| Herd immunity from covid 22:03 - Oct 28 with 10361 views | StokieBlue |
A number scientists had been floating the idea that herd immunity from covid might be impossible due to the fact that immunised people still carry a high enough viral load to infect other people.
It seems this has been tentatively confirmed by a new study:
Lancet Paper:
https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/s147330992
Guardian Article:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/28/covid-vaccinated-likely-unjabbed-i
Essentially it would render the government strategy of herd immunity (which they have been attempting regardless of what they say) impossible because the unvaccinated cannot rely on the immunity of the vaccinated to prevent them getting infected as they can with other diseases.
The study also highlighted a few worrying things for the vaccinated:
“What we found, surprisingly, was that already by three months after receipt of the second vaccine dose, the risk of acquiring infection was higher compared to being more recently vaccinated,”
This was also interesting given a discussion on here over the last few days around mask wearing and other respiratory viruses:
"Kao suggested the findings also added weight to calls for the introduction of further measures in the UK to tackle the spread of Covid, adding the move could also mitigate the risks posed by other respiratory infections including flu."
Those eligible for boosters should get them straight away.
SB |  | | |  |
| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 14:51 - Oct 29 with 1273 views | StokieBlue |
| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 14:31 - Oct 29 by BanksterDebtSlave |
So you made it up then, no seasonal dip next Summer or such. Thanks for clarifying. Refreshing to see that you are indeed as human as the rest of us at making 'facts' fit perception. |
You know what, I was willing to give you a break but seeing as you're following me around the forum and you've reverted to your frankly horrible posting style of March 2020 I'm not going to.
I tried to make it simple enough for you to understand but clearly I did a bad job.
My extrapolation was for 2021 as I made clear by referencing the higher cases at the start of the year (which is implied seasonality). It was a complicated sentence but I expected you to be able to follow it. I didn't make it up, I based it on known values and a linear extrapolation. Not ideal but better than putting my head in the sand and ignoring the ever increasing death toll of 100 or 200 a day like you seem to want to do.
Given the assumptions that have to be made there isn't anything too horrible with the extrapolation. Taking an average across the year when the annualised distribution has peaks and troughs isn't unreasonable as the peaks will roughly even out the troughs in the form of distribution we are seeing. You seem to want a precise number and you're never going to get that.
It will be interesting to see if covid is actually that seasonal. There is some seasonality due to behavioural changes but it seems far more resistant to summer than other viruses. I assume you've got a peer reviewed study which you can provide which highlights the seasonality of covid and the guarantee of a large dip over the summer? I wouldn't want to accuse you of making "facts" fit your perception.
In the end I think you're acting like a bit of a cockwomble which I had really hoped was behind us.
SB
Edit: Looks like we are at >70000 covid deaths in the UK thus far in 2021 so my linear extrapolation was actually too conservative given we still have 2 months of 2021 left. [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 14:57]
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| Unless I'm missing something..... on 14:59 - Oct 29 with 1233 views | Bloots |
| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 14:51 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
You know what, I was willing to give you a break but seeing as you're following me around the forum and you've reverted to your frankly horrible posting style of March 2020 I'm not going to.
I tried to make it simple enough for you to understand but clearly I did a bad job.
My extrapolation was for 2021 as I made clear by referencing the higher cases at the start of the year (which is implied seasonality). It was a complicated sentence but I expected you to be able to follow it. I didn't make it up, I based it on known values and a linear extrapolation. Not ideal but better than putting my head in the sand and ignoring the ever increasing death toll of 100 or 200 a day like you seem to want to do.
Given the assumptions that have to be made there isn't anything too horrible with the extrapolation. Taking an average across the year when the annualised distribution has peaks and troughs isn't unreasonable as the peaks will roughly even out the troughs in the form of distribution we are seeing. You seem to want a precise number and you're never going to get that.
It will be interesting to see if covid is actually that seasonal. There is some seasonality due to behavioural changes but it seems far more resistant to summer than other viruses. I assume you've got a peer reviewed study which you can provide which highlights the seasonality of covid and the guarantee of a large dip over the summer? I wouldn't want to accuse you of making "facts" fit your perception.
In the end I think you're acting like a bit of a cockwomble which I had really hoped was behind us.
SB
Edit: Looks like we are at >70000 covid deaths in the UK thus far in 2021 so my linear extrapolation was actually too conservative given we still have 2 months of 2021 left. [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 14:57]
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....we've already had 66,391 deaths this year.
I'd say that a figure closer to 75,000 - 80,000 is likely for the whole year.
