By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions. We in turn value your personal details in accordance with our Privacy Policy.
Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
Everyone; things are really expensive at the moment I’m worried about our finances and our ability to pay for the basics never mind a holiday new telly etc Bank of England; hold my pint
In the spirit of reconciliation and happiness at the end of the Banter Era (RIP) and as a result of promotion I have cleared out my ignore list. Look forwards to reading your posts!
i think the state has a role in providing a safety net when individuals take what are standard financial risks. we all benefit from an economy in which people take on reasonable debt and mortgages etc and people shouldn't be punished for that. in this case the safety net should involve regulating the mortgage market to ensure that when monetary policy is tight alternatives to mortgage default are available and people don't lose their houses because of relatively short-term factors.
Yeah I think Martin whathischops is campaigning for banks to be ultra relaxed on missed payments and forbearance and that makes a lot of sense. But I'd say the Liberal's idea of mortgage payment support is a proper regressive stinker and would also fly in the face of trying to bring down inflation.
Not sure if this is all short term of not though..
Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
"Maybe stretching your budgets so much on your mortgage payments wasn't the best idea"
That's not a very charitable statement when interest rates have gone from 0.1% at the start of Dec 2021 to 5% 18 months on. Nobody would have foreseen this rapid rise over a 2 year fixed rate term. It's going to leave a lot of very sensible, prudent people struggling, let alone those that genuinely overstretched with whopping mortgages.
My fixed term ends in 8 days time. I managed to lock a new term in at a rate a few months back that, while now looking 'cheap', is still a fair amount higher than the rate I'm on for the next 8 days. I'm somewhat fortunate in that the absolute level of debt I have is lower than it once was, and I can stomach the increase. It's enough to hurt me but not enough to break me, it's going to cost me an extra £4k - £5k a year, and I'll make sacrifices elsewhere to offset it, but I'm acutely aware that many people don't have that luxury.
To try to 'victim shame' people is distasteful, when as you say the decisions made over the past few years weren't foolhardy, but a necessity for many.
I do think some people will have pushed themselves way too far to be fair.
But at the same time, house prices are just ridiculous. I hope they fall and stabilise but I doubt that's going to happen.
The only ways house prices are going to fall by any significant amount is surely by ramping up supply with a massive housebuilding program. Just so much demand pressure.
Think it's 30% mortgage, 40% rent and 30% own outright which were quoted this morning.
Private renters will get hit as landlords push up rents to compensate, so that's that 40% dealt with.
The latter 30% tend to be older, which is of course the Tory target market and they care more about savings rates than debt. So they and they Tories won't give a toss.
And then a deep recession caused by less money being around will stop spending to a degree. They called out the service industry this morning as a contributory factor to inflation. That will be decimated like during Covid over the next 12 months.
Ah fair enough - didn't realise it was 30% of homes, rather than home-owners.
I;d hate to be a landlord right now - what happens when renters simply can;t afford to pay the next rise?
Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
The only ways house prices are going to fall by any significant amount is surely by ramping up supply with a massive housebuilding program. Just so much demand pressure.
Yup, otherwise we end up with a situation where only the wealthy can afford houses anymore.
I mentioned this on here the other day, but the ratio between the average house price and the average wage is nearly 10x, the worst it has been since the 1800s. We can't keep going on like this. An economy relying on house prices ever increasing so we can pay for social care is just so dumb.
The young are continuously taking economic hits and have been since the last financial crisis.
Yeah I think Martin whathischops is campaigning for banks to be ultra relaxed on missed payments and forbearance and that makes a lot of sense. But I'd say the Liberal's idea of mortgage payment support is a proper regressive stinker and would also fly in the face of trying to bring down inflation.
Not sure if this is all short term of not though..
If we're going down the mortgage support route lets just go straight to UBI for everyone. Covid and this crisis have shown us it's the future.
We can afford it. We can pay for it. Remember that the benefits of technology were going to benefit us all?
Replace two checkout staff with two self service tills? No problem but you will be paying the National Fund 50% of what it would have cost to pay two staff.
Same for anything which has automation. That would be a shock to Amazon. They don't even pay their humans properly. Imagine them needing to pay the National Fund for their machines.
