| Ukraine War about to escalate? 14:00 - Sep 27 with 4158 views | blueasfook |
Results expected in Vlad's sham referendums to show "most" people want to join Russia. Russia's nuclear doctrine can then come into play (IE. Use of nuclear arms where Russian territory is threatened).
It's definitely going to ramp up if they start using nukes - even small yield tactical nukes.
Inflation/cost of living will be the least of our worries.
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:10 - Sep 27 with 2758 views | giant_stow |
Once the 'referendum' result is out, I guess an ultimatum will be issued demanding Ukraine removes its troops from the Donbass and when they refuse, gawd only knows what happens.
Have read various stuff on what happens next If the Russians do nuke something - the mentions include:
Forcing China and India to ditch Russia on pain of economic war.
Attacking a Russian military base in Crimea, with conventional weapons
Attacking a military base in Russia (gulp) with conventional weapons
Attacking Russian forces in Ukraine
Attacking the military equipment / installations used to conduct the Russian nuke
Attacking / sinking a Russian warship
Haven't seen many mentions of attacking the Russians with a nuke.
Interested to know if anyone's got any other possibles there... |  |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:11 - Sep 27 with 2766 views | Guthrum |
That is not Russia's official nuclear doctrine.
It is actually to respond with nuclear weapons only if there is an existential threat to the Russian state, not merely an encroachment upon their territory. As demonstrated with Ukrainian attacks which have fallen upon Crimea (unilaterally annexed by Russia, thus considered by Moscow as part of the nation) and Belgorod (Russia proper), which did not receive a nuclear response. [Post edited 27 Sep 2022 14:11]
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:14 - Sep 27 with 2716 views | giant_stow |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:11 - Sep 27 by Guthrum |
That is not Russia's official nuclear doctrine.
It is actually to respond with nuclear weapons only if there is an existential threat to the Russian state, not merely an encroachment upon their territory. As demonstrated with Ukrainian attacks which have fallen upon Crimea (unilaterally annexed by Russia, thus considered by Moscow as part of the nation) and Belgorod (Russia proper), which did not receive a nuclear response. [Post edited 27 Sep 2022 14:11]
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That's a nice positive angle I'd not seen - thanks. | |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:17 - Sep 27 with 2698 views | Churchman |
I think it’ll escalate, but I agree with the view in this article that if he tries it, he’s finished
https://www.businessinsider.com/medvedev-nato-wont-help-ukraine-russia-fires-nuk
For even threatening nuclear they are an abomination. As for their so called elections, what a farce. It makes no difference whatsoever. What would Putin say if Germany said it wanted Kalingrad back as it had held an election with all the surviving Prussian families displaced after WW2 (it used to be Konigsberg) and NATO would nuke Russia if it didn’t get it? It’s much the same argument.
Biden has to lay out the consequences. Make it clear then it’s up to Putin. |  | | |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:21 - Sep 27 with 2671 views | Guthrum |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:14 - Sep 27 by giant_stow |
That's a nice positive angle I'd not seen - thanks. |
It is and it isn't. There's nothing stopping the Russians from going against their own doctrine*. But for something the significance of nuclear weapon use, it is, perhaps, more of a brake.
Another caveat is that the Russians regard very small "tactical" nukes in a different way to strategic-level weapons, seeing them as just very large bombs and thus not necessarily triggering of an all-out exchange. However, that is not the way they are perceived in the West, so could prompt a strong response. Plus they are tactically not all that useful when not aiming at major troop concentrations. With a limited effect, what would the point be of crossing such a major red line?
* They have at a tactical level in the conduct of this war already, notably in the clumsy and slow way the offensives have been conducted. | |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:22 - Sep 27 with 2662 views | Churchman |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:10 - Sep 27 by giant_stow |
Once the 'referendum' result is out, I guess an ultimatum will be issued demanding Ukraine removes its troops from the Donbass and when they refuse, gawd only knows what happens.
Have read various stuff on what happens next If the Russians do nuke something - the mentions include:
Forcing China and India to ditch Russia on pain of economic war.
Attacking a Russian military base in Crimea, with conventional weapons
Attacking a military base in Russia (gulp) with conventional weapons
Attacking Russian forces in Ukraine
Attacking the military equipment / installations used to conduct the Russian nuke
Attacking / sinking a Russian warship
Haven't seen many mentions of attacking the Russians with a nuke.
