| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. 19:16 - Jun 20 with 4063 views | Shawsey |
I remember when we were in the low 100s when the government said if we kept it below 20,000 deaths, we would have done well. As we are now more than double that figure, is the government going to admit that they have handled the whole situation terribly. Matt Hancock is a disgrace and should be the first of many to go. Which ever side of the political divide you sit, you must all agree that this Conservative government has cost far to many lives and suffering. Sorry for the rant, but I am disgusted how this lot are handling this. |  | | |  |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 21:50 - Jun 20 with 2392 views | itfcjoe |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 21:47 - Jun 20 by Bluesquid |
Plenty of people speculate here so i don't see how it hurts for me to bring this up on the forum, furthermore my speculation is backed up by a well known British epidemiologist. [Post edited 20 Jun 2020 21:49]
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Who? |  |
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| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 21:55 - Jun 20 with 2366 views | Bluesquid |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 21:50 - Jun 20 by itfcjoe |
Who? |
Professor Neil Ferguson.
"Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said."
“It might be as much as half or two thirds of the deaths we see, because these are people at the end of their lives or have underlying conditions so these are considerations"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus- |  | | |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 22:00 - Jun 20 with 2372 views | itfcjoe |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 21:55 - Jun 20 by Bluesquid |
Professor Neil Ferguson.
"Up to two thirds of people who die from coronavirus in the next nine months are likely to have died this year from other causes, a government advisor has said."
“It might be as much as half or two thirds of the deaths we see, because these are people at the end of their lives or have underlying conditions so these are considerations"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus- |
I can only read the start of the article as behind paywalls but the bit I can read says there could be 20k deaths but may be a lot less.....now that figure has more than tripled I doubt the 1/2 to 2/3 prediction stands up | |
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| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 22:07 - Jun 20 with 2334 views | Bluesquid |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 22:00 - Jun 20 by itfcjoe |
I can only read the start of the article as behind paywalls but the bit I can read says there could be 20k deaths but may be a lot less.....now that figure has more than tripled I doubt the 1/2 to 2/3 prediction stands up |
20k was mentioned but he admits that they don't know what the level of excess deaths will be.
"We don’t know what the level of excess deaths will be in the epidemic, in that, by the end of the year what proportion of people who died from covid would have died?" | | | |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 22:15 - Jun 20 with 2330 views | itfcjoe |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 22:07 - Jun 20 by Bluesquid |
20k was mentioned but he admits that they don't know what the level of excess deaths will be.
"We don’t know what the level of excess deaths will be in the epidemic, in that, by the end of the year what proportion of people who died from covid would have died?" |
Well he’s talking about 20k as an upper limit of covid deaths before excess deaths were considered and we are at something like 45k for those so again this quote is just no longer even close to relevant.
If you think 20k will die of it and 1/2 to 2/3a May have died anyway That is 10-13k people, when 45k die there is no science that just sees that 10-13k people become 23-30k who may have died anyway | |
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| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 22:28 - Jun 20 with 2306 views | Bluesquid |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 22:15 - Jun 20 by itfcjoe |
Well he’s talking about 20k as an upper limit of covid deaths before excess deaths were considered and we are at something like 45k for those so again this quote is just no longer even close to relevant.
If you think 20k will die of it and 1/2 to 2/3a May have died anyway That is 10-13k people, when 45k die there is no science that just sees that 10-13k people become 23-30k who may have died anyway |
It's the same science that applies to the 20k just that more people than he expected (article is from the 25th March) contracted the disease who were going to die anyway but very sad it is anyway you look at it. | | | |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 22:42 - Jun 20 with 2310 views | bluejacko |
And how many more idiots are going to die if they keep up these mass gatherings?
You really can’t make it up!they have been asked by the Government not to do this but no they risk not only their own lives but also the police etc that have to be there.
Shoot me down,insult me I don’t give a monkeys if this does not stop there will be a second wave.😡 | | | |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 23:11 - Jun 20 with 2296 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 21:37 - Jun 20 by Bluesquid |
Every death is very sad and tragic but how many of these would have died this year anyway if they hadn't been infected?
I think it's a fair question to ask and i think it may even be as many as 2 thirds of this number. |
That is where the excess deaths over the average comes in.
If that goes negative by 2/3 of the amount it has been positive you will be correct.
Please do refer back to this in December to apologise for being badly out with your estimate.
I do hate the idea it is only nearly dead people suffering and they were going to die soon anyway. It is not. On top of that the survivors from intensive care are not coming out unaffected so I understand. |  |
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| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 23:13 - Jun 20 with 2294 views | vapour_trail |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 21:28 - Jun 20 by Bent_double |
Building the Nightingale hospitals seems to be the only thing they have got right in the last 4 months, but they've even managed to mess that up by leaving them virtually empty whilst millions of standard operations get cancelled in other hospitals as they deal with the covid threat. |
A lot of the support for workers has been good and was introduced quickly. The financial packages seem in the main, well considered.
The public health aspect has been treated as a communications management exercise rather than a duty of care to the vulnerable.
Overall, it appears we have been failed on a world beating scale, by our elected leadership. The electorate cannot be trusted to see this. |  |
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| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 23:26 - Jun 20 with 2278 views | xrayspecs |
I am sure the govt could have done better albeit no one has had to manage this before. PPE stockpiling and setting up track and trace seem to be the key errors.
The 20k figure was not a government estimate, it came from Prof Vallance, who is an advisor, it also contrasts with the 600k figure from some of the academics. On that basis, they have done well.
The big issue is how the public follow guidance to keep social distance.
