Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 15:59 - Apr 27 with 1571 views | bluelagos |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 15:48 - Apr 27 by StokieBlue | People can only post their anecdotal experiences by definition these are precise. The police post wide ranging statements which by definition are not precise. The two things can both be true. I think you would be surprised if your cycle ride took you through central London on a sunny weekend. That doesn't mean that nationwide it isn't being observed well. That isn't much good to people living in the places where it isn't being observed as well though. SB [Post edited 27 Apr 2020 15:50]
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People's observations are of course true. But so many people extrapolate what they see (I know I do) and assume it is the case all over. They also often misinterpret what they see, assuming people are doing xyz when they may have perfectly legitimate reason to be out and about. I'll give an example, I was asked by a neighbour why I was out and explained I was doing a shop for someone who was self isolating. But on the face of it, I am out ignoring the guidelines. Which is why it is surely worthwhile stepping back and considering what other evidence there is on the lockdown which can give us a genuine feeling for how well it is being observed? The figure that sealed it for me is that tube journeys are down by 85%. That clearly indicates most people are not going to work and has to be a good thing. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:01 - Apr 27 with 1568 views | Melford |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 15:19 - Apr 27 by StokieBlue | You've conceded yourself that your view is skewed by being in the countryside. You've cited one section of the country. You've not been into a big city so you have no frame of reference for your view. There are definitely a lot more people around in London. You can either accept that or not, it's up to you. I agree that on the whole it's being observed countrywide but that doesn't mean that in certain specific places it's not been observed as well. SB |
That is the problem, I live in the middle of nowhere in the place I grew up so I know loads of footpaths where I won't see another person for a few hours, if you're living in Nelson Mandela House 15 storeys up in the middle of London and you don't have a garden and the only green space you can get to is the same park that thousands around you live near then it's a different story. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:04 - Apr 27 with 1561 views | NewcyBlue |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 14:27 - Apr 27 by Lord_Lucan | Fair enough, I am actually half southern libtard. There was a great radio phone in the other night about people ignoring the lockdown and going to parks and beaches, loads of people were phoning and saying that they were still social distancing even though they were going out. The second half of the phone in was mainly irate northerners saying that they were all staying in. My mate works in Sudbury and has been working from home but he had to go in last week. He got HR to give him a letter saying it was important work in case he was pulled up by Babylon. He sent me a text saying that Sudbury was like a normal day with people shopping, buying ice creams and fish and chips. Gotta say I think elderly people (anyone older than me) are as bad |
I had a decent ride the other day, ended up down at Roker. Fish and chip shop open for takeaways like normal, people eating their fish and chips on the beach, looked lovely. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:04 - Apr 27 with 1565 views | bluelagos |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:01 - Apr 27 by Melford | That is the problem, I live in the middle of nowhere in the place I grew up so I know loads of footpaths where I won't see another person for a few hours, if you're living in Nelson Mandela House 15 storeys up in the middle of London and you don't have a garden and the only green space you can get to is the same park that thousands around you live near then it's a different story. |
Think it was Guthers who suggested opening up more of the green space in London. Does seem ridiculous to be encouraging people to do exercise but restricting the spaces they can use, then complaining they are all too close. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:06 - Apr 27 with 1555 views | bluelagos |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:04 - Apr 27 by NewcyBlue | I had a decent ride the other day, ended up down at Roker. Fish and chip shop open for takeaways like normal, people eating their fish and chips on the beach, looked lovely. |
Dribbling... Think Fish and chips is going to be right up there on my to do list when the lockdown allows. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:12 - Apr 27 with 1542 views | homer_123 |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 15:59 - Apr 27 by bluelagos | People's observations are of course true. But so many people extrapolate what they see (I know I do) and assume it is the case all over. They also often misinterpret what they see, assuming people are doing xyz when they may have perfectly legitimate reason to be out and about. I'll give an example, I was asked by a neighbour why I was out and explained I was doing a shop for someone who was self isolating. But on the face of it, I am out ignoring the guidelines. Which is why it is surely worthwhile stepping back and considering what other evidence there is on the lockdown which can give us a genuine feeling for how well it is being observed? The figure that sealed it for me is that tube journeys are down by 85%. That clearly indicates most people are not going to work and has to be a good thing. |
