| Get ready for an October national lockdown 11:47 - Sep 7 with 5718 views | homer_123 |
The Gov have stated there are no plans for a lockdown in October.
* - I think we are all astutely aware that this was going to be extremely likely....but hey |  |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:09 - Sep 7 with 1741 views | Freddies_Ears |
To add to the OP, the govt minister actually said "I haven't seen any plans..." , which is quite different from the inference that there is no plan.
It would be useful to have infection, hospitalization and death stats by locality, age and, ideally, ethnicity. I suspect that double-vaxxed people under 60 (70?) in areas where overall vax rates are high are now pretty safe... |  | | |
| I know about 8 or 9 people that..... on 13:11 - Sep 7 with 1740 views | Guthrum |
| I know about 8 or 9 people that..... on 12:34 - Sep 7 by Bloots |
...have tested positive in the last couple of months.
Various ages from 14 to 55.
Symptoms have ranged from none to "proper flu", none came near to hospitalisation.
Obviously the effects differ hugely, and I lost a close mate during the second wave, dependant on the individual but that's the same for most illnesses.
Vaccinations have obviously made a huge difference, but also the treatment is getting better than it was. |
That is an important point. We know so much more about how to effectively treat (and save the lives of) Covid patients than we did in the early stages of the pandemic. |  |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:12 - Sep 7 with 1734 views | Digger77 |
I guess they will only lock down the vulnerable, as we have the 'vaccines' now. They said this was the only way out so,..... | | | |
| On the second point..... on 13:15 - Sep 7 with 1721 views | Lightworker |
| On the second point..... on 12:10 - Sep 7 by Bloots |
....the problem is that there is zero context to the reporting, or at least in the way that the media report it.
It's too black and white.
If they are going to report the number of infections, then they need to report it in much more depth, which they can't be bothered to.
They don't report the positivity rate, they don't report the ages, they don't report if they are vaccinated, they barely report the number of tests, they don't say if they are LFT or PCR, etc, etc.
Hospitalisations is more relevant, ITU occupancy even more so.
Essentially they need to report three things:
Percentage of beds occupied by covid patients and percentage unoccupied
Percentage of ITU beds occupied by covid patients and percentage unoccupied.
Deaths due to covid within any timescale.
All of the above by nation and region. |
They also don't report the percentage of cases that actually have symptoms and those that are just a positive PCR or LF test without symptoms.
Remember the good old days when to be classed as a clinical case for a disease you actually had to have some symptoms of that disease?.........TWTD |  | | |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:21 - Sep 7 with 1692 views | JammyDodgerrr |
It would be largely pointless, can't see compliance anywhere near what would be required. |  |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:21 - Sep 7 with 1700 views | factual_blue |
Do you mean we are aware there is likely to be an October Lockdown?
Or do you mean were are acutely aware that there are no plans?
(the answer is of course 'yes')
What does this mean for my chances of getting to the already twice-postponed Wishbone Ash concert in November at The Apex? |  |
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| On the second point..... on 13:27 - Sep 7 with 1681 views | Guthrum |
| On the second point..... on 13:15 - Sep 7 by Lightworker |
They also don't report the percentage of cases that actually have symptoms and those that are just a positive PCR or LF test without symptoms.
Remember the good old days when to be classed as a clinical case for a disease you actually had to have some symptoms of that disease?.........TWTD |
That's the distinction between a clinical case and a reservoir for virus propagation. Symptoms or not, you are the latter if you have Covid. | |
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| On the second point..... on 13:40 - Sep 7 with 1655 views | Lightworker |
| On the second point..... on 13:27 - Sep 7 by Guthrum |
That's the distinction between a clinical case and a reservoir for virus propagation. Symptoms or not, you are the latter if you have Covid. |
Hmm...not technically true. Covid-19 is the disease caused by the Sars-Cov2 virus. To have a disease, you generally have to have symptoms.
If you test positive for Sars-Cov2 but don't have any symptoms ( and don't go on to develop any) then you don't have Covid-19, you are just positive for presence of the Sars-Cov2 virus.
This could be a very small amount of virus or even old dead viral fragments and does not necessarily mean you are infectious.
