| Striker in Jan? 21:56 - Nov 22 with 2895 views | Fabianski |
My god we need a finisher in the January window - play offs at risk if we don’t sign someone who can finish these chances… is it time for another call to Carrot Rd? |  | | |  |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:32 - Nov 23 with 627 views | billlm |
We've needed a striker for a season and a half now,
Got lucky with delap he was a punt,
Wasn't a team player as the season went in so hurt the team,
Since signing Moore in the championship previously we haven't had an opportunist striker,
Big boo boo by our recruitment team,
To spend around 40 million on our wide players and not address the striker position is poor management, |  | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:59 - Nov 23 with 576 views | NthQldITFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:00 - Nov 23 by Pinewoodblue |
Explain it then . |
Here's a reasonably thorough explanation from the BBC:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cgrqd18q0rgo
Rather than me typing something out, I've posted a link to a thought out article written in an understandable way.
I think the issue really, without meaning to be rude, is that some people don't want to, or can't be bothered to read up on it before posting prejudiced and uninformed opinions. It's a lazy/Luddite view as far as I'm concerned.
(I'm sorry if that does sound rude - and I think it probably does - but I find it really frustrating.) |  |
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| Striker in Jan? on 11:00 - Nov 23 with 573 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:30 - Nov 23 by franz_tyson |
OK... so what is it... and who ( or what) enters the data? |
Did I say someone isn't involved in entering some of the data?
"... who thinks there is an individual who sits there, subjectively deciding if something was a chance..." which leads to a goal.
That is the statement that I challenged which is so wrong, and doesn't appreciate the statistical and probability analyses that is the bedrock of the tactical modelling in the modern game.
Some of the data is entered by individuals, some automatically (you need an appreciation of how much game telemetry is captured and gathered these days). There is plenty written about this if you want to research it. It's also been discussed in the forum, which has an adequate search function. If you really want to understand it, surely you're willing to do some research yourself? It's a complex subject that would not be done justice in a few sentences here, and on a lazy Sunday morning I'm not writing War and Peace for something which a few searches from the inquiring mind would uncover. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 11:10 - Nov 23 with 558 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:59 - Nov 23 by NthQldITFC |
Here's a reasonably thorough explanation from the BBC:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cgrqd18q0rgo
Rather than me typing something out, I've posted a link to a thought out article written in an understandable way.
I think the issue really, without meaning to be rude, is that some people don't want to, or can't be bothered to read up on it before posting prejudiced and uninformed opinions. It's a lazy/Luddite view as far as I'm concerned.
(I'm sorry if that does sound rude - and I think it probably does - but I find it really frustrating.) |
That's quite a good article - I'd not seen that before. One thing it doesn't mention is xGOT, which I consider are more useful metric.
Whereas xG is effectively an analysis based on what leads up to a goal chance, and what conversion is statistically achieved, xGOT analyses the quality of the shot by the player once in the position. A poor shot from the position good position will have a high xG, but low xGOT. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 11:15 - Nov 23 with 556 views | tetchris |
A new striker in January is a good call but I fear it will be too late by then. Although mathematically possible for top two finish I just can’t see it unless we go on an amazing unbeaten run. Play offs is more realistic but that’s a lottery. One of the most expensive squads in the championship but not the best, that’s the problem. Unbalanced and over exaggerated fees paid for some. Town were better in league one and championship with less money spent. Over £100 million spent on players and going backwards. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 11:35 - Nov 23 with 532 views | NthQldITFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 11:10 - Nov 23 by SuffolkPunchFC |
That's quite a good article - I'd not seen that before. One thing it doesn't mention is xGOT, which I consider are more useful metric.
Whereas xG is effectively an analysis based on what leads up to a goal chance, and what conversion is statistically achieved, xGOT analyses the quality of the shot by the player once in the position. A poor shot from the position good position will have a high xG, but low xGOT. |
So xG gives you an approximation for 'chance creation' and xGOT gives you an approximation for 'finishing ability' and a function of the product of the two should give you an approximation of your actual real world goals scored (F). | |
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| Striker in Jan? on 11:49 - Nov 23 with 511 views | Herbivore |
| Striker in Jan? on 11:15 - Nov 23 by tetchris |
A new striker in January is a good call but I fear it will be too late by then. Although mathematically possible for top two finish I just can’t see it unless we go on an amazing unbeaten run. Play offs is more realistic but that’s a lottery. One of the most expensive squads in the championship but not the best, that’s the problem. Unbalanced and over exaggerated fees paid for some. Town were better in league one and championship with less money spent. Over £100 million spent on players and going backwards. |
If we win our game in hand we'll be three points off second place with a superior goal difference. Since the start of September we're second in the form table despite having played a game less than everyone (other than Blackburn). To describe automatics as "mathematically possible" and needing "an amazing unbeaten run" to get there is ridiculous. By all means be frustrated that we aren't doing as well as we should be with the squad we've assembled, but don't make stuff up. |  |
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| Striker in Jan? on 12:24 - Nov 23 with 471 views | cressi |
Think our issues lay deeper the a number 9
Nobody has worked as worked as a ten Nuñez better than Akpom or szmodics
. We look like a team of strangers at times christ knows what they do in training. | | | |
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| Striker in Jan? on 12:28 - Nov 23 with 463 views | TresBonne |
Thing is, the striker isn't the issue. Our chances don't seem to fall to the striker in our system, more to the no10 and the wingers. I can't recall Azon nor Hirst really having a good chance yesterday.
