| The Hurst situation – Three observations 13:33 - Oct 21 with 4082 views | NorrisHatter |
Having lurked for years on this board, this is the first time I’ve posted on here, so I hope I add some value with this!
My first observation
It strikes me that the Hurst appointment is a classic example of the “Peter Principle”, namely that people get promoted to their level of incompetence. Good at a job - get promoted to the next level. Good at that — get promoted again, until you’re suddenly out of your depth.
That happens in loads of businesses, so it’s generally hard to spot when it’s going to happen. But was it in this case? I was never vehemently against MM but I agreed that his tenure had run its course, so was looking forward to the appointment of a young “up and coming manager”.
I was genuinely excited by the prospect of Jack Ross. He seemed to play the right kind of football and importantly had played several seasons (admittedly at Falkirk and St Mirren) in the top flight of Scottish football, so had the experience of what it’s like to be in a big league.
Paul Hurst seemed like a good second choice. But then I read comments from Shrewsbury fans that suggested that his style of football wasn’t the “Ipswich way”. Then add in the fact that he had never played in a top division, and in fact only played four seasons at Championship level and it struck me that he would need quite a lot of hands on guidance from senior management to adapt to his new environment and avoid the Peter Principle from striking.
In our most successful periods it seems to me that there was a close and supportive relationship between the chairman and the manager; the Cobbolds and Sir Bobby and Sheepshanks and George Burley.
Robson, even though he had little management experience had the advantages of having played at the very top level for his career so knew his way round division 1, as it then was, and took over a club reasonably on the up, having been promoted the season before.. And Burley, although taking over a club on the way down, had similar playing experience to Robson, plus knowing ITFC like the back of his hand, and had gained some managerial experience at Colchester
Hurst started at something of a disadvantage in comparison with those two. So support from senior management was going to be vital.
That was never likely to happen. Partly because Hurst himself doesn’t seem to be someone who readily seeks advice, but mostly due to…
My second observation
Just because you’re good at one thing doesn’t make you automatically good at another
Marcus Evans has made more money than pretty much all of us on this board can dream of making. So hats off to him for that. But being a successful entrepreneur doesn’t mean everything you touch will turn to gold. Virgin Cola, anyone? Or Virginwear and Virgin cars. All notable Branson failures.
The way you deal with that possibility is to be humble, commit to learning about the business and provide hands on support to the new guy, a la John Cobbold or David Sheepshanks. Failing that you get in people who understand the business to run it for you with you just adding in the drive and entrepreneurial flair. Evans has shown no propensity to do either. Clegg wasn’t a football man and Milne was plucked from the Evans Empire, so not a football man either. So as things stand Hurst will be left to sink or swim. It looks like he’s a drowning man clutching at straws right now.
My third observation
Change will happen in the next two months.
Hurst make get a dose of humility and seek advice and find a way to turn it round and quickly. It can happen. Clued up observers of my posting name may have worked out that my second, adopted, local team is Stockport. In 1996/7 County had a terrible start. The young “up and coming” manager, Dave Jones asked the senior players to help him out with advice. It went on to be the club’s best ever season: promotion, FA Cup 4th round and a league cup semi.
Or, Evans will act and replace Hurst. Whilst his finance people will be telling Evans that the money he has put into ITFC is a sunk cost and irrelevant therefore to decisions going forward, he will nonetheless be looking to maximise the value of what he’s got left. Contrary to what you occasionally see in posts on here, ITFC losses aren’t some sort of crafty tax dodge whereby you make more money than you lose. Profit is always better than loss. That’s why businesses tend to try to make the former and not the latter.
Relegation isn’t a good look finance wise. I think Evans will look to save the pieces and then he’ll look to sell. Originally his plan was probably to get a high profile manager (Keane), get into the premiership quickly and ITFC would be a glittering, helpful star in his events business. Now it must just be an embarrassment. It’s failing and making him look stupid amongst his business acquaintances as he makes mistake after mistake. He WILL sell. And not for a fortune.
