| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted 09:59 - Apr 14 with 6710 views | The_Romford_Blue |
Would take a very very unlikely set of results for us to get to 95 now and NOT go up.
Because even if Southampton win all 5 games left for them and get to 96 points, they’ll have beaten Leeds in that which means the latter can only get to 93. They’d have also beaten Leicester which would mean Leicester would need 7 points from WBA, Preston (a) and Blackburn. Which is tough.
If Southampton can beat Leeds and Leicester but drop a point somewhere else (any of the other three games), we’d be up 100% with 2 wins from here.
It feels like a bad result yesterday but in context, we’ve gained on Leeds and Leicester this week when they played two teams battling relegation. It’s a great weekend for us really. |  |
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| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 14:45 - Apr 14 with 1724 views | Vic |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 11:27 - Apr 14 by BABLUE |
Bang on.
We might still finish in the Top 2, but this week has been one of 3 missed opportunities |
I’m sure Leeds and Leicester fans think exactly the same! It s full of ‘if onlys’ isn’t it! But we didn’t win and they didn’t win so we just have to get on with it. We can moan and criticise players, but I’m sure we can be utterly certain that they gave everything and will be as gutted as us that they came up short. |  |
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| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 14:55 - Apr 14 with 1689 views | FoghornGleghorn |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 11:23 - Apr 14 by portmanking |
This is the bit that scares me. People just assume that Leeds and Leicester are going to carry on their indifferent form. It's highly unlikely given how many respective match winners they have in their ranks.
Boro hold all the aces now. A point or better means we're in the driving seat.
But that's why I'm so frustrated how the last week has panned out. Winning one of the last two would have taken it totally out of Leeds' hands. I don't care how well we played on Tues or yesterday frankly. We just needed a win by hook or by crook. We lacked devilment in our play bar the odd Omari burst.
This next fortnight is going to suck. |
"People just assume that Leeds and Leicester are going to carry on their indifferent form."
So why are people just assuming we're going to carry on ours? |  | | |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 15:56 - Apr 14 with 1664 views | Vegtablue |
You're banking on Leeds or Southampton not to finish with W3 or W7, and Leicester not to finish with W2 D1 L1.
Southampton winning 7 is very unlikely, but Leeds have won 3+ in a row 6 times already. 49% of their games belong in win sequences of 3 or more.
Leicester have won 7 of their last 10 at home, 4 of their last 6, 2 of their last 2. They now finish with 3 out of 4 at home. Tough games sure, but W2 D1 L1 would be a par finish for them IMO (even given the collapse we've witnessed of late).
6 points and the probability is much closer to 65% than 95% in my opinion. I'd also suggest the probability of us achieving 6+ points is 50% at best. | | | |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 16:02 - Apr 14 with 1655 views | Vegtablue |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 14:55 - Apr 14 by FoghornGleghorn |
"People just assume that Leeds and Leicester are going to carry on their indifferent form."
So why are people just assuming we're going to carry on ours? |
I'm not sure people are, but we have two very tough matches incoming. We've lost half our matches against top half opposition away from home, averaging 1 PPG. A win and a loss would be very good going in my opinion. I believe we'll win one but I don't underestimate the challenge. [Post edited 14 Apr 2024 16:02]
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| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 16:06 - Apr 14 with 1634 views | pointofblue |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 15:56 - Apr 14 by Vegtablue |
You're banking on Leeds or Southampton not to finish with W3 or W7, and Leicester not to finish with W2 D1 L1.
Southampton winning 7 is very unlikely, but Leeds have won 3+ in a row 6 times already. 49% of their games belong in win sequences of 3 or more.
Leicester have won 7 of their last 10 at home, 4 of their last 6, 2 of their last 2. They now finish with 3 out of 4 at home. Tough games sure, but W2 D1 L1 would be a par finish for them IMO (even given the collapse we've witnessed of late).
