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Here's a blog from a doc I stumbled on a few months ago when I had Covid and wanted some facts and not opinions or government spin. The first vid I saw of his was brutal 'cos his interpretation of the facts had no sugar coating. This vid is in the same tone but the message about Omicron is encouraging. I wish this guy was my doctor. Watch the first 90 seconds and you'll watch the whole thing. Proper facts delivered concisely and with no fuss.
If you only have 30 secs then watch 4.40 onwards.
[Post edited 11 Dec 2021 20:10]
Don't believe a word I say. I'm only kidding. Or am I?
Reflecting on SA experience with Omricon thus far in Gauteng - the epicentre in SA. 1. Rate of increase per capita much quicker than any of previous three waves. Strongly suggestive of more transmissible than even delta. 2. Positivity rate 30-40% in some settings.
I've watched a few of his vids since you recommended him to the board a while back. He can get a bit carried away at times with some of his theories, but he always presents facts and citations, and presents quite complex biological information in a way ignorant punters like me can understand. He seems to have been proven right about the aspiration thing as well.
That's pretty misleading from the bit I watched - the Omicron Wave could still be very, very bad based on what we currently know, and he doesn't seem to be aware that in infectious disease increased transmissibility is generally more dangerous than increased pathogenicity.
I've watched a few of his vids since you recommended him to the board a while back. He can get a bit carried away at times with some of his theories, but he always presents facts and citations, and presents quite complex biological information in a way ignorant punters like me can understand. He seems to have been proven right about the aspiration thing as well.
Can't take the credit for that. Not sure who first posted his videos on here but it wasn't me.
I feel a bit guilty as when things improved I stopped watching. I might start again now though. For quite a while I watched every video he made.
January and February are depressing enough as it is and you can see what's coming with this new variant.
[Post edited 11 Dec 2021 20:55]
What he said though was correct, it could have been like MERS and we would be in the sh1t.
I still think we have been extremely lucky, Covid-19 hasn't had much effect on kids and the deaths are minimal - it's not like millions per country have died after all.
“Hello, I'm your MP. Actually I'm not. I'm your candidate. Gosh.”
Boris Johnson canvassing in Henley, 2005.
What he said though was correct, it could have been like MERS and we would be in the sh1t.
I still think we have been extremely lucky, Covid-19 hasn't had much effect on kids and the deaths are minimal - it's not like millions per country have died after all.
im sick of it all now. It's not going away so just get jabbed and live life as normal.
Hopefully that will be the case but there is already a mutated variant of Omicron which we know very little about and which can't be spotted using S gene dropouts on PCR tests.
People need to get their boosters (which I know most on here have/are doing) and that will help things immensely.
Some of his videos are very good, others are not so good (such as the one about Japan a few weeks back). I think it's a bit early to say it's "probably going to be the end of the pandemic" although it's certainly possible.
As an aside he couldn't be your doctor as he's a nurse rather than an MD.
South Africa has a poor vaccination rate so your final sentence doesn’t apply.
43 cases in young adults with 3/4s of them double vaccinated doesn't provide any evidence that could be used to compare with the pathogenicity of previous waves - it's inevitable that Omicron results in proportionally less hospitalisations and deaths than Alpha and Delta because of greater previous exposure, but it's wrong to say that this means it is more 'mild'. It will take a dataset of thousands of cases and months of research to compare pathogenicity.
Also, in South Africa, the Delta wave was thought to have infected a very high proportion of the population.
Some of his videos are very good, others are not so good (such as the one about Japan a few weeks back). I think it's a bit early to say it's "probably going to be the end of the pandemic" although it's certainly possible.
As an aside he couldn't be your doctor as he's a nurse rather than an MD.
SB
[Post edited 11 Dec 2021 22:02]
The suggestion that this is the end of the pandemic is probably misleading as well - it's probably better to characterise this as the beginning of endemic covid-19, where each autumn/winter there's a new strain that needs to be dealt with. The fact that Omicron is highly transmissible means that more virus circulates and thus the chances of dangerous mutations and vaccine escape is greater in the future.
The suggestion that this is the end of the pandemic is probably misleading as well - it's probably better to characterise this as the beginning of endemic covid-19, where each autumn/winter there's a new strain that needs to be dealt with. The fact that Omicron is highly transmissible means that more virus circulates and thus the chances of dangerous mutations and vaccine escape is greater in the future.
That would be more accurate as you say.
Omicron has already mutated into the BA.2 variant which is growing but untraceable using the PCR s-gene dropout and we know very little about that variant so as you say, variants are and will arise.
Some of his videos are very good, others are not so good (such as the one about Japan a few weeks back). I think it's a bit early to say it's "probably going to be the end of the pandemic" although it's certainly possible.
As an aside he couldn't be your doctor as he's a nurse rather than an MD.
SB
[Post edited 11 Dec 2021 22:02]
I did see him being cited by a few anti vaxers because of that Japan video. There was another video too about intravenous injections that caused some alarm.
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