When we were buying an apartment in Spain a couple of years back we were constantly told that the owner of the place we were looking at had paid a fortune and now it had been discounted by x% so was cheap. My response was always, just because a fool ploughed a load of money into a property in the midst of a bubble, doesn’t make it cheap at the price you now quote. I’ll pay what it’s worth, thanks.
As soon as he can stabilise it and make it look like a half decent prospect Evans will recoup whatever he can, rather than lose even more. It may get sold relatively cheaply. One of those mega Euromillions roll overs would do it easily and leave a kitty for new players, I reckon. I buy two tickets every week……
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| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 13:40 - Oct 21 with 3988 views | J2BLUE |
Good post, welcome to the board.
My only issue with your post is the shot at Virgin Cola! Admittedly it wasn't great but we virtually lived on that stuff in the summer down the local park playing football from dusk til dawn. 440ml cans for £0.35 if I remember correctly. Summer seemed to last forever.
TWTD. Life will never be that good or simple again. Quite depressing. |  |
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| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 13:47 - Oct 21 with 3925 views | eireblue |
Yea good post, but ......who knew Norris liked hats so much. [Post edited 21 Oct 2018 16:49]
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| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 13:49 - Oct 21 with 3913 views | BecclesITFC |
Good post.
I agree totally that people can go to far. After the first 5-7 games i was starting to think PH may have just gone above his capabilities. |  | | |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 13:50 - Oct 21 with 3912 views | Ryorry |
I love posters who give new facts, info and insights -what a cracking first post, welcome to the madh.... - sorry, forum! ;) |  |
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| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 13:55 - Oct 21 with 3884 views | eddiespearitt03 |
Since the Cobbold family handed over control of this great football club ,my only observation is that the football club has had two poor owners of this club. The previous and the present. | | | |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 14:05 - Oct 21 with 3823 views | Burwell_Blue |
Lots of opinion stated as fact. 5/10 |  | | |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 16:47 - Oct 21 with 3571 views | Vic |
Excellent post and worth the read.
Not sure about the confident assertion that Evans WILL sell. I hope he does, we definitely need a shot of something in the arm, so I hope your right. Other than that it’s another opinion stated as fact. |  |
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| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 17:12 - Oct 21 with 3478 views | GeoffSentence |
You learn something new every day. I assumed you were a Luton man, I never knew that Stockport were also Hatters. |  |
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| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 17:21 - Oct 21 with 3445 views | Slambo |
Great post mate, cheers for that. I am personally of the opinion that the only viable future Ipswich has - if it wants to be a relevant, competitive club - is in the hands of someone else. Hurst has clearly been a mistake, but merely the latest in a long line of them from Evans. He clearly doesn't have the capability/inclination to invest in Ipswich beyond the bare minimum...
People consistently say on here that relegation would be a disaster for the club, but as you rightly observe, it would mean Evans would be forced to sell at a discounted price and I bet we'd suddenly look a tidy prospect to potential investors. Ipswich Town Football Club has good potential: 30,000 capacity stadium with fans that would eagerly fill it if there was some prospect of success, drawn from a pretty large catchment area pretty much all to ourselves...
I have two concerns with this scenario though: firstly Evans tries to asset strip the club in a last ditch attempt to recoup his losses. But then, i'm not sure what he actually owns. He definitely doesn't own the ground, but does he own the training ground? Secondly, who a potential new buyer could be. If Evans is desperate to just offload the club to the first suitor that turns up, we could end up with unscrupulous, exploitative owner happy to abuse a desperate, enfeebled club... |  |
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| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 17:31 - Oct 21 with 3392 views | bluebud |
Look man, Virgin Cola was great. |  | | |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 17:35 - Oct 21 with 3378 views | blueislander |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 13:55 - Oct 21 by eddiespearitt03 |
Since the Cobbold family handed over control of this great football club ,my only observation is that the football club has had two poor owners of this club. The previous and the present. |
Sheepshanks did not own the club. | | | |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 17:59 - Oct 21 with 3298 views | ElephantintheRoom |
As an observation on your observation, Burley was pretty hopeless in his early years and would have been fired with a less indulgent chairman than Sheepshanks. The solution was to bring in experienced coaches - Hamilton first, then Houston, both of whom turned seasons around in the twinkling of an eye because they knew what they were doing. Your 'Peter Principle' is flawed in that Hurst has no experience of working at clubs where he is utterly isolated. He is in a hopeless position, made worse by his arrogance on entering the club when he alienated senior players and staff When all is said and done, the position is not irretrevable. Bart will return now 'Gerks' has made a mistake and a win gets Town out of the bottom four. Birmingham are relegated already through a 15 point deduction, Rotherham are too useless to survive. It will take some doing to be relegated this year. Finally as an old git previously high up in a multinational, losses in one country's subsiduary were distinctly useful - as was the ability to cross charge time and services. I'm pretty sure Evans makes a seven figure killing every year out of Town for no effort whatsoever. | |
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| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 19:14 - Oct 21 with 3142 views | Pilgrimblue |
Great posting, many more as good sense is worth reading.