6 points and the probability is much closer to 65% than 95% in my opinion. I'd also suggest the probability of us achieving 6+ points is 50% at best. |
Southampton winning seven is exceptionally unlikely considering they only have five games left to play. | |
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| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 16:08 - Apr 14 with 1629 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 16:02 - Apr 14 by Vegtablue |
I'm not sure people are, but we have two very tough matches incoming. We've lost half our matches against top half opposition away from home, averaging 1 PPG. A win and a loss would be very good going in my opinion. I believe we'll win one but I don't underestimate the challenge. [Post edited 14 Apr 2024 16:02]
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All matches in this division are tough.
Would you rather 3 matches against mid table and relegation teams or 2 against mid table and 1 play off sides?
Or would you prefer 2 against play off sides and 2 against mid table ones?
We are top of the 4 teams on current form. There are no guarantees but I am convinced we are in pole position to finish in the top two. |  |
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| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 16:15 - Apr 14 with 1606 views | Vegtablue |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 16:06 - Apr 14 by pointofblue |
Southampton winning seven is exceptionally unlikely considering they only have five games left to play. |
Yes Southampton's chances are incredibly slim, if we achieve 6 points or more. It's unlikely they win their next 2, let alone 5 and thus all 7. Leeds' chances aren't though, and neither are Leicester's. I've got it all out of my system now and will chill alongside the sensible folk until we next play. 😅 | | | |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 16:47 - Apr 14 with 1574 views | Vegtablue |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 16:08 - Apr 14 by Nthsuffolkblue |
All matches in this division are tough.
Would you rather 3 matches against mid table and relegation teams or 2 against mid table and 1 play off sides?
Or would you prefer 2 against play off sides and 2 against mid table ones?
We are top of the 4 teams on current form. There are no guarantees but I am convinced we are in pole position to finish in the top two. |
Given the choice I'd prefer to be in Leicester's position first, then ours. Playing at home is a significant advantage, as is the game in hand given their GD. I wouldn't want to swap with Leeds' situation, yet I only see our top two prospects slightly above 50/50 today.* Having watched a mixture of their games and ours lately, I think we've created a little less than those two overall in this period and we've given up better chances as well.
I would prefer our away matches were against teams with less quality. Both have the tools to beat us if they match our intensity, and I don't buy the notion that mid-table clubs generally depart early for the beach. Bristol, Boro, Sunderland and Watford combined have lost only 2 matches in their past 5 forms, both of those to top 4 opposition. Managers are still fighting for their jobs, players for moves, security, international competitions and more.
I do think the opportunity to rest and respond to others' results is massive though. Hull and Coventry will arrive for our games off the back of busy and very busy schedules; my gut says at least one won't match our intensity on the night, then it's whether we can take our chances.
*To be slightly above 50/50, in my interpretation of the land at least, remains a pinch-myself situation of course. These may be the days! | | | |
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| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 17:18 - Apr 14 with 1527 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 16:47 - Apr 14 by Vegtablue |
Given the choice I'd prefer to be in Leicester's position first, then ours. Playing at home is a significant advantage, as is the game in hand given their GD. I wouldn't want to swap with Leeds' situation, yet I only see our top two prospects slightly above 50/50 today.* Having watched a mixture of their games and ours lately, I think we've created a little less than those two overall in this period and we've given up better chances as well.
I would prefer our away matches were against teams with less quality. Both have the tools to beat us if they match our intensity, and I don't buy the notion that mid-table clubs generally depart early for the beach. Bristol, Boro, Sunderland and Watford combined have lost only 2 matches in their past 5 forms, both of those to top 4 opposition. Managers are still fighting for their jobs, players for moves, security, international competitions and more.
I do think the opportunity to rest and respond to others' results is massive though. Hull and Coventry will arrive for our games off the back of busy and very busy schedules; my gut says at least one won't match our intensity on the night, then it's whether we can take our chances.
*To be slightly above 50/50, in my interpretation of the land at least, remains a pinch-myself situation of course. These may be the days! |
I am not certain that any of the top 3 have found playing at home a particular advantage recently. Leicester lost to Boro and QPR before winning their last two. Leeds have got 1 point from their last two home fixtures against Sunderland and Blackburn. We have got 2 points from Watford and Boro.
