| Herd immunity from covid 22:03 - Oct 28 with 10491 views | StokieBlue |
A number scientists had been floating the idea that herd immunity from covid might be impossible due to the fact that immunised people still carry a high enough viral load to infect other people.
It seems this has been tentatively confirmed by a new study:
Lancet Paper:
https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/s147330992
Guardian Article:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/28/covid-vaccinated-likely-unjabbed-i
Essentially it would render the government strategy of herd immunity (which they have been attempting regardless of what they say) impossible because the unvaccinated cannot rely on the immunity of the vaccinated to prevent them getting infected as they can with other diseases.
The study also highlighted a few worrying things for the vaccinated:
“What we found, surprisingly, was that already by three months after receipt of the second vaccine dose, the risk of acquiring infection was higher compared to being more recently vaccinated,”
This was also interesting given a discussion on here over the last few days around mask wearing and other respiratory viruses:
"Kao suggested the findings also added weight to calls for the introduction of further measures in the UK to tackle the spread of Covid, adding the move could also mitigate the risks posed by other respiratory infections including flu."
Those eligible for boosters should get them straight away.
SB |  | | |  |
| The positivity rate isn't.... on 11:17 - Oct 29 with 1630 views | Bloots |
| The majority of northern and..... on 11:09 - Oct 29 by Pinewoodblue |
The reason we have a lower positivity rate than much of Europe is not because we have fewer cases but because we test more.
It is the changes in a Countries positivity rate that matter and ours isn’t coming down. It would if we all wore masks when in crowded indoor areas.
What amazes me is the number of people I know who regard Boris Johnson as untrustworthy but say they will start wearing masks again if it was mandated by government. [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 11:11]
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...coming down anywhere in Europe.
Our rate is actually quite stable when compared to others. |  |
| "The sooner he comes back the better, this place has been a disaster without him" - TWTD User (July 2025) |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 11:18 - Oct 29 with 1630 views | StokieBlue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 11:09 - Oct 29 by Trequartista |
I would imagine schools half term is providing a fire break yes, but that still means they are going down pro rata to tests or not. (There seems to be a pattern of big drops and slow climbs since restrictions were lifted)
I think ramping up the booster jabs is the most important thing in light of waning immunity. I think your jabs still give you high protection against severe Covid and getting a mild dose will act as a booster (not that that is a chance anyone should take). I’m not convinced about masks, i prefer distancing. My position is I hate them and make everything look distopian but I am still wearing one in all public indoor spaces because I *might* avoid killing someone. |
It might be worth reading the paper from the lancet I linked on the opening page. In there it looks like immunity could be waning after 3 months and if that is true then the protection from more severe disease could wane as well.
Once again, it's something that requires more study and research but it is something we need to keep in mind. Keeping the cases down reduces the risks either way.
Why aren't you convinced about masks? The data is pretty conclusive now that they help prevent transmission - I linked another study on that last week and am happy to again if you are interested in reading it.
Social distancing is excellent but doing it in combination with mask wearing is better (which you say you are doing anyway). I don't really care how they look, to me, people dying of a virus when the spread can be prevented is far more dystopian than the sight of people wearing masks.
SB | | | |
| (No subject) (n/t) on 11:20 - Oct 29 with 1623 views | Trequartista |
| (No subject) (n/t) on 10:53 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
As far as I can tell, only two scientists have taken this position. We simply don't know and to cite a rule that all viruses weaken is simple untrue - there are many which haven't weakened at all.
It's certainly possible but it's also possible that given the high R it will mutate into something worse. We need to be honest about the situation here.
It's hardly a one-off from him, it's a pattern of behaviour around everything to do with covid. He takes the smallest statement or data from a poor source around covid which supports his position and states it as fact.
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 10:54]
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I agree we don’t know, and I am consistent in scorning any future predictions for example those that predict 100k cases a day of Covid in December or those that predict 5k cases a day.
You only have to look at the last 2 major mutations where the transmissibility increased but the viral load didn’t decrease.