Interested to know if anyone's got any other possibles there... |
According to Lord Dannett Nato could remove the Russian navy with one sneeze. I suspect if it declared a no fly zone (should have been done the day before the invasion), that’s Putins air assets gone or grounded, making ground ops even tougher.
Nobody is going to fire a nuclear weapon at Russia and despite the theatrics I don’t think Russia will fire one at Ukraine or anyone else either. | | | |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:32 - Sep 27 with 2614 views | giant_stow |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:22 - Sep 27 by Churchman |
According to Lord Dannett Nato could remove the Russian navy with one sneeze. I suspect if it declared a no fly zone (should have been done the day before the invasion), that’s Putins air assets gone or grounded, making ground ops even tougher.
Nobody is going to fire a nuclear weapon at Russia and despite the theatrics I don’t think Russia will fire one at Ukraine or anyone else either. |
A no-fly zone might in itself start a wider war though, if NATO planes shoot at anything, I spose.
You must be right in your 2nd para, but the unnerving thing is if Russia doesn't nuke something, what else has it got left to get its way? | |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:38 - Sep 27 with 2570 views | lowhouseblue |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:32 - Sep 27 by giant_stow |
A no-fly zone might in itself start a wider war though, if NATO planes shoot at anything, I spose.
You must be right in your 2nd para, but the unnerving thing is if Russia doesn't nuke something, what else has it got left to get its way? |
in terms of what else has it got left, i suspect we are left with the same questions that we started with back in the spring -how mad is putin and how secure is his regime. the hope is that he's not too mad and / or his regime is not too secure since a changing of power in the kremlin - short of a coup - may be the only non-catastrophic exit. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:39 - Sep 27 with 2551 views | ElderGrizzly |
The Nordstream pipeline has just 'sprung' three significant leaks.
I'd assume that isn't an accident. |  | | |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:41 - Sep 27 with 2511 views | Samuelowen88 |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:39 - Sep 27 by ElderGrizzly |
The Nordstream pipeline has just 'sprung' three significant leaks.
I'd assume that isn't an accident. |
Wonder if it fell out of a window. |  |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:42 - Sep 27 with 2494 views | clive_baker |
Oh fecking hell, just what I needed to read on a Tuesday afternoon.
Think I need another chocolate digestive. |  |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:43 - Sep 27 with 2462 views | bungaytractor |
Cant we just send in the sas to help..... |  | | |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:45 - Sep 27 with 2434 views | Guthrum |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:39 - Sep 27 by ElderGrizzly |
The Nordstream pipeline has just 'sprung' three significant leaks.
I'd assume that isn't an accident. |
That's Nordstream2, tho, which was already not in commission. | |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:47 - Sep 27 with 2410 views | jeera |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:45 - Sep 27 by Guthrum |
That's Nordstream2, tho, which was already not in commission. |
Which could explain the buffering during the second half.
Again! |  |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:55 - Sep 27 with 2332 views | nodge_blue |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:11 - Sep 27 by Guthrum |
That is not Russia's official nuclear doctrine.
It is actually to respond with nuclear weapons only if there is an existential threat to the Russian state, not merely an encroachment upon their territory. As demonstrated with Ukrainian attacks which have fallen upon Crimea (unilaterally annexed by Russia, thus considered by Moscow as part of the nation) and Belgorod (Russia proper), which did not receive a nuclear response. [Post edited 27 Sep 2022 14:11]
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Yeah but didn't Putin change the angle on that the other day and just referenced defending russian land. |  |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:56 - Sep 27 with 2311 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:42 - Sep 27 by clive_baker |
Oh fecking hell, just what I needed to read on a Tuesday afternoon.
Think I need another chocolate digestive. |
Milk or plain? I've always considered the plain chocolate ones to be more sophisticated. |  |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:56 - Sep 27 with 2314 views | Steve_M |
It possibly already has, big gas leaks from both Nordstream 1 and Nordstream 2 after explosions reported yesterday. Not that anyone was expecting any gas from that route this Winter but now looks impossible.