(just for the sake of balance, and to not downplay it obviously!) |  |
| "He's been a really positive influence on my life, I think he's a great man" - TWTD User (May 2025) |
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| Are you OK.....? on 15:01 - Oct 29 with 1220 views | Bloots |
| Typing "imo" doesn't.... on 14:41 - Oct 29 by footers |
Neither does stating I've been abusive to you, but nice one calling for a ban so early!
Isn't this what you lot used to call a 'pile on'?
Anyway, I'll leave you pwopa lads to your hugbox now so you can all agree with each other. |
....I can't see where I've stated you have been "abusive" to me, and I certainly can't see anyone calling for you to be banned.
Go and have a lie down. | |
| "He's been a really positive influence on my life, I think he's a great man" - TWTD User (May 2025) |
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| Unless I'm missing something..... on 15:05 - Oct 29 with 1213 views | StokieBlue |
| Unless I'm missing something..... on 14:59 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
....we've already had 66,391 deaths this year.
I'd say that a figure closer to 75,000 - 80,000 is likely for the whole year.
(just for the sake of balance, and to not downplay it obviously!) |
I didn't know the actual figure when doing my approximation and thus I was trying to be conservative so I wouldn't be accused of scaremongering in exactly the way that BDS has accused me.
I did look up the approximate figure after I had responded to him and it shows that my approximations were not that unreasonable with the assumptions made. I am hoping the underlying assumptions will be lower for next year but given we have been running at steady deaths for quite a long time now this could be the baseline for the number of cases and vaccinations we have. More data is required.
I'll now wait patiently for him to provide the evidence for his assumptions after the demands he made to me.
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 15:10]
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| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 15:09 - Oct 29 with 1200 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 13:18 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
....rather than just jumping in with this new mantra of "both sides".
I said I agree with masks, social distancing etc.
My point, that you and SB have piled into, was specifically about people spreading disinformation about covid, from "both sides" (ha) and that both have consequences.
This thread is starting to remind me of the bad old days of this forum, I was stupid to even attempt to express a point of view.
What a place. |
Sadly, a rather toxic atmosphere has returned to the board since the return of [redacted]. But is anyone really surprised?
I don't envy Phil. |  |
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| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 15:13 - Oct 29 with 1188 views | Herbivore |
| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 15:09 - Oct 29 by GlasgowBlue |
Sadly, a rather toxic atmosphere has returned to the board since the return of [redacted]. But is anyone really surprised?
I don't envy Phil. |
Think the likes of [Redacted] respond to [Redacted] in a particular way because of who [Redacted] is rather than because of anything that's been posted. [Redacted] is then blamed for said responses. Was ever thus and it matters little which names you choose to replace [Redacted]. |  |
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| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 15:15 - Oct 29 with 1178 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 14:51 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
You know what, I was willing to give you a break but seeing as you're following me around the forum and you've reverted to your frankly horrible posting style of March 2020 I'm not going to.
I tried to make it simple enough for you to understand but clearly I did a bad job.
My extrapolation was for 2021 as I made clear by referencing the higher cases at the start of the year (which is implied seasonality). It was a complicated sentence but I expected you to be able to follow it. I didn't make it up, I based it on known values and a linear extrapolation. Not ideal but better than putting my head in the sand and ignoring the ever increasing death toll of 100 or 200 a day like you seem to want to do.
Given the assumptions that have to be made there isn't anything too horrible with the extrapolation. Taking an average across the year when the annualised distribution has peaks and troughs isn't unreasonable as the peaks will roughly even out the troughs in the form of distribution we are seeing. You seem to want a precise number and you're never going to get that.
It will be interesting to see if covid is actually that seasonal. There is some seasonality due to behavioural changes but it seems far more resistant to summer than other viruses. I assume you've got a peer reviewed study which you can provide which highlights the seasonality of covid and the guarantee of a large dip over the summer? I wouldn't want to accuse you of making "facts" fit your perception.
In the end I think you're acting like a bit of a cockwomble which I had really hoped was behind us.
SB
Edit: Looks like we are at >70000 covid deaths in the UK thus far in 2021 so my linear extrapolation was actually too conservative given we still have 2 months of 2021 left. [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 14:57]
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As we were discussing future choices about vaccination and other responses it is entirely fair for me to presume that you were extrapolating forwards for the year ahead from now.
Sorry you find being questioned so challenging.
Edit...and as for making things up again...
