| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel 05:18 - Mar 1 with 3553 views | ElderGrizzly |
Says it all
[Post edited 1 Mar 5:21]
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 06:07 - Mar 1 with 2498 views | Kropotkin123 |
It's more complex than just following the Saudis. The Saudis were against attacking Iran, but changed their position due to Trump and then lobbied him to match his threats, rather than roll them back. That's why the mention weeks, not that they've been lobbying for years.
Regieme change in Iran should see the end of decades of proxy wars, a loss of funding for militant groups in the middle east, and lessen the chances of nuclear proliferation. I support this and hope the Iranian people can overthrow the regeme with the help of these strikes. |  |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 08:22 - Mar 1 with 2304 views | bsw72 |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 06:07 - Mar 1 by Kropotkin123 |
It's more complex than just following the Saudis. The Saudis were against attacking Iran, but changed their position due to Trump and then lobbied him to match his threats, rather than roll them back. That's why the mention weeks, not that they've been lobbying for years.
Regieme change in Iran should see the end of decades of proxy wars, a loss of funding for militant groups in the middle east, and lessen the chances of nuclear proliferation. I support this and hope the Iranian people can overthrow the regeme with the help of these strikes. |
To the majority of us who have grown up in Western democracies it is incredibly difficult to comprehend the complexity of how the Middle East has evolved. We consume news in our context, and we instinctively search for a villain and a victim because that is the narrative our media and culture has conditioned us to. The Middle East refuses that approach, it just doesn’t work as black and white, or even shades of grey, it’s a kaleidoscope of colours.
I managed teams (remotely) in the region for nearly a decade but spent time in UAE, Saudi, Oman and Bahrain and what I learned is that I should never discuss regional politics with the locals as it was viewed so differently internally from how it was reported in the UK.
What is unfolding right now is the product of decades of colonial border-drawing, sectarian division, proxy warfare, and great power competition. Iran’s sponsorship of terror through Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis is real and has caused immeasurable suffering. So too is the suffering of Iranian citizens, tens of thousands of whom were killed by their own government for protesting just weeks ago.
Should be noted that experts, analysts and historians with decades of regional expertise still disagree on questions of cause, responsibility and what an enduring resolution might look like. The current situation is compounded by the individuals involved with Trump and Netanyahu as very divisive figures as the latest aggressors with the likes of the Iranian leadership on the other, with a mix of religious and crown figures spread across the region all with questionable human rights and political stances.
Those of us who have not lived within this region, who have not felt its history pr lived it daily, are simply not well positioned to judge. And even for those who have, this is not a simple binary position of one side being right and the other wrong all neatly divided and will only be fully understood and judged by history. |  | | |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 08:45 - Mar 1 with 2248 views | Swansea_Blue |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 06:07 - Mar 1 by Kropotkin123 |
It's more complex than just following the Saudis. The Saudis were against attacking Iran, but changed their position due to Trump and then lobbied him to match his threats, rather than roll them back. That's why the mention weeks, not that they've been lobbying for years.
Regieme change in Iran should see the end of decades of proxy wars, a loss of funding for militant groups in the middle east, and lessen the chances of nuclear proliferation. I support this and hope the Iranian people can overthrow the regeme with the help of these strikes. |
“ Regieme change in Iran should see the end of decades of proxy wars, a loss of funding for militant groups in the middle east, and lessen the chances of nuclear proliferation.”
I hope you’re right but would be amazed if that comes to pass. Normally action like this further destabilises regions. |  |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 10:23 - Mar 1 with 2116 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 06:07 - Mar 1 by Kropotkin123 |
It's more complex than just following the Saudis. The Saudis were against attacking Iran, but changed their position due to Trump and then lobbied him to match his threats, rather than roll them back. That's why the mention weeks, not that they've been lobbying for years.
Regieme change in Iran should see the end of decades of proxy wars, a loss of funding for militant groups in the middle east, and lessen the chances of nuclear proliferation. I support this and hope the Iranian people can overthrow the regeme with the help of these strikes. |
"Regieme change in Iran should see the end of decades of proxy wars, a loss of funding for militant groups in the middle east, and lessen the chances of nuclear proliferation."
I don't disagree with this as being desirable however I will be extremely surprised if a lot more innocent blood isn't spilled in the power vacuum beforehand. Also let's not pretend that this isn't being orchestrated by those in power that know exactly which side their bread is buttered and care not a jot about those that create their wealth.
