had come a close second to the Tory candidate.
Looks like the majority of those inclined to vote Labour in a general election either stayed away or thought LibDem candidate had a better chance of winning. |
Starmer didn't even visit the seat, they didn't even make an attempt at it | |
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