| 500k have had vaccine first shot 19:41 - Dec 21 with 3217 views | Trequartista |
We really need to concentrate on the positives. OK - 500k is not even 1% of the population but considering this disease has roughly a 1% mortality rate, and is concentrated heavily in the groups getting the vaccine first, then surely once these guys get the second dose, that will see a substantial reduction in the mortality and hospitilisation rates even if the mutant strain substantially increases the cases? And that's before we even get hold of the Oxford vaccine when capacity will ramp up several fold. Am wondering what is going on with the approval of the Oxford vaccine - seems to be taking longer than the Pfizer one, hope there are no issues? |  |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 20:39 - Dec 21 with 3081 views | Ftnfwest |
Haven’t we only got 800,000 doses though. Bearing in mind you need 2? |  | | |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 20:55 - Dec 21 with 3040 views | stantheman |
Just seen that the average age of people dying through covid is 82 and there are 3.2 million over 80's in the UK. The maths of vaccinating everyone of those and all being safe by Easter is over optimistic at best. |  | | |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 20:55 - Dec 21 with 3033 views | giant_stow |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 20:39 - Dec 21 by Ftnfwest |
Haven’t we only got 800,000 doses though. Bearing in mind you need 2? |
I read the other day that there's enough of the 1st one to last until the end of Jan. Next batch arrivals March ish I think, so important to get the astra one approved to plug the gap. |  |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 20:58 - Dec 21 with 3023 views | Trequartista |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 20:39 - Dec 21 by Ftnfwest |
Haven’t we only got 800,000 doses though. Bearing in mind you need 2? |
Yes 800k so far and I read they expecting 4 million by the end of the month, so i assume at least 200k more are guaranteed as I don't think they'd give a first dose to someone without the provision of the second one.
So again, if the 4 million doses arrive as expected, that's 2 million vaccinated by the end of January - a huge chunk of the people getting seriously ill or worse. And that's only the effect on the individual, the herd immunity will start to grow when those vaccinated don't pass on the illness.
I'm reading unconfirmed reports the Oxford vaccine has already been passed as safe by the regulator but the quandary is do they administer the lower first dose that accidentally provided 90% efficacy or the full first dose that provided 65?%. The accidental doses weren't provided to anyone over 55, but soon-to-be-Dame Sarah Gilbert says the immune response didn't weaken in the elderly in the non-accidental samples.
Which gamble will they take? | |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 21:00 - Dec 21 with 3011 views | Churchman |
Isn’t the issue with the Oxford vaccine is that the testing was a mess and even with that mess, the stats produced suggest it’s significantly less effective than the others? The problem is that it’s the one the old fat dribbler has been parroting about for months because it’s the ‘Oxford vaccine’. If it’s useless, then he’s going to have to bury the bad news in the time honoured way.
Hopefully the approved vaccine will make a difference to the 7% of the population it’s administered to, assuming Belgium continues to supply it. |  | | |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 21:03 - Dec 21 with 2996 views | Trequartista |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 20:55 - Dec 21 by stantheman |
Just seen that the average age of people dying through covid is 82 and there are 3.2 million over 80's in the UK. The maths of vaccinating everyone of those and all being safe by Easter is over optimistic at best. |
We are expected to be vaccinating 2 million by the end of January with the Pfizer vaccine that is hard to distribute, so providing the much easier to distribute Oxford vaccine is approved this month, i see no reason why we won't have done 3.2 million by the end of February. | |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 21:08 - Dec 21 with 2971 views | Trequartista |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 21:00 - Dec 21 by Churchman |
Isn’t the issue with the Oxford vaccine is that the testing was a mess and even with that mess, the stats produced suggest it’s significantly less effective than the others? The problem is that it’s the one the old fat dribbler has been parroting about for months because it’s the ‘Oxford vaccine’. If it’s useless, then he’s going to have to bury the bad news in the time honoured way.
Hopefully the approved vaccine will make a difference to the 7% of the population it’s administered to, assuming Belgium continues to supply it. |
see below with what happened with the half doses - it wasn't really a mess, more a discovery by accident the regulator was made fully aware of.
Even 65% is good. It sounds pretty crap doesn't it, but i think it means 65% chance of not catching covid, as opposed to 65% chance of not getting seriously ill with covid. The amount of people who got seriously ill with covid after taking the Oxford Vaccine was zilch. This is not so great for herd immunity, but great if you actually take the vaccine i would guess. [Post edited 21 Dec 2020 21:09]
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 21:13 - Dec 21 with 2937 views | Pinewoodblue |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 20:55 - Dec 21 by stantheman |
Just seen that the average age of people dying through covid is 82 and there are 3.2 million over 80's in the UK. The maths of vaccinating everyone of those and all being safe by Easter is over optimistic at best. |
Maths isn't one of your strengths is it? |  |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 21:25 - Dec 21 with 2902 views | m14_blue |
That’s leapt up pretty quickly from the 130,000 odd they announced last week.
Impressive stuff, long may it continue. |  | | |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 21:28 - Dec 21 with 2891 views | nodge_blue |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 21:00 - Dec 21 by Churchman |
Isn’t the issue with the Oxford vaccine is that the testing was a mess and even with that mess, the stats produced suggest it’s significantly less effective than the others? The problem is that it’s the one the old fat dribbler has been parroting about for months because it’s the ‘Oxford vaccine’. If it’s useless, then he’s going to have to bury the bad news in the time honoured way.
