| Could this Wagner coup 10:32 - Jun 24 with 11077 views | Bobsthename |
go to some way of ending the Russia / Ukraine conflict i’m hoping it would . |  | | |  |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:41 - Jun 24 with 4585 views | RegencyBlue |
Doubt it!
This is the equivalent of the SS and the Gestapo having a spat. Wagners main complaint seems to be how the war has been conducted rather than a major problem with the invasion itself. |  | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:48 - Jun 24 with 4519 views | Churchman |
Not likely. Once the Wagner leader is disposed of, along with his allies and anyone that knew him, the Wagner men will be absorbed into the Russian army and with one central command structure might well be stronger. |  | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:50 - Jun 24 with 4518 views | Guthrum |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:41 - Jun 24 by RegencyBlue |
Doubt it!
This is the equivalent of the SS and the Gestapo having a spat. Wagners main complaint seems to be how the war has been conducted rather than a major problem with the invasion itself. |
Tho it's interesting what Prigozhin said about the false basis for launching the war and how it might have been avoided. May suggest he'd look for a negotiated settlement. |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 10:55 - Jun 24 with 4460 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:50 - Jun 24 by Guthrum |
Tho it's interesting what Prigozhin said about the false basis for launching the war and how it might have been avoided. May suggest he'd look for a negotiated settlement. |
The more immediate impact is that Russia will struggle to get men and ammo to the fronts in Ukraine with Rostov under Wagner control. Just read something which said the effects of that will be evident in a week. It could well all collapse like a pack of cards, which had ultimately been the expectation in some quarters the longer the war progressed in any case. |  | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:56 - Jun 24 with 4444 views | Sarge |
Not sure but at worst it may prove a distraction and allow Ukraine to seize some initiative and at best might kill off a load of both Wagner and Russian soldiers which can only be good for everyone. | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:57 - Jun 24 with 4422 views | Guthrum |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:55 - Jun 24 by PhilTWTD |
The more immediate impact is that Russia will struggle to get men and ammo to the fronts in Ukraine with Rostov under Wagner control. Just read something which said the effects of that will be evident in a week. It could well all collapse like a pack of cards, which had ultimately been the expectation in some quarters the longer the war progressed in any case. |
Indeed. And to take on Wagner, they will need to withdraw some of the better troops from the front line. | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:00 - Jun 24 with 4394 views | Churchman |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:50 - Jun 24 by Guthrum |
Tho it's interesting what Prigozhin said about the false basis for launching the war and how it might have been avoided. May suggest he'd look for a negotiated settlement. |
I suspect you are right. He’s actually seen it for what it is, unlike Putin who lives with his dreams and listens to his yes men.
My money is that Prigozhin will be looking at a negotiated settlement from a hole in the ground by the end of the weekend - but you never know with that country. I never thought the Soviet Union would collapse in the way it did so anything could happen.
Does Putin kill his generals after Prigozhin to reassert his iron grip?
Do other disgruntled states within Russia start grumbling?
Will the army remain unified and happy with its human wave lot?
Will the people still be 99.9% behind Putin?
Russian state tv will be interesting. Do they report this or do they just carry on with anti west rhetoric and threats as if nothing has happened? | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:02 - Jun 24 with 4380 views | Guthrum |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:00 - Jun 24 by Churchman |
I suspect you are right. He’s actually seen it for what it is, unlike Putin who lives with his dreams and listens to his yes men.
My money is that Prigozhin will be looking at a negotiated settlement from a hole in the ground by the end of the weekend - but you never know with that country. I never thought the Soviet Union would collapse in the way it did so anything could happen.
Does Putin kill his generals after Prigozhin to reassert his iron grip?
Do other disgruntled states within Russia start grumbling?
Will the army remain unified and happy with its human wave lot?
Will the people still be 99.9% behind Putin?
Russian state tv will be interesting. Do they report this or do they just carry on with anti west rhetoric and threats as if nothing has happened? |
Too late for that last after Putin's speech this morning. Pretty much acknowlegement of civil war. | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:04 - Jun 24 with 4380 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:57 - Jun 24 by Guthrum |
Indeed. And to take on Wagner, they will need to withdraw some of the better troops from the front line. |
And there's the psychological effect on the soldiers in Ukraine, who will be well aware of what's going on. Not going to make them any more enthusiastic to continue to come under fire for a cause many will be ambivalent about at most.
