| Owners had enough? on 15:00 - Jul 9 with 1759 views | tonybied |
| Owners had enough? on 14:49 - Jul 9 by nrb1985 |
No because if we'd stayed in the PL that valuation probably looks closer to £500m. |
Indeed, it would've been higher if we'd survived...but they would've known that it was going to be a tough challenge to manage that and the best potential profit would've been to sell at that point. Surely our value was higher after promotion? The risk of failure of survival was probably higher than the risk of failure to get re-promoted is now. |  | |  |
| Owners had enough? on 15:01 - Jul 9 with 1735 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Owners had enough? on 13:14 - Jul 9 by portmanking |
Ay karamba... it looks like there's definitely something to this.
EDIT: £100m+ in player sales?? £70m remaining in sales this summer then?! Omari and.... Leif?!
Looks like it's Three Lions/ORG looking to sell up. [Post edited 9 Jul 13:23]
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It doesn't read like a professional investment teaser to me. Not one that would find its way to serious PE or VC's. There's a lot of Brett Johnson's voice in this and platitude. I'd also expect numbers to be quoted in USD given they're based out there and investors are likely international.
"elite CEO and coaching staff" - by what measure?
"#1 club in Europe in player value creation" - highly subjective and unsubstantiated. Referencing Transfermarkt feels like its ripped off a recent Mark Ashton interview. Much of it does tbh. I guess you could argue MA referenced it in an interview as it was front of mind off the back of work pertaining to this if its legit, but more likely its bobbins.
"Significantly positive EBITDA" - put a number on it, or at least a range.
"Latest and greatest investment opportunity"
"A £1bn valuation in by" - Doesn't make sense grammatically.
"Please let us know if you're interested and we'll connect you to the club" - Not likely. If they're brokering the deal why wouldn't they share the NDA and manage the DD process?
"£56m in parachute payments this summer" - doesn't read professionally, and they aren't paid in a lump, they're distributed throughout the season.
"£100m+ in player sales" - highly unlikely
Its not unthinkable that there's truth to it, but a lot of red flags there for me, not least the source. |  | | |
| Owners had enough? on 15:09 - Jul 9 with 1613 views | nrb1985 |
| Owners had enough? on 15:00 - Jul 9 by tonybied |
Indeed, it would've been higher if we'd survived...but they would've known that it was going to be a tough challenge to manage that and the best potential profit would've been to sell at that point. Surely our value was higher after promotion? The risk of failure of survival was probably higher than the risk of failure to get re-promoted is now. |
Their upside though was much bigger than their downside - downside cushioned by parachute payments, upside theoretically unlimited had we survived.
There also probably wasn't time to find a buyer between May and August even if they wanted to, so an equity raise via Brightpath made sense. [Post edited 9 Jul 15:12]
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| Owners had enough? on 15:10 - Jul 9 with 1587 views | nrb1985 |
| Owners had enough? on 15:01 - Jul 9 by _clive_baker_ |
It doesn't read like a professional investment teaser to me. Not one that would find its way to serious PE or VC's. There's a lot of Brett Johnson's voice in this and platitude. I'd also expect numbers to be quoted in USD given they're based out there and investors are likely international.
"elite CEO and coaching staff" - by what measure?
"#1 club in Europe in player value creation" - highly subjective and unsubstantiated. Referencing Transfermarkt feels like its ripped off a recent Mark Ashton interview. Much of it does tbh. I guess you could argue MA referenced it in an interview as it was front of mind off the back of work pertaining to this if its legit, but more likely its bobbins.
"Significantly positive EBITDA" - put a number on it, or at least a range.
"Latest and greatest investment opportunity"
"A £1bn valuation in by" - Doesn't make sense grammatically.
"Please let us know if you're interested and we'll connect you to the club" - Not likely. If they're brokering the deal why wouldn't they share the NDA and manage the DD process?
"£56m in parachute payments this summer" - doesn't read professionally, and they aren't paid in a lump, they're distributed throughout the season.
"£100m+ in player sales" - highly unlikely
Its not unthinkable that there's truth to it, but a lot of red flags there for me, not least the source. |
I said in another thread too that a 2/20 fee structure doesn't make sense if you're buying the shares directly. They're not investing in the fund.