I prefer to try and take any post on its own merits whether it be someone I have frequently opposed or agreed with before. It’s not easy and I dare say I’ve broken that rule, i just think it avoids the polarisation we get nowadays to try and play the ball and not the man |  |
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| The Govt website shows.... on 11:20 - Oct 29 with 1621 views | Bloots |
| Herd immunity from covid on 11:12 - Oct 29 by Trequartista |
Last 7 days
916216
802547
820482
785553
706080
912061
1011431
I’m struggling to see how you get an average of 730k from that |
....an average of 850,000. | |
| "The sooner he comes back the better, this place has been a disaster without him" - TWTD User (July 2025) |
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| The positivity rate isn't.... on 11:26 - Oct 29 with 1591 views | Pinewoodblue |
| The positivity rate isn't.... on 11:17 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
...coming down anywhere in Europe.
Our rate is actually quite stable when compared to others. |
But at an unnecessarily high level. |  |
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| The positivity rate isn't.... on 11:27 - Oct 29 with 1582 views | hype313 |
| The positivity rate isn't.... on 11:17 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
...coming down anywhere in Europe.
Our rate is actually quite stable when compared to others. |
Indeed, I've just been on a work call with European colleagues, my Dutch colleague mentioned that they are making an announcement on Tuesday due to rates souring and my German colleague said that bizarrly, in North Rhine-Westphalia even though cases are growing hugely, the local government have announced the removal of masks indoors and schools, and they are all now scratching their heads. |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 11:27 - Oct 29 with 1575 views | StokieBlue |
It's all in the thread previously, your evidence to support your assertion that masks don't work was an awful self-published blog and a Republican newspaper from the US.
Here are two studies and an article article showing they do work (I already pointed you to this in another thread). Many other studies are also available.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/masks-were-working-all-along/6
https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symp
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118
What you actually mean is that you'll take what 2 experts who agree with your predetermined position say and even then you get it wrong. If you read the article they both clearly say "could" which is what I said in my post earlier. They also say "tend to get weaker", once again hedging their bets because not all viruses get weaker. Nowhere do they say that vaccines won't be required which you put in your post.
I'm not going to change my opinion on your posting because you've presented me no evidence which means I should. It's still a disgrace. You totally ignored the studies I cited when you made your false assertion that natural immunity was better than vaccines. You also ignored that it was far more risky given one could get severe covid or long covid via a natural immunity route and still get waning immunity after that.
SB | | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 11:33 - Oct 29 with 1557 views | Trequartista |
| Herd immunity from covid on 11:18 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
It might be worth reading the paper from the lancet I linked on the opening page. In there it looks like immunity could be waning after 3 months and if that is true then the protection from more severe disease could wane as well.
Once again, it's something that requires more study and research but it is something we need to keep in mind. Keeping the cases down reduces the risks either way.
Why aren't you convinced about masks? The data is pretty conclusive now that they help prevent transmission - I linked another study on that last week and am happy to again if you are interested in reading it.
Social distancing is excellent but doing it in combination with mask wearing is better (which you say you are doing anyway). I don't really care how they look, to me, people dying of a virus when the spread can be prevented is far more dystopian than the sight of people wearing masks.
SB |
Happy to take your word on the study. Was it the danmask study that came to the conclusion there was no significant difference? Can a study determine if people are not distancing because they think a mask offers full protection? Do loose bits of cloth around the face count as a mask as much as a surgical one?
It’s pretty much a moot point to me anyway as i’m still using one. | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 11:43 - Oct 29 with 1503 views | Reusers_Tash |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:26 - Oct 28 by nodge_blue |
Yes that seems to be the case. Especially with the new variants.
We will have it with us for the foreseeable. 20k every day suggested by someone.