I don't think it is a case of extrapolating. I've posted, for example, that we've seen a visible increase in the numbers out and about compared with 7 to 10 days ago - given nothing has changed, one can only draw a simple conclusion. Add to that, you are seeing your teenage couples doing their thing...unless it's Norfolk they are not brother and sister and no way, at that age, are they living together. Lots of that going on this weekend. Add to that dog walkers, in their 60s plus walking dogs with other couples. Again - there is no way they live together and they were not social distancing. As I stated, that's not to say the majority aren't but here in N Essex it's hard not to conclude that some are relaxing their approach. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:14 - Apr 27 with 1537 views | StokieBlue |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 15:59 - Apr 27 by bluelagos | People's observations are of course true. But so many people extrapolate what they see (I know I do) and assume it is the case all over. They also often misinterpret what they see, assuming people are doing xyz when they may have perfectly legitimate reason to be out and about. I'll give an example, I was asked by a neighbour why I was out and explained I was doing a shop for someone who was self isolating. But on the face of it, I am out ignoring the guidelines. Which is why it is surely worthwhile stepping back and considering what other evidence there is on the lockdown which can give us a genuine feeling for how well it is being observed? The figure that sealed it for me is that tube journeys are down by 85%. That clearly indicates most people are not going to work and has to be a good thing. |
Agreed that other sources rather than anecdotal give a good overview of the lockdown on larger scales. That doesn't make specific examples wrong though. Infections can still be transmitted even from small scale breakdowns. London is such a densely populated place that people don't need to take the tube for the place to be busy. Take Hackney for instance, it has a population 3 times the size of Ipswich in an area less than half the size. Not really sure your neighbour should be quizzing you about your shopping. That's very different to having a G&T in the park with some cheese or standing about chatting well within 2m and blocking the paths so nobody else can get by and socially distance. SB [Post edited 27 Apr 2020 16:15]
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:16 - Apr 27 with 1532 views | homer_123 |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:14 - Apr 27 by StokieBlue | Agreed that other sources rather than anecdotal give a good overview of the lockdown on larger scales. That doesn't make specific examples wrong though. Infections can still be transmitted even from small scale breakdowns. London is such a densely populated place that people don't need to take the tube for the place to be busy. Take Hackney for instance, it has a population 3 times the size of Ipswich in an area less than half the size. Not really sure your neighbour should be quizzing you about your shopping. That's very different to having a G&T in the park with some cheese or standing about chatting well within 2m and blocking the paths so nobody else can get by and socially distance. SB [Post edited 27 Apr 2020 16:15]
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What a way to ruin a G&T...cheese! |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:29 - Apr 27 with 1521 views | bluelagos |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:12 - Apr 27 by homer_123 | I don't think it is a case of extrapolating. I've posted, for example, that we've seen a visible increase in the numbers out and about compared with 7 to 10 days ago - given nothing has changed, one can only draw a simple conclusion. Add to that, you are seeing your teenage couples doing their thing...unless it's Norfolk they are not brother and sister and no way, at that age, are they living together. Lots of that going on this weekend. Add to that dog walkers, in their 60s plus walking dogs with other couples. Again - there is no way they live together and they were not social distancing. As I stated, that's not to say the majority aren't but here in N Essex it's hard not to conclude that some are relaxing their approach. |
"one can only draw a simple conclusion" I do have some sympathy, but let me paint a picture (that could of course be boll0cks) DIYers are now getting out to get some more bits for the house. Cyclists are discovering the bike in the shed needs some tlc from Halfords. Shoppers who stocked up now have cupboards that need restocking. Some people who weren't out exercising are now more willing to go out (as they bored) So yeah, there may be more signs of people out and about but to assume therefore that the lockdown is failing is an assumption that may/may not be true. It could just be that more people are getting outside inline with the govt guidelines, than were before. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:31 - Apr 27 with 1516 views | bluelagos |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:16 - Apr 27 by homer_123 | What a way to ruin a G&T...cheese! |