This is quite an important distinction that hardly anybody is aware of and is never reported on. [Post edited 7 Sep 2021 13:51]
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:44 - Sep 7 with 1651 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:21 - Sep 7 by factual_blue |
Do you mean we are aware there is likely to be an October Lockdown?
Or do you mean were are acutely aware that there are no plans?
(the answer is of course 'yes')
What does this mean for my chances of getting to the already twice-postponed Wishbone Ash concert in November at The Apex? |
Don't worry. Covid won't get you. This will...
Just had a warning on our FCDO briefing that this is being watched closely. Kerala has basically shut down.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/7/india-kerala-nipah-virus-alert-covid |  | | |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:45 - Sep 7 with 1631 views | factual_blue |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:05 - Sep 7 by homer_123 |
A flippant pithy comment if I'm honest J2.
Though if anyone could give it some serious thought..... :) |
You and J2 frequently talk pith. | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:48 - Sep 7 with 1617 views | Lightworker |
Oh great, well i'm sure we can trust our Government to ensure it doesn't reach these shores......  | | | |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:50 - Sep 7 with 1607 views | factual_blue |
Will you sort out diplomatic passage for Mrs Facters and myself for our twice-postponed trip to Sorrento, now scheduled for next June?
TIA | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:57 - Sep 7 with 1577 views | wkj |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:50 - Sep 7 by J2BLUE |
Are we going to lock down every winter in future?
I would like to see them stop reporting the new covid cases and just report hospitalisations and deaths. |
I agree in principle, but when you are selective with data, it can lead down some very dark paths |  |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 14:01 - Sep 7 with 1570 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:50 - Sep 7 by factual_blue |
Will you sort out diplomatic passage for Mrs Facters and myself for our twice-postponed trip to Sorrento, now scheduled for next June?
TIA |
I can do one way? :) | | | |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 14:05 - Sep 7 with 1562 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 12:40 - Sep 7 by giant_stow |
I read financial journalist andrew lilico explaining how a new exponential phase of the pandemic was now impossible. Think this tweet kind of covers some of that ground
Seemed a bit weird for a non modeler to be so certain. |
Lilico is an idiot, I followed him on Twitter for the lols - foolishly confronted him once very politely with some rock-solid evidence that totally contradicted what he was saying - he blocked me. |  |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 14:08 - Sep 7 with 1554 views | wkj |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 14:05 - Sep 7 by Ewan_Oozami |
Lilico is an idiot, I followed him on Twitter for the lols - foolishly confronted him once very politely with some rock-solid evidence that totally contradicted what he was saying - he blocked me. |
Should have just called him a cock. | |
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| On the second point..... on 14:16 - Sep 7 with 1543 views | Guthrum |
| On the second point..... on 13:40 - Sep 7 by Lightworker |
Hmm...not technically true. Covid-19 is the disease caused by the Sars-Cov2 virus. To have a disease, you generally have to have symptoms.
If you test positive for Sars-Cov2 but don't have any symptoms ( and don't go on to develop any) then you don't have Covid-19, you are just positive for presence of the Sars-Cov2 virus.
This could be a very small amount of virus or even old dead viral fragments and does not necessarily mean you are infectious.
This is quite an important distinction that hardly anybody is aware of and is never reported on. [Post edited 7 Sep 2021 13:51]
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But the virus is still present, in sufficient quantity to be detected by testing. Which means you could well be infectious. That is the important issue - you could cause somebody else to pick up the virus and thus potentially develop the disease.
There is simply no basis for assuming that asymptomatic people are not infectious. Viral shedding may be a bit lower, but still happens. | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 14:23 - Sep 7 with 1517 views | factual_blue |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 14:01 - Sep 7 by ElderGrizzly |
I can do one way? :) |
Don't tempt us....
Or is there a vacancy for a consul on the nearby Phlegraean Islands? | |
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| On the second point..... on 15:34 - Sep 7 with 1473 views | Lightworker |
| On the second point..... on 14:16 - Sep 7 by Guthrum |
But the virus is still present, in sufficient quantity to be detected by testing. Which means you could well be infectious. That is the important issue - you could cause somebody else to pick up the virus and thus potentially develop the disease.
There is simply no basis for assuming that asymptomatic people are not infectious. Viral shedding may be a bit lower, but still happens. |
Well that rather depends on the amplification cycles that are adopted at the time of testing.