But it may become less bad with more already had it or vaccinated. Even though we get it, the residual affects of the vaccine help against severe illness they think. |
Natural immunity is much more effective and durable so will play an ever increasing role in herd immunity. |  | | |
| The Dutch positivity rate went.... on 11:44 - Oct 29 with 1503 views | Bloots |
| The positivity rate isn't.... on 11:27 - Oct 29 by hype313 |
Indeed, I've just been on a work call with European colleagues, my Dutch colleague mentioned that they are making an announcement on Tuesday due to rates souring and my German colleague said that bizarrly, in North Rhine-Westphalia even though cases are growing hugely, the local government have announced the removal of masks indoors and schools, and they are all now scratching their heads. |
....from 6.9% to 11.2% in the week ending 24/10. Cases have risen by 50% in the last week.
The latest German figures show an increase from 6% to 8%, cases up buy around 40%.
Ours is hovering around 5% for the similar period, with cases dropping by around 10%.
I struggle to see how people that appear to be vaguely intelligent don't see that the virus moves in waves and at any given time you can find countries across the world that appear to be dealing either or better or worse with it.
Strange days. | |
| "The sooner he comes back the better, this place has been a disaster without him" - TWTD User (July 2025) |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 11:55 - Oct 29 with 1454 views | StokieBlue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 11:43 - Oct 29 by Reusers_Tash |
Natural immunity is much more effective and durable so will play an ever increasing role in herd immunity. |
It's interesting that you've only ever made two posts on the forum, this being one of them and that you then get the immediate upvote from Digger77.
As discussed in this thread, the current studies aren't showing this to be true so it's wrong to post it as a fact as you have. Also the opening post in this thread cites studies showing that herd immunity probably isn't possible in the conventional sense yet you ignore both of these things. It's more than a tad suspicious to be honest.
I suggest you have a read of this:
We are going up..... by StokieBlue 24 Oct 2021 15:37A few more studies out on this today to go with the one I already cited.
Natural infection is not better protection that vaccine protection and obviously carries the risk of long covid to get the protection:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/24/which-protects-you-more-vaccination-or-prior-infection
And why it's not a good idea to get covid protection from actually getting covid:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/17/the-debilitating-effects-of-long-covid-have-just-begun-to-hit-economies
A very specific example but something that could easily bear out in other areas.
I trust you'll not be pushing the "natural infection" agenda anymore.
SB
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 11:56]
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| The Dutch positivity rate went.... on 12:00 - Oct 29 with 1438 views | StokieBlue |
| The Dutch positivity rate went.... on 11:44 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
....from 6.9% to 11.2% in the week ending 24/10. Cases have risen by 50% in the last week.
The latest German figures show an increase from 6% to 8%, cases up buy around 40%.
Ours is hovering around 5% for the similar period, with cases dropping by around 10%.
I struggle to see how people that appear to be vaguely intelligent don't see that the virus moves in waves and at any given time you can find countries across the world that appear to be dealing either or better or worse with it.
Strange days. |
Whilst there is certainly merit in what you say it's also worth pointing out that it only moves in waves because of human actions.
If it's not given the chance to spread then it doesn't spread and doesn't move in waves. If it's given the chance by humans then we see the waves.
This is why small things like social distancing and mask wearing can reduce the R to less than 1 and we see reductions. A cold winter could be a very bad thing if we don't have some restrictions because it gives the virus the best possible scenario in which to spread.
SB | | | |
| The majority of northern and..... on 12:07 - Oct 29 with 1384 views | ElderGrizzly |
| The majority of northern and..... on 11:00 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
...eastern Europe have a higher positivity rate than we do.
So we can't really look across Europe and see better results.
It's only really the countries on "The Med" that have a lower positivity rate than us. |
The countries in Eastern Europe have a far lower vaccination rate than us too, so i'd agree |  | | |
| The Govt website shows.... on 12:08 - Oct 29 with 1378 views | ElderGrizzly |
| The Govt website shows.... on 11:20 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
....an average of 850,000. |
Because I was referring to England. As I said in my post.
