| Herd immunity from covid 22:03 - Oct 28 with 9099 views | StokieBlue |
A number scientists had been floating the idea that herd immunity from covid might be impossible due to the fact that immunised people still carry a high enough viral load to infect other people.
It seems this has been tentatively confirmed by a new study:
Lancet Paper:
https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/s147330992
Guardian Article:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/28/covid-vaccinated-likely-unjabbed-i
Essentially it would render the government strategy of herd immunity (which they have been attempting regardless of what they say) impossible because the unvaccinated cannot rely on the immunity of the vaccinated to prevent them getting infected as they can with other diseases.
The study also highlighted a few worrying things for the vaccinated:
“What we found, surprisingly, was that already by three months after receipt of the second vaccine dose, the risk of acquiring infection was higher compared to being more recently vaccinated,”
This was also interesting given a discussion on here over the last few days around mask wearing and other respiratory viruses:
"Kao suggested the findings also added weight to calls for the introduction of further measures in the UK to tackle the spread of Covid, adding the move could also mitigate the risks posed by other respiratory infections including flu."
Those eligible for boosters should get them straight away.
SB |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 09:49 - Oct 29 with 977 views | gtsb1966 |
| Herd immunity from covid on 08:48 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
To be honest I'm pretty sick of you as well, you're always pushing the "but both sides" argument and are quick to excuse dangerous or obnoxious behaviour. Posters like yourself and digger seem to have become emboldened and it's definitely time to push back and I'm going to whether it's in the style of my former posting or not.
An opinion isn't valid when it goes against all the evidence. I've demonstrably proven he is wrong with regards to masks and natural immunity yet he keeps posting things to downplay covid due to his own warped agenda. He's wrong here to be so certain in his assertion and to tell people to relax essentially.
That behaviour could be dangerous if individuals actually think he knows what he's on about and follow his musings.
If you don't like what I'm posting I suggest you counter it with evidence, studies and coherent discussion rather than citing the opinions are equivalent rubbish.
I think it's fairly shameful that you seek to defend him and assume it's only because you don't want your own opinions challenged. As I said in s previous thread, look at your own posting quality and content before taking aim at others.
SB |
"That behaviour could be dangerous if individuals actually think he knows what he's on about and follow his musings"
Do you honestly think people are going to read this forum and act on the words of people's posts. Do you really think that?
People won't wear masks anymore unless we go back to the rules of a few months ago and are told to do so by the government. Each day that passes sees less and less people wearing masks , social distancing etc. I can't see it going back to how we were 18 months ago that's for sure. Like it or not more and more people are prepared to just live with it . You've only got to step outside your front door to see that. |  | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:00 - Oct 29 with 936 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 09:49 - Oct 29 by gtsb1966 |
"That behaviour could be dangerous if individuals actually think he knows what he's on about and follow his musings"
Do you honestly think people are going to read this forum and act on the words of people's posts. Do you really think that?
People won't wear masks anymore unless we go back to the rules of a few months ago and are told to do so by the government. Each day that passes sees less and less people wearing masks , social distancing etc. I can't see it going back to how we were 18 months ago that's for sure. Like it or not more and more people are prepared to just live with it . You've only got to step outside your front door to see that. |
If you believe no one takes any notice of what you say, why do you bother posting? |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 10:01 - Oct 29 with 934 views | StokieBlue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 09:49 - Oct 29 by gtsb1966 |
"That behaviour could be dangerous if individuals actually think he knows what he's on about and follow his musings"
Do you honestly think people are going to read this forum and act on the words of people's posts. Do you really think that?
People won't wear masks anymore unless we go back to the rules of a few months ago and are told to do so by the government. Each day that passes sees less and less people wearing masks , social distancing etc. I can't see it going back to how we were 18 months ago that's for sure. Like it or not more and more people are prepared to just live with it . You've only got to step outside your front door to see that. |
If even one person reads it and thinks - "I'll just get covid and get the natural immunity rather than the virus" then it's dangerous in my opinion. You seem to put little value on lives given you just want to "live with it" with annualised covid deaths of 60000+ per year. For some context, that is 10% of all deaths in the UK each year.
If I said 60000 people were going to be trampled to death by cows each year and it would make up 10% of our total deaths I'm pretty sure you wouldn't say we should just "live with it" when things can be done to mitigate it which aren't particular hardships.
As for the rest of your post, none of that has any relevance to what we are discussing which was the science and the fallacious nature of his posts.