Lots of red flags as you say. | | | |
| Owners had enough? on 15:16 - Jul 9 with 1506 views | Marshalls_Mullet |
| Owners had enough? on 14:49 - Jul 9 by nrb1985 |
No because if we'd stayed in the PL that valuation probably looks closer to £500m. |
Football Club valuations seem like a bit of a ponzi scheme to me at the moment!!
The profits are miniscule, and everyone is just betting on that next sale. |  |
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| Owners had enough? on 15:21 - Jul 9 with 1457 views | Kieran_Knows |
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| Owners had enough? on 15:22 - Jul 9 with 1434 views | itfcjoe |
| Owners had enough? on 15:10 - Jul 9 by nrb1985 |
I said in another thread too that a 2/20 fee structure doesn't make sense if you're buying the shares directly. They're not investing in the fund.
Lots of red flags as you say. |
EADT have run with it with Stuart Watson doing an article, fact he's put his name to it suggests they have verified that the email is real at the very least as is a proper journalist |  |
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| Owners had enough? on 15:23 - Jul 9 with 1416 views | Matt_Netherlands |
Here we go then…..
Screw talking about transfer targets or managerial replacements…. Who do we want as our owners?! |  | | |
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| Owners had enough? on 15:24 - Jul 9 with 1389 views | DanTheMan |
Well there we have it.
We're nothing if not ambitious I guess. |  |
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| Owners had enough? on 15:25 - Jul 9 with 1369 views | Freddies_Ears |
It looks like a fairly simple equity increase to me, along the lines of when Brightpath bought in, albeit this time with the lure of a controlling stake.
It would be a fabulous development, if it happens. I suspect it will. | | | |
| Owners had enough? on 15:29 - Jul 9 with 1250 views | _clive_baker_ |
Watson's on it, must've been the earlier thread getting them all in a tizz about breaking some news.
Surprised TBH, its not a great teaser deck IMO. The only bit I thought was too coincidental was referencing the squad value from Transfermarkt as Ashton peddled the same thing in a recent interview, must've been front of mind off the back of conversations that have fed in to this.
Up to £100m+ in player sales this summer, wonder what underpins that line. Appreciate 'up to' could be anything, but its a curious one. Maybe that's what we think we could do should we need to. | | | |
| Owners had enough? on 15:31 - Jul 9 with 1186 views | portmanking |
| Owners had enough? on 15:29 - Jul 9 by _clive_baker_ |
Watson's on it, must've been the earlier thread getting them all in a tizz about breaking some news.
Surprised TBH, its not a great teaser deck IMO. The only bit I thought was too coincidental was referencing the squad value from Transfermarkt as Ashton peddled the same thing in a recent interview, must've been front of mind off the back of conversations that have fed in to this.
Up to £100m+ in player sales this summer, wonder what underpins that line. Appreciate 'up to' could be anything, but its a curious one. Maybe that's what we think we could do should we need to. |
As others have said, it quite rightly says "up to".
Ashton has a book value of all players in the squad right now. I imagine you could get to £70m quite easily:
Omari - £35m
Leif - £20m
Woolfie - £5m
Taylor - £4m
Johnson - £5m-£7m | | | |
| Owners had enough? on 15:32 - Jul 9 with 1156 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Owners had enough? on 15:23 - Jul 9 by Matt_Netherlands |
Here we go then…..
Screw talking about transfer targets or managerial replacements…. Who do we want as our owners?! |
If you can't beat 'em...
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| Owners had enough? on 15:33 - Jul 9 with 1136 views | Matt_Netherlands |
| Owners had enough? on 15:25 - Jul 9 by Freddies_Ears |
It looks like a fairly simple equity increase to me, along the lines of when Brightpath bought in, albeit this time with the lure of a controlling stake.
It would be a fabulous development, if it happens. I suspect it will. |
I might be being dumb here….
But surely to get a controlling stake they need to buy someone else out? Especially if the email mentions a c.£175-200m investment to take a controlling stake in a club worth £375m? | | | |
| Owners had enough? on 15:33 - Jul 9 with 1127 views | Metal_Hacker |
| Owners had enough? on 15:29 - Jul 9 by _clive_baker_ |
Watson's on it, must've been the earlier thread getting them all in a tizz about breaking some news.