Other nations have had reporting issues, so I took the most 'stable' number. | | | |
| The Dutch positivity rate went.... on 12:13 - Oct 29 with 1355 views | ElderGrizzly |
| The Dutch positivity rate went.... on 11:44 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
....from 6.9% to 11.2% in the week ending 24/10. Cases have risen by 50% in the last week.
The latest German figures show an increase from 6% to 8%, cases up buy around 40%.
Ours is hovering around 5% for the similar period, with cases dropping by around 10%.
I struggle to see how people that appear to be vaguely intelligent don't see that the virus moves in waves and at any given time you can find countries across the world that appear to be dealing either or better or worse with it.
Strange days. |
Agree, most comparisons are pointless across the world, especially on case levels.
We need to worry about our own in a selfish type of way and ask for example is this acceptable?
Even if we appear to test anything that moves, this isn't a great picture for what follows either in terms of hospitalisations or deaths
Someone at work yesterday said our testing programme was like asking someone to find someone with a size 8 shoe in the UK. If you ask 10,000 people you'll find a lot fewer than if you ask 800,000. | | | |
| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 12:17 - Oct 29 with 1350 views | Bloots |
| The Dutch positivity rate went.... on 12:00 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
Whilst there is certainly merit in what you say it's also worth pointing out that it only moves in waves because of human actions.
If it's not given the chance to spread then it doesn't spread and doesn't move in waves. If it's given the chance by humans then we see the waves.
This is why small things like social distancing and mask wearing can reduce the R to less than 1 and we see reductions. A cold winter could be a very bad thing if we don't have some restrictions because it gives the virus the best possible scenario in which to spread.
SB |
...around increasing mask wearing, social distancing etc.
Like you I get frustrated seeing basic facts being ignored or, in some cases, untruths being stated categorically as facts.
In my view there are as many people scaremongering about Covid as there are underestimating it.
From day one I've been concerned about the effect of both. | |
| "The sooner he comes back the better, this place has been a disaster without him" - TWTD User (July 2025) |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 12:35 - Oct 29 with 1271 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 11:43 - Oct 29 by Reusers_Tash |
Natural immunity is much more effective and durable so will play an ever increasing role in herd immunity. |
Please describe the difference between "natural immunity" and whatever other type of immunity you are saying it is more effective than.
And also link some scientific publications that demonstrate this isn't something you have just made up. |  |
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| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 12:43 - Oct 29 with 1238 views | footers |
| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 12:17 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
...around increasing mask wearing, social distancing etc.
Like you I get frustrated seeing basic facts being ignored or, in some cases, untruths being stated categorically as facts.
In my view there are as many people scaremongering about Covid as there are underestimating it.
From day one I've been concerned about the effect of both. |
Difference is, there aren't any real downsides to 'scaremongering'. And is it really scaremongering when what we're talking about is a contagious virus that's killed millions?
Not an equivalence at all. Yet more 'both sides' rubbish really. |  |
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| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 12:47 - Oct 29 with 1228 views | StokieBlue |
| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 12:17 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
...around increasing mask wearing, social distancing etc.
Like you I get frustrated seeing basic facts being ignored or, in some cases, untruths being stated categorically as facts.
In my view there are as many people scaremongering about Covid as there are underestimating it.
From day one I've been concerned about the effect of both. |
Is it possible to scaremonger about something that will cause ~60000 deaths in the UK this year? Almost certainly >16m deaths worldwide if we look at excess deaths data.
Which specific things to do think are scaremongering? I am interested to see how this "both sides" angle manifests itself.
SB | | | |
| I didn't say it was.... on 13:01 - Oct 29 with 1178 views | Bloots |
| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 12:43 - Oct 29 by footers |
Difference is, there aren't any real downsides to 'scaremongering'. And is it really scaremongering when what we're talking about is a contagious virus that's killed millions?
Not an equivalence at all. Yet more 'both sides' rubbish really. |
..."an equivalence", I said I was concerned about the effects of both.
I've lost 3 friends due to Covid in the last 18 months.