So, I do not agree with your OP. | | | |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 23:32 - Jun 20 with 2263 views | Bluesquid |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 23:11 - Jun 20 by Nthsuffolkblue |
That is where the excess deaths over the average comes in.
If that goes negative by 2/3 of the amount it has been positive you will be correct.
Please do refer back to this in December to apologise for being badly out with your estimate.
I do hate the idea it is only nearly dead people suffering and they were going to die soon anyway. It is not. On top of that the survivors from intensive care are not coming out unaffected so I understand. |
Ok fair enough, just out of interest though do you think that the epidemiologist is well out with his estimation of 2 thirds of the 20k then? | | | |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 23:32 - Jun 20 with 2272 views | jeera |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 23:26 - Jun 20 by xrayspecs |
I am sure the govt could have done better albeit no one has had to manage this before. PPE stockpiling and setting up track and trace seem to be the key errors.
The 20k figure was not a government estimate, it came from Prof Vallance, who is an advisor, it also contrasts with the 600k figure from some of the academics. On that basis, they have done well.
The big issue is how the public follow guidance to keep social distance.
So, I do not agree with your OP. |
The 20,000 was quoted publically as a 'target' when introducing measures; i.e. lockdown etc.
The half million was an estimation put forward as a mortality figure that would be quite likely without implementing those measures. |  |
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| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 23:38 - Jun 20 with 2266 views | xrayspecs |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 23:32 - Jun 20 by jeera |
The 20,000 was quoted publically as a 'target' when introducing measures; i.e. lockdown etc.
The half million was an estimation put forward as a mortality figure that would be quite likely without implementing those measures. |
The 20k was put forward by an advisor to the government, not the government.
Sorry, not a great fan of the government, but you do need to get your facts straight. | | | |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 00:26 - Jun 21 with 2256 views | jeera |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 23:38 - Jun 20 by xrayspecs |
The 20k was put forward by an advisor to the government, not the government.
Sorry, not a great fan of the government, but you do need to get your facts straight. |
I do have my facts straight thanks.
I don't care who originally came up with that figure - I didn't say it was a government estimation, I said it was widely reported and repeated.
As I say, the half million was the number banded about as an estimation for mortality if lockdown measures weren't implemented.
I have no idea what it is you think you're contesting tbh.
[Post edited 21 Jun 2020 0:39]
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| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 09:20 - Jun 21 with 2181 views | eireblue |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 23:26 - Jun 20 by xrayspecs |
I am sure the govt could have done better albeit no one has had to manage this before. PPE stockpiling and setting up track and trace seem to be the key errors.
The 20k figure was not a government estimate, it came from Prof Vallance, who is an advisor, it also contrasts with the 600k figure from some of the academics. On that basis, they have done well.
The big issue is how the public follow guidance to keep social distance.
So, I do not agree with your OP. |
The reason governments do exercises is to test whether they are prepared for certain things.
That was done in 2016.
“The UK’s preparedness and response, in terms of its plans, policies and capability, is currently not sufficient to cope with the extreme demands of a severe pandemic that will have a nationwide impact across all sectors,”
The government were aware that the U.K. was not prepared for a pandemic, and they had recommendations.
The government have not done well on any measure. |  | | |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 09:27 - Jun 21 with 2178 views | Mullet |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 20:45 - Jun 20 by bluelagos |
But it's been an apparent success according to our PM. He is proud of our response...
I disagree with the poster who said Hancock is being lined up to take the can. I think it is the govt advisers (SAGE) who are being lined up - and it is hard to see how they come out of it well. That said the poor govt response (nightingale aside) is sod all to do with SAGE and can't be passed off as poor advice. |
I heard from a Tory bod he was to be fair. It's been a rumour amongst them for a long time. He didn't say if it was due to an earlier disagreement with Cummings or not. Apparently that weird laughing interview was when it became an open secret.
Admittedly this was all gossip passed down to me, but my local MP is Brady who is head of the little boys club in the Tory party so might have some merit. |  |
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| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 09:30 - Jun 21 with 2173 views | Mullet |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 23:13 - Jun 20 by vapour_trail |
A lot of the support for workers has been good and was introduced quickly. The financial packages seem in the main, well considered.
The public health aspect has been treated as a communications management exercise rather than a duty of care to the vulnerable.
Overall, it appears we have been failed on a world beating scale, by our elected leadership. The electorate cannot be trusted to see this. |
The furlough scheme was the showstopper undoubtedly and perhaps stopped real anarchy and unrest breaking out earlier. It will be interesting to see how much that is pushed when the pressure mounts and the next election starts to come up.
I daresay it'll be the backbone of the Tory campaign and they will happily sacrifice as many of this cabinet as they can to cling on. The test will be how much residual anger and hardship there will be still floating around. | |
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| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 09:36 - Jun 21 with 2167 views | Shawsey |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 19:41 - Jun 20 by jaykay |
so callis was right |
I don't know that name, but yes, he/she was right if he/she insisted that the Tory party are making a right mess of things. | | | |
| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 10:04 - Jun 21 with 2140 views | hoppy |
With those kind of numbers of lives lost, it makes me even more thankful that KJ actually came home from hospital and is recovering... when so many people have lost their partners and loved ones to this. |  |
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| 42,589 lives now lost to Covid-19 in the UK. on 10:21 - Jun 21 with 2113 views | tractordownsouth |
It's not even to do with ideology, it's just a question of competence. My views on the Tory party are clear, but their previous leaders wouldn't have allowed this level of laziness and failure. |  |
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