Surprised TBH, its not a great teaser deck IMO. The only bit I thought was too coincidental was referencing the squad value from Transfermarkt as Ashton peddled the same thing in a recent interview, must've been front of mind off the back of conversations that have fed in to this.
Up to £100m+ in player sales this summer, wonder what underpins that line. Appreciate 'up to' could be anything, but its a curious one. Maybe that's what we think we could do should we need to. |
“Up to £100m+ in player sales this summer,”
Surely that line is used just to make any potential investor’s return on their investment being perhaps nailed on
Carrot dangling innit
Well at least it’s given us something else to concentrate on other than lack of transfers , Burnley , Muric , Omari potentially being on his way out ………. |  |
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| Owners had enough? on 15:34 - Jul 9 with 1129 views | nrb1985 |
| Owners had enough? on 15:22 - Jul 9 by itfcjoe |
EADT have run with it with Stuart Watson doing an article, fact he's put his name to it suggests they have verified that the email is real at the very least as is a proper journalist |
Fair enough — it looks like it's legit. But I’ve genuinely never seen a direct transfer of ownership come with a 2 & 20 fee structure. That kind of setup will likely be off-putting to potential buyers, especially when combined with what already looks like a very punchy valuation.
If I’m not mistaken, you’re a business owner? Imagine selling a controlling stake, then charging the buyer 2% per year on the value of the shares and taking 20% of their upside if they eventually sell — it just doesn’t make sense in a straightforward equity sale.
As another poster rightly said, 2 & 20 is standard for hedge funds or private equity funds, but I’ve never seen it applied to direct share purchases. [Post edited 9 Jul 15:35]
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| Owners had enough? on 15:37 - Jul 9 with 1087 views | portmanking |
| Owners had enough? on 15:33 - Jul 9 by Matt_Netherlands |
I might be being dumb here….
But surely to get a controlling stake they need to buy someone else out? Especially if the email mentions a c.£175-200m investment to take a controlling stake in a club worth £375m? |
No, you're absolutely right.
£184m would be roughly 49% shareholding and £214m would be 56-57%.
The former scenario would probably mean ORG/PSPRS selling up and Three Lions keeping their 5%. The latter would likely mean ORG/PSPRS/Three Lions/Ed Sheeran selling to a new majority owner. | | | |
| Owners had enough? on 15:37 - Jul 9 with 1075 views | _clive_baker_ |
| Owners had enough? on 15:31 - Jul 9 by portmanking |
As others have said, it quite rightly says "up to".
Ashton has a book value of all players in the squad right now. I imagine you could get to £70m quite easily:
Omari - £35m
Leif - £20m
Woolfie - £5m
Taylor - £4m
Johnson - £5m-£7m |
Yeah not disputing that (although I would dispute a few of the specific ones you've listed).
I'd imagine Omari, O'Shea and Davis would get us close to that number when you consider Delap has already contributed 30% of it.
New owners will know the big ticket is promotion back to the PL though, I wouldn't imagine they'll buy a majority stake at a £350m valuation and compromise that with some short term asset stripping. | | | |
| Owners had enough? on 15:39 - Jul 9 with 1053 views | Chris_ITFC |
| Owners had enough? on 14:38 - Jul 9 by WestStanderLaLaLa |
Cruncher has been emailed it
I like the transfermarkt reference. The gold standard for working out squad worth. [Post edited 9 Jul 14:39]
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‘Cruncher’ hasn’t been emailed it.
He’s just copied the same screenshot, in order to fuel his standard (flawed) sense of importance. |  |
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| Owners had enough? on 15:41 - Jul 9 with 998 views | Matt_Netherlands |
| Owners had enough? on 15:39 - Jul 9 by Chris_ITFC |
‘Cruncher’ hasn’t been emailed it.
He’s just copied the same screenshot, in order to fuel his standard (flawed) sense of importance. |
“Cruncher is buying ITFC.” Pass it on…. | | | |
| Owners had enough? on 15:42 - Jul 9 with 986 views | itfcjoe |
| Owners had enough? on 15:34 - Jul 9 by nrb1985 |
Fair enough — it looks like it's legit. But I’ve genuinely never seen a direct transfer of ownership come with a 2 & 20 fee structure. That kind of setup will likely be off-putting to potential buyers, especially when combined with what already looks like a very punchy valuation.