The attacking players around the striker need to start converting, Chaplin, Broadhead, Burns, Omari would all routinely get goals every game for us in the promotion season. This season we have Akpom, Walle, McAteer, Szmodics who have all not scored yet. That is pretty poor. |  | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 12:54 - Nov 23 with 438 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:59 - Nov 23 by NthQldITFC |
Here's a reasonably thorough explanation from the BBC:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cgrqd18q0rgo
Rather than me typing something out, I've posted a link to a thought out article written in an understandable way.
I think the issue really, without meaning to be rude, is that some people don't want to, or can't be bothered to read up on it before posting prejudiced and uninformed opinions. It's a lazy/Luddite view as far as I'm concerned.
(I'm sorry if that does sound rude - and I think it probably does - but I find it really frustrating.) |
Since I do understand it, although clearly many still don’t, I didn’t regard your comment as rude.
Hopefully some will click on your link. |  |
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| Striker in Jan? on 12:55 - Nov 23 with 435 views | Herbivore |
| Striker in Jan? on 12:28 - Nov 23 by TresBonne |
Thing is, the striker isn't the issue. Our chances don't seem to fall to the striker in our system, more to the no10 and the wingers. I can't recall Azon nor Hirst really having a good chance yesterday.
The attacking players around the striker need to start converting, Chaplin, Broadhead, Burns, Omari would all routinely get goals every game for us in the promotion season. This season we have Akpom, Walle, McAteer, Szmodics who have all not scored yet. That is pretty poor. |
Azon and Hirst have both missed a lot of good chances this season to be fair. Not yesterday but certainly in other games. You're right that other attacking players also aren't firing and we need them to be. Remarkably despite not firing in front of goal we're the third highest scorers in the division. | |
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| Striker in Jan? on 12:58 - Nov 23 with 422 views | chicoazul |
| Striker in Jan? on 06:27 - Nov 23 by franz_tyson |
Exactly. I just remember the McAteer chance.
People take xg data as gospel, but no one really knows what it is, who creates it, how accurate it is.
We might have to think of ways to create chances other than bringing in a new 10 or 9.
Improve our corners/ free kicks. Shooting from distance. Improve crossing ( beating the first defender).
Aren't we a side that is supposed to be well coached? [Post edited 23 Nov 7:05]
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It certainly seems YOU don’t know what it is. |  |
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| Striker in Jan? on 12:59 - Nov 23 with 428 views | MrPotatoHead |
| Striker in Jan? on 07:33 - Nov 23 by NthQldITFC |
Although, to be fair, 'the data' is the best representation of the reality, rather than a woolly phrase like 'fook all'.
These three things are true:
1. We have the second highest xG in the Championship - we are creating a lot of chances.
2. Our finishing has been poor to middling.
3. We are a top Championship squad and we all, rightly, feel we should be scoring more goals.
Treating 'data' as some kind of nasty thing, a dark art, rather than one tool to aid understanding, is self-defeating.
(tbf, I've gone in a bit hard on your not too unreasonable post and used it as a target for much worse 'anti-data' posts I've read elsewhere, but I get the feeling you won't mind too much.) |
The point was around a new striker, presumably pointing to number 9 being the crux of the issue and implying they’re missing lots of chances. I just don’t think that’s the case, we might well be creating chances but I don’t think the fault lies with the number 9’s. If anything they’ve been 2 players who have looked busier and created the conditions for others. We haven’t landed on a 10 yet and we’ve spent £30m on the right and haven’t really had much from that so far.
I just think it’s very short sighted to think a new ‘striker’ is the answer to our problems. They’re not missing sitters are they? |  | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 14:30 - Nov 23 with 370 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Striker in Jan? on 06:03 - Nov 23 by ernie |
Rubbish- where were all the clear cut chances we created yesterday? |
Wrexham's keeper made 8 saves (which doesn't even include great chances such as Egeli's that went just over, Akpom's that was blocked by a defencer and McAteer's horrendous miss).
Your rampant negativity literally blinds you to what's happening right in front of you. |  |
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| Striker in Jan? on 15:03 - Nov 23 with 337 views | MrPotatoHead |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:59 - Nov 23 by NthQldITFC |
Here's a reasonably thorough explanation from the BBC:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cgrqd18q0rgo
Rather than me typing something out, I've posted a link to a thought out article written in an understandable way.
I think the issue really, without meaning to be rude, is that some people don't want to, or can't be bothered to read up on it before posting prejudiced and uninformed opinions. It's a lazy/Luddite view as far as I'm concerned.
