| How will our investors react if we go down? 09:46 - Jan 26 with 4304 views | shamboy |
Any insights? MA will have a strong contingency plan, that's for sure, but are the investors aligned with it? |  | | |  |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 09:48 - Jan 26 with 3701 views | ITFC_Forever |
Won’t bat an eyelid, this season wasn’t expected so soon in the first place, so they’re ahead anyway. |  |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 09:52 - Jan 26 with 3661 views | bsw72 |
Without doubt, they have talked about a multi year plan for the club and therefore will see this season as a windfall if we go down, but not necessarily changing the medium to long term aims. |  | | |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 09:55 - Jan 26 with 3626 views | MattinLondon |
They seem to be sensible long-term investors who will know that the club is way ahead of schedule.
Doubt whether relegation will bring along any panic or change of direction. |  | | |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 09:57 - Jan 26 with 3617 views | Guthrum |
I very much doubt it was sold to them as a short-term, collect-and-run investment. These are experienced people, who know the vagaries of the sports market and wouldn't have committed the money without proper research.
Two other aspects: A pension firm will have a long-term outlook. The other half of the Gamechanger/ITFC project involves property investing and development. |  |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:03 - Jan 26 with 3554 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 09:48 - Jan 26 by ITFC_Forever |
Won’t bat an eyelid, this season wasn’t expected so soon in the first place, so they’re ahead anyway. |
I think if we go down with a whimper, the fund managers will ask questions about the transfer investments this season.
Relegation won't be a shock if we go down, but they won't be too happy if transfer values have declined overall. |  |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:05 - Jan 26 with 3507 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 09:57 - Jan 26 by Guthrum |
I very much doubt it was sold to them as a short-term, collect-and-run investment. These are experienced people, who know the vagaries of the sports market and wouldn't have committed the money without proper research.
Two other aspects: A pension firm will have a long-term outlook. The other half of the Gamechanger/ITFC project involves property investing and development. |
The property angle is miniscule compared to transfer expenditure. | |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:07 - Jan 26 with 3478 views | shamboy |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:05 - Jan 26 by Marshalls_Mullet |
The property angle is miniscule compared to transfer expenditure. |
Exactly. It's not easy to make even £10m in property, irrespective of resource backing. | | | |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:15 - Jan 26 with 3375 views | Guthrum |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:05 - Jan 26 by Marshalls_Mullet |
The property angle is miniscule compared to transfer expenditure. |
But it is indicative of a longer-term perspective.
'Half' was rather an overstatement. "The other element" would have been better phrasing. | |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:15 - Jan 26 with 3361 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:07 - Jan 26 by shamboy |
Exactly. It's not easy to make even £10m in property, irrespective of resource backing. |
In terms of their investment, any potential profit from property will be a nice to have, rather than a core part of the business plan from a revenue perspective.
This is Portman Road, Ipswich, not prime Real Estate territory. | |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:15 - Jan 26 with 3363 views | BloomBlue |
I'm sure the investors will hold a deep review about why we failed this season if we are relegated. All successful businesses would do the same, ie identify the failure points and try and correct that next time.
I don't think they will pull out/sell, that's more likely to happen if we avoid relegation. |  | | |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:18 - Jan 26 with 3308 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 09:57 - Jan 26 by Guthrum |
I very much doubt it was sold to them as a short-term, collect-and-run investment. These are experienced people, who know the vagaries of the sports market and wouldn't have committed the money without proper research.
Two other aspects: A pension firm will have a long-term outlook. The other half of the Gamechanger/ITFC project involves property investing and development. |
Potentially, but getting planning doesn't mean they will implement it themselves.
I take your point though.
Edit: This was meant as a response to your later post!! [Post edited 26 Jan 10:19]
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:22 - Jan 26 with 3260 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 09:52 - Jan 26 by bsw72 |
Without doubt, they have talked about a multi year plan for the club and therefore will see this season as a windfall if we go down, but not necessarily changing the medium to long term aims. |
There's no profit this year. But the investment in infrastructure and playing squad should hopefully stand us in good stead.
The windfall will be the parachute payments.... depending on how players wages are managed, and how successful player trading is next season. | |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:27 - Jan 26 with 3215 views | badadski |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:22 - Jan 26 by Marshalls_Mullet |
There's no profit this year. But the investment in infrastructure and playing squad should hopefully stand us in good stead.