This post has been edited by an administrator | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:04 - Jun 24 with 4371 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:55 - Jun 24 by PhilTWTD |
The more immediate impact is that Russia will struggle to get men and ammo to the fronts in Ukraine with Rostov under Wagner control. Just read something which said the effects of that will be evident in a week. It could well all collapse like a pack of cards, which had ultimately been the expectation in some quarters the longer the war progressed in any case. |
A quick look at Google maps suggests long stretches of the main route South from Moscow are effectively closed.
If military personnel are moved south from Moscow and weaken the Moscow garrison could there be civil unrest in the capital?
Guess all we can do is look on with interest. |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:05 - Jun 24 with 4351 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:04 - Jun 24 by Pinewoodblue |
A quick look at Google maps suggests long stretches of the main route South from Moscow are effectively closed.
If military personnel are moved south from Moscow and weaken the Moscow garrison could there be civil unrest in the capital?
Guess all we can do is look on with interest. |
Indeed, while this is currently far from a popular uprising, it could precipitate one. | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:12 - Jun 24 with 4293 views | Guthrum |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:04 - Jun 24 by PhilTWTD |
And there's the psychological effect on the soldiers in Ukraine, who will be well aware of what's going on. Not going to make them any more enthusiastic to continue to come under fire for a cause many will be ambivalent about at most.
This post has been edited by an administrator |
I've always thought that the Russian military collapsing was the best chance of ending the war in Ukraine's favour. They get fed up with taking casualties in ill-directed battles and decide to mutiny or simply go home. | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:13 - Jun 24 with 4294 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:05 - Jun 24 by PhilTWTD |
Indeed, while this is currently far from a popular uprising, it could precipitate one. |
On that front, the other thing to watch on that is what happens in Belarus. Lukashenko is rumoured to have fled to Turkey with his family in the middle of the night. | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:15 - Jun 24 with 4261 views | pointofblue |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:13 - Jun 24 by PhilTWTD |
On that front, the other thing to watch on that is what happens in Belarus. Lukashenko is rumoured to have fled to Turkey with his family in the middle of the night. |
If Lukashenko has fled, does that signify that he has little faith in continued support from Moscow, which suggest Putin’s position has weakened significantly, or is there internal unrest in Belarus itself? | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:16 - Jun 24 with 4262 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:12 - Jun 24 by Guthrum |
I've always thought that the Russian military collapsing was the best chance of ending the war in Ukraine's favour. They get fed up with taking casualties in ill-directed battles and decide to mutiny or simply go home. |
Think it's been inevitable, probably from the opening period when it became clear the invasion wasn't going to be completed in a couple of days and most of the rest of the world was going to back Ukraine with weaponry, and this will probably hasten that happening. | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:18 - Jun 24 with 4246 views | Guthrum |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:13 - Jun 24 by PhilTWTD |
On that front, the other thing to watch on that is what happens in Belarus. Lukashenko is rumoured to have fled to Turkey with his family in the middle of the night. |
That's based on a Tweet which purports to show his private plane taking off from Minsk at about midnight. Couldn't find anything on FlightRadar to back that up, or where it went, tho.
Would be surprised if Lukashenko had baled out that early, has no reason to at this stage unless a) he thought a collapse was very imminent or b) be's in on the plot and fears repercussions (has had to rely on Putin, but doesn't really like him). | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:19 - Jun 24 with 4245 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:15 - Jun 24 by pointofblue |
If Lukashenko has fled, does that signify that he has little faith in continued support from Moscow, which suggest Putin’s position has weakened significantly, or is there internal unrest in Belarus itself? |
Probably a bit of both, or panic that Moscow may no longer be in a position to prop him up and that the protests could return to the streets and they might not be quelled this time. | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:22 - Jun 24 with 4222 views | PhilTWTD |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:18 - Jun 24 by Guthrum |
That's based on a Tweet which purports to show his private plane taking off from Minsk at about midnight. Couldn't find anything on FlightRadar to back that up, or where it went, tho.
