| Points required to achieve Promotion 21:27 - Mar 18 with 2630 views | King_of_Portman_Rd |
Back in the 23/24 season run in I crunched the numbers of points totals finishing in the top 3 in the championship (starting from 08/09 season)
Back then to finish 2nd the average points tally was 87.. obviously with ourselves in 24 and Burnley last season that has risen slightly. The average points tally to finish 2nd over the past 16 seasons is now 89.25
The lowest points total for finishing 2nd is 83 points. This has happened twice in the past 16 seasons 08/09 and more recently in 19/20 (every season since then however has seen the team in 2nd achieving 90 points, except 21/22 where 88points was enough)
Given that Boro, Millwall & Ourselves still have to play each other and no one is really gripping this it looks set to be a close run in where 88 points should be enough (though probably going to be a bit lower and I’d suggest 86 might do it this year)
That would mean 20 points from our remaining 9 games to get 88…
to get 86 points would require 2ppg, certainly achievable.
The average to win the league is 94.5 (however 6 of the past 8 seasons have been higher than 94 points) I also can’t see us getting 90+ this season from where we are and how we’ve performed to this point.
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 21:38 - Mar 18 with 2405 views | Illinoisblue |
Feels like we need 7 wins from 9 games to get top two. Or maybe 6 wins if two of them are against Milwall and Boro. |  |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 21:43 - Mar 18 with 2365 views | Blue_Heath |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 21:38 - Mar 18 by Illinoisblue |
Feels like we need 7 wins from 9 games to get top two. Or maybe 6 wins if two of them are against Milwall and Boro. |
I'd agree 7 from 9 and we'd be incredibly unlucky not to but if we can win all our home games 6 may be enough.
Therefore win at yella filth away plus one another preferably Charlton, draw at WBA, we'll get nothing at Southampton. |  |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 22:19 - Mar 18 with 2206 views | Illinoisblue |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 21:43 - Mar 18 by Blue_Heath |
I'd agree 7 from 9 and we'd be incredibly unlucky not to but if we can win all our home games 6 may be enough.
Therefore win at yella filth away plus one another preferably Charlton, draw at WBA, we'll get nothing at Southampton. |
Just clocked that Milwall have 3 home and 5 away games. They like us will be relying on quality away days to get over the line. Boro 4 and 4. Fk it, who knows what will happen. Let’s beat Milwall and then stew over the table for a couple weeks! | |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 23:12 - Mar 18 with 2048 views | Wacko |
I'm sorry but this is totally wrong. To calculate the points needed to finish second, it's the 3rd place points total + 1 point. To add up all the 2nd place points totals is meaningless and a waste of time.
Since the 08/09 season, the average to beat 3rd place (by one point) and come 2nd is exactly 85 points. | |
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| 87 points for second. 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. LETS DO THIS on 23:18 - Mar 18 with 2019 views | unstableblue |
2 wins ahead of the international break would be massive.
With Norwich away and Boro home and saints away - beating Millwall feels necessary. |  |
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| 87 points for second. 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. LETS DO THIS on 23:38 - Mar 18 with 1963 views | skinnybob72 |
| 87 points for second. 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. LETS DO THIS on 23:18 - Mar 18 by unstableblue |
2 wins ahead of the international break would be massive.
With Norwich away and Boro home and saints away - beating Millwall feels necessary. |
2 wins would be absolutely massive when we only have 1 game before the break…😂 | | | |
| 87 points for second. 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. LETS DO THIS on 00:15 - Mar 19 with 1899 views | unstableblue |
| 87 points for second. 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. LETS DO THIS on 23:38 - Mar 18 by skinnybob72 |
2 wins would be absolutely massive when we only have 1 game before the break…😂 |
Ahem!
I stand corrected
This makes Millwall even more MASSIVE | |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 06:28 - Mar 19 with 1696 views | Blue_Heath |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 22:19 - Mar 18 by Illinoisblue |
Just clocked that Milwall have 3 home and 5 away games. They like us will be relying on quality away days to get over the line. Boro 4 and 4. Fk it, who knows what will happen. Let’s beat Milwall and then stew over the table for a couple weeks! |
We must win our home games starting Saturday as two of them are 6 pointers. That leaves us needing 2 wins from 5 away games plus a draw which ought to be enough, if not lessons need to be learned from signing too many players too late as ultimately the start of the season will have cost us. | |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 08:09 - Mar 19 with 1431 views | Len_Brennan |
85 points may well be enough, but the other factor that might be crucial yet is goal difference. We are currently 6 goals better off than Middlesbrough, but a couple of 4-0 results for them, which they can run up from time to time, could see that disappear. It's important for us to keep that distance in our favour to the end.
