[Post edited 21 May 2024 11:40]

[Post edited 21 May 2024 12:44]

Targets by Kropotkin123 20 May 2024 7:32
I'm here to save you from the endless KM rumours!

Ipswich come into the 2024-25 Premiership season with two consecutive 2nd place finishes. Town will be seeking to replicate this and may deem anything less than second as a failure. So too will Arsenal, who themselves have finished second two seasons in a row. One thing is for certain, next season, at least one of these teams won’t finish second.

https://i.ibb.co/rmgFVRt/2.png

Since the top tier moved to 20 teams 86 teams have been promoted. You may speculate that this is bad maths. But in the 1994-95 season only two clubs were promoted. Reading finished second and missed out to Bolton in the Play-offs. Don’t feel too sorry for them though, in 2005-06, Reading got promoted with a record points total (106) and never looked back.

The most impressive performance by a promoted team was a team you may have heard of - Ipswich. Written off by everyone following their play-off success, Ipswich amassed 66 points, finishing 5th and qualifying for Europe. Town are the only promoted team to win more than half their games and have the highest goal difference. If they can’t finish second, Town may have to settle for European qualification.

https://i.ibb.co/C8wVBTk/Pts-Best.png

At the other end of the talent pool we find the worst teams of the modern era. Of course, Norwich are so bad we see them twice. Ipswich will be wanting to chalk those totals off by Christmas, if we want to put ourselves in a good position to stay up. If we have a tough season, we will still want to better 11 and 22 points.

https://i.ibb.co/jGv9TYq/Pts-Worst.png

At the very least we want to be targeting 17th place. Survival. So we can give ourselves the opportunity to consolidate our position in the league and build. There has been a 12 point range for the teams finishing in 17th (44-32 points). Though this past season we had the lowest total, in part, due to a points deduction. Without that Forest would have finished on 36, the modal average, reducing the range to 10 points (44-34 points). One could argue to stay up we would replace one of the bottom three and need to better this tally.

https://i.ibb.co/6v6fK7g/17.png

Another way of looking at it is we would need to beat the teams in the bottom three. Or, beat the team in 18th place. This season produced the lowest points total for 18th place. Luton were only four points above Norwich’s -61 GD season (26 and 22 respectively). Two thirds of teams are finishing 18th with 33 to 36 points. So you have to count yourself unlucky if you are finishing 18th with 37 or more points. West Ham getting relegated on 42 points can feel particularly hard done by. They would have survived on any other season with that tally and GD.

https://i.ibb.co/NjR7ppn/18.png

From these charts we can argue a few things. 76% of the time, you will finish ahead of the team in 18th with 38 points. If Ipswich get 45 points, it would take a record breaking season for Town to get relegated. If you are planning to survive, this is the number you should target at the beginning of the season, so it is not in the hands of chance.

Of the teams that got relegated, the best GD ever was Middlesbrough on -9. This was in the 1996-97 season when they were relegated with 39 points. The reality of finishing so low is you will see more goals go against you than you do for you. Even in Ipswich’s phenomenal season, Town had a GD of 15. Only 7 promoted teams from 86 have recorded a positive GD in their first season.

https://i.ibb.co/1ZmhqdF/GD-Best.png

It’s even rarer for a team to record >50 goals and still get relegated. So targeting 50 goals would be a reasonable ambition. Though, word of warning, Luton and Leicester have scored >50 in successive seasons and both have been relegated! If we are to score >50 goals, let’s not be the ones to make it 3 in a row. Seeing Luton with such a low points tally and a good goal difference is surprising.

https://i.ibb.co/HCy70NV/GF-Best.png

No relegated team has conceded less than 50 goals. This makes more than 50 goals scored and less than 50 goals conceded a pretty natural target to aim for.

https://i.ibb.co/dKS4zRN/GA-Best.png

So here we have it. I’ll be tracking how we get on against previous seasons in some sort of half-arsed manner. The spreadsheets are loaded up, working automatically. It is just about how regularly I get on to post them. If you want access to the spreadsheets themselves, let me know in a private message. It is currently showing the Championship, as it is pulling from the TWTD table, so when that updates, we should be golden.

Black Line = Derby’s 11 point season
Green Line = Norwich’s 22 point season
Red Line = 45 point safety line
Blue Line = Ipswich’s 66 point season


https://i.ibb.co/hcTZSdL/T-Points.png

Black Line = Derby’s 20 GF
Green Line = Norwich’s 23 GF
Red Line = 50 GF target
Blue Line = Ipswich’s 57 GF


https://i.ibb.co/y87Pt8c/T-GF.png

Black Line = Sheff Utd 104 GA
Green Line = Norwich’s 84 GA
Red Line = 50 GA target
Blue Line = Ipswich’s 42 GA

https://i.ibb.co/NnHLDjs/T-GA.png