In fact, I reckon for Leeds and Leicester, they may well prefer to be away from the pressure of their home fans right now. We might even prefer a side coming at us a bit more in front of their own fans. | |
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| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 21:51 - Apr 14 with 1447 views | Stewart27 |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 15:56 - Apr 14 by Vegtablue |
You're banking on Leeds or Southampton not to finish with W3 or W7, and Leicester not to finish with W2 D1 L1.
Southampton winning 7 is very unlikely, but Leeds have won 3+ in a row 6 times already. 49% of their games belong in win sequences of 3 or more.
Leicester have won 7 of their last 10 at home, 4 of their last 6, 2 of their last 2. They now finish with 3 out of 4 at home. Tough games sure, but W2 D1 L1 would be a par finish for them IMO (even given the collapse we've witnessed of late).
6 points and the probability is much closer to 65% than 95% in my opinion. I'd also suggest the probability of us achieving 6+ points is 50% at best. |
Southampton have 5 games left not seven.
And Leeds and Southampton can’t finish on W3 and W5 respectively because they play each other. | | | |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 22:54 - Apr 14 with 1409 views | Vegtablue |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 21:51 - Apr 14 by Stewart27 |
Southampton have 5 games left not seven.
And Leeds and Southampton can’t finish on W3 and W5 respectively because they play each other. |
Southampton have already won 2 in a row in nervy circumstances, hence their run would need to become 7 for our hypothetical 6 points to be insufficient re finishing above them. And yes that's accounted for, think you've misread my post. Either Leeds or Saints would need to win all remaining games, and Leicester would need the results W2 D1 L1 or better. | | | |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 23:03 - Apr 14 with 1390 views | Europablue |
Some good points there. You only have to compare the quality of the opposition to see that draws against Watford and Middlesborough, both of which we could (should) have won and incidentally almost lost, are better than losses to Millwall and Plymouth and a draw against Sunderland and a loss to Blackburn. In any context we have to be happy that we are top with three games to go knowing if we match our rivals results, we will be promoted.
The big factor that you mentioned being that at least one of Southampton, Leicester, and Leeds have to drop points as they play each other. | | | |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 23:06 - Apr 14 with 1385 views | Europablue |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 11:23 - Apr 14 by portmanking |
This is the bit that scares me. People just assume that Leeds and Leicester are going to carry on their indifferent form. It's highly unlikely given how many respective match winners they have in their ranks.
Boro hold all the aces now. A point or better means we're in the driving seat.
But that's why I'm so frustrated how the last week has panned out. Winning one of the last two would have taken it totally out of Leeds' hands. I don't care how well we played on Tues or yesterday frankly. We just needed a win by hook or by crook. We lacked devilment in our play bar the odd Omari burst.
This next fortnight is going to suck. |
The next fortnight will be relaxing and if Leeds or Leicester drop any points it will be amazing! | | | |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 23:15 - Apr 14 with 1369 views | Europablue |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 16:47 - Apr 14 by Vegtablue |
Given the choice I'd prefer to be in Leicester's position first, then ours. Playing at home is a significant advantage, as is the game in hand given their GD. I wouldn't want to swap with Leeds' situation, yet I only see our top two prospects slightly above 50/50 today.* Having watched a mixture of their games and ours lately, I think we've created a little less than those two overall in this period and we've given up better chances as well.
I would prefer our away matches were against teams with less quality. Both have the tools to beat us if they match our intensity, and I don't buy the notion that mid-table clubs generally depart early for the beach. Bristol, Boro, Sunderland and Watford combined have lost only 2 matches in their past 5 forms, both of those to top 4 opposition. Managers are still fighting for their jobs, players for moves, security, international competitions and more.
I do think the opportunity to rest and respond to others' results is massive though. Hull and Coventry will arrive for our games off the back of busy and very busy schedules; my gut says at least one won't match our intensity on the night, then it's whether we can take our chances.