If I’m not mistaken, you’re a business owner? Imagine selling a controlling stake, then charging the buyer 2% per year on the value of the shares and taking 20% of their upside if they eventually sell — it just doesn’t make sense in a straightforward equity sale.
As another poster rightly said, 2 & 20 is standard for hedge funds or private equity funds, but I’ve never seen it applied to direct share purchases. [Post edited 9 Jul 15:35]
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I'm way outside what I understand on this one, even spelt out like that confuses me!
My reading of it would be that things have moved on too quickly for the original owners, they came in to get us to the PL in a decent time frame to establish - we are now on the cusp of a season where promotion back to the PL is almost a necessity.
Is now the time for Bright Path to take a controlling stake? They seem to have the money for it and looking at Florida Panthers and when Marc Lasry was at Milwaukee Bucks there is the expertise to lead top organisations.
You'd imagine whatever happens next is to take us to the next level as a club, the new owners will need to be serious players whoever they are | |
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| Owners had enough? on 15:49 - Jul 9 with 860 views | MattinLondon |
| Owners had enough? on 15:22 - Jul 9 by itfcjoe |
EADT have run with it with Stuart Watson doing an article, fact he's put his name to it suggests they have verified that the email is real at the very least as is a proper journalist |
Now, I fully admit that I’m not the sharpest tool in general - especially when it comes to finances.
But a billion dollar valuation within the next five years - or aiming to be at least.
That showcases significant ambition at least - more so than Brighton who are an established PL team and valued at $800m. Or am I missing the point? |  | | |
| Owners had enough? on 15:50 - Jul 9 with 847 views | nrb1985 |
| Owners had enough? on 15:42 - Jul 9 by itfcjoe |
I'm way outside what I understand on this one, even spelt out like that confuses me!
My reading of it would be that things have moved on too quickly for the original owners, they came in to get us to the PL in a decent time frame to establish - we are now on the cusp of a season where promotion back to the PL is almost a necessity.
Is now the time for Bright Path to take a controlling stake? They seem to have the money for it and looking at Florida Panthers and when Marc Lasry was at Milwaukee Bucks there is the expertise to lead top organisations.
You'd imagine whatever happens next is to take us to the next level as a club, the new owners will need to be serious players whoever they are |
Here you go mate ;)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/two_and_twenty.asp
On Brightpath, I think that makes most sense but why then would BJ (lolz) need to take it out to the wider market etc. You can quite easily sell to Brightpath behind closed doors you'd think.
Having said that, I forgot somebody I know gave me a tiny piece of ITK knowledge on Brightpath 2 weeks ago. He's a property guru in London and also a Town fan. He said recently he was searching for a more permanent London/UK home for one of the Brightpath guys. So maybe you're right.
Certainly hope so from a continuity point of you. [Post edited 9 Jul 15:52]
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| Owners had enough? on 15:52 - Jul 9 with 800 views | southnorfolkblue |
| Owners had enough? on 13:07 - Jul 9 by gringoblue |
But what if Rihanna is installed as Tranmere's Manager? |
She’ll be the wally with a brolley… | |
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| Owners had enough? on 15:53 - Jul 9 with 777 views | tractorboy1978 |
| Owners had enough? on 15:37 - Jul 9 by _clive_baker_ |
Yeah not disputing that (although I would dispute a few of the specific ones you've listed).
I'd imagine Omari, O'Shea and Davis would get us close to that number when you consider Delap has already contributed 30% of it.
New owners will know the big ticket is promotion back to the PL though, I wouldn't imagine they'll buy a majority stake at a £350m valuation and compromise that with some short term asset stripping. |
Isn't going to happen overnight either is it? Finding new investors, due diligence etc will be a process that will take weeks/months just as it did with Bright Path previously. Certainly won't be movement on this before the transfer window closes. I see all this as very exciting personally. You can perhaps see why McKenna is so invested here and believes he build the club into a established PL one. | | | |
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