The windfall will be the parachute payments.... depending on how players wages are managed, and how successful player trading is next season. |
I am not privy to what goes on in the boardroom but this squad looks like it was banded together to develop in the long run, it may keep us up, it might not, it will be close, we will lose a couple of players for big money but the others will stay and can form the same bond and ethics to last years squad for a greater chance to be promoted again and to have a stronger chance of staying in the premier league. We are not a million miles away from competing most games, not expecting anything from the billion pound budget teams but aiming to be a new Brighton, forest or Bournemouth in a few more seasons of picking players with higher ceilings and developing them which is what McKenna does. | | | |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:33 - Jan 26 with 3173 views | Radlett_blue |
The Arizona pension fund, which initially put up a large proportion of the Gamechanger investment in Town, won't necessarily be around for the long term. Town would have been a speculative investment, but the early success & bringing in Bright Path, who bought 40%, should provide some reassurance. It's essentially a consortium, but I think the Arizona fund are fairly passive investors. No doubt Ashton will have a plan for relegation & hopefully we will keep most of our squad & McKenna & have a good chance of bouncing straight back if we go down. |  |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:36 - Jan 26 with 3125 views | bsw72 |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:22 - Jan 26 by Marshalls_Mullet |
There's no profit this year. But the investment in infrastructure and playing squad should hopefully stand us in good stead.
The windfall will be the parachute payments.... depending on how players wages are managed, and how successful player trading is next season. |
The windfall is the cash received and the opportunity to invest in the squad far quicker than they would have expected, nothing to do with turning a profit. | | | |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:48 - Jan 26 with 2996 views | Mark |
I think they will understand that most promoted teams go back down, all three did last season and all three probably will this season. We are developing the club in the longer term and I think there will be a greater expectation that we stay up if we get promoted next season. I am sure the signings and contracts were made with the understanding that relegation this season is probable. |  | | |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:48 - Jan 26 with 2992 views | homer_123 |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:03 - Jan 26 by Marshalls_Mullet |
I think if we go down with a whimper, the fund managers will ask questions about the transfer investments this season.
Relegation won't be a shock if we go down, but they won't be too happy if transfer values have declined overall. |
By definition of relegation the transfer values will decline, that's a given.
We certainly aren't going down with a whimper (see S'oton). |  |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:53 - Jan 26 with 2944 views | SomethingBlue |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:33 - Jan 26 by Radlett_blue |
The Arizona pension fund, which initially put up a large proportion of the Gamechanger investment in Town, won't necessarily be around for the long term. Town would have been a speculative investment, but the early success & bringing in Bright Path, who bought 40%, should provide some reassurance. It's essentially a consortium, but I think the Arizona fund are fairly passive investors. No doubt Ashton will have a plan for relegation & hopefully we will keep most of our squad & McKenna & have a good chance of bouncing straight back if we go down. |
Yep it feels like the path has been laid for a Bright Path majority ownership ultimately – which is fine as things stand, although we will need to be vigilant in examining everyone who comes onboard. | |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:56 - Jan 26 with 2903 views | Mullet |
I suspect there will be a post mortem. Ashton and then will have to point fingers and who what were the issues. So they can learn from them.
They’ll then have to decide if Danny Rohl is the man they want or not and how they spend the Delap and Leif money. |  |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:56 - Jan 26 with 2903 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:48 - Jan 26 by homer_123 |
By definition of relegation the transfer values will decline, that's a given.
We certainly aren't going down with a whimper (see S'oton). |
Yes, but the strategy is investing in young players with a potential uplift.