I've come up with this in about 2 mins. It would clearly need some refining. Anyone got a good argument against it? Prices would rise but not enough to offset the benefit. Anything else? The likes of Tesco might go fully self service and cut jobs. Another issue but they would still be paying the fund. The NHS would save a fortune as people were healthier and less stressed.
Indeed. Add to that the problem of landlords with rising mortgage costs either raising the rent or cutting out and selling up, renters are not in a great position here either.
But governments approach for pretty much my entire life has been to protect homeowners and to support ever increasing house prices.
Even now the triple lock on state pension isn't touched and just more and more goes to those who have the most
Ah fair enough - didn't realise it was 30% of homes, rather than home-owners.
I;d hate to be a landlord right now - what happens when renters simply can;t afford to pay the next rise?
the other huge change is the switch to fixed rate mortgages. these have grown hugely over the last 15 years or so. it means that, even amongst the 30% with mortgages, not all borrowers are affected at the same time, and the benefit when rates come down again is delayed for many. this makes the impact of interest rate rises even more unequal than it used to be.
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
Yup, otherwise we end up with a situation where only the wealthy can afford houses anymore.
I mentioned this on here the other day, but the ratio between the average house price and the average wage is nearly 10x, the worst it has been since the 1800s. We can't keep going on like this. An economy relying on house prices ever increasing so we can pay for social care is just so dumb.
The young are continuously taking economic hits and have been since the last financial crisis.
"The young are continuously taking economic hits and have been since the last financial crisis."
Yeap - i think they should turn and kick off. Everything, literally everything is run against their interests.
Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
Even now the triple lock on state pension isn't touched and just more and more goes to those who have the most
a lot of those receiving the state pension wouldn't count amongst those 'who have the most'. there is huge inequality amongst the elderly and there are many on very low incomes.
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
The only ways house prices are going to fall by any significant amount is surely by ramping up supply with a massive housebuilding program. Just so much demand pressure.
That's the elephant in the room.
Successive governments don't want mass housebuilding as it keeps the existing property market inflated, and it's the only thing we have as growth in this country.
A day of reckoning is upon us, this country is royally, royally screwed.
a lot of those receiving the state pension wouldn't count amongst those 'who have the most'. there is huge inequality amongst the elderly and there are many on very low incomes.
Course, but it's safe to say those of that age group are generally better off than the younger age groups (especially re home ownership) and yet they are always heavily insulated against anything that the normal populace has to deal with
The mortgage market is mad, but even as a homeowner I find the calls to help people out with seemingly financial help odd when there is no talk of it being done for private renters who are getting the costs passed onto them anyway
I'd love a bit of help with the mortgage, but don't see why I deserve it over anyone else who doesn't own a house
Not true. The rental market is like all else. Rents will fetch what the market will bear. NOT what the landlord wants or needs.
If that was the case then no landlord would ever go bankrupt.
And it assumes all landlords are at the same stage of mortgage repayments. Obviously they are not. So should a landlord raise the rent based on his repayments, or what the property will fetch in rent ? The latter, obviously.
In this area, we are now reaping the harvest of years of low house building. We are seeing it more profitable to let property on a holiday/airBNB basis than rented as a 'home'.
This laissez faire attitude to the economy has always ended up as blowing up in their faces. The concern is how many will suffer before a GE turfs these ideologues out and we start to address the cause ?
Then they need to consistently vote, until that happens the Govt will look after the old codgers who do.
I don't understand why people don't, I've voted every time* I can since 18 in every election whether it be local, general or a referendum.
*I missed a GE once as my wife took me away on a surprise holiday for 30th and didn't have a postal vote
I do think (hope?) it'll start changing soon. We'll see at the next election. Conservatives are starting to get worried that their base is literally dying off though, but it's oh-so easy to appeal to the elderly at our expense.
I think I've voted every time except 2019 as I was registered at home at the time, which was in the speaker's constituency. My first introduction to democracy wasn't great.
Course, but it's safe to say those of that age group are generally better off than the younger age groups (especially re home ownership) and yet they are always heavily insulated against anything that the normal populace has to deal with
this in 2021 median pre tax income by age group. clearly there is also a life cycle wealth effect where by older people have savings. plus there is the wealth effects associated with rising house prices and occupational pensions. that doesn't apply to all of the elderly - many don't own houses and don't have private pensions. but in terms of income the elderly are on average not well off.