Edit....ultimately this is another power play by Nationalist leaders in an ongoing resource war and very much in parallel with Putin/Ukraine. [Post edited 1 Mar 10:27]
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 10:35 - Mar 1 with 2091 views | DJR |
Whilst Trump talked about regime change (which would be ideal), that is not as easy as might be thought given the existence of the Revolutionary Guard, the numbers that went on to the street to mourn the death, and no obvious successor figure.
It is also for consideration as to how long Trump will remain interested in this if the main goal, the severe weakening if not destruction of Iran's military capacity, is achieved. And the reaction of his base to the conflict might well also influence him to end it early.
I also got the impression from what he said that if regime change didn't take place he would regard it as the fault of the Iranian people. [Post edited 1 Mar 12:11]
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 10:46 - Mar 1 with 2022 views | Guthrum |
It's the fine distinction between causes and triggers.
The USA has been looking to attack Iran for much of the last 47 years. Entirely on their own account - geopolitical balance, threats and interference, loss of an ally in 1979, humiliation over hostages and the failed rescue, revenge for the Beirut embassy and barracks bombings of the early 1980s. That is the cause.
Netanyahu and bin Salman's lobbying were merely the trigger which set rolling the ball already poised.
Similar to how the assassination in Sarajevo was the trigger for the First World War, but not its cause. |  |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 10:46 - Mar 1 with 2021 views | Swansea_Blue |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 10:35 - Mar 1 by DJR |
Whilst Trump talked about regime change (which would be ideal), that is not as easy as might be thought given the existence of the Revolutionary Guard, the numbers that went on to the street to mourn the death, and no obvious successor figure.
It is also for consideration as to how long Trump will remain interested in this if the main goal, the severe weakening if not destruction of Iran's military capacity, is achieved. And the reaction of his base to the conflict might well also influence him to end it early.
I also got the impression from what he said that if regime change didn't take place he would regard it as the fault of the Iranian people. [Post edited 1 Mar 12:11]
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FWIW, Reuters reported this on the CIA’s thoughts about succession, but they seem rather vague!
https://www.reuters.com/world/
It may be paywalled, but the gist is:
“WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - In the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he could be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), two sources briefed on the intelligence said.”
“The IRGC is an elite military force whose purpose is to protect Shi'ite Muslim clerical rule in Iran.
The intelligence agency reports did not conclude any scenario with certainty, said the sources, ”
[Post edited 1 Mar 10:48]
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 10:54 - Mar 1 with 1975 views | Guthrum |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 10:35 - Mar 1 by DJR |
Whilst Trump talked about regime change (which would be ideal), that is not as easy as might be thought given the existence of the Revolutionary Guard, the numbers that went on to the street to mourn the death, and no obvious successor figure.
It is also for consideration as to how long Trump will remain interested in this if the main goal, the severe weakening if not destruction of Iran's military capacity, is achieved. And the reaction of his base to the conflict might well also influence him to end it early.
I also got the impression from what he said that if regime change didn't take place he would regard it as the fault of the Iranian people. [Post edited 1 Mar 12:11]
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The IRGC is the crucial factor. They are the guardians of the regime, prepared to defend it (and their own position) with extreme ruthlessness. Plus, along with a network of associated organisations, they are deeply embedded in Iranian society.
Unless they are put out of action - very unlikely to happen through bombing alone - or swap sides (as some of the Eastern European security apparatus did in 1989) the possibility of regime change is low, of a peaceful one even less. | |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 11:02 - Mar 1 with 1925 views | Pinewoodblue |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 10:35 - Mar 1 by DJR |
Whilst Trump talked about regime change (which would be ideal), that is not as easy as might be thought given the existence of the Revolutionary Guard, the numbers that went on to the street to mourn the death, and no obvious successor figure.
It is also for consideration as to how long Trump will remain interested in this if the main goal, the severe weakening if not destruction of Iran's military capacity, is achieved. And the reaction of his base to the conflict might well also influence him to end it early.
I also got the impression from what he said that if regime change didn't take place he would regard it as the fault of the Iranian people. [Post edited 1 Mar 12:11]
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He wasn’t just addressing Persians when he encouraged people to rise up, but also the minorities such as Kurds, Azeris etc. internal conflict is a real risk.
There is no guarantee the actions of Israel and US will bring about a united Iran. Lessons clearly have not been learnt from Libya.
Trump, by backing Israel’s illegal action , risks being charged with War crimes.
He needs to quickly find a way out of the corner he has willingly penned himself in. |  |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 11:11 - Mar 1 with 1854 views | GlasgowBlue |
Multiple things can be true at the same time.