*To be slightly above 50/50, in my interpretation of the land at least, remains a pinch-myself situation of course. These may be the days! |
The thing is you don't get to swap just the points or the goal difference or the game in hand, you also have to deal with being complete bottle jobs after blowing a 12 point lead and being in absolutely terrible form at the business end of the season. I still expect Leeds to finish above Leicester. Leeds were unlucky against Sunderland, it looked like they had a stonewall penalty. | | | |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 04:07 - Apr 15 with 1322 views | Ryorry |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 11:31 - Apr 14 by smithy69 |
But it does lol - that’s my point
They have 5 points from there last possible 15 points
Leicester have 6 from 15
We have won 8 from 15
I’m not saying they can’t - I’m just saying on current form - they won’t |
Judging by lufc & foxes' most recent current results-based form, I think you might as well chuck the form book through the window!
What's bugging me most is that all this is gluing me to my computer indoors, at the most glorious time of the year when I should be outside enjoying the birdsong, wood anemones, celandines, bluebells just starting to peep out, & the sun glinting through baby leaves on the trees ... [Post edited 15 Apr 2024 4:08]
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| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 07:36 - Apr 15 with 1260 views | Europablue |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 04:07 - Apr 15 by Ryorry |
Judging by lufc & foxes' most recent current results-based form, I think you might as well chuck the form book through the window!
What's bugging me most is that all this is gluing me to my computer indoors, at the most glorious time of the year when I should be outside enjoying the birdsong, wood anemones, celandines, bluebells just starting to peep out, & the sun glinting through baby leaves on the trees ... [Post edited 15 Apr 2024 4:08]
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I know what you mean. I think it would do me good to focus on other things for a the next couple of weeks, but I'm thinking of watching the text feed of the Southampton vs Preston match even though that result is only tangentially related to us. | | | |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 07:45 - Apr 15 with 1247 views | NthQldITFC |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 06:33 - Apr 15 by WicklowBlue |
Bring your computer outdoors?  |
Now that's a good idea.
This is the time of year (as I am always informing TWTD) when I should be valiantly and manfully trying to keep the pigeons off my plums. So far this year I have been singularly unsuccessful and that, in large part, is down to the disruptive influence Mr Kieran McKenna has had on our football club.
It's lateral thinking like yours that got the free world through the last war and could well help in keeping us fed during the coming Premier League season. |  |
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| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 07:53 - Apr 15 with 1233 views | ArchiRob |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 12:22 - Apr 14 by AlexMathie |
This reminds me of Millwall situation at the end of the 95-96 season to get in the play-offs. We drew, didn’t make the play-offs and Millwall still got relegated. Only time I’ve cried at a football match 😂 |
I remember the Millwall fans ripping up the seats at the end of that and using them as missiles into the family enclosure. They then rampaged through the streets - Always had a soft spot for them after that. |  |
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| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 08:25 - Apr 15 with 1212 views | TRUE_BLUE123 |
This thread is gold.
It perfectly reflects what it is like being a Town fan right now. Everyone going through every possible point/result combination. Stressful innit. |  |
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| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 10:25 - Apr 15 with 1164 views | Ryorry |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 06:33 - Apr 15 by WicklowBlue |
Bring your computer outdoors? |
Weight :( "April showers" - translation - rain most of the day, every day since about October :(
I do use my phone sometimes, but rarely, as I'm either working or tryng to control a 26Kg, energetic, 1 yr old Labrador ... | |
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| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 11:23 - Apr 15 with 1118 views | dirtyboy |
| Win 2 of our last 3 games and we’re all but promoted on 12:22 - Apr 14 by AlexMathie |
This reminds me of Millwall situation at the end of the 95-96 season to get in the play-offs. We drew, didn’t make the play-offs and Millwall still got relegated. Only time I’ve cried at a football match 😂 |
Same, felt worse that day than the recent relegation season.
Millwall fans went chicken oriental at the end too, proper messy. |  | | |
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