Age range Median income before tax Under 20 15,900 20-24 19,400 25-29 25,200 30-34 28,300 35-39 30,300 40-44 31,800 45-49 31,800 50-54 30,800 55-59 29,600 60-64 26,600 65-69 23,300 70-74 21,300 75 and over 20,200
[Post edited 22 Jun 2023 13:15]
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
One thing you need to remember in this context is, governments like inflation as it pushes up their tax returns amongst other reasons. You say “it’ll work”. When?
However, it also increases public dissatisfaction with the government*, who are going to have to stand for re-election at some point.
* Doubly so if the press is full of stories of political donore and ministers' friends making large profits from dubious contracts.
Anybody know if house prices and rent count towards inflation?
cpih includes rent changes as a proxy for all forms of home occupancy. it doesn't reflect house prices.
And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show
There's a guy that J2 has been posting a lot (Gary Stevenson) who has changed my view a bit on this. He's a former trader turned economist and he went over some of this. Originally I was with you and a few others but surely this is just making a bad problem worse for everyone, in that the issues weren't down to people having money to burn but that the inflation was more down to energy costs + knock on from the war.
He argued that it was more down to us pumping the economy with money over the Covid period which flowed into the wealthy (the properly wealthy) and now inflation is rocketing up. Whilst the Government should be focussing on trying to get some of that back, they're not doing a lot on the fiscal side that really caused it.
Meanwhile, BoE does the monetary side and really they only have this one lever to use, which they are doing. They aren't wrong to do it and it'll work but it is at the expense of the middle class and below whilst the wealthy are ready to hoover up even more stuff, increasing inequality which is already getting quite bad.
I think this was the video he went through it.
It's an interesting view.
Really interesting, thanks (and to J2!). He explains things that even I understand. I don’t have the knowledge to critique what he’s saying, but it sounds sensible. Nobody (really) knows for sure exactly what’s going on and what would help, yet he makes his case very well.
My fixed term ends in 8 days time. I managed to lock a new term in at a rate a few months back that, while now looking 'cheap', is still a fair amount higher than the rate I'm on for the next 8 days. I'm somewhat fortunate in that the absolute level of debt I have is lower than it once was, and I can stomach the increase. It's enough to hurt me but not enough to break me, it's going to cost me an extra £4k - £5k a year, and I'll make sacrifices elsewhere to offset it, but I'm acutely aware that many people don't have that luxury.
To try to 'victim shame' people is distasteful, when as you say the decisions made over the past few years weren't foolhardy, but a necessity for many.
And all those £4k's per year is going straight to the banks.
Not to local businesses, service industry, leisure/entertainment sector etc who will suffer the most.
If we're going down the mortgage support route lets just go straight to UBI for everyone. Covid and this crisis have shown us it's the future.
We can afford it. We can pay for it. Remember that the benefits of technology were going to benefit us all?
Replace two checkout staff with two self service tills? No problem but you will be paying the National Fund 50% of what it would have cost to pay two staff.
Same for anything which has automation. That would be a shock to Amazon. They don't even pay their humans properly. Imagine them needing to pay the National Fund for their machines.
I've come up with this in about 2 mins. It would clearly need some refining. Anyone got a good argument against it? Prices would rise but not enough to offset the benefit. Anything else? The likes of Tesco might go fully self service and cut jobs. Another issue but they would still be paying the fund. The NHS would save a fortune as people were healthier and less stressed.
Sorry, missed your post - very sensible as ever.
Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
this in 2021 median pre tax income by age group. clearly there is also a life cycle wealth effect where by older people have savings. plus there is the wealth effects associated with rising house prices and occupational pensions. that doesn't apply to all of the elderly - many don't own houses and don't have private pensions. but in terms of income the elderly are on average not well off.
Age range Median income before tax Under 20 15,900 20-24 19,400 25-29 25,200 30-34 28,300 35-39 30,300 40-44 31,800 45-49 31,800 50-54 30,800 55-59 29,600 60-64 26,600 65-69 23,300 70-74 21,300 75 and over 20,200
I'm sure stretching budgets wasn't a decision a lot of people opted in to voluntarily, but a reflection of the market and ludicrous property prices in the UK. People need somewhere to live.
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
