| Why are we favourites to win the league? 05:36 - Jun 23 with 2848 views | ibbleobble |
Does anyone else think the bookies have it wrong touting us as favourites to win the league this season? I’m scratching my head with it a little bit.
McKenna’s half season in management yielded 41 pts. A good haul but 82 pts over the course of a season has never got a team directly promoted from this league. There’s no doubt we struggled in the final third and had a lean spell back end of the season and the signings he did make were on the poorer scale of last season’s transfer activity - it’s hard to see why the bookies have us ahead of others.
A check this morning on Sky Bet and our odds have gone out from 5/2 to 5/1 after our pragmatic signings so I’m a little unclear why they’re trying to get early money on us. Thoughts?
I have Sheff Wed and Peterborough as the top two and is in the top 6.
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 06:00 - Jun 23 with 2342 views | Westcountryblue |
I don't think we're favourites yet.
Very strong at the back and in certain areas of the pitch, like the centre and in wide areas.
For me, big question marks over the 4 strikers we currently have on the books. Personally, i don't think we have enough goals in us currently. | | | |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 06:16 - Jun 23 with 2309 views | textbackup |
gaining 41 points in 23 games, with a squad he took on, and transformed instantly, IMHO, was brilliant.
just think what he could achieve here with a full preseason, with the addition of "his" players.
very excited. |  |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 06:56 - Jun 23 with 2226 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 06:00 - Jun 23 by Westcountryblue |
I don't think we're favourites yet.
Very strong at the back and in certain areas of the pitch, like the centre and in wide areas.
For me, big question marks over the 4 strikers we currently have on the books. Personally, i don't think we have enough goals in us currently. |
We are 5/1 favs. Rightly or wrongly, every bookie makes us favourite.
Personally, I’d have us and Sheff Wednesday joint favs. 11/2 the pair. |  |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 07:02 - Jun 23 with 2186 views | Darth_Koont |
We probably should be favourites. On paper at least, which is where we are in pre-season.
We’ve a strong, pretty settled squad that stabilised last season and *should* be able to go up a gear next time around.
Of course, none of that matters until we actually see a promotion-winning team emerge on the pitch. But that’s the same for the competition too and we’re probably a more known and solid bet at this stage.
However this is ITFC and we’ve had many seasons since relegation where we’ve had a strong squad relative to most of the division. But much more rarely have we had a strong team. In fact, our most successful teams in 2004/5 and 2014/15 came from much more limited but tighter squads. I think that excess has been our downfall so far in League One, with much higher expectations but no real team emerging to match them. Although I think McKenna did a good job of building a team from the back when he came in – and he just needs to carry that into our attacking midfield and forwards. Easier said than done but he’s got almost the entirety of last season to see where we went wrong. |  |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 07:21 - Jun 23 with 2118 views | J2BLUE |
We’ve never been 5/2 for the title. That would be terrible odds. Think you’re looking at different markets. |  |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 07:33 - Jun 23 with 2074 views | BlueBadger |
Because lots of people have bet money on us. This is how bookmakers odds work. [Post edited 23 Jun 2022 7:34]
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 07:34 - Jun 23 with 2053 views | BlueBadger |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 06:16 - Jun 23 by textbackup |
gaining 41 points in 23 games, with a squad he took on, and transformed instantly, IMHO, was brilliant.
just think what he could achieve here with a full preseason, with the addition of "his" players.
very excited. |
Yes, but......smarmy. | |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 07:38 - Jun 23 with 2044 views | textbackup |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 07:34 - Jun 23 by BlueBadger |
Yes, but......smarmy. |
i'm sorry, i dont know what that means | |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 07:49 - Jun 23 with 2009 views | tractordownsouth |
The big clubs are always at the top of the list. Sunderland were favourites to go up every year they were in the league even though their squad was often quite average. [Post edited 23 Jun 2022 9:16]
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 08:01 - Jun 23 with 1965 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 07:33 - Jun 23 by BlueBadger |
Because lots of people have bet money on us. This is how bookmakers odds work. [Post edited 23 Jun 2022 7:34]
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I know I’ve said this a billion times (and everyone just ignores it and carries on for next time) but that’s not how it works.
Yes it guided by money bet yes (the Betfair exchange primarily will sway bookies along with their liabilities) but the early markets for literally everything come from an odds compiler. The market is opened at those odds as believed to be correct. 5/1 favs mean the compilers all have us around 16% chance of winning the league. In a market like this and in June, there’s not a chance that there would have been enough money to move the market. Would take a huge signing from someone to get a bit of a cut or a points deduction for derby for example to push their price out. But at this stage in the year, they’re what the experts believe to be the true odds*.