The inventor of the PCR test is on record as saying that if you apply the cycles at a high enough level you will find almost anything that you are looking for.
It is possible that you could still be infectious, but it is also possible that you are not. It is possible the test is picking up dead viral fragment and that you are not infectious at all. There is medical literature which demonstrates this.
This is the point I am making, that we should really be distinguishing between those genuine infectious cases with symptoms and those that are not, but we don't do this, they all get lumped together and therefore the figures can never be truly meaningful, or fully trusted.
In the history of infectious disease I don't believe we have ever previously considered people that have zero symptoms of disease to be infectious to others......the only exception to this I can think of is HIV/AIDS. | | | |
| On the second point..... on 16:09 - Sep 7 with 1421 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| On the second point..... on 15:34 - Sep 7 by Lightworker |
Well that rather depends on the amplification cycles that are adopted at the time of testing.
The inventor of the PCR test is on record as saying that if you apply the cycles at a high enough level you will find almost anything that you are looking for.
It is possible that you could still be infectious, but it is also possible that you are not. It is possible the test is picking up dead viral fragment and that you are not infectious at all. There is medical literature which demonstrates this.
This is the point I am making, that we should really be distinguishing between those genuine infectious cases with symptoms and those that are not, but we don't do this, they all get lumped together and therefore the figures can never be truly meaningful, or fully trusted.
In the history of infectious disease I don't believe we have ever previously considered people that have zero symptoms of disease to be infectious to others......the only exception to this I can think of is HIV/AIDS. |
Typhoid and cholera spring to mind! :-) | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 16:15 - Sep 7 with 1406 views | homer_123 |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:45 - Sep 7 by factual_blue |
You and J2 frequently talk pith. |
pot, kettle and all that Facters!  | |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 16:41 - Sep 7 with 1379 views | Ryorry |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 11:50 - Sep 7 by J2BLUE |
Are we going to lock down every winter in future?
I would like to see them stop reporting the new covid cases and just report hospitalisations and deaths. |
Completely disagree. I want to know exactly what those figures are so that I can make informed choices for myself (immunocompromised person with chronic lung conditions) which could save my life . |  |
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| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 16:54 - Sep 7 with 1358 views | Ryorry |
| Get ready for an October national lockdown on 13:09 - Sep 7 by Freddies_Ears |
To add to the OP, the govt minister actually said "I haven't seen any plans..." , which is quite different from the inference that there is no plan.
It would be useful to have infection, hospitalization and death stats by locality, age and, ideally, ethnicity. I suspect that double-vaxxed people under 60 (70?) in areas where overall vax rates are high are now pretty safe... |
3 people in our village of about 100 have been hospitalised in the past month, all 55-70 - and those are just the ones I know about. My lovely, lovely neighbour & friend died last week, everyone's devastated. His wife, also a friend, has survived, both were double vacc'd, but in past 2 years he'd successfully come through treatment for 2 different cancers.
Not sure whether the other guy had been vacc'd.
Edit: Just to add that whilst I wish your suspicions were correct, you've forgotten about all those people who are unlikely to be safe despite being double-vacc'd, as they're on immunosuppressant meds etc., therefore likely to have sub-optimal responses to the vaccs. [Post edited 7 Sep 2021 17:02]
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| On the second point..... on 17:31 - Sep 7 with 1314 views | DinDjarin |
| On the second point..... on 12:10 - Sep 7 by Bloots |
....the problem is that there is zero context to the reporting, or at least in the way that the media report it.
It's too black and white.
If they are going to report the number of infections, then they need to report it in much more depth, which they can't be bothered to.
They don't report the positivity rate, they don't report the ages, they don't report if they are vaccinated, they barely report the number of tests, they don't say if they are LFT or PCR, etc, etc.
Hospitalisations is more relevant, ITU occupancy even more so.
Essentially they need to report three things:
Percentage of beds occupied by covid patients and percentage unoccupied
Percentage of ITU beds occupied by covid patients and percentage unoccupied.
Deaths due to covid within any timescale.
All of the above by nation and region. |
If the majority of deaths were not vaccinated I am sure they would be reporting that all over the place. |  | | |
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