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A month after the beaches opened 09:40 - Jul 16 with 3560 viewsGlasgowBlue

And nearly two weeks after the pubs did the same, we’ve not seen any signs of a second spike. Infections and deaths are down each day.

There is so much about this virus we don’t understand but I’m surprised that there hasn’t been even a small increase in infections and deaths.

Saars ran from Nov 2002 and was pretty much gone by June 2003 with a small number of cases after and Completely disappeared in 2004. No second wave. COVID is 70% same structure. Could we see the same?

Or am I being too optimistic?

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A month after the beaches opened on 09:42 - Jul 16 with 2541 viewsGeoffSentence

One day back in the office and my daughter is coughing and spluttering all over the place. You know what I am thinking. Hopefully I am being too pessimistic.

Out damned scot Out I say
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A month after the beaches opened on 09:48 - Jul 16 with 2491 viewsSwansea_Blue

It's strange, as we're seeing clear spikes in other countries that loosen lock down rules. I suppose it depends on how people are behaving. Apart forma few high profile examples, most people in the UK seem to be pretty cautious and observing social distancing rules. We also had bans on indoor gatherings and no household mixing when those beach incidents and protests took place, so that may be a factor in why those haven't kicked much off.

And we've been lightly stricter and slower in Wales and Scotland, and those countries aren't seeing any cases (or very, very few) compared to still a significant, if reduced number in England.

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A month after the beaches opened on 09:49 - Jul 16 with 2483 viewsStokieBlue

SARS and C19 whilst being from the same family are actually quite different.

SARS had a higher mortality rate and was less infectious. The combination of these two factors meant it died off due to it's evolutionary architecture. C19 is more infectious and has a lower mortality rate meaning it can affect far more people more quickly and ultimately kill far more people even with a lower mortality rate. C19 also seems to be transmissible without symptoms which wasn't the case for SARS making it far harder to contain.

This can be seen from the fact "only" 8000 people contracted SARS and 800 died.

SB

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A month after the beaches opened on 09:49 - Jul 16 with 2483 viewsPinewoodblue

Far too optimistic.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#daily-new-cases?utm_source=App

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A month after the beaches opened on 09:58 - Jul 16 with 2424 viewsSteve_M

There was an uptick in deaths, and hospital admissions, around 25 June (I'll see if I can dig out the data in a bit - see second tweet). I'm not sure the impact of the pubs would necessarily filter through until next week.

Swansea is correct that people have definitely stayed cautious, the fact that there was only one road in Soho held up as an example of people being irresponsible suggests that other examples weren't enormously prevalent. Offices still remain shut and public transport is very quiet.

It's far too early to be comfortable that this is over. The examples in the US aren't encouraging, although in many of those states it is a delayed first wave rather than a second one.




This thread is optimistic but worth reading, it is obviously a trend based on current behaviour though.



[Post edited 16 Jul 2020 10:02]

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A month after the beaches opened on 10:17 - Jul 16 with 2350 viewsbluelagos

Am not expert - but I think the key is to think of the virus like the flu.

(Don't anyone shoot me - I mean in terms on transmission - not in terms of impact)

Namely it spreads through germs on people, some in the air (sneezing etc.) So the key is closeness to infected people, number of interactions and avoiding things likely crowds on say tubes etc.

So why on earth anyone thought crowds on beaches would be a risk I have no idea. People go to the beach, sit in their groups with very little mixing interactions with strangers. Same with people sitting sun bathing in parks and/or making use of the outside.

Pubs are of course totally different but from what I have seen, 95% of pub goers are thankfully behaving sensibly.

Having said all that - the reason flu increases in winter is because so many of our interactions move indoors from outdoors. So there is a real risk of a spike come the winter if people go back to behaving as they did preCV.

So I think CV is here to stay, it far easier to spread than SARS was and is far more widespread.

*Just my opinions - am no doctor.

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A month after the beaches opened on 10:23 - Jul 16 with 2309 viewssparks

A month after the beaches opened on 10:17 - Jul 16 by bluelagos

Am not expert - but I think the key is to think of the virus like the flu.

(Don't anyone shoot me - I mean in terms on transmission - not in terms of impact)

Namely it spreads through germs on people, some in the air (sneezing etc.) So the key is closeness to infected people, number of interactions and avoiding things likely crowds on say tubes etc.

So why on earth anyone thought crowds on beaches would be a risk I have no idea. People go to the beach, sit in their groups with very little mixing interactions with strangers. Same with people sitting sun bathing in parks and/or making use of the outside.