*The true odds that they’ll willingly lay. If they’re offering us 5/1 about Ipswich, chances are they make us a true 11/2 shot (5.5/1) but always offer slightly under the odds on outright markets like this because there’s a lot of people that do their accas and multiples for the year and wouldn’t even look at the odds when doing so. | |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 08:07 - Jun 23 with 1929 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 07:49 - Jun 23 by tractordownsouth |
The big clubs are always at the top of the list. Sunderland were favourites to go up every year they were in the league even though their squad was often quite average. [Post edited 23 Jun 2022 9:16]
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‘The big clubs are always at the top of the list, because more fans are likely to back them so it reduces the costs for the bookmaker.’
This also isn’t true. See my post above. The bigger clubs are usually at the upper ends of the outright markets but that’s purely because of budgets. Not necessarily saying it’s right that Sunderland should have been near the top of the lists most years but the reason is for the money available for wages and transfers. It’s undoubtedly lazy bookmaking in some scenarios but it’s nothing to do with the size of the fanbase and ‘costs for the bookmaker’. | |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 08:34 - Jun 23 with 1834 views | Dyland |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 06:00 - Jun 23 by Westcountryblue |
I don't think we're favourites yet.
Very strong at the back and in certain areas of the pitch, like the centre and in wide areas.
For me, big question marks over the 4 strikers we currently have on the books. Personally, i don't think we have enough goals in us currently. |
Not sure why there are 'big question marks' over Ladapo? Proven he can score consistently at this level, and arguable above.
Jackson showed he could be a strong forward in McK system before his injury. Sure, not proven himself consistently at this level but it's very negative to put a big question mark over him.
Piggott... agreed... not sure how he fits in, as much as him not delivering last season based on his ability.
You're just being a miserably sod about the Arsenal loan lad :) |  |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 08:40 - Jun 23 with 1799 views | Wallingford_Boy |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 07:38 - Jun 23 by textbackup |
i'm sorry, i dont know what that means |
He doesn’t either |  |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 09:07 - Jun 23 with 1741 views | Churchman |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 06:00 - Jun 23 by Westcountryblue |
I don't think we're favourites yet.
Very strong at the back and in certain areas of the pitch, like the centre and in wide areas.
For me, big question marks over the 4 strikers we currently have on the books. Personally, i don't think we have enough goals in us currently. |
This is my concern too. We outplayed most teams by a margin but looked short of goals all over the pitch far too often. I’m not sure about the strikers and we need a greater contribution from the defenders. Then there is set pieces.
My hope is that with a proper pre season and many of the players having been at the club a while, some of these concerns will be overcome. I watched that short program on Sky about the East Anglian Derby last night and Clapham made the point about how the the mainstay of the team being together a few years made such a difference in 2000/2001. I think he made a good point. |  | | |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 09:13 - Jun 23 with 1702 views | Dyland |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 09:07 - Jun 23 by Churchman |
This is my concern too. We outplayed most teams by a margin but looked short of goals all over the pitch far too often. I’m not sure about the strikers and we need a greater contribution from the defenders. Then there is set pieces.
My hope is that with a proper pre season and many of the players having been at the club a while, some of these concerns will be overcome. I watched that short program on Sky about the East Anglian Derby last night and Clapham made the point about how the the mainstay of the team being together a few years made such a difference in 2000/2001. I think he made a good point. |
Bang on re settled team. That's the big question mark for me about the front line, rather than if they are good enough players. What can you do though? And when was the last time we had two or more seasons with a settled attack or at least one striker as focal point? Murphy/McG/etc.? | |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 09:17 - Jun 23 with 1680 views | tractordownsouth |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 08:07 - Jun 23 by The_Romford_Blue |
‘The big clubs are always at the top of the list, because more fans are likely to back them so it reduces the costs for the bookmaker.’
This also isn’t true. See my post above. The bigger clubs are usually at the upper ends of the outright markets but that’s purely because of budgets. Not necessarily saying it’s right that Sunderland should have been near the top of the lists most years but the reason is for the money available for wages and transfers. It’s undoubtedly lazy bookmaking in some scenarios but it’s nothing to do with the size of the fanbase and ‘costs for the bookmaker’. |
Didn't know that, must be a bit of an urban myth then. Post duly amended.
What do you think of the fixtures? Likely to get to many aways this year? | |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 10:03 - Jun 23 with 1583 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 09:17 - Jun 23 by tractordownsouth |
Didn't know that, must be a bit of an urban myth then. Post duly amended.
What do you think of the fixtures? Likely to get to many aways this year? |
Yeah the betting world is quite different to what people tend to think sometimes.