".. ignoring the ever increasing death toll of 100 or 200 a day like you seem to want to do." [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 15:17]
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| Cumulative at 1st Jan..... on 15:16 - Oct 29 with 1167 views | Bloots |
| Unless I'm missing something..... on 15:05 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
I didn't know the actual figure when doing my approximation and thus I was trying to be conservative so I wouldn't be accused of scaremongering in exactly the way that BDS has accused me.
I did look up the approximate figure after I had responded to him and it shows that my approximations were not that unreasonable with the assumptions made. I am hoping the underlying assumptions will be lower for next year but given we have been running at steady deaths for quite a long time now this could be the baseline for the number of cases and vaccinations we have. More data is required.
I'll now wait patiently for him to provide the evidence for his assumptions after the demands he made to me.
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 15:10]
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.....74,237.
Cumulative yesterday 140,628.
So 66,391 so far this year.
There's a difference between scaremongering and stating facts (either positive or negative), which is the whole premise of what I've been saying. | |
| "He's been a really positive influence on my life, I think he's a great man" - TWTD User (May 2025) |
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| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 15:17 - Oct 29 with 1170 views | StokieBlue |
| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 15:15 - Oct 29 by BanksterDebtSlave |
As we were discussing future choices about vaccination and other responses it is entirely fair for me to presume that you were extrapolating forwards for the year ahead from now.
Sorry you find being questioned so challenging.
Edit...and as for making things up again...
".. ignoring the ever increasing death toll of 100 or 200 a day like you seem to want to do." [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 15:17]
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Will you be providing the data and peer reviewed studies to support your seasonality claim? If we look at the data over the summer, deaths were running at ~100 a day most of the way through it.
I don't mind being challenged. I don't like being talked to in the way you did in your post.
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 15:19]
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| [Redacted] isn't going to [redact] you, you know? (n/t) on 15:20 - Oct 29 with 1149 views | Bloots |
| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 15:13 - Oct 29 by Herbivore |
Think the likes of [Redacted] respond to [Redacted] in a particular way because of who [Redacted] is rather than because of anything that's been posted. [Redacted] is then blamed for said responses. Was ever thus and it matters little which names you choose to replace [Redacted]. |
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| "He's been a really positive influence on my life, I think he's a great man" - TWTD User (May 2025) |
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| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 15:20 - Oct 29 with 1144 views | footers |
| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 15:09 - Oct 29 by GlasgowBlue |
Sadly, a rather toxic atmosphere has returned to the board since the return of [redacted]. But is anyone really surprised?
I don't envy Phil. |
Another waving a yellow card wanting me to get banned.
Shouldn't you be posting more about Jeremy Corbyn now anyway? |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 15:30 - Oct 29 with 1122 views | BlueBadger |
| Herd immunity from covid on 08:55 - Oct 29 by Guthrum |
Smallpox
Influenza
Polio
Three examples of widespread viruses which did not become weaker as they spread. Be wary of applying generalised tendencies to specific situations.
Also, bear in mind that it's primarily vaccination which is keeping down the hospitalisation and death rates (relatively speaking) in this present UK outbreak. |
Also bear in mind that Paz Tribute Act here is also opposed to vaccination.
He's not the brightest. Possibly even thicker than the person he's trying to be. At some point, he'll do what they always do and get himself banned. |  |
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| [Redacted] isn't going to [redact] you, you know? (n/t) on 15:33 - Oct 29 with 1112 views | Herbivore |
| [Redacted] isn't going to [redact] you, you know? (n/t) on 15:20 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
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[Redact] off. | |
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| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 15:42 - Oct 29 with 1083 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 15:17 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
Will you be providing the data and peer reviewed studies to support your seasonality claim? If we look at the data over the summer, deaths were running at ~100 a day most of the way through it.
I don't mind being challenged. I don't like being talked to in the way you did in your post.
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 15:19]
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Have found your post in Blubbers school thread about why I believe you were extrapolating forwards...take a look. | |
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| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 15:50 - Oct 29 with 1058 views | StokieBlue |
| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 15:42 - Oct 29 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Have found your post in Blubbers school thread about why I believe you were extrapolating forwards...take a look. |
Not sure what a thread from at least a month ago has to do with this one but even so, I think we can extrapolate forward a bit if you really want.
To be honest, given what we know with regards to covid at the moment and the level of cases we have without restrictions even during summer I don't feel that uncomfortable if you do want to take it as a rough prediction for next year.
New evidence might come to light and it might be wrong but with what we know it's not too outrageous. It's also something to focus the mind on why we should be having some form of restrictions, even if they are minimal.