Would be surprised if Lukashenko had baled out that early, has no reason to at this stage unless a) he thought a collapse was very imminent or b) be's in on the plot and fears repercussions (has had to rely on Putin, but doesn't really like him). |
This quotes some data of that type, albeit it's not a neutral source.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/24/7408310/ | | | |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:27 - Jun 24 with 4181 views | WeWereZombies |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:00 - Jun 24 by Churchman |
I suspect you are right. He’s actually seen it for what it is, unlike Putin who lives with his dreams and listens to his yes men.
My money is that Prigozhin will be looking at a negotiated settlement from a hole in the ground by the end of the weekend - but you never know with that country. I never thought the Soviet Union would collapse in the way it did so anything could happen.
Does Putin kill his generals after Prigozhin to reassert his iron grip?
Do other disgruntled states within Russia start grumbling?
Will the army remain unified and happy with its human wave lot?
Will the people still be 99.9% behind Putin?
Russian state tv will be interesting. Do they report this or do they just carry on with anti west rhetoric and threats as if nothing has happened? |
On what the response from the Oblasts could be like:
'Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov says his forces are ready to help put down a mutiny by Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and to use harsh methods if necessary.
Kadyrov, in a statement, called Prigozhin’s behaviour “a knife in the back” and called on Russian soldiers not to give in to any “provocations”.'
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/6/24/russia-ukraine-live-news-russi |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:42 - Jun 24 with 4104 views | Charlie_pl_baxter |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:05 - Jun 24 by PhilTWTD |
Indeed, while this is currently far from a popular uprising, it could precipitate one. |
I think we underestimate Putin's popularity at our own risk. My son's swimming coach is Russian/Estonian and he always says that in the West we have no idea how bad things were when Putin took power. He and many others still see Putin as the saviour of Russia from the mafia and gangsterism of the Yeltsin era. |  |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:46 - Jun 24 with 4084 views | Guthrum |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:42 - Jun 24 by Charlie_pl_baxter |
I think we underestimate Putin's popularity at our own risk. My son's swimming coach is Russian/Estonian and he always says that in the West we have no idea how bad things were when Putin took power. He and many others still see Putin as the saviour of Russia from the mafia and gangsterism of the Yeltsin era. |
Absolutely. Altho fighting on the streets between Russians may erode that quite quickly.
Plus the populace have no mechanism for influencing events. They've spent decades being told to keep out of politics, so are unlikely to rush onto the streets either for Putin or against him. | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:50 - Jun 24 with 4064 views | Charlie_pl_baxter |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:46 - Jun 24 by Guthrum |
Absolutely. Altho fighting on the streets between Russians may erode that quite quickly.
Plus the populace have no mechanism for influencing events. They've spent decades being told to keep out of politics, so are unlikely to rush onto the streets either for Putin or against him. |
Think this might be the point. Everyday Russian's just watching while those with weapons fight it out. | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:53 - Jun 24 with 4053 views | WeWereZombies |
Slightly, though not completely, more neutral source:
'Belarus says Russian President Vladimir Putin has briefed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on the situation in Moscow.
Putin has promised to crush what he calls an armed mutiny after rebellious mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said he had taken control of a southern city as part of an attempt to overthrow the military leadership.'
Two hours ago on https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/6/24/russia-ukraine-live-news-russi | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:57 - Jun 24 with 3993 views | Guthrum |
| Could this Wagner coup on 11:53 - Jun 24 by WeWereZombies |
Slightly, though not completely, more neutral source:
'Belarus says Russian President Vladimir Putin has briefed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on the situation in Moscow.
Putin has promised to crush what he calls an armed mutiny after rebellious mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said he had taken control of a southern city as part of an attempt to overthrow the military leadership.'
Two hours ago on https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/6/24/russia-ukraine-live-news-russi |
May have sent his family (and cash?) to safety while remaining in Minsk himself for now. | |
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| Could this Wagner coup on 11:58 - Jun 24 with 3986 views | brogansnose |
| Could this Wagner coup on 10:57 - Jun 24 by Guthrum |
Indeed. And to take on Wagner, they will need to withdraw some of the better troops from the front line. |
Despite the apparent support for the war domestically, could there be an element of the normal military that hasn't got a lot of morale and are questioning the the war given their losses , lack of materiel, poor leadership and the fact that they were told that they would be welcomed by the Ukrainians ? If so, how likely are some of them to come into conflict with Wagner ? |  | | |
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