Won’t be working as many Saturdays as last season so should get to more games in general. Only did about 3 combined from janaury onwards last year. Have just bought a gold card out of my loyalty points purely for the Forest Green game. Be a nightmare getting a ticket for that. What about your good self? | |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 10:33 - Jun 23 with 1500 views | tractordownsouth |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 10:03 - Jun 23 by The_Romford_Blue |
Yeah the betting world is quite different to what people tend to think sometimes.
Won’t be working as many Saturdays as last season so should get to more games in general. Only did about 3 combined from janaury onwards last year. Have just bought a gold card out of my loyalty points purely for the Forest Green game. Be a nightmare getting a ticket for that. What about your good self? |
Yeah I was going to try for FGR but I doubt it will go to General Sale. I'm not entirely sure what I'll be doing next year yet - I've finished uni and am back in Cornwall working for now but I'm applying for jobs in Cardiff and my girlfriend's family have said I can move in with them when I get one which is great ( will be much cheaper than what I'd have to pay in rent, plus easier to get to Town games!) Providing I can get the days off, I'll do Plymouth and Exeter as usual, plus Bristol Rovers and Cheltenham if I can get a ticket. I have an uncle in Sheffield so I'll either do Wednesday or Barnsley as well. | |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 10:35 - Jun 23 with 1494 views | PhilTWTD |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 08:01 - Jun 23 by The_Romford_Blue |
I know I’ve said this a billion times (and everyone just ignores it and carries on for next time) but that’s not how it works.
Yes it guided by money bet yes (the Betfair exchange primarily will sway bookies along with their liabilities) but the early markets for literally everything come from an odds compiler. The market is opened at those odds as believed to be correct. 5/1 favs mean the compilers all have us around 16% chance of winning the league. In a market like this and in June, there’s not a chance that there would have been enough money to move the market. Would take a huge signing from someone to get a bit of a cut or a points deduction for derby for example to push their price out. But at this stage in the year, they’re what the experts believe to be the true odds*.
*The true odds that they’ll willingly lay. If they’re offering us 5/1 about Ipswich, chances are they make us a true 11/2 shot (5.5/1) but always offer slightly under the odds on outright markets like this because there’s a lot of people that do their accas and multiples for the year and wouldn’t even look at the odds when doing so. |
We did have a regular poster on here who was an odds setter some years back. Specialised in tennis and rallying, if I remember rightly. |  | | |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 10:42 - Jun 23 with 1445 views | wkj |
82 points with a squad he's made improvements to. I think we're good for our odds |  |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 11:09 - Jun 23 with 1393 views | BonneNIL |
We shouldn't be, so far we have dragged in a couple of free transfers and a loan, and we've not replaced key players we have lost from last season, nor have we improved our squad. |  |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 11:19 - Jun 23 with 1366 views | wkj |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 11:09 - Jun 23 by BonneNIL |
We shouldn't be, so far we have dragged in a couple of free transfers and a loan, and we've not replaced key players we have lost from last season, nor have we improved our squad. |
How have you managed to see the new team play already? [Post edited 23 Jun 2022 11:20]
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 11:30 - Jun 23 with 1339 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 10:35 - Jun 23 by PhilTWTD |
We did have a regular poster on here who was an odds setter some years back. Specialised in tennis and rallying, if I remember rightly. |
I don’t want to say exactly what I do but I work for one of the worlds biggest bookmakers as it goes. Albeit I don’t do anything in the football markets. | |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 11:33 - Jun 23 with 1324 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 10:33 - Jun 23 by tractordownsouth |
Yeah I was going to try for FGR but I doubt it will go to General Sale. I'm not entirely sure what I'll be doing next year yet - I've finished uni and am back in Cornwall working for now but I'm applying for jobs in Cardiff and my girlfriend's family have said I can move in with them when I get one which is great ( will be much cheaper than what I'd have to pay in rent, plus easier to get to Town games!) Providing I can get the days off, I'll do Plymouth and Exeter as usual, plus Bristol Rovers and Cheltenham if I can get a ticket. I have an uncle in Sheffield so I'll either do Wednesday or Barnsley as well. |
Good to hear all is going well after uni. I did think to message you a few weeks back but forgot haha.
Never done plymouth but my mates family own a mansion there they use as a holiday home and we’ve said about doing a weekend down there for it so I’ll probably come this year. Been busy in recent years so haven’t made it yet. | |
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| Why are we favourites to win the league? on 11:34 - Jun 23 with 1319 views | SouperJim |
We're an obvious pick as we're perceived (rightly or wrongly) to be punching below our weight, therefore we have short odds.
I actually think this year we're perhaps more deserving of short odds if you're in the know, the odds on us the last few seasons have not really been deserved and have been based around hype. |  |
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