The main point I want to make is that deaths are moving along at a rate which will add up to a large number but because it's 150 every day rather than weeks of 10 then weeks of 1000 I think that fact tends to get lost.
Feel free to bookmark the thread and we can discuss in October 2022 with regards to any new evidence that may have totally skewed the extrapolation.
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 15:52]
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| Cumulative at 1st Jan..... on 15:51 - Oct 29 with 1055 views | StokieBlue |
| Cumulative at 1st Jan..... on 15:16 - Oct 29 by Bloots |
.....74,237.
Cumulative yesterday 140,628.
So 66,391 so far this year.
There's a difference between scaremongering and stating facts (either positive or negative), which is the whole premise of what I've been saying. |
So R has grown to 1.1 to 1.3 this week which is strange given the number of positive cases has fallen. It would imply they think they are missing an awful lot of positive cases as they also think the infections growth is at between 1% and 3%.
SB | | | |
| Cumulative at 1st Jan..... on 16:04 - Oct 29 with 1009 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Cumulative at 1st Jan..... on 15:51 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
So R has grown to 1.1 to 1.3 this week which is strange given the number of positive cases has fallen. It would imply they think they are missing an awful lot of positive cases as they also think the infections growth is at between 1% and 3%.
SB |
There is quite a lag in publishing some data. Take the daily report issued around 4pm each day. It shows new cases in the past 24 hours but the map showing cases in previous 7 days by local authority area is always five days behind. |  |
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| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 17:08 - Oct 29 with 950 views | jaykay |
| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 15:09 - Oct 29 by GlasgowBlue |
Sadly, a rather toxic atmosphere has returned to the board since the return of [redacted]. But is anyone really surprised?
I don't envy Phil. |
as if by magic he appears. talk about trying to put the boot in , by someone who turned a thread toxic himself a couple of days ago. |  |
| forensic experts say footers and spruces fingerprints were not found at the scene after the weekends rows |
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| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 17:14 - Oct 29 with 925 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 17:08 - Oct 29 by jaykay |
as if by magic he appears. talk about trying to put the boot in , by someone who turned a thread toxic himself a couple of days ago. |
Link? | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 17:39 - Oct 29 with 876 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| Herd immunity from covid on 13:15 - Oct 29 by tw25 |
Would you have a weekly jab ?
Only if the science said this was the best way to reduce illness of course. |
Science says you have to do that for Diabetes ( even more often ). |  | | |
| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 17:48 - Oct 29 with 844 views | Seablu |
| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 15:09 - Oct 29 by GlasgowBlue |
Sadly, a rather toxic atmosphere has returned to the board since the return of [redacted]. But is anyone really surprised?
I don't envy Phil. |
With you whining in his ear like a busted Honda C50 every time your tiresome agenda gets rumbled, I don’t envy him either.
You have the self awareness of a paperclip. [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 17:48]
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| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 17:52 - Oct 29 with 800 views | footers |
| Perhaps you should read my post..... on 17:14 - Oct 29 by GlasgowBlue |
Link? |
Every single thread you've derailed in the name of your huge anti-Corbyn agenda, regardless of topic? Hell, we could be talking about steam fairs and you'd manage to wangle something in.
But those who know, know.
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| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 17:54 - Oct 29 with 789 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| I don't disagree with any of the points made..... on 15:50 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
Not sure what a thread from at least a month ago has to do with this one but even so, I think we can extrapolate forward a bit if you really want.
To be honest, given what we know with regards to covid at the moment and the level of cases we have without restrictions even during summer I don't feel that uncomfortable if you do want to take it as a rough prediction for next year.
New evidence might come to light and it might be wrong but with what we know it's not too outrageous. It's also something to focus the mind on why we should be having some form of restrictions, even if they are minimal.
The main point I want to make is that deaths are moving along at a rate which will add up to a large number but because it's 150 every day rather than weeks of 10 then weeks of 1000 I think that fact tends to get lost.
Feel free to bookmark the thread and we can discuss in October 2022 with regards to any new evidence that may have totally skewed the extrapolation.
SB [Post edited 29 Oct 2021 15:52]
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"To be honest, given what we know with regards to covid at the moment and the level of cases we have without restrictions even during summer I don't feel that uncomfortable if you do want to take it as a rough prediction for next year."
Well we got there in the end. If anybody had extrapolated forwards in the same manner based on the death figures in May, June or July you would rightly have been all over them.
Fwiw I broadly agree with your wider points which is why I still wear a mask even to go up the steps in the Cobbold stand and think a firebreak now would make sense. | |
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