Hopefully the approved vaccine will make a difference to the 7% of the population it’s administered to, assuming Belgium continues to supply it. |
To be fair, it was less effective at stopping people getting it, but of those that did, none needed hospitalisation. So we could live with that. |  |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 21:35 - Dec 21 with 2873 views | Pinewoodblue |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 21:28 - Dec 21 by nodge_blue |
To be fair, it was less effective at stopping people getting it, but of those that did, none needed hospitalisation. So we could live with that. |
It is also easier to distribute, and a lot cheaper. | |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 22:11 - Dec 21 with 2813 views | stantheman |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 21:13 - Dec 21 by Pinewoodblue |
Maths isn't one of your strengths is it? |
I was referring that not only the over 80's need to be vaccinated. If there are 3.2 million over 80's there will be much larger numbers of over 65's etc. So no mate, my maths is fine thanks. [Post edited 21 Dec 2020 22:15]
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 22:17 - Dec 21 with 2782 views | Pinewoodblue |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 22:11 - Dec 21 by stantheman |
I was referring that not only the over 80's need to be vaccinated. If there are 3.2 million over 80's there will be much larger numbers of over 65's etc. So no mate, my maths is fine thanks. [Post edited 21 Dec 2020 22:15]
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You might wish to amend your original post ten. | |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 22:19 - Dec 21 with 2772 views | stantheman |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 22:17 - Dec 21 by Pinewoodblue |
You might wish to amend your original post ten. |
Yeah, fair point. I didn't explain myself very well. | | | |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 23:05 - Dec 21 with 2689 views | ElderGrizzly |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 20:55 - Dec 21 by stantheman |
Just seen that the average age of people dying through covid is 82 and there are 3.2 million over 80's in the UK. The maths of vaccinating everyone of those and all being safe by Easter is over optimistic at best. |
Their plan is to vaccinate 500,000 a day once the AstraZeneca vaccine is approved from January.
The vaccines happening right now is a pilot effectively of which they have fewer than 1 million doses.
For context, the vulnerable in the Governments priority list is 25 million. By Easter... |  | | |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 23:20 - Dec 21 with 2640 views | vapour_trail |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 23:05 - Dec 21 by ElderGrizzly |
Their plan is to vaccinate 500,000 a day once the AstraZeneca vaccine is approved from January.
The vaccines happening right now is a pilot effectively of which they have fewer than 1 million doses.
For context, the vulnerable in the Governments priority list is 25 million. By Easter... |
Half a mil a day is quite extraordinary. |  |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 23:22 - Dec 21 with 2629 views | Trequartista |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 21:25 - Dec 21 by m14_blue |
That’s leapt up pretty quickly from the 130,000 odd they announced last week.
Impressive stuff, long may it continue. |
So far so good, some hurdles to overcome though, let's hope that
1) The figures are correct
2) The expected doses arrive as promised
3) Capacity can maintain at least the same rate once people come back for second doses at the same time others are receiving their first one
4) The current mutation and any further mutations are still covered by the vaccines
5) The Oxford vaccine receives approval before the end of the year. | |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 23:26 - Dec 21 with 2608 views | ElderGrizzly |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 23:20 - Dec 21 by vapour_trail |
Half a mil a day is quite extraordinary. |
I’d suggest it is unachievable, but was one of Johnson’s boasts and they appear to be sticking to it for now | | | |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 23:52 - Dec 21 with 2574 views | Pinewoodblue |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 23:26 - Dec 21 by ElderGrizzly |
I’d suggest it is unachievable, but was one of Johnson’s boasts and they appear to be sticking to it for now |
Thought target was 1,000,000 a week but wasn’t clear if that was injections target bearing in mind two jabs needed. | |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 00:04 - Dec 22 with 2552 views | J2BLUE |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 23:26 - Dec 21 by ElderGrizzly |
I’d suggest it is unachievable, but was one of Johnson’s boasts and they appear to be sticking to it for now |
Not sure it's unachievable. By the sounds of it they are going to use many venues and according to Dr Campbell it's a very simple jab to give so they might be able to train people up quickly.
I don't have much faith in the Tories but I genuinely believe we will be pleasantly surprised.
Apparently the Oxford vaccine will be approved before the end of the year. I would imagine it will be rolled out early January and ramped up quickly. |  |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 07:37 - Dec 22 with 2405 views | GlasgowBlue |
Can’t remember the exact figures but I read that if we vaccinate just 15% of the population (the over 70’s) we cut 70% of the deaths. |  |
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| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 09:54 - Dec 22 with 2251 views | stantheman |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 07:37 - Dec 22 by GlasgowBlue |
Can’t remember the exact figures but I read that if we vaccinate just 15% of the population (the over 70’s) we cut 70% of the deaths. |
I wonder where that leaves me, being just under 70? Answers on a postcard. | | | |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 10:27 - Dec 22 with 2207 views | BlueBadger |
| 500k have had vaccine first shot on 00:04 - Dec 22 by J2BLUE |
Not sure it's unachievable. By the sounds of it they are going to use many venues and according to Dr Campbell it's a very simple jab to give so they might be able to train people up quickly.
I don't have much faith in the Tories but I genuinely believe we will be pleasantly surprised.
Apparently the Oxford vaccine will be approved before the end of the year. I would imagine it will be rolled out early January and ramped up quickly. |
You'd need a lot of people to be released from their regular healthcare jobs, trained up properly, very quickly and a 100% reliable transport and supply chain from the continent in order to stand a chance.
Good job we've got nothing going on that'll keep healthcare staff occupied or problems at the ports at the moment. |  |
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