1 was due to the medical issues of Covid, 2 were to the mental issues brought on by it.
I consider that to be a downside.
Dismissing and belittling any view that differs from yours isn't a good look. | |
| "The sooner he comes back the better, this place has been a disaster without him" - TWTD User (July 2025) |
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| I didn't say it was.... on 13:08 - Oct 29 with 1141 views | footers |
| I didn't say it was.... on 13:01 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
..."an equivalence", I said I was concerned about the effects of both.
I've lost 3 friends due to Covid in the last 18 months.
1 was due to the medical issues of Covid, 2 were to the mental issues brought on by it.
I consider that to be a downside.
Dismissing and belittling any view that differs from yours isn't a good look. |
So you mean the mental effects of lockdown, not covid?
If people want to avoid future restrictions and have everything 'back to normal' again, the best thing they can do is take personal responsibility and wear a mask to protect themselves and others, even if not directly told to. How or why this is difficult, I have no idea.
And of course I'm sorry to hear about your losses. | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 13:15 - Oct 29 with 1116 views | tw25 |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:58 - Oct 28 by StokieBlue |
I've not considered it but I don't see why I wouldn't spend 40 minutes out of the 525,600 minutes in a year having a jab. It took me 10 minutes each time including the cycle.
Out of interest, would you not have 4 jabs a year if that's what it took?
SB |
Would you have a weekly jab ?
Only if the science said this was the best way to reduce illness of course. | | | |
| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 13:18 - Oct 29 with 1113 views | Bloots |
| I didn't say it was.... on 13:08 - Oct 29 by footers |
So you mean the mental effects of lockdown, not covid?
If people want to avoid future restrictions and have everything 'back to normal' again, the best thing they can do is take personal responsibility and wear a mask to protect themselves and others, even if not directly told to. How or why this is difficult, I have no idea.
And of course I'm sorry to hear about your losses. |
....rather than just jumping in with this new mantra of "both sides".
I said I agree with masks, social distancing etc.
My point, that you and SB have piled into, was specifically about people spreading disinformation about covid, from "both sides" (ha) and that both have consequences.
This thread is starting to remind me of the bad old days of this forum, I was stupid to even attempt to express a point of view.
What a place. | |
| "The sooner he comes back the better, this place has been a disaster without him" - TWTD User (July 2025) |
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| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 13:23 - Oct 29 with 1076 views | footers |
| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 13:18 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
....rather than just jumping in with this new mantra of "both sides".
I said I agree with masks, social distancing etc.
My point, that you and SB have piled into, was specifically about people spreading disinformation about covid, from "both sides" (ha) and that both have consequences.
This thread is starting to remind me of the bad old days of this forum, I was stupid to even attempt to express a point of view.
What a place. |
So what are the consequences to overplaying rather than underplaying? Surely it's better to err on the side of caution when discussing something so serious?
That does seem a 'both sides' argument to me when one is demonstrably worse than the other. [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 13:25]
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| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 13:23 - Oct 29 with 1080 views | StokieBlue |
| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 13:18 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
....rather than just jumping in with this new mantra of "both sides".
I said I agree with masks, social distancing etc.
My point, that you and SB have piled into, was specifically about people spreading disinformation about covid, from "both sides" (ha) and that both have consequences.
This thread is starting to remind me of the bad old days of this forum, I was stupid to even attempt to express a point of view.
What a place. |
I don't think I piled in, I simply wanted to know what the scaremongering side of the argument was. There is a lot of "but both sides" stuff going on here recently so I felt it was right to ask what the other side was.
I am sorry to hear of your losses, the pandemic has been hard for everyone regardless of their viewpoint.
You've not been explicitly clear in your responses to what the scaremongering side is. Am I to infer that it's people saying covid is going to be far worse with more cases than what we actually have seen?
Nobody is stopping you presenting a point of view, just asking for clarity on what that view is (which I still don't have, perhaps I am missing something obvious).
SB | | | |
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