Your posts don't tackle the science either. It's all about "feelings" and "live with it" and to be honest that's fine as it's not spreading a specific falsehood. Your posts defending someone spreading falsehoods and those that go "but both sides" are not fine and you should seriously reflect on why you feel the need to post in that way.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 10:08 - Oct 29 with 906 views | gtsb1966 |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:00 - Oct 29 by Nthsuffolkblue |
If you believe no one takes any notice of what you say, why do you bother posting? |
I said acting on words. There's a difference between reading something and acting upon it. The posters words would not make someone who is wearing a mask, social distancing etc suddenly stop. | | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:16 - Oct 29 with 880 views | footers |
| Herd immunity from covid on 09:49 - Oct 29 by gtsb1966 |
"That behaviour could be dangerous if individuals actually think he knows what he's on about and follow his musings"
Do you honestly think people are going to read this forum and act on the words of people's posts. Do you really think that?
People won't wear masks anymore unless we go back to the rules of a few months ago and are told to do so by the government. Each day that passes sees less and less people wearing masks , social distancing etc. I can't see it going back to how we were 18 months ago that's for sure. Like it or not more and more people are prepared to just live with it . You've only got to step outside your front door to see that. |
I'll continue to wear my mask even if not told to by someone else because it's common sense. If you entrust you and your family's wellbeing to a clown like Johnson, then you only have yourself to blame.
'Other people aren't doing it, so I won't either' is a pretty stupid argument, even for you. |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 10:16 - Oct 29 with 888 views | Durovigutum |
I'm in Barcelona at the moment. Rates are about 30,000 fewer cases a day compared to the UK at the moment. Masks are mandatory indoors and on public transport if you are over 6 years old - everyone is wearing them and at least 95% of people are wearing them properly. The outdoor café culture and warmer weather helps, but the basics are basic and we really ought to do them better in the UK. |  | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:25 - Oct 29 with 847 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:08 - Oct 29 by gtsb1966 |
I said acting on words. There's a difference between reading something and acting upon it. The posters words would not make someone who is wearing a mask, social distancing etc suddenly stop. |
So you post because you like arguing?
If you don't believe anyone's actions are impacted by what they believe and that what you say/post impacts on what they believe, why do you bother posting?
In my mind, the point of debate is to shape my own and influence others' opinions. However, you may be right and, at times with posters like you and Diggers it does seem utterly pointless. | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 10:31 - Oct 29 with 829 views | gtsb1966 |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:16 - Oct 29 by footers |
I'll continue to wear my mask even if not told to by someone else because it's common sense. If you entrust you and your family's wellbeing to a clown like Johnson, then you only have yourself to blame.
'Other people aren't doing it, so I won't either' is a pretty stupid argument, even for you. |
I wonder how many people on this forum, including people who have made comments on this subject, go to the games with 20, 000 other people and don't wear a mask during the game and I wonder how many of those are quick to put down anyone who doesn't wear a mask during their day to day lives. That would be hypocritical wouldn't it. Have a good day all. | | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:39 - Oct 29 with 805 views | footers |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:31 - Oct 29 by gtsb1966 |
I wonder how many people on this forum, including people who have made comments on this subject, go to the games with 20, 000 other people and don't wear a mask during the game and I wonder how many of those are quick to put down anyone who doesn't wear a mask during their day to day lives. That would be hypocritical wouldn't it. Have a good day all. |
Not me :)
Anyway, it's still stupid to argue that because other people aren't that you shouldn't either.
'Hey, there's this deadly airborne virus going around and a good way prevent getting it is to wear a mask when indoors!'
'Oh yeah? Well, my mate Dave ain't doing that so I reckon I won't either.'
That's literally all you've got by way of argument.
Have a blessed day, and try not to catch covid! | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 10:39 - Oct 29 with 809 views | longtimefan |
"Those eligible for boosters should get them straight away."
Got my invite yesterday and now booked for 2 weeks time, which will be 2 days past the 6 month anniversary of my 2nd jab. |  | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:40 - Oct 29 with 813 views | Trequartista |
| Herd immunity from covid on 09:15 - Oct 29 by ElderGrizzly |
Do you know why cases are down in the last week?
We have tested 120,000 fewer people every day for the last 7 days. 730,000 a day, down from 850,000 a day.
Combined with the biggest spreader of Covid (Schools) being on half-term, it's no surprise we've seen a reduction.