Pubs are of course totally different but from what I have seen, 95% of pub goers are thankfully behaving sensibly.

Having said all that - the reason flu increases in winter is because so many of our interactions move indoors from outdoors. So there is a real risk of a spike come the winter if people go back to behaving as they did preCV.

So I think CV is here to stay, it far easier to spread than SARS was and is far more widespread.

*Just my opinions - am no doctor.


Flu and colds also increase in winter because the viruses last less time in UV light, on surfaces.

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A month after the beaches opened on 10:24 - Jul 16 with 2301 viewsSwansea_Blue

A month after the beaches opened on 10:17 - Jul 16 by bluelagos

Am not expert - but I think the key is to think of the virus like the flu.

(Don't anyone shoot me - I mean in terms on transmission - not in terms of impact)

Namely it spreads through germs on people, some in the air (sneezing etc.) So the key is closeness to infected people, number of interactions and avoiding things likely crowds on say tubes etc.

So why on earth anyone thought crowds on beaches would be a risk I have no idea. People go to the beach, sit in their groups with very little mixing interactions with strangers. Same with people sitting sun bathing in parks and/or making use of the outside.

Pubs are of course totally different but from what I have seen, 95% of pub goers are thankfully behaving sensibly.

Having said all that - the reason flu increases in winter is because so many of our interactions move indoors from outdoors. So there is a real risk of a spike come the winter if people go back to behaving as they did preCV.

So I think CV is here to stay, it far easier to spread than SARS was and is far more widespread.

*Just my opinions - am no doctor.


A lot of the beach outrage was based on telephoto shots with reduced focal length too. Many of the aerial shots showed people spaced out. It would still have been too crowded for my linking, but that's got little to do with it.

It's why masks could be so important once we're back indoors much more.

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A month after the beaches opened on 10:25 - Jul 16 with 2301 viewsgiant_ullaa

A month after the beaches opened on 10:17 - Jul 16 by bluelagos

Am not expert - but I think the key is to think of the virus like the flu.

(Don't anyone shoot me - I mean in terms on transmission - not in terms of impact)

Namely it spreads through germs on people, some in the air (sneezing etc.) So the key is closeness to infected people, number of interactions and avoiding things likely crowds on say tubes etc.

So why on earth anyone thought crowds on beaches would be a risk I have no idea. People go to the beach, sit in their groups with very little mixing interactions with strangers. Same with people sitting sun bathing in parks and/or making use of the outside.

Pubs are of course totally different but from what I have seen, 95% of pub goers are thankfully behaving sensibly.

Having said all that - the reason flu increases in winter is because so many of our interactions move indoors from outdoors. So there is a real risk of a spike come the winter if people go back to behaving as they did preCV.

So I think CV is here to stay, it far easier to spread than SARS was and is far more widespread.

*Just my opinions - am no doctor.


The winter could be a total pisser and I'm wonderring how to prepare for it. Heaters and shelter in the garden is the best I've come up with so far.

Not to be a worrywort and this is total hearsay bollox, but while out at a bash in someone's garden the other day, I heard talk of how several 'hedgies' are betting on / assuming they'll be a second wave come November. I know they don't know it all, but given it's their livelihoods, it made my ears prick up.

Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry.
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A month after the beaches opened on 10:26 - Jul 16 with 2292 viewsbluelagos

A month after the beaches opened on 10:23 - Jul 16 by sparks

Flu and colds also increase in winter because the viruses last less time in UV light, on surfaces.


Another reason is cos school kids (super spreaders) spend more time inside than outside too.

Plenty still to understand for sure.

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A month after the beaches opened on 10:29 - Jul 16 with 2277 viewsSwansea_Blue

A month after the beaches opened on 10:26 - Jul 16 by bluelagos

Another reason is cos school kids (super spreaders) spend more time inside than outside too.

Plenty still to understand for sure.


It's going to be an interesting test to have all the kids back in school in September. I might build a bunker!

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A month after the beaches opened on 10:29 - Jul 16 with 2278 viewsbluelagos

A month after the beaches opened on 10:24 - Jul 16 by Swansea_Blue

A lot of the beach outrage was based on telephoto shots with reduced focal length too. Many of the aerial shots showed people spaced out. It would still have been too crowded for my linking, but that's got little to do with it.

It's why masks could be so important once we're back indoors much more.


Indeed - the press and social media do much to feed people's anxiety. It is a spiral.

How many people post "I saw lots of people socially distancing today"? I see like 99% of people socially distancing - but read social media and/or watch the news and you'd think it was far less.