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 15:01 - Sep 27 with 2240 views | Churchman |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:38 - Sep 27 by lowhouseblue |
in terms of what else has it got left, i suspect we are left with the same questions that we started with back in the spring -how mad is putin and how secure is his regime. the hope is that he's not too mad and / or his regime is not too secure since a changing of power in the kremlin - short of a coup - may be the only non-catastrophic exit. |
A view on Putin’s regime from ‘The Hill’. If Putin and his sycophants read it, they’ll get a bit grumpy. Oh well, life’s full of disappointments
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3661061-russia-is-a-failed-state/ | | | |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 15:04 - Sep 27 with 2196 views | jeera |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:32 - Sep 27 by giant_stow |
A no-fly zone might in itself start a wider war though, if NATO planes shoot at anything, I spose.
You must be right in your 2nd para, but the unnerving thing is if Russia doesn't nuke something, what else has it got left to get its way? |
Thing is, we've got to ask, what would Russia gain from increasing the stakes like that.
We know their leader is a egotistical loon and maybe capable of escalation through no reason other than vain pride, but what of the country and its people?
Assuming he wouldn't have sole control over that sort of weaponry what incentive is there for his main men to go along with possible, even probable, mutual destruction? If there was huge personal gain to be had then you could maybe see a few greedy close followers going along with it but surely there's nothing to be had, only whatever they already have to be lost. And these aren't going to be the poor in society, these people will already be well-off.
Although I suppose it could be argued that point has already been made in-house hence the untimely deaths of a number already. | |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 15:05 - Sep 27 with 2179 views | Ely_Blue |
Not sure that it will come to nukes yet but you can definitely see the plan of “you are attacking Russian territory so we will retaliate harder” coming in |  |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 15:05 - Sep 27 with 2164 views | NthQldITFC |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:41 - Sep 27 by Samuelowen88 |
Wonder if it fell out of a window. |
Had a tea-screen-spurt moment there. Thanks! |  |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 15:08 - Sep 27 with 2133 views | clive_baker |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:56 - Sep 27 by Swansea_Blue |
Milk or plain? I've always considered the plain chocolate ones to be more sophisticated. |
Not sure I'm familiar with the difference. I've got milk chocolate digestives and custard creams in the tin, both excellent biscuits. I'm nearly ready for my 3:30 coffee and biscuit, I think I'll go for choc digestive on this occasion. | |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 15:11 - Sep 27 with 2081 views | giant_stow |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 15:04 - Sep 27 by jeera |
Thing is, we've got to ask, what would Russia gain from increasing the stakes like that.
We know their leader is a egotistical loon and maybe capable of escalation through no reason other than vain pride, but what of the country and its people?
Assuming he wouldn't have sole control over that sort of weaponry what incentive is there for his main men to go along with possible, even probable, mutual destruction? If there was huge personal gain to be had then you could maybe see a few greedy close followers going along with it but surely there's nothing to be had, only whatever they already have to be lost. And these aren't going to be the poor in society, these people will already be well-off.
Although I suppose it could be argued that point has already been made in-house hence the untimely deaths of a number already. |
Yeah see your point, but he may believe that the west would be too scared to retaliate, perhaps correctly? No idea. . | |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 15:13 - Sep 27 with 2055 views | giant_stow |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 14:56 - Sep 27 by Steve_M |
It possibly already has, big gas leaks from both Nordstream 1 and Nordstream 2 after explosions reported yesterday. Not that anyone was expecting any gas from that route this Winter but now looks impossible.
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What's to be gained out of these leaks, if you don;t mind me asking? Can they cause an environmental calamity? Is it a demonstration of what they can do? I remember there was a lot of talk a while back of the dangers of Russia attacking sub-sea infrastructure... | |
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| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 15:27 - Sep 27 with 1928 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Ukraine War about to escalate? on 15:13 - Sep 27 by giant_stow |
What's to be gained out of these leaks, if you don;t mind me asking? Can they cause an environmental calamity? Is it a demonstration of what they can do? I remember there was a lot of talk a while back of the dangers of Russia attacking sub-sea infrastructure... |
It’s just economic underhand warfare without declaring so (so that he can play victim as always). An escalation of all the ‘unscheduled maintenance’ in recent months.
Be interesting how tolerant those oligarchs who’ve not tripped over their balconies are. Russia are already burning off millions of dollars of gas every day as they can’t store any more or transport it elsewhere in volume. | | | |
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