The attack on Iran may be a distraction from the Epstein files, poor midterm polling, war crimes committed by Netanyahu.
And the removal of the Islamic Republic of Iran could herald in a new era of peace middle east with the biggest sponsor of terrorism in the region ended and freedom for the people who have suffered decades of murderous oppression.
People can criticize the former at the same time as hoping for the later. |  |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 11:19 - Mar 1 with 1815 views | lowhouseblue |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 11:11 - Mar 1 by GlasgowBlue |
Multiple things can be true at the same time.
The attack on Iran may be a distraction from the Epstein files, poor midterm polling, war crimes committed by Netanyahu.
And the removal of the Islamic Republic of Iran could herald in a new era of peace middle east with the biggest sponsor of terrorism in the region ended and freedom for the people who have suffered decades of murderous oppression.
People can criticize the former at the same time as hoping for the later. |
i'm very much hoping for the latter. but it depends on the air strikes now targeting and demolishing the irgc. i'm just not convinced that can really be done from the air and in a week (which is the length of time that trump will focus on this). |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 11:24 - Mar 1 with 1793 views | GlasgowBlue |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 11:19 - Mar 1 by lowhouseblue |
i'm very much hoping for the latter. but it depends on the air strikes now targeting and demolishing the irgc. i'm just not convinced that can really be done from the air and in a week (which is the length of time that trump will focus on this). |
As I understand it there are 4 levels of succession for every position in the government and Islamic Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, so it' not going to be a quick war.
A lot depends in the ordinary Iranians. | |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 12:06 - Mar 1 with 1635 views | NthQldITFC |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 11:24 - Mar 1 by GlasgowBlue |
As I understand it there are 4 levels of succession for every position in the government and Islamic Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, so it' not going to be a quick war.
A lot depends in the ordinary Iranians. |
Sounding unlikely isn't it, without boots on the ground which - unless Tr*mp and Yahoo are completely different animals to what the whole of the world thinks they are - ain't gonna happen. |  |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 12:16 - Mar 1 with 1560 views | Pendejo |
So we're into part 2 of Dubbya's "Axis of Evil"
Part 1 Iraq
How did that go?
Once Part 2 is underway should "rocket man" be nervous?
Unlikely no natural resources to exploit?
God bless America! |  |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 12:30 - Mar 1 with 1519 views | pointofblue |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 12:16 - Mar 1 by Pendejo |
So we're into part 2 of Dubbya's "Axis of Evil"
Part 1 Iraq
How did that go?
Once Part 2 is underway should "rocket man" be nervous?
Unlikely no natural resources to exploit?
God bless America! |
Not only that but China is a much better position to respond to American aggression over North Korea than Russia/Ukraine, and Korea themselves have nuclear weapons which they could launch at any sign of a threat.
Thinking about it, it suits Trump in some ways to keep the war in Ukraine going. |  |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 12:58 - Mar 1 with 1440 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 12:06 - Mar 1 by NthQldITFC |
Sounding unlikely isn't it, without boots on the ground which - unless Tr*mp and Yahoo are completely different animals to what the whole of the world thinks they are - ain't gonna happen. |
In a statement posted to social media, the Israel Defense Forces said...
“Over the past day, the Israeli Air Force conducted large-scale strikes in order to establish aerial superiority and to pave the path to Tehran.” | |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 13:05 - Mar 1 with 1424 views | ElderGrizzly |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 08:22 - Mar 1 by bsw72 |
To the majority of us who have grown up in Western democracies it is incredibly difficult to comprehend the complexity of how the Middle East has evolved. We consume news in our context, and we instinctively search for a villain and a victim because that is the narrative our media and culture has conditioned us to. The Middle East refuses that approach, it just doesn’t work as black and white, or even shades of grey, it’s a kaleidoscope of colours.
I managed teams (remotely) in the region for nearly a decade but spent time in UAE, Saudi, Oman and Bahrain and what I learned is that I should never discuss regional politics with the locals as it was viewed so differently internally from how it was reported in the UK.
What is unfolding right now is the product of decades of colonial border-drawing, sectarian division, proxy warfare, and great power competition. Iran’s sponsorship of terror through Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis is real and has caused immeasurable suffering. So too is the suffering of Iranian citizens, tens of thousands of whom were killed by their own government for protesting just weeks ago.
