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To be fair, you will have seen similar answers on here as anywhere else you would've sought them at the time, unless people had a crystal ball. Nobody forecast rates rising as quickly as they have, and the impact that will have on the property market. I'm sure there will be a contraction, but I think anyone waiting for -25% and a huge buying opportunity might be waiting a while. Also important to remember that -15% still only takes the average house price back to 2020 levels. I've never been one to prescribe to the idea that house prices should rise 7% a year, it's not sustainable and never has been. Those who have been sitting tight since 2016 waiting for this big correction might act smug, but the reality is they still wont likely ever see 2016 prices again, they would need to lose 1/3 of their value.
The other thing people forget is you need somewhere to live. If you're talking about an investment its different, put your money into a high interest savings account, but if you're like the vast majority of the population who don't have a 2nd home then you need somewhere to live. If you don't buy somewhere you can rent a house, but I dare say you'll see a huge uplift in rental prices.
But to answer your question, right now I would sit tight and keep my powder dry and see what happens over the next 12 months personally. The downside potential outweighs the upside if you're a FTB today. It's not like prices are going to shoot up any time soon.
The Cassandras of TWTD have been predicting an enormous house price crash since 2008. I think they will get their wish this time. Enormous house price inflation and 6% interest rates just can’t work.
In the spirit of reconciliation and happiness at the end of the Banter Era (RIP) and as a result of promotion I have cleared out my ignore list. Look forwards to reading your posts!
You could have bought mine, but it is in Wales 😬
Depends on your circumstances of course. If it’s any help, according to my estate agent, there are a few more properties coming on the market now (there’s been very few this year), but supply is still too low for demand and so prices are holding up. But they have seen a cooling in the market over the last few weeks (event before Kwarteng’s f**k up). They’re thinking the market will continue to cool, so prices are likely to drop. Maybe.
Also depends on your circumstances. If you’d need a mortgage rates are going up and likely to go up more, to 5-6% by next summer, so you’d want to buy sooner rather than later. If you’re a cash buyer you’ll be in a great position to snap up one of the few properties available now (we had 2 cash buyers in the final 3 bidding for ours this week). But, and I’d suggest it’s the opposite scenario to mortgage buyers if prices are likely to fall, you might be better waiting and possibly getting more for your money next summer or later if prices fall (maybe). A hard call.
But who knows what will happen - it’s a guessing game.
PS. It’ll also be highly variable across the UK of course, so keep an eye on regional trends.
Should i buy a house in the UK ? on 15:15 - Sep 29 by clive_baker
To be fair, you will have seen similar answers on here as anywhere else you would've sought them at the time, unless people had a crystal ball. Nobody forecast rates rising as quickly as they have, and the impact that will have on the property market. I'm sure there will be a contraction, but I think anyone waiting for -25% and a huge buying opportunity might be waiting a while. Also important to remember that -15% still only takes the average house price back to 2020 levels. I've never been one to prescribe to the idea that house prices should rise 7% a year, it's not sustainable and never has been. Those who have been sitting tight since 2016 waiting for this big correction might act smug, but the reality is they still wont likely ever see 2016 prices again, they would need to lose 1/3 of their value.
The other thing people forget is you need somewhere to live. If you're talking about an investment its different, put your money into a high interest savings account, but if you're like the vast majority of the population who don't have a 2nd home then you need somewhere to live. If you don't buy somewhere you can rent a house, but I dare say you'll see a huge uplift in rental prices.
But to answer your question, right now I would sit tight and keep my powder dry and see what happens over the next 12 months personally. The downside potential outweighs the upside if you're a FTB today. It's not like prices are going to shoot up any time soon.
It is all very subjective and always has been. Even if there’s a “correction” which is obviously likely for some areas, price bands etc then a first time buyer might still work out it’s worth running the risk. A 15% reduction in face value on a 150k house isn’t much in cash terms, and it’s arguably still better than renting. If you have a decent mortgage offer already it could still make sense.
Similarly if you’re not a FTB and you’re intending to buy and hold for a long time, I wouldn’t be overly concerned provided mortgage rate is relatively short term and fixed.
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