As they say if you want to make a small fortune from football you need to start with a larger fortune! I agree that ME has dug a big hole for himself and by picking PH he hoped to steady the ship on the cheap and then sell. However he got it wrong again. no doubt using the same advisers (idiot).
For me PH wasn't my first choice due to his inexperience but nonetheless hoped he would be good. Sadly he's fallen well short so unless he gets points very quickly, he won't last much longer IMHO.
I think he'll be gone soon and would like Klug with our U23 coaches in support to take over. Maybe then the squad can be reinforced with better quality and the return of our youngsters currently out on loan. |  | | |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 19:26 - Oct 21 with 3100 views | Eireannach_gorm |
Good thoughtful post.
My own observation
'Dave Jones asked the senior players to help him out with advice.' I think that might be Hurst's Achilles Heel. |  | | |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 19:53 - Oct 21 with 3040 views | Geminiblue |
Was interesting to listen to Mick Mills talking about Bobby Robson after the match Saturday on Radio Suffolk. Said as a coach on the training pitch he wasn’t outstanding, didn’t really do anything out of the ordinary, etc, but what he was good at was developing the youngsters and his judgement in making good signings, always made sure anyone new coming in would add something to the squad, and ultimately strengthen it. This meant his teams always had a good mixture of experience and youth. | | | |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 09:20 - Oct 22 with 2601 views | NorrisHatter |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 17:59 - Oct 21 by ElephantintheRoom |
As an observation on your observation, Burley was pretty hopeless in his early years and would have been fired with a less indulgent chairman than Sheepshanks. The solution was to bring in experienced coaches - Hamilton first, then Houston, both of whom turned seasons around in the twinkling of an eye because they knew what they were doing. Your 'Peter Principle' is flawed in that Hurst has no experience of working at clubs where he is utterly isolated. He is in a hopeless position, made worse by his arrogance on entering the club when he alienated senior players and staff When all is said and done, the position is not irretrevable. Bart will return now 'Gerks' has made a mistake and a win gets Town out of the bottom four. Birmingham are relegated already through a 15 point deduction, Rotherham are too useless to survive. It will take some doing to be relegated this year. Finally as an old git previously high up in a multinational, losses in one country's subsiduary were distinctly useful - as was the ability to cross charge time and services. I'm pretty sure Evans makes a seven figure killing every year out of Town for no effort whatsoever. |
Many thanks for your reply (and to others on this thread which have made me aware of things historically that despite 50 odd years of following Town I was unaware of). In particular your point about the support given to Burley by bringing in experience is very enlightening. Sheepshanks evidently saw a problem and acted to deal with it. Evans seems to confuse allowing people to do their jobs with abrogating responsibility to intervene when required.
Going back to MM, Evans perhaps could have acted when he saw how toxic it was getting with the fans and things might have turned out differently. Contrast the Cobbold's reaction to the Robson zombie incident. Not on the same level maybe but the board knew how important the partnership between manager and fans is and took action to deliver a mild admonition.