Should be noted that experts, analysts and historians with decades of regional expertise still disagree on questions of cause, responsibility and what an enduring resolution might look like. The current situation is compounded by the individuals involved with Trump and Netanyahu as very divisive figures as the latest aggressors with the likes of the Iranian leadership on the other, with a mix of religious and crown figures spread across the region all with questionable human rights and political stances.
Those of us who have not lived within this region, who have not felt its history pr lived it daily, are simply not well positioned to judge. And even for those who have, this is not a simple binary position of one side being right and the other wrong all neatly divided and will only be fully understood and judged by history. |
I agree. I lived in Saudi, Qatar and UAE on and off for the best part of 8 years
It’s incredibly complex, but also sometimes also as simple as it looks. | | | |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 13:07 - Mar 1 with 1413 views | ElderGrizzly |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 11:24 - Mar 1 by GlasgowBlue |
As I understand it there are 4 levels of succession for every position in the government and Islamic Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, so it' not going to be a quick war.
A lot depends in the ordinary Iranians. |
Looks like his successor is going to be his son.
Who is even more ‘radical’ than his father. | | | |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 13:25 - Mar 1 with 1347 views | ElderGrizzly |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 12:58 - Mar 1 by BanksterDebtSlave |
In a statement posted to social media, the Israel Defense Forces said...
“Over the past day, the Israeli Air Force conducted large-scale strikes in order to establish aerial superiority and to pave the path to Tehran.” |
All while their war criminal leader is ‘hiding’ in Germany | | | |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 13:31 - Mar 1 with 1315 views | pointofblue |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 13:25 - Mar 1 by ElderGrizzly |
All while their war criminal leader is ‘hiding’ in Germany |
Isn't he wanted by The Hague? No reason the Germans couldn't arrest him. Though, of all nations who would carry it out... | |
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 14:01 - Mar 1 with 1206 views | DJR |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 13:05 - Mar 1 by ElderGrizzly |
I agree. I lived in Saudi, Qatar and UAE on and off for the best part of 8 years
It’s incredibly complex, but also sometimes also as simple as it looks. |
There's also the Sunni-Shiite divide which plays out with Iran, Iraq and Bahrain being majority Shiite countries and Hezbollah and the Houthis being Shiite, and with the rest of the Gulf states being Sunni majority and Sunni led.
The latter tend to support and be supported by the West, and the same is true of Bahrain although the Saudi leadership may have to tread a bit carefully given the Shiite uprising as part of the Arab Spring which was suppressed with the help of Saudi military intervention. [Post edited 1 Mar 14:17]
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 15:09 - Mar 1 with 1095 views | Tambu |
The only places getting attacked don't have the right banking system. Anything else is a smoke screen. PNAC . Do some reading. |  | | |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 16:59 - Mar 1 with 994 views | ElderGrizzly |
Just openly admitting they have no plan
And the reason they went in, is also a lie
[Post edited 1 Mar 17:02]
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| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 17:16 - Mar 1 with 955 views | DJR |
Leaving aside the fact that the US and Iran were talking before the bombings, I wonder if the following means Turmp is prepared to do a Venezuela in the sense of toppling those at the top (Maduro) but entering into some sort of arrangement with those below (Delcy Rodriguez). In any event, maybe it is a sign that he is starting to lose interest as he always seems to do, having probably achieved his and Israel's military objectives.
Donald Trump said on Sunday that Iran’s new leadership wants to talk to him and that he has agreed, according to an interview with The Atlantic.
“They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them. They should have done it sooner. They should have given what was very practical and easy to do sooner. They waited too long,” Trump said in an interview from his Florida residence. | | | |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 17:55 - Mar 1 with 877 views | Camul123 |
| So Trump attacked Iran on behalf of the Saudis and Israel on 17:16 - Mar 1 by DJR |
Leaving aside the fact that the US and Iran were talking before the bombings, I wonder if the following means Turmp is prepared to do a Venezuela in the sense of toppling those at the top (Maduro) but entering into some sort of arrangement with those below (Delcy Rodriguez). In any event, maybe it is a sign that he is starting to lose interest as he always seems to do, having probably achieved his and Israel's military objectives.
Donald Trump said on Sunday that Iran’s new leadership wants to talk to him and that he has agreed, according to an interview with The Atlantic.
“They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them. They should have done it sooner. They should have given what was very practical and easy to do sooner. They waited too long,” Trump said in an interview from his Florida residence. |
Certainly looks like an opportunistic assassination of Iran's leader and others accompanied by lots of theatrical fireworks.
Not much sign of there being more to the plan than that. | | | |
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