Any reduction is good of course, but lets not celebrate quite yet. |
There were 916,286 tests done in the latest figures with 39,842 cases (down from 52k on the same day last week). They are definitely going down even pro rata with tests conducted.
When cases are going up you use the headline figure where the uk is one of the highest in Europe and when they come down you suddenly pro rata the figure with tests conducted! |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 10:47 - Oct 29 with 798 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:16 - Oct 29 by Durovigutum |
I'm in Barcelona at the moment. Rates are about 30,000 fewer cases a day compared to the UK at the moment. Masks are mandatory indoors and on public transport if you are over 6 years old - everyone is wearing them and at least 95% of people are wearing them properly. The outdoor café culture and warmer weather helps, but the basics are basic and we really ought to do them better in the UK. |
And that's the most frustrating thing.
As with the first wave, we can literally look across Europe and see what we could do to help, but we ignore it because we apparently know better. |  | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:48 - Oct 29 with 794 views | Trequartista |
| Herd immunity from covid on 00:38 - Oct 29 by Digger77 |
Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert and Sir John Bell actually.
We don't need vaccines for common cold, do we? I'm not sure what your problem is. Cases are down again, promising news on treatments, the virus will get weaker by spring ... Things are looking up! |
Prof Gilbert said the virus will weaken, and that it may weaken by Spring. So it’s wrong to say she said it will weaken by Spring. Your incorrect assertion is not exactly David Icke stuff though. | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 10:51 - Oct 29 with 781 views | StokieBlue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:40 - Oct 29 by Trequartista |
There were 916,286 tests done in the latest figures with 39,842 cases (down from 52k on the same day last week). They are definitely going down even pro rata with tests conducted.
When cases are going up you use the headline figure where the uk is one of the highest in Europe and when they come down you suddenly pro rata the figure with tests conducted! |
There is a context here though that schools have been out this week which you need to factor in when citing the pro-rata rate going down as we now know they are definitely a high vector of transmission. In some ways the fact the number is still quite high is a worry.
After half-term restrictions with regards to masks are being implemented in most high schools I believe.
Deaths are increasing although slowly which is good news.
Furthermore, the study I cited in this thread is making a tentative conclusion that immunity actually starts waning after 3 months so if there is even a small possibility that this is correct we need to be minimising the cases now which means some restrictions unfortunately.
Do you agree that would be the sensible course of action? I am more than 3 months since my second vaccination and thus aren't especially keen be going about my daily life in a sea of covid.
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 10:56]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| (No subject) (n/t) on 10:53 - Oct 29 with 766 views | StokieBlue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:48 - Oct 29 by Trequartista |
Prof Gilbert said the virus will weaken, and that it may weaken by Spring. So it’s wrong to say she said it will weaken by Spring. Your incorrect assertion is not exactly David Icke stuff though. |
As far as I can tell, only two scientists have taken this position. We simply don't know and to cite a rule that all viruses weaken is simple untrue - there are many which haven't weakened at all.
It's certainly possible but it's also possible that given the high R it will mutate into something worse. We need to be honest about the situation here.
It's hardly a one-off from him, it's a pattern of behaviour around everything to do with covid. He takes the smallest statement or data from a poor source around covid which supports his position and states it as fact.
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 10:54]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 10:54 - Oct 29 with 768 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:40 - Oct 29 by Trequartista |
There were 916,286 tests done in the latest figures with 39,842 cases (down from 52k on the same day last week). They are definitely going down even pro rata with tests conducted.
When cases are going up you use the headline figure where the uk is one of the highest in Europe and when they come down you suddenly pro rata the figure with tests conducted! |
I really don't. I've been quite consistent since re-opening in July that we should be looking at hospitalisations and deaths, not cases.
The 730k figure is the average in England over the last 7 days. | | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:55 - Oct 29 with 762 views | Herbivore |
| Herd immunity from covid on 08:32 - Oct 29 by gtsb1966 |
"Angry at an awful poster". Why, because they have a different opinion to you. You seem to think you are the forum oracle . If you don't agree with someone then fine but that doesn't make them an awful poster as you put it. |
Surprised to see you siding with said awful poster over someone trying to stop the deliberate spread of misinformation. How out of character. |  |
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| The majority of northern and..... on 11:00 - Oct 29 with 735 views | Bloots |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:47 - Oct 29 by ElderGrizzly |
And that's the most frustrating thing.
As with the first wave, we can literally look across Europe and see what we could do to help, but we ignore it because we apparently know better. |
...eastern Europe have a higher positivity rate than we do.