On your other points, I had no idea that Birmingham will definitely be deducted 15 points and that will certainly help us. As regards the losses thing I too am an old git who used to work in a multinational company. I was FD of a stock exchange listed company operating in Europe and the USA. And you're right; if there are losses in a subsidiary its a handy tax mitigating factor, as is the cross charging between companies to move profits between companies and mitigate tax.
And Evans may well save a million in tax through his losses at ITFC. But the key word here is mitigation. As a board we never bought companies in order to turn them in to loss makers. We did have one such and at no point did anyone get delighted at how much money we were losing. We could recoup some of it tax wise but the conversation was always about how we could turn it round to make profit. I'm sure Evans and his people will be looking pretty regularly at how he can do this at ITFC and if the view is it can't be done he will look to sell. My comment that he will do so is of course an opinion and I could turn out to be wrong.
That's the great thing about fans forums; one person's opinion against another's with a sprinkling of fact, conjecture and of course a bit of ITK thrown in to make it a fine and often enlightening entertainment. | | | |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 09:26 - Oct 22 with 2571 views | Swansea_Blue |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 13:47 - Oct 21 by eireblue |
Yea good post, but ......who knew Norris liked hats so much. [Post edited 21 Oct 2018 16:49]
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Seems to be fascinated with virgins too. This one has potential... |  |
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| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 09:57 - Oct 22 with 2481 views | BLUEBEAT |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 17:59 - Oct 21 by ElephantintheRoom |
As an observation on your observation, Burley was pretty hopeless in his early years and would have been fired with a less indulgent chairman than Sheepshanks. The solution was to bring in experienced coaches - Hamilton first, then Houston, both of whom turned seasons around in the twinkling of an eye because they knew what they were doing. Your 'Peter Principle' is flawed in that Hurst has no experience of working at clubs where he is utterly isolated. He is in a hopeless position, made worse by his arrogance on entering the club when he alienated senior players and staff When all is said and done, the position is not irretrevable. Bart will return now 'Gerks' has made a mistake and a win gets Town out of the bottom four. Birmingham are relegated already through a 15 point deduction, Rotherham are too useless to survive. It will take some doing to be relegated this year. Finally as an old git previously high up in a multinational, losses in one country's subsiduary were distinctly useful - as was the ability to cross charge time and services. I'm pretty sure Evans makes a seven figure killing every year out of Town for no effort whatsoever. |
This post gives me a bit of hope. |  |
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| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 10:19 - Oct 22 with 2450 views | CoachRob |
Maybe got this wrong NorrisHatter but are you saying senior management should take control of transfer policy and tactics? Sort of pushing football responsibilities to the "talent" at the top or give it to an algorithm. You fail to mention Neil and Adkins both former premier league managers struggling away near the bottom. |  | | |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 12:31 - Oct 22 with 2351 views | NorrisHatter |
| The Hurst situation — Three observations on 10:19 - Oct 22 by CoachRob |
Maybe got this wrong NorrisHatter but are you saying senior management should take control of transfer policy and tactics? Sort of pushing football responsibilities to the "talent" at the top or give it to an algorithm. You fail to mention Neil and Adkins both former premier league managers struggling away near the bottom. |
No, not at all. Senior management (in consultation with their team) should set the parameters and targets for their team members and agree what resources are available to enable the targets to be achieved. Then they should allow team members to do their jobs, but continue to provide support. The point is "resources" aren't just employees and money; they may include bringing in experts to mentor or provide specialist advice. They shouldn't step in and do the team members job for them though, which is what I think you're alluding to.
I don't doubt that Evans sets the parameters and targets and laid out what financial resources are available for the managers he has employed, but then it seems he just steps away and doesn't consider the rest (arguably Milne's job in any case, but what evidence do we have of him doing it). That's what I mean about Evans abrogating his responsibility, not that he should personally handle transfers, any more than the CEO of an oil company should be (or indeed would be capable of) telling people how to design drilling rigs
Your Neil and Adkins point opens a whole new fascinating discussion. Why are managers successful in one place but not in another? There are tons of football books but I'm not aware of one on this topic. The best I can offer on why really successful people suddenly fail is "Fooled by Randomness". Its a fascinating read. | | | |
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