So we would want to see an uplift in some, to balance the decline in others. | |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:57 - Jan 26 with 2887 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:36 - Jan 26 by bsw72 |
The windfall is the cash received and the opportunity to invest in the squad far quicker than they would have expected, nothing to do with turning a profit. |
As I said. Investment in infrastructure and the playing squad. | |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:57 - Jan 26 with 2881 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:27 - Jan 26 by badadski |
I am not privy to what goes on in the boardroom but this squad looks like it was banded together to develop in the long run, it may keep us up, it might not, it will be close, we will lose a couple of players for big money but the others will stay and can form the same bond and ethics to last years squad for a greater chance to be promoted again and to have a stronger chance of staying in the premier league. We are not a million miles away from competing most games, not expecting anything from the billion pound budget teams but aiming to be a new Brighton, forest or Bournemouth in a few more seasons of picking players with higher ceilings and developing them which is what McKenna does. |
Hopefully. | |
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| How will our investors react if we go down? on 11:04 - Jan 26 with 2814 views | _clive_baker_ |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 10:36 - Jan 26 by bsw72 |
The windfall is the cash received and the opportunity to invest in the squad far quicker than they would have expected, nothing to do with turning a profit. |
Agreed, profit is pretty immaterial I would think (although there might be some this season, will be interesting to see).
As you say the windfall is the significant increase in the net book value of the club, largely an increase in assets by way of players. In the space of a short few years we’ve gone from individual players with perhaps a value of £1m, to players with many, many multiples of that. Those acquisitions have been funded by PL revenues and future guaranteed parachute inflows. The future value of the club that they realise if / when they decide to sell will to a large degree be underpinned by that net book value and balance sheet health rather than profitability. That, and the security of future revenues. That’s a bit of scale, we’ve moved ourselves up it but it will significantly increase by demonstrating we can stay in the premier league and establish there.
As others have said, the return on our signings will be of primary focus. Now we’re spending £15m - £20m on these guys they have to hold their value, hence spending on young British players with potential upside. They won’t all work out, but in aggregate they’ll be expecting the total to deliver a positive return. It probably is right now, but Davis & Delap will be doing a lot of the heavy lifting in that respect. Arguably Clarke, Ogbene, Muric, maybe Szmodics due to his age we would do well to recoup what we’ve spent. But that’s fine, they won’t all, it has to be a balance between the book value and also getting us closer to premier league stabilisation and the here and now.
I think our recruitment is smart. Almost feels to me like they’ve said ‘what’s the best chance of us being in year 2 or 3 of consecutive PL football in 2030’. If we stay up this season it’s a massive, massive bonus and I’d expect us to go big again in the summer. If we don’t we’re still on the right track. |  | | |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 12:06 - Jan 26 with 2622 views | NeverSayDie |
ORG paid £40 million for the club and obviously invested a fair bit on top of that quite quickly. However, they deleveraged 40% of their shares back in March 2024 to Bright Path for £105 million, I really can’t be bothered to go back through a ton of numbers, but it’s highly likely that the sale value represented the majority, if not all, of the investment they had made in the club to that point. That being the case, ORG have recovered their initial investment and seemingly Bright Path came on board solely to provide investment to the club, so ORG effectively are now at zero risk and Bright Path quite possibly recover a large part of their initial investment from Premier League pay outs for promotion and the subsequent payments for survival, or parachute money upon relegation. From an investors point of view, I’d imagine they are all very pleased financially currently and have minimal risk, plus we have some very saleable assets to pump more cash into the coffers. |  | | |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 14:10 - Jan 26 with 2356 views | Guthrum |
| How will our investors react if we go down? on 12:06 - Jan 26 by NeverSayDie |
ORG paid £40 million for the club and obviously invested a fair bit on top of that quite quickly. However, they deleveraged 40% of their shares back in March 2024 to Bright Path for £105 million, I really can’t be bothered to go back through a ton of numbers, but it’s highly likely that the sale value represented the majority, if not all, of the investment they had made in the club to that point. That being the case, ORG have recovered their initial investment and seemingly Bright Path came on board solely to provide investment to the club, so ORG effectively are now at zero risk and Bright Path quite possibly recover a large part of their initial investment from Premier League pay outs for promotion and the subsequent payments for survival, or parachute money upon relegation. From an investors point of view, I’d imagine they are all very pleased financially currently and have minimal risk, plus we have some very saleable assets to pump more cash into the coffers. |
Except that, from what I read at the time, ORG didn't sell their shares to Bright Path. They issued new shares, diluting existing investors' holdings (including their own), in order to sell that proportion of the club to BP.
That would, however, imply that their remaining shares are worth at least £130m, so perhaps three times what they are said to have originally paid (not counting further injections). | |
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