Thankfully Millwall are well behind us (-19) in that department. | |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 08:41 - Mar 19 with 1348 views | Steve_M |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 08:09 - Mar 19 by Len_Brennan |
85 points may well be enough, but the other factor that might be crucial yet is goal difference. We are currently 6 goals better off than Middlesbrough, but a couple of 4-0 results for them, which they can run up from time to time, could see that disappear. It's important for us to keep that distance in our favour to the end.
Thankfully Millwall are well behind us (-19) in that department. |
Beating them 3-0 at home, like we did with Coventry, will help that though. [Post edited 19 Mar 9:06]
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 08:54 - Mar 19 with 1292 views | Herbivore |
Win our home games, win at Charlton, Pompey, Norwich and WBA. Maybe just a point at Saints. Job done. |  |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 09:18 - Mar 19 with 1221 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 06:28 - Mar 19 by Blue_Heath |
We must win our home games starting Saturday as two of them are 6 pointers. That leaves us needing 2 wins from 5 away games plus a draw which ought to be enough, if not lessons need to be learned from signing too many players too late as ultimately the start of the season will have cost us. |
If the Millwall game is a draw it isn't a disaster if we get the wins elsewhere.
It is losses in six-pointers that really matter, as we are the side who Millwall need to make ground on (pretty much insurmountable goal difference lead and a game in hand) not the other way around.
If we draw one and win one v Millwall and Boro (preferably winning against Boro) then we will be in a very good position. | | | |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 09:31 - Mar 19 with 1175 views | GlasgowBlue |
When I did the league calculator I had us finishing on 91 and Boro finishing on 87. So I guess 88 is the magic number. 87 if we maintain our better goal difference. But Boro have reduced that recently. |  |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 09:47 - Mar 19 with 1129 views | _CliveBaker_ |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 23:12 - Mar 18 by Wacko |
I'm sorry but this is totally wrong. To calculate the points needed to finish second, it's the 3rd place points total + 1 point. To add up all the 2nd place points totals is meaningless and a waste of time.
Since the 08/09 season, the average to beat 3rd place (by one point) and come 2nd is exactly 85 points. |
I think looking at historic averages generally is a bit pointless tbh. There are lots of variables like the extent to which the top 2 are taking points off others, and the competitiveness of the lower sides. The best data set is surely this season and how well the competitor set are performing and accruing points, I don't see any value in using a league table from 15 years ago.
The 'mini league' between us, Boro and Millwall will to a large degree depend on who wins the games between ourselves (if anyone). If any club wins both they will be in the box seat. If we win both we're either 1 point above Boro and 6 above Millwall with a game in hand over both of them, or 3 above Boro and 5 above Millwall with a GIH over both, or 4 above Boro and 3 above Millwall with a GIH (all depending on the result between those 2). We then have 7 other games to protect a lead they need to overturn in 6.
Huge game for us Saturday tbh, and if Boro drop points at Blackburn that's a big bonus. [Post edited 19 Mar 9:50]
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| 87 points for second. 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. LETS DO THIS on 10:02 - Mar 19 with 1061 views | baxterbasics |
| 87 points for second. 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. LETS DO THIS on 00:15 - Mar 19 by unstableblue |
Ahem!
I stand corrected
This makes Millwall even more MASSIVE |
Our rivals all have very winnable games this weekend too.
Middlesbrough at Blackburn
Coventry at Swansea
Hull host Wednesday
Southampton host Oxford
Whilst not in the mix, also Nodge at Charlton.
Can't see many points being dropped in that list. A win at PR may be needed just to keep up. |  |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:06 - Mar 19 with 1047 views | GlasgowBlue |
Ben Bloom has just tweeted this. Which made me feel sick.
although I'm going to look at the number of games left for each team and base their points total on that number rather than 10 games. Hopefully it will look better. [Post edited 19 Mar 10:08]
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| 87 points for second. 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. LETS DO THIS on 10:08 - Mar 19 with 1023 views | _CliveBaker_ |
| 87 points for second. 6 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. LETS DO THIS on 10:02 - Mar 19 by baxterbasics |
Our rivals all have very winnable games this weekend too.
Middlesbrough at Blackburn
Coventry at Swansea
Hull host Wednesday
Southampton host Oxford
Whilst not in the mix, also Nodge at Charlton.
Can't see many points being dropped in that list. A win at PR may be needed just to keep up. |
I don't think Hull or Southampton are rivals tbh, I can't see either of them finishing in the top 2 and at worst we're landing in the playoffs.