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A month after the beaches opened on 10:30 - Jul 16 with 2268 viewsjeera

A month after the beaches opened on 10:26 - Jul 16 by bluelagos

Another reason is cos school kids (super spreaders) spend more time inside than outside too.

Plenty still to understand for sure.


Children = disease ridden things.

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A month after the beaches opened on 10:32 - Jul 16 with 2261 viewsGeoffSentence

A month after the beaches opened on 09:42 - Jul 16 by GeoffSentence

One day back in the office and my daughter is coughing and spluttering all over the place. You know what I am thinking. Hopefully I am being too pessimistic.


She's stopped now. I think I can stop panicking.

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A month after the beaches opened on 10:38 - Jul 16 with 2245 viewsbluelagos

A month after the beaches opened on 10:30 - Jul 16 by jeera

Children = disease ridden things.


We have found the solution - rather than killing off all the old people - kill off all the children. Job's a goodun :-)

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A month after the beaches opened on 10:53 - Jul 16 with 2179 viewsgordon

Would guess that the vast majority of transmission occurs indoors, so beaches not that relevant. In Florida (I think) restaurants and bars reopened in about early May, and their spike in infections began in mid-June, and it's taken about another month for deaths to start to spike.

We should proceed with enormous caution - if things start to go back to normal in pubs, it could have ramifications for schools and the rest of the economy.
[Post edited 16 Jul 2020 10:54]
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A month after the beaches opened on 10:55 - Jul 16 with 2151 viewsGaryCooper

A month after the beaches opened on 10:30 - Jul 16 by jeera

Children = disease ridden things.


Children= Immunity angels
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A month after the beaches opened on 10:57 - Jul 16 with 2142 viewsPendejo

A month after the beaches opened on 10:38 - Jul 16 by bluelagos

We have found the solution - rather than killing off all the old people - kill off all the children. Job's a goodun :-)


Economic madness!

The children are our future (pensions)

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A month after the beaches opened on 11:04 - Jul 16 with 2116 viewsbluelagos

A month after the beaches opened on 10:57 - Jul 16 by Pendejo

Economic madness!

The children are our future (pensions)


Be positive and stop picking holes in my argument.

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A month after the beaches opened on 11:07 - Jul 16 with 2099 viewsfooters

A month after the beaches opened on 11:04 - Jul 16 by bluelagos

Be positive and stop picking holes in my argument.


I'd meet you half way and suggest a ban on all children and old people.

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A month after the beaches opened on 11:15 - Jul 16 with 2072 viewsGuthrum

It's also worth considering what is meant by "waves" and "spikes".

What we're seeing at the moment are (often localised) flare-ups of the original, first, wave of Covid-19. They are really only bumps on the downward slope of the graph*. We're not seeing sustained, across-the-board climbs in the rates of infection and death.

Some experts, when talking about a second wave, are thinking in terms of the 'flu pandemic of 1918, which had one wave, died away almost completely, then some months later in the early winter a fresh (and much more severe) peak. The real second wave - if it happens at all - will be in about November, with a period of relative calm beforehand.

Obviously, the disease is also at different stages and progressing at varying rates in regions of the world, which may muddy the timing of things somewhat.

If a second wave happens. It may never do so, or be very much milder than the first.


* Altho some places, such as parts of the USA, had barely got on the down-slope before lifting anti-Covid measures, thus are getting worse flare-ups.

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A month after the beaches opened on 11:23 - Jul 16 with 2021 viewsjeera

A month after the beaches opened on 10:57 - Jul 16 by Pendejo

Economic madness!

The children are our future (pensions)


So what you're saying is we should teach them well and let them lead the way?

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A month after the beaches opened on 11:26 - Jul 16 with 1996 viewsKeno

A month after the beaches opened on 11:07 - Jul 16 by footers

I'd meet you half way and suggest a ban on all children and old people.


shouldnt that be all children, old people, Norwich fans and people who like battenburg cake

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A month after the beaches opened on 11:28 - Jul 16 with 1988 viewsfooters

A month after the beaches opened on 11:26 - Jul 16 by Keno

shouldnt that be all children, old people, Norwich fans and people who like battenburg cake


Supporting Norwich is just a very unfortunate handicap. They can't help it.

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A month after the beaches opened on 11:37 - Jul 16 with 1936 viewssolemio

A month after the beaches opened on 11:28 - Jul 16 by footers

Supporting Norwich is just a very unfortunate handicap. They can't help it.


Indeed. If I met someone from Holt, Wroxham or Dereham who supported Ipswich I wouldn't trust them as far as I could throw them. Unless they originally came from Suffolk of course.
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