G&T and cheese? Doesn't happen too much in the sticks tbf :-) |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:32 - Apr 27 with 1514 views | StokieBlue |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:31 - Apr 27 by bluelagos | G&T and cheese? Doesn't happen too much in the sticks tbf :-) |
To be fair the examples I saw were red wine with cheese of G&T on it's own. Not entirely sure why I wrote G&T with cheese - not something I'll be trying any time soon! SB |  | |  |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:41 - Apr 27 with 1498 views | homer_123 |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:29 - Apr 27 by bluelagos | "one can only draw a simple conclusion" I do have some sympathy, but let me paint a picture (that could of course be boll0cks) DIYers are now getting out to get some more bits for the house. Cyclists are discovering the bike in the shed needs some tlc from Halfords. Shoppers who stocked up now have cupboards that need restocking. Some people who weren't out exercising are now more willing to go out (as they bored) So yeah, there may be more signs of people out and about but to assume therefore that the lockdown is failing is an assumption that may/may not be true. It could just be that more people are getting outside inline with the govt guidelines, than were before. |
You may have missed the main point of my post (apologies to you if you haven't). Two observations: 1. More people are out and about (which within itself, as you say isn't an issue) but 2. Teenage couples who clearly do not live together are absolutely not adhering to social distancing, groups of younger people about together (three groups of 6 or more older teenagers and young 20s - again, no social distancing and again, likelihood of them living together?). Numerous groups of dog walkers, again, generally elderly in the 60s (so vulnerable group in itself), no social distancing and clearly not living together). That's the big big difference I've noticed in N Essex in the past 7 to 10 days. Again, that isn't to say the majority are not adhering as they are but the conclusion, clearly, one can begin to draw is that 'some' people are no longer following the guidelines. Which is a problem. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:51 - Apr 27 with 1483 views | bluelagos |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:41 - Apr 27 by homer_123 | You may have missed the main point of my post (apologies to you if you haven't). Two observations: 1. More people are out and about (which within itself, as you say isn't an issue) but 2. Teenage couples who clearly do not live together are absolutely not adhering to social distancing, groups of younger people about together (three groups of 6 or more older teenagers and young 20s - again, no social distancing and again, likelihood of them living together?). Numerous groups of dog walkers, again, generally elderly in the 60s (so vulnerable group in itself), no social distancing and clearly not living together). That's the big big difference I've noticed in N Essex in the past 7 to 10 days. Again, that isn't to say the majority are not adhering as they are but the conclusion, clearly, one can begin to draw is that 'some' people are no longer following the guidelines. Which is a problem. |
'some' people are no longer following the guidelines. Absolutely :-) But given that we have overall very good compliance, still, I fail to see that as a reason for people to be overly worried. We are on the right track (thankfully) and a few idiots won't stop that. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:52 - Apr 27 with 1481 views | Pinewoodblue | Suspect, if you could breakdown the stats by region, more Londoners would be in favour of easing restrictions than elsewhere. They seem to think they are ahead of the rest of the country. Any increase in tube traffic will be matched, soon after, by an increase in new cases. Friend drives London bus averaging well over 200 passengers per shift. Locally never seen more than 2-3 passengers when I see a No. 13 and they are often empty. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:52 - Apr 27 with 1482 views | Radlett_blue |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:41 - Apr 27 by homer_123 | You may have missed the main point of my post (apologies to you if you haven't). Two observations: 1. More people are out and about (which within itself, as you say isn't an issue) but 2. Teenage couples who clearly do not live together are absolutely not adhering to social distancing, groups of younger people about together (three groups of 6 or more older teenagers and young 20s - again, no social distancing and again, likelihood of them living together?). Numerous groups of dog walkers, again, generally elderly in the 60s (so vulnerable group in itself), no social distancing and clearly not living together). That's the big big difference I've noticed in N Essex in the past 7 to 10 days. Again, that isn't to say the majority are not adhering as they are but the conclusion, clearly, one can begin to draw is that 'some' people are no longer following the guidelines. Which is a problem. |
Not really. As the point of the lockdown is to limit the growth of the virus so as not to put too much strain on the NHS, it isn't actually a big problem if a minority are breaching the guidelines. The difficult thing is how to move out of lockdown carefully & gradually. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:55 - Apr 27 with 1471 views | sparks |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:52 - Apr 27 by Radlett_blue | Not really. As the point of the lockdown is to limit the growth of the virus so as not to put too much strain on the NHS, it isn't actually a big problem if a minority are breaching the guidelines. The difficult thing is how to move out of lockdown carefully & gradually. |