I'm not dismissing the chances of a Cov wobble, but that's also unlikely I would think. 9 points is going to be too much to make up even with the game in hand.
To my mind there are only 2 rivals standing between us and automatic promotion, Boro and Millwall. We need to win on Saturday, anything else favourable at Ewood would be a big bonus. | | | |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:15 - Mar 19 with 993 views | SaleAway |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:06 - Mar 19 by GlasgowBlue |
Ben Bloom has just tweeted this. Which made me feel sick.
although I'm going to look at the number of games left for each team and base their points total on that number rather than 10 games. Hopefully it will look better. [Post edited 19 Mar 10:08]
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If you do it off 6 game form, we finish comfortably second... so really none of this matters. We just need to do the business. | |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:18 - Mar 19 with 986 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:15 - Mar 19 by SaleAway |
If you do it off 6 game form, we finish comfortably second... so really none of this matters. We just need to do the business. |
So if you base the form across the same number of games remaining, rather than 10 games we get
1.Coventry 8 games 2.37 ppg = 96
2. Ipswich 9 games 2 ppg = 86
3. Millwall 8 games 2 ppg = 86
4. Boro 8 games 1.5 ppg = 82
5. Southampton 2.5 ppg = 80
6. Wrexham 1.63 ppg = 73 | |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:22 - Mar 19 with 974 views | Smoresy |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:06 - Mar 19 by GlasgowBlue |
Ben Bloom has just tweeted this. Which made me feel sick.
although I'm going to look at the number of games left for each team and base their points total on that number rather than 10 games. Hopefully it will look better. [Post edited 19 Mar 10:08]
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It will because Boro took 6 points from games 9 & 10, Millwall 4 points, us 1. We're at the point where extending or shortening your "form" table just a little can make a big impact. With three teams left fighting for one spot, dwindling games, and the competitive nature of this league, we're very close to the stage when such projections carry little meaning really. | | | |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:33 - Mar 19 with 944 views | Meadowlark |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 23:12 - Mar 18 by Wacko |
I'm sorry but this is totally wrong. To calculate the points needed to finish second, it's the 3rd place points total + 1 point. To add up all the 2nd place points totals is meaningless and a waste of time.
Since the 08/09 season, the average to beat 3rd place (by one point) and come 2nd is exactly 85 points. |
Good point. Well made. |  | | |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:45 - Mar 19 with 896 views | Herbivore |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:18 - Mar 19 by GlasgowBlue |
So if you base the form across the same number of games remaining, rather than 10 games we get
1.Coventry 8 games 2.37 ppg = 96
2. Ipswich 9 games 2 ppg = 86
3. Millwall 8 games 2 ppg = 86
4. Boro 8 games 1.5 ppg = 82
5. Southampton 2.5 ppg = 80
6. Wrexham 1.63 ppg = 73 |
Millwall should have 84 points under that calculation. | |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:51 - Mar 19 with 864 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:45 - Mar 19 by Herbivore |
Millwall should have 84 points under that calculation. |
You're right. | |
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| Points required to achieve Promotion on 11:10 - Mar 19 with 816 views | SuffolkPunchFC |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 10:22 - Mar 19 by Smoresy |
It will because Boro took 6 points from games 9 & 10, Millwall 4 points, us 1. We're at the point where extending or shortening your "form" table just a little can make a big impact. With three teams left fighting for one spot, dwindling games, and the competitive nature of this league, we're very close to the stage when such projections carry little meaning really. |
"With three teams left fighting for one spot, dwindling games, and the competitive nature of this league, we're very close to the stage when such projections carry little meaning really."
100% this.
If we win 2 on the spin, and both Boro and Coventry lose both, we're in second with a game in hand, 3 points behind Coventry and 4 ahead of Boro.
On the other hand, we lose 2 on the spin and Hull win both and Millwall get at least 1 point, and we're down in 5th.
It's down to comparative game week results now, and it WILL twist and turn. | | | |
| Points required to achieve Promotion on 14:11 - Mar 20 with 450 views | SaleAway |
Friday afternoon boredom kicked in. I looked at the league h2h record of ITFC under McKenna against all our remaining opponents...
P 31
W14
D12
L5
PPG 1.75
puts us on about 84 points.... so we're going to have to improve on past performance.
we've played all of these opponents at least 3 times in the league under KM, but no more than 5. Our worst record is 4/9 vs 3 opponents ( NCFC, Middlesbrough, West Brom), and our best is 7/9 vs 2 opponents ( Millwall, QPR).
None of this tells us anything other than that you can't predict how the next few weeks are going to go. All we can do is get behind them fully.
COYB! | |
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