(I'm sorry if that does sound rude - and I think it probably does - but I find it really frustrating.) |
I don’t think my point was made very clearly. I wasn’t dismissing the use of stats, but they need to be used in context. To on the one hand claim we’re creating more than our fair share of chances and conclude we need a new forward is short sighted. You could argue our number 9 is playing the part in that creation, that’s primarily what they’re there for in a McKenna system. It’s not necessarily the case that they’re the ones not finishing their dinner. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 15:10 - Nov 23 with 317 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Striker in Jan? on 10:59 - Nov 23 by NthQldITFC |
Here's a reasonably thorough explanation from the BBC:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cgrqd18q0rgo
Rather than me typing something out, I've posted a link to a thought out article written in an understandable way.
I think the issue really, without meaning to be rude, is that some people don't want to, or can't be bothered to read up on it before posting prejudiced and uninformed opinions. It's a lazy/Luddite view as far as I'm concerned.
(I'm sorry if that does sound rude - and I think it probably does - but I find it really frustrating.) |
A slightly more thorough explanation here. https://the-footballanalyst.com/expected-goals-xg-football-statistics-explained/
I would suggest there is still someone entering the data but the idea that person is randomly assigning a value based on their gut feeling is clearly wrong. There is plenty of historic data leading to the values assigned. How accurate are those entering the data is a fair question but I suspect they are generally well trained in it. Another question would be how frequently the data set supporting the analysis is updated but as long as the same data set is being used that is probably less important. |  |
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| Striker in Jan? on 15:29 - Nov 23 with 284 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Striker in Jan? on 15:10 - Nov 23 by Nthsuffolkblue |
A slightly more thorough explanation here. https://the-footballanalyst.com/expected-goals-xg-football-statistics-explained/
I would suggest there is still someone entering the data but the idea that person is randomly assigning a value based on their gut feeling is clearly wrong. There is plenty of historic data leading to the values assigned. How accurate are those entering the data is a fair question but I suspect they are generally well trained in it. Another question would be how frequently the data set supporting the analysis is updated but as long as the same data set is being used that is probably less important. |
The accuracy of the ones entering the data is of little influence, and would only be degraded by any transcription errors during the data entry - of which there will be minimal use.
As I mentioned earlier, there is a lot of telemetry collected during games. Hudl StatBomb for example uses AI computer vision tracking technology to create data feeds for the analysis. This would be imported into the models rather than transcribed.
GPS is also used for tracking on field positioning these days. Surely you've seen the big lump on the player's back, under their shirts (and when they remove their shirts you'll see the staps keeping these in place). There are numerous automated technologies to capture and analyse the action these days - with some manual checkpoints to validate and scrub the data produced.
Football data science is a huge business these days, which is why it amused me that some posters thought an individual was watching the action, and putting a manual xG value against every attempted shot  | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 16:20 - Nov 23 with 232 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Striker in Jan? on 15:29 - Nov 23 by SuffolkPunchFC |
The accuracy of the ones entering the data is of little influence, and would only be degraded by any transcription errors during the data entry - of which there will be minimal use.
As I mentioned earlier, there is a lot of telemetry collected during games. Hudl StatBomb for example uses AI computer vision tracking technology to create data feeds for the analysis. This would be imported into the models rather than transcribed.
GPS is also used for tracking on field positioning these days. Surely you've seen the big lump on the player's back, under their shirts (and when they remove their shirts you'll see the staps keeping these in place). There are numerous automated technologies to capture and analyse the action these days - with some manual checkpoints to validate and scrub the data produced.
Football data science is a huge business these days, which is why it amused me that some posters thought an individual was watching the action, and putting a manual xG value against every attempted shot |
I must admit I assumed the data packs were used within the clubs rather than fed into Opta/public data, etc. I guess there is either a financial incentive from Opta (or whoever manages the data) or it is stipulated that all clubs have to participate.
That said, the power of AI to analyse the data from footage alone would leave little or no need for data input as you suggest. AI does have potential for error, though (although it is often obvious when it does error). | |
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| Striker in Jan? on 16:36 - Nov 23 with 224 views | Tractor_Boy333 |
I think we can all see we need a reliable finisher but who? Can’t see any Championship player letting us take their strike let alone Norwich. I wonder if Akpom could play up top but his confidence seems very low at the moment. It’s easy to say we need a striker but finding someone is a lot harder. They have to hit the ground running and we’ll probably have to pay a big fee unless we can get a decent loan player. | | | |
| Striker in Jan? on 16:38 - Nov 23 with 218 views | The_Flashing_Smile |
| Striker in Jan? on 16:36 - Nov 23 by Tractor_Boy333 |
I think we can all see we need a reliable finisher but who? Can’t see any Championship player letting us take their strike let alone Norwich. I wonder if Akpom could play up top but his confidence seems very low at the moment. It’s easy to say we need a striker but finding someone is a lot harder. They have to hit the ground running and we’ll probably have to pay a big fee unless we can get a decent loan player. |
I'd have thought a Prem loan would be doable in Jan. | |
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| Striker in Jan? on 16:42 - Nov 23 with 200 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Striker in Jan? on 16:38 - Nov 23 by The_Flashing_Smile |
I'd have thought a Prem loan would be doable in Jan. |
Championship strikers will move for the right money. Premier loans will happen too but finding the right player that is available is the tricky part. | |
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