Its interesting- the derided idea of herd immunity is still essential it seems. We can either flatten the curve- in which case herd immunity is the long term solution, or clamp down so hard that the virus runs out of hosts and disappears (at least on our island). We dont seem to be aiming for the latter. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 17:06 - Apr 27 with 1460 views | sparks |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:55 - Apr 27 by sparks | Its interesting- the derided idea of herd immunity is still essential it seems. We can either flatten the curve- in which case herd immunity is the long term solution, or clamp down so hard that the virus runs out of hosts and disappears (at least on our island). We dont seem to be aiming for the latter. |
The list of businesses saying they are re opening is growing. I think thats notable in terms of the attitude towards lockdown now. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 17:14 - Apr 27 with 1450 views | Lord_Lucan |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 17:06 - Apr 27 by sparks | The list of businesses saying they are re opening is growing. I think thats notable in terms of the attitude towards lockdown now. |
My mate who went to Sudbury was amazed (and furious) that The Works was open. That's hardly essential is it? |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 17:18 - Apr 27 with 1447 views | sparks |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 17:14 - Apr 27 by Lord_Lucan | My mate who went to Sudbury was amazed (and furious) that The Works was open. That's hardly essential is it? |
Timpsons is set to re open. And greggs. It both reflects the increasingly relaxed mindset, and promotes it. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 17:50 - Apr 27 with 1424 views | Lord_Lucan |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 17:18 - Apr 27 by sparks | Timpsons is set to re open. And greggs. It both reflects the increasingly relaxed mindset, and promotes it. |
I can understand Timpsons, but Greggs less so, however if you allow one type of food outlet then it's difficult to stop another. The Works though is baffling. Halfords and B&Q have been successfully operating click and collect but B&Q have now decided to open the doors and now that they have I wonder if Halfords will. I wouldn't have allowed B&Q to open their doors. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 17:56 - Apr 27 with 1416 views | Ace_High1 |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 17:18 - Apr 27 by sparks | Timpsons is set to re open. And greggs. It both reflects the increasingly relaxed mindset, and promotes it. |
This is what I was saying last week. This gives the impression that restrictions are relaxing and we are getting back to normal. Would be interested in what EG's thoughts are on this as it will just encourage people to start going out and about again. |  | |  |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 18:05 - Apr 27 with 1405 views | GlasgowBlue |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 15:45 - Apr 27 by bluelagos | My point is that none of us (me, you or anyone) has an overview but those who do (The police) have been stating that the majority of people have and continue to follow the guidelines. Which seems to be odds with what a number of posters post / believe. |
Government stats have shown an increase in traffic and an increase in apple map usage in the last week. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 18:09 - Apr 27 with 1400 views | GlasgowBlue |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 16:55 - Apr 27 by sparks | Its interesting- the derided idea of herd immunity is still essential it seems. We can either flatten the curve- in which case herd immunity is the long term solution, or clamp down so hard that the virus runs out of hosts and disappears (at least on our island). We dont seem to be aiming for the latter. |
Unless we shut every shop and place of work down, and seal everybody in their house for six months it is impossible for the virus to run out. There has to be some herd immunity build up until a vaccine becomes available. I can see the lockdown being relaxed and then as soon as the data shows that the NHS capacity could be overrun then we will have another couple of months of what we are doing now. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 19:51 - Apr 27 with 1347 views | Lord_Lucan |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 18:09 - Apr 27 by GlasgowBlue | Unless we shut every shop and place of work down, and seal everybody in their house for six months it is impossible for the virus to run out. There has to be some herd immunity build up until a vaccine becomes available. I can see the lockdown being relaxed and then as soon as the data shows that the NHS capacity could be overrun then we will have another couple of months of what we are doing now. |
Essentially this, rolling lockdowns. |  |
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Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 20:05 - Apr 27 with 1340 views | Ewan_Oozami |
Everyone stating the lockdown isn't holding... on 19:51 - Apr 27 by Lord_Lucan | Essentially this, rolling lockdowns. |
'The Rolling Lockdowns" - they were a great band.... |  |
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