So we can't really look across Europe and see better results.
It's only really the countries on "The Med" that have a lower positivity rate than us. |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 11:00 - Oct 29 with 734 views | Herbivore |
| Herd immunity from covid on 09:42 - Oct 29 by BanksterDebtSlave |
I wasn't defending him in this instance just making a wider point.
Remember when..'get vaccinated, if not for yourself then for others'... was the mantra? Presented by many in absolute terms as a 'truth.' |
The evidence shows that vaccinations reduce transmission so I'm not sure what your point is here? | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 11:01 - Oct 29 with 724 views | Herbivore |
| Herd immunity from covid on 09:49 - Oct 29 by gtsb1966 |
"That behaviour could be dangerous if individuals actually think he knows what he's on about and follow his musings"
Do you honestly think people are going to read this forum and act on the words of people's posts. Do you really think that?
People won't wear masks anymore unless we go back to the rules of a few months ago and are told to do so by the government. Each day that passes sees less and less people wearing masks , social distancing etc. I can't see it going back to how we were 18 months ago that's for sure. Like it or not more and more people are prepared to just live with it . You've only got to step outside your front door to see that. |
You seem to think that lots of people behaving in a certain way is a good argument in favour of behaving that way. It isn't. | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 11:09 - Oct 29 with 684 views | Trequartista |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:51 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
There is a context here though that schools have been out this week which you need to factor in when citing the pro-rata rate going down as we now know they are definitely a high vector of transmission. In some ways the fact the number is still quite high is a worry.
After half-term restrictions with regards to masks are being implemented in most high schools I believe.
Deaths are increasing although slowly which is good news.
Furthermore, the study I cited in this thread is making a tentative conclusion that immunity actually starts waning after 3 months so if there is even a small possibility that this is correct we need to be minimising the cases now which means some restrictions unfortunately.
Do you agree that would be the sensible course of action? I am more than 3 months since my second vaccination and thus aren't especially keen be going about my daily life in a sea of covid.
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 10:56]
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I would imagine schools half term is providing a fire break yes, but that still means they are going down pro rata to tests or not. (There seems to be a pattern of big drops and slow climbs since restrictions were lifted)
I think ramping up the booster jabs is the most important thing in light of waning immunity. I think your jabs still give you high protection against severe Covid and getting a mild dose will act as a booster (not that that is a chance anyone should take). I’m not convinced about masks, i prefer distancing. My position is I hate them and make everything look distopian but I am still wearing one in all public indoor spaces because I *might* avoid killing someone. | |
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| The majority of northern and..... on 11:09 - Oct 29 with 690 views | Pinewoodblue |
| The majority of northern and..... on 11:00 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
...eastern Europe have a higher positivity rate than we do.
So we can't really look across Europe and see better results.
It's only really the countries on "The Med" that have a lower positivity rate than us. |
The reason we have a lower positivity rate than much of Europe is not because we have fewer cases but because we test more.
It is the changes in a Countries positivity rate that matter and ours isn’t coming down. It would if we all wore masks when in crowded indoor areas.
What amazes me is the number of people I know who regard Boris Johnson as untrustworthy but say they will start wearing masks again if it was mandated by government. [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 11:11]
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| Herd immunity from covid on 11:12 - Oct 29 with 661 views | Trequartista |
| Herd immunity from covid on 10:54 - Oct 29 by ElderGrizzly |
I really don't. I've been quite consistent since re-opening in July that we should be looking at hospitalisations and deaths, not cases.
The 730k figure is the average in England over the last 7 days. |
Last 7 days
916216
802547
820482
785553
706080
912061
1011431
I’m struggling to see how you get an average of 730k from that | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 11:14 - Oct 29 with 647 views | Digger77 |
| Herd immunity from covid on 00:45 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
My problem is you. You post things as fact which simply aren't facts. You've said "will" get weaker again.
I know the two scientists involved as I said in my original post and they both said "could". You've attributed that as a definite when it's not. They are also basically the only scientists saying it widely so you're cherry picking again to suit your opinion like you did with masks and natural immunity.
With regards to cases, you can't define a trend over a few days during the school holidays.
As I said, in my opinion, your posting on this issue is a disgrace.
SB |
As I asked before, can you point me to where I linked anything about masks please?
With all due respect, I take what the actual experts say over your opinion...
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-will-end-up-resembling